Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-09-2017, 09:11 PM   #18651
OvertlySexual
old hand
 
OvertlySexual's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 1,515
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I don't think the problem is the downswing so much as the bankroll. In December, I also had a $7k downswing, but I was comfortable with my bankroll and it wasn't that big of a deal. OTOH, I have gone through other downswings while not being properly rolled and it's grating and unbelievably stressful.

Letting it go for a couple of weeks until you clear your head up and put in some study is the best solution if you can afford it. But if you can't and you depend on the money, take a couple of days off, move down stakes and go in with the mindset of being as being as mentally tough as possible. Easier said than done obviously. Keep reminding yourself that the only thing that matters is making the right decision.
OvertlySexual is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2017, 09:29 PM   #18652
Shuffle
plotting my return
 
Shuffle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 13,916
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thanks for the responses. I take money out of my roll all the time, but I've kept it between $10k-$25k for a few years now. Whenever I go on a bad run and get under 10k, I drop down for a bit, take a break etc. Never went below 8k the entire time. Didn't work these last few weeks obviously.
Shuffle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2017, 09:42 PM   #18653
adrianpk
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Posts: 392
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Well boys, finally saved up about 1500$ for a BR for part time bankroll in 1/3.
I play to play Friday/Saturday maybe Thursday. All nights of course.

So far Im doing OK Down 60$ over 17hours, not bad i think. Gonna start to tighten up.

I think im going to be buying in with 250$. But so far im buying in 100bbs and its going well. The reason I want to buy in for 250$ is for BR purposes. Maybe even 200.

Any insight on this?
adrianpk is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2017, 09:43 PM   #18654
spikeraw22
The Situation
 
spikeraw22's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: SB is the new BTN
Posts: 8,731
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I suggest putting $100 online and staying off the real life tables for a good long time.
spikeraw22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2017, 10:06 PM   #18655
meale
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
meale's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 9,840
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuffle View Post
Thanks for the responses. I take money out of my roll all the time, but I've kept it between $10k-$25k for a few years now. Whenever I go on a bad run and get under 10k, I drop down for a bit, take a break etc. Never went below 8k the entire time. Didn't work these last few weeks obviously.
There's your problem imo. I take it you're playing professionally? You should have 10k min for 2/5 imo as a bankroll exclusively. Which means you should have maybe another 10k for x months life expenses. To operate on 10k for life and poker roll seems very risky. I'd also suggest saving some % of winnings to increase your net worth with. If you're fluctuating 10-25k and not saving any money, variance will fk you up and how are you going to improve/move up/get out?
meale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2017, 10:06 PM   #18656
johnny_on_the_spot
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnny_on_the_spot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: S-Mart
Posts: 10,921
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
I suggest putting $100 online and staying off the real life tables for a good long time.


Most should do this regardless. There is no substitute for the shear amount of hands played online. Online and live obv play differently, but transitioning concepts from one to the other isn't super complex and any winning player should be able to do it with some degree of success
johnny_on_the_spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2017, 10:18 PM   #18657
rickyt88
adept
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 834
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've heard mdu had 12evbb/100 win rate at plo500 zoom does anybody have a link?

Sent from my SM-G850W using Tapatalk
rickyt88 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2017, 10:21 PM   #18658
meale
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
meale's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 9,840
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickyt88 View Post
I've heard mdu had 12evbb/100 win rate at plo500 zoom does anybody have a link?

Sent from my SM-G850W using Tapatalk
Over what sample? Seems highly unlikely that would be a 200k+ hand sample.
meale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-09-2017, 10:22 PM   #18659
rickyt88
adept
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 834
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm not sure it was posted to 2+2 but i cant find it. I just realized thread was for live cash I'm on the phone I only saw official win rate.

Sent from my SM-G850W using Tapatalk
rickyt88 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 03:56 AM   #18660
johnnyBuz
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnnyBuz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Beast Coast
Posts: 7,092
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I am a huge BR nit. When I quit my job to play (temporarily) full-time (lol terrible life decision) I took ~$10k out of my BR and moved it into my LR/investment account. I then went on an immediate $15k downswing (3k at 10/10, 12k at 2/5) and was like "oh **** this is what people meant by variance/down swings."

I've then spent the next 14ish months grinding the **** out of games I should be easily considered "over rolled" for. And you know what? It doesn't really bother me. I grinded through 1000+ hours of break even in 2016 and still booked my biggest winning year to date, paid my bills/expenses and gradually grew my BR.

