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Old 04-15-2017, 11:34 AM   #18551
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Search this thread for "95% confidence interval" and input your observed results to the formula. It will give you a plus or minus from your observed results that your "true winrate" falls somewhere within 95% of the time. More hours tightens that range a ton.
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Old 04-15-2017, 11:39 AM   #18552
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joker of Poker View Post
I was up $48 over 19 hours at 1/2 this year, I only get to play live a few times per month. I decided to step up to 2/5 last night, I short stacked with $200, did so well, played all night, and won $1350! so my winrate now is like super high lol variance
They're respecting your raises obviously.
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Old 04-15-2017, 12:27 PM   #18553
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
They're respecting your raises obviously.
Ha! I used this line the other night to a guy. He was diarrhea of the mouth, super-poker lingo, constantly dropping mentions of playing higher stakes etc. At one point he says to me (apparently he thought I was decent enough to undestand):

That's why I'd just assume play 2-5 or higher -- too many recreational players in these games to really beat the game.

It said, "Yeah, have to move up to where they respect your raises."

Then he added something in about the rake.

I was entertained.
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Old 04-15-2017, 06:56 PM   #18554
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by nicname View Post
Ha! I used this line the other night to a guy. He was diarrhea of the mouth, super-poker lingo, constantly dropping mentions of playing higher stakes etc. At one point he says to me (apparently he thought I was decent enough to undestand):



That's why I'd just assume play 2-5 or higher -- too many recreational players in these games to really beat the game.



It said, "Yeah, have to move up to where they respect your raises."



Then he added something in about the rake.



I was entertained.


"Hey, I understand you probably can't stop talking, but if you could stop talking to me, I would really appreciate that. Thanks."
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Old 04-15-2017, 10:20 PM   #18555
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thanks for all the responses guys! Just binked an $80 buyin $5k GTD today! Must be forum rungood����
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Old 04-16-2017, 06:26 AM   #18556
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

f 2017

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Old 04-16-2017, 08:24 PM   #18557
DanSmith91
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half stacking live 1/2 roll?

I am currently trying to save for a live roll, had 5k in mind, was wondering tho,..maybe I could start with a smaller roll and just half stack. Is the varience too high for half stacking and should i just wait until i have 20ish reg buyins? what would you guys recommend my roll be if I want to go half tho
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Old 04-16-2017, 10:30 PM   #18558
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Re: half stacking live 1/2 roll?

Quote:
Originally Posted by DanSmith91 View Post
I am currently trying to save for a live roll, had 5k in mind, was wondering tho,..maybe I could start with a smaller roll and just half stack. Is the varience too high for half stacking and should i just wait until i have 20ish reg buyins? what would you guys recommend my roll be if I want to go half tho
Good question. It really depends on your level of experience and your expectations. If you're a rec player looking to get your feet wet, you don't need a 5k bankroll, you need a budget to play. Set aside a little bit of cash every paycheck, or withdraw from your account what you could comfortably lose, and go play. You don't need 5k to learn/enjoy the game. If you're looking to grind and be profitable off of a roll, then 20BI is about the minimum you'd want to go. I do not recommend half stacking, as it puts you at a disadvantage to be profitable if you're sitting in a good game and start with half of what most people are buying in with.

Good luck.
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Old 04-17-2017, 06:11 AM   #18559
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Re: half stacking live 1/2 roll?

Agreed, there is a ton of information missing such as your motives, your risk tolerance, what a "half stack" is at your $1/2 game, etc. If you're not thinking of these factors (or not thinking to mention them in your thread about BR management) then you might not need to concern yourself with BR management.
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Old 04-17-2017, 08:24 AM   #18560
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Re: half stacking live 1/2 roll?

If you have a job, then you don't need much of a BR at all just take some shots and if you bust just wait for your next paycheck. If you're talking about playing full time (please don't), you need much more than 20 buy ins imo. Coming from someone with experience in both situations.
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Old 04-17-2017, 08:37 AM   #18561
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Re: half stacking live 1/2 roll?

Good stuff here ...

When I first started I only bought in for $120 .. then $160 ... then $220. Now I typically only buy in full ($3-400). I see no reason that you can't enjoy playing and build up a BR with a short(er) stack. Please don't dip below $100 as I think you will be nothing but a target.

You obviously need to be 'more' aware of your spots and very well will lose value since you 'should' be over-shoving some Flops and Turns when your SPR gets reduced in a hurry.

I only bring 3-4 BIs to the room, I didn't really care how much they were. Now, I typically will top-off as soon as I drop by more then $100 below table max. I've seen too many times where a player will get coolered and nurse a short stack only to miss out on some big value when they get into another good spot ... unless it's your last BI, then just ride it out. GL
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Old 04-17-2017, 01:39 PM   #18562
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Re: half stacking live 1/2 roll?

Where I play 1/2 is usually 300 Max. I think you can safely play a $200 stack at these games and rarely miss out on the extra value.

The whole "buy in full, always top up" thing perplexed me for some time when I was starting out. If you are an inexperienced 1/2 player you simply are not going to get it in ahead often enough to make buying full profitable. Buying in short in this way protects an. inexperienced player. More importantly, it helps a TON at creating good SPRs for overpair/toptop type hands which play themselves. And really these are pretty much the only hands you should be playing when first starting out.

After some time under our belts, decent thinking 1/2 players all prefer to play deep primarily because, as others have said, we see all too often folks missing value when they hit that perfect hand. It also allows us to make more moves, to play more speculative hands, and it helps your image a TON if you have a big stack on a 1/2 table. When you are starting out, you can't really take advantage of any of this.