Now I'm in a position where I never have to worry about my BR again and once I get back to full time employment will be back to playing the biggest and most profitable games on the reg. Was I frustrated that I wasn't playing as big of games as I felt I could beat skill-wise last year? Absolutely 100%. But am I better off for minimizing my risk and positioning myself for the next 20+ years of my poker career? Yah I'd say so.
johnnyBuz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 04:10 AM   #18661
Shuffle
plotting my return
 
Shuffle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 13,916
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

First of all, I want to say sincerely, thank you for your kind posts everyone. I drank 2/3 a bottle of Knob Creek tonight, and as a long time regular, I realize this is turning into a BBV post at this point. I drank 2/3 a bottle of Knob Creek, and I'm really drunk right now, I'm sorry. Pray this never happens to you. I mentioned how I was on a historically bad downswing, so i dropped down to 1/2 at 8.5k
I do dip into bankroll often, but I did set up a rainy day fund on the side. I dropped down to 1/2 at $8.5k, as per my usual discipine, and I'm at a 25 BI downswing since.

I mentioned the first buy-in tonight, and I played really tight after that. Won a single hand in 5 hours (other than raise/taking down the blinds and limps) and got moved to the main game just before closing time. Remember this is 1/2.

Crazy af gambler straddles in the BB for $65. Limps around to hero in MP who has AQo with 200 something behind. Naturally i shove. Guy wakes up with KK in LP behind and I'm felt. That's 2 buy-ins.

In this game, you can straddle any amount in the BB, and up to $10 OTB. When he is OTB, villain straddles and Hero doesn't have anything and folds. Even though I'm stuck, I want to play solid.

Next time villain is in the UTG, he dead straddles $500. Hero has nothing and folds, but another player felts him with AQss.

Two hands later, villain straddles max $10 OTB. Hero limps in $10 UTG with 99. There are 2-3 callers, and villain makes it $50 with his straddle OTB. He just dead straddles $500 UTG and raised his last BTN straddle, so I shove 99 here. He has JJ and that's 3 buyins gone. Time to hit the showers at that point.
Shuffle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 04:13 AM   #18662
Shuffle
plotting my return
 
Shuffle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 13,916
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I realize this is pathetic posting at this point.
Those of you who have been around, please forgive me. A man just reaches his breaking point at some time. Pray it never happens to you, that you have success in this life. Good luck to all at the tables.
Shuffle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 08:04 AM   #18663
rickyt88
adept
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 834
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Don't give up man

Sent from my SM-G850W using Tapatalk
rickyt88 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 08:53 AM   #18664
spikeraw22
The Situation
 
spikeraw22's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: SB is the new BTN
Posts: 8,731
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

No actually you should give up. I mean that sincerely. Stop playing. You're head will straighten itself out but you need to take a break. Every second you spend at the table is costing you money right now.
spikeraw22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 08:58 AM   #18665
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I dont care what anyone says. If you lose 25 buy ins playing live. You're doing lots of things wrong. Its not just run bad. Its like alcoholism. Admitting it is half the battle.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 09:29 AM   #18666
nicname
grinder
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Big 12
Posts: 627
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Does anyone else not see/ agree with the point of keeping a separate poker and life roll. I mean, just get enough money where a few losses here and there won't matter to you, right?

In reality there isn't such thing as a poker roll. If life calls your poker roll will be used no matter what.
nicname is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 09:48 AM   #18667
Dizzyqtp
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Dizzyqtp's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 7,384
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by nicname View Post
Does anyone else not see/ agree with the point of keeping a separate poker and life roll. I mean, just get enough money where a few losses here and there won't matter to you, right?

In reality there isn't such thing as a poker roll. If life calls your poker roll will be used no matter what.
yeah, this. I keep track of what my poker "roll" is theoretically, but I don't separate it from my other $/savings/investments in any way besides just always having enough cash readily available to play.
Dizzyqtp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 09:59 AM   #18668
Petrucci
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 4,265
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I dont care what anyone says. If you lose 25 buy ins playing live. You're doing lots of things wrong. Its not just run bad. Its like alcoholism. Admitting it is half the battle.

I totally agree, even though its harsh. Losing 25 buyins in low stakes live games isnt just "runbad" or a "downswing".

I would say that for winning players at 1-2 or 2-5, downswings bigger than 10 buyins happens pretty rarely. Sure it happens, but when where talking more than 20 buyins chances are skyhigh that you have huge leaks and flaws in your game imo.
Petrucci is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 10:04 AM   #18669
johnny_on_the_spot
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnny_on_the_spot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: S-Mart
Posts: 10,921
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by nicname View Post
Does anyone else not see/ agree with the point of keeping a separate poker and life roll. I mean, just get enough money where a few losses here and there won't matter to you, right?