I am of course speaking of live poker only - I don't play on the Internets due to the law in my state and I certainly don't pretend to think I could play .05/.10 profitably.
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Old 04-17-2017, 05:49 PM   #18563
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Re: half stacking live 1/2 roll?

A lot of good answers ITT. I agree with the above, $200 into a $300 max game is light enough to have some extra buy ins (say 5 instead of 3 and change if your budget is 1k), but also not too light to be sitting with $150 at $300 max. I agree that $150 is simply too light and you're A. A target, and B. Lose 1 pot of any substantial value and now you're under $100 and short stacking.
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Old 04-17-2017, 06:32 PM   #18564
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

grunchy opinion: $200 is fine for 1/2, but i'd never play 1/3 with less than $300 regardless of min, and that's doubly true if the 1/3 is 500max

free tip: if you want more chips for only $20, buy $220 (including 20 whites/ones) for 1/2
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Old 04-17-2017, 06:51 PM   #18565
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

What does it mean to be a target and why is this a bad thing?
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Old 04-18-2017, 11:30 AM   #18566
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by masterxed View Post
Does anybody here know what an average winrate is for PLO in terms of BB/hour? I understand holdem is 10+/BB is considered very good. But what about PLO?

I don't see too many PLO players post often and I don't check forums (very rarely), so any help or insight on this would be appreciated.

Also, in regards to winrates... I think the best way to determine if you are a winning player is if Villain or another player had your same exact hand, how would they play it differently and who will extract more value? Would you win more or lose less with the same hand?

See in PLO, there are countless of ways to play different hands, so if I were to answer my question, I know for sure I would play my hands differently than most players. I'm not just talking about the cooler pots where you run top set into nut flush draw or any of that, but primarily the smaller and medium pots where you could have more control over the outcome.
Man, I would have no clue how to determine true winrate in live plo. Hold em is hard enough as seen before in this thread.

I've logged 105 hours at 5/5 plo this year at 28 bb/hr, but there have been sessions I'm immediately stuck 10k or go on a 14 k heater. There are a couple of guys who have been playing the game for a couple of years, would love to see what their results are, but they are the enemy so prob not gonna happen
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Old 04-18-2017, 04:22 PM   #18567
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Re: Good Live $1/2 winrate?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tilltard View Post
Some players play 12 hours 24/7?

Why even bothering to answer the question if this is your response? He's clearly not going to quit something that's made him high 4 figures as a part time job, so why bother? He gained literally nothing from your post.

Some solid advise would be to continue to put in hours so long as it doesn't interfere with his schooling and doesn't become a problem if he goes on a downswong.
For the overwhelming vast majority of players, the "quit poker and concentrate on school" advice is a clear winner, and not close.

If OP has a *solid* handle on where both poker and school fit in his life, then maybe it doesn't apply.

Gnowonlydown$5in2017,nowtherealpokerstarts!G
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Old 04-18-2017, 04:41 PM   #18568
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
What does it mean to be a target and why is this a bad thing?
because these are beginners asking beginners questions.
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Old 04-24-2017, 11:58 PM   #18569
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hit 500 hours so far this year (i usually only play weekends). Mostly 2/5, some 5/10, and a few 10/20. Regressing towards the mean it looks like.... hopefully the graph doesnt jump off the cliff the next 500 hours heh .


Last edited by Tiltyjoker; 04-25-2017 at 12:00 AM. Reason: IN BEFORE : 500 HOURS DONT MEAN ****
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Old 04-25-2017, 11:23 AM   #18570
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiltyjoker View Post
Hit 500 hours so far this year (i usually only play weekends). Mostly 2/5, some 5/10, and a few 10/20. Regressing towards the mean it looks like.... hopefully the graph doesnt jump off the cliff the next 500 hours heh .

Nice! Run good at highest stakes? How many bb/hr over this sample?
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Old 04-25-2017, 12:17 PM   #18571
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Expert giraffe posting tip: Set x/y resolution at 20% to improve giraffe awesomeness.

Here's my 3000 hour one again, but this time with new and improved resolution awesomeness:



Turns out my game didn't need work at all, just my giraffe posting skillz.

GfeelingbetteraboutmygamealreadyG
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Old 04-25-2017, 05:12 PM   #18572
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by niceguy22 View Post
Nice! Run good at highest stakes? How many bb/hr over this sample?
10.75bb. This recent $4k downswing at 2/5 isn't helping heh.
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Old 04-25-2017, 05:16 PM   #18573
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Expert giraffe posting tip: Set x/y resolution at 20% to improve giraffe awesomeness.

Here's my 3000 hour one again, but this time with new and improved resolution awesomeness:



Turns out my game didn't need work at all, just my giraffe posting skillz.

GfeelingbetteraboutmygamealreadyG
That's the way the graph looks on my phone. I guess I could turn it sideways and screenshot... but I never look at it that way.
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Old 04-25-2017, 05:42 PM   #18574
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Ha, wasn't a shot at you Tilty, but definitely did inspire me to post my skewed giraffe.

ETA: And nice results, BTW.

GcluelessgiraffepostingnoobG
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Old 04-27-2017, 04:07 PM   #18575
JacetheMind
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My first graph! 269 hours played all at 1/2nl, $7,700 in profit. 14bb per hour so far.

I've been on a nice little upswing, and if it continues I'll be taking shots at 2/5nl shortly. Much excite!

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