In reality there isn't such thing as a poker roll. If life calls your poker roll will be used no matter what.


It's fairly innocuous. If someone wants a poker roll and a life roll, more power too them. If someone wants just their total liquid assets as a roll, more power to them. Whatever makes someone's brain think less about bad stuff and focus more on table stuff is what they should do. I separate, because that works for me. If someone wants to do it another way, great. I look at what people write about these subject more as suggestions and ideas rather than hard fast rules that need to be obeyed.

Tl;dr: find what works best for you and don't worry about the rest of the noise
johnny_on_the_spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 10:45 AM   #18670
Shuffle
plotting my return
 
Shuffle's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 13,916
Heart re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Petrucci View Post
I totally agree, even though its harsh. Losing 25 buyins in low stakes live games isnt just "runbad" or a "downswing".

I would say that for winning players at 1-2 or 2-5, downswings bigger than 10 buyins happens pretty rarely. Sure it happens, but when where talking more than 20 buyins chances are skyhigh that you have huge leaks and flaws in your game imo.
I am not a world class player. I make mistakes in hands. I think I am fairly honest with my game and even though there are no stakes higher than 2/5 around, and I'm not trying to be a millionaire anymore, I feel like I still put in work at my game. 2+2 strat is not useful anymore like it was when I was starting, but I do follow Doug Polk, Alec Torelli, have my copy of Let There Be Range, and talk hands with players I know and respect.

I was already at the end of my tolerance prior to this past weekend, and I've been doing this for 7 years. I know what downswings are like, even extreme ones. I lost 3 buyins Friday night, and I'm happy with the way I played every hand. I went to another casino and lost 2 more BIs, and again I feel like I played well. On Saturday, I was not happy with my play losing the first 1.5 buyins, and it was definitely my fault. The other 1.5 buyins, I could do nothing about. Sunday, I lost 4 buyins. The first three were standard. The last one I donked off on tilt. Last night, I lost 3 more buy-ins and I feel like I grinded my ass off for 5 hours and played well and won exactly one hand, while misplaying another one which did not cause me to go felt, but it was still money lost. So if by 15 buyins since Friday, where 2.5 of them were through bad play, and I misplayed one other hand, you mean huge leaks, then yes you are right.

I do absolutely need a break at this point. I have the worst hangover of my life right now. 2/3 of a bottle of whiskey in one night will do that to you. I know we all as poker players like to ***** about how bad we run, but I am confident everyone reading this, or certainly nearly everyone reading this, has never been in a downswing like this. I havent been up more than $20 or so in about 10 sessions. Just let it be a lesson that variance can be absurd, more extreme than you can imagine. If you think you have a big enough roll, make it bigger. Keep saving. If you think you have enough cash set aside for non-poker related stuff, you probably don't. Keep saving. You may not need the extra cushion, but if you play long enough, you probably will.
Shuffle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 10:58 AM   #18671
whereisit
newbie
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 47
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Shuffle, I played full time 1-2/1-3/2-5 and 1-2-5 PLO for several thousand hours over the course of two years, and in hold 'em my biggest downswing was ~10 BIs. I think if you're dropping 25 BIs at 1-2NL you need to take some time off, do some reading and strategy review, watch some winning players on twitch, and get in some volume at low stakes NL online. The mentality that you approach the game with needs to be one of confidence and not doubt, and at this point you seem to be full of doubt. Good luck, hopefully you can get things turned around eventually.

Just read your post above me- I don't know what you consider 'standard' or whatever, but it sounds like the losing is really effecting you and there are probably some situations where you misplayed but have some type of strategy ingrained in your head that is not ideal for the game you are playing.
whereisit is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 11:04 AM   #18672
Petrucci
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 4,265
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sure man, and you have a valid point (alongside other posters like DGAF in the mid high stakes forum) that variance can be more horrible than the majority of players are capable of understanding.

I havent logged all my hours since i started out live for like 5-6 years ago, but i have played a pretty decent sample. Probably like 2000 hours or something around that. And i am sure i havent experienced close to the worst downswing possible.

Ive been through some rough stretches for sure, but not anywhere close 20+ buyins downswing.

And like you say, its time to take a break away from the table. If you dont its just gonna continue to lose you money like Spike pointed out. Its literally impossible to approach the game with the right mindset, not to mention play your A game with the state of mind youre experiencing right now. Ive taken weeks away from the tables before when i needed it,wich did wonderful things for me and i came back stronger than ever and more mentally balanced than ever,so just do it man- there is no way around it.
Petrucci is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 11:06 AM   #18673
Petrucci
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 4,265
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by whereisit View Post
Shuffle, I played full time 1-2/1-3/2-5 and 1-2-5 PLO for several thousand hours over the course of two years, and in hold 'em my biggest downswing was ~10 BIs. I think if you're dropping 25 BIs at 1-2NL you need to take some time off, do some reading and strategy review, watch some winning players on twitch, and get in some volume at low stakes NL online. The mentality that you approach the game with needs to be one of confidence and not doubt, and at this point you seem to be full of doubt. Good luck, hopefully you can get things turned around eventually.

Just read your post above me- I don't know what you consider 'standard' or whatever, but it sounds like the losing is really effecting you and there are probably some situations where you misplayed but have some type of strategy ingrained in your head that is not ideal for the game you are playing.

This. What happens is you get blind after a while, and youre probably having bias when youre reviewing your own plays. It may need other fresh eyes of a winning player to reveal your current blind spots.
Petrucci is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 11:50 AM   #18674
squid face
ChatThreadPrez
 
squid face's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: grabbin c-notes from the money tree
Posts: 10,253
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

yo shuffle - hang in there mang. I am currently in my longest breakeven stretch in several years. It is exceptionally painful cuz I have lowered my volume and am not cranking out hours nearly as hard as I have in prior years.

A couple of days ago I hit my "breaking point". First hand of the night dealt AK button straddle to 10 caller I go 40 2 callers orig limper goes 350 (Im like lol oh kay) me arrin for 500 effective hes got the 10 6 and wins. I spend the next 3 hours losing in the silliest ways imaginable. I lose 2k and say, "I am done for several days" I need to clear my head. This was sunday. I have not played since. I may or may not play today. My head is getting better...but I am not 100%

Recognizing when you have your sht together v not having it together is just as important as getting hours imho. I have spent the last 236 hours losing in the most fuct up ways I have seen in quite some time...and that sht takes its toll.

Go out and treat yourself to some fun...whatever it may be. Take some time off and reflect. then when you are ready come back strong
squid face is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-10-2017, 12:08 PM   #18675
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,367
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Shuffle, I'm sorry that you're having a tough time, but that is not the right time to try to FPS your way out of it. Play a low variance strat for a while.
+1

I think I would nit it up to the extreme just to get your feet under you. You really need confidence to play speculative hands / tricky situations, and right now that confidence is probably at an all-time low, so simply avoid those situations.

GgoodluckG


Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I dont care what anyone says. If you lose 25 buy ins playing live. You're doing lots of things wrong. Its not just run bad. Its like alcoholism. Admitting it is half the battle.
Yeah, that would probably be my guess too. However, it took me 1800 hours until I went on a 9.5 BI downswing (up until that point I hadn't even officially been on a 5 BI downswing), so that was a bit of a shock. I still haven't done worse than a 9.5 BI downswing in 3376 hours of 1/3 NL, so a 25 BI downswing does seem a little out there.

However, the more I play and see (not just with my results but others at the table), the more I begin to see the variance beast the truly lurks in this game (both positive and negative). My guess is that if you play enough, there's an outside possibility you could encounter some horror like this while not playing too terribly bad.

GgoodluckG


Quote:
Originally Posted by adrianpk View Post
Well boys, finally saved up about 1500$ for a BR for part time bankroll in 1/3.
I play to play Friday/Saturday maybe Thursday. All nights of course.

So far Im doing OK Down 60$ over 17hours, not bad i think. Gonna start to tighten up.

I think im going to be buying in with 250$. But so far im buying in 100bbs and its going well. The reason I want to buy in for 250$ is for BR purposes. Maybe even 200.

Any insight on this?
Keep in mind that results over 17 hours is fairly meaningless.

Assuming you just play poker for enjoyment and that your poker BR could be replenished by your job if you go bust, no harm in sitting in the game for entertainment purposes.

If you're just getting your feet wet at live NL, I would probably recommend sitting with a $200 stack at 1/3 NL, which is a very easy stack to play. The larger your stack becomes, the more difficult poker is for non-experienced players. As your experience / BR grows and you become more comfortable then you can consider whether a deeper stack strategy is more advantageous to you.

GgoodluckG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:41 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive