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Old 04-09-2017, 04:16 PM   #18526
nicname
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
A $500 cap is not standard where I've played. Certainly not in Vegas.

Vegas Rooms without $500 cap: ARIA, Wynn, Caesars Palace, Mandalay Bay, Mirage, Planet Hollywood, Red Rock, Rio (2/3 has $1k cap), South Point, The Orleans, Venetian

Vegas Rooms 2/5 Capped at $500 : Bellagio, MGM Grand

The above is for rooms that at least semi-regularly run 2/5+. Couldn't find info for rooms like Flamingo, although I seem to recall it being greater than $500 too.
Think MGM is 1k now.
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Old 04-09-2017, 06:22 PM   #18527
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I contest the idea that winrates approaching 100 at 2/5 are super rare, but whatever.

If you prefer, change my statement to "I've played in games where my expectation is 75/hr, but 3 months later the games got much worse and I'm probably breaking even at best". Same point. You don't have to focus on my brag or gloating if you don't wanna.

Also, I already stated my 2/5 winrate over entire sample is probably 70~, which is just 15bbs. That's not really that ridiculous and not a huge brag, why are people saying I am.

I'm just stating this average over large sample is in actuality split between games where's it's 6bb/hair and games where it's 25bb/hour (and I'm saying this is likely similar to some degree to most people, though deeper buyin caps generally lead to higher variations of expected winrate).

The takeaway is just that game selection is huge, and the same structure can allow for huge variance in winrate, and using your winrate in one 2/5 game to predict your winrate in another 2/5 is not super useful, especially if you've changed your poker strategies (which you should).

Last edited by Sol Reader; 04-09-2017 at 06:41 PM.
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Old 04-09-2017, 06:37 PM   #18528
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Also another point. My winrate at 2/5 decreased over last 3 years, despite being a MUCH better player. Games just got tougher, everyone got better. I have no doubt if you put me back in a 1.5-2k cap 2/5 game in 2015 I'd get 25bb/100 fairly easily now, and most of you would see huge increases in winrates too.

Fact is games getting tougher year by year affects your winrate a lot, so even if you have a 3k hours sample of a certain stake, you have no certainty it's reflective of your current winrate just because the games could've gotten much tougher, and it depends a lot if you've improved more or the field (factoring diminishing returns).

That's to say, I think I've improved less materially than the field, thus my winrates have dropped (partly due to diminishing returns if studying poker). Idk why people think I'm trying to brag here, I'm just warning people to be careful to think just because you've won a certain amount last x hands it doesn't really assure you or even really tells you much of your future winrate.
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Old 04-09-2017, 08:19 PM   #18529
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think trying to compare WR's by comparing game structures of the same "blinds" is much too vague and not a true predictor of similar conditions. It's likely a lot more useful online where basically all the games are more or less when they have the the same blind structure (aside from the nosebleeds which only run when there's a whale)

For example, let's say you state your 10knl WR online. Well, what's that really mean if you only play 10knl when Bill Perkins is playing? Comparative to another reg who grinds all hours of the day.

Just like how it means very little to state WR's of a 500 cap 2/5 game on the weekdays compared to a 2/5 game with a 2k cap played on the weekends with a lot of drunk fish.

My 2/5 sample would probably be better described as a 5/10 sample given game conditions (and lots of straddles).... but my 5/10 sample has a lot of game conditions that might better be described as a 10/20 sample, where the hell do we draw the line? Differentiating portions of our WR's as blinds vs game conditions seems like more trouble than its worth, especially when it's generally accepted that "WR" means very little since the games change so much over time.
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Old 04-10-2017, 12:42 AM   #18530
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
I think trying to compare WR's by comparing game structures of the same "blinds" is much too vague and not a true predictor of similar conditions.
No. You should probably be thinking in terms of 1/100 x average stack size instead. That's more important than the blinds.
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Old 04-11-2017, 07:01 PM   #18531
bmoney
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So question. When shot taking, how do you know when to stop shot taking and when to move up to that stake?

Just curious.
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Old 04-11-2017, 09:04 PM   #18532
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you're rolled than you can play. You may want to evaluate if you're a winner after a while.

I'd rather win at $1/2 than break even at $2/5.
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Old 04-11-2017, 09:12 PM   #18533
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bmoney View Post
So question. When shot taking, how do you know when to stop shot taking and when to move up to that stake?

Just curious.
You should stop when:

1) Your slurring your speech (nobody can figure out what your betting means)
2) You think your a good dancer (weaving your way through each hand like Durrrr)
3) Using cheesy pick up lines (your confidence is high)
4) Craving Taco Bell (your hungry for more chips)
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Old 04-12-2017, 07:30 AM   #18534
bmoney
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by 23LBJ23 View Post
You should stop when:

1) Your slurring your speech (nobody can figure out what your betting means)
2) You think your a good dancer (weaving your way through each hand like Durrrr)
3) Using cheesy pick up lines (your confidence is high)
4) Craving Taco Bell (your hungry for more chips)
well played
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Old 04-12-2017, 12:58 PM   #18535
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Last 2 sessions, +$700 in 7.1 hours

3 sessions before that, -$728 in 10.8 hours.

Gotta love the day to day $1000 volatility in $1/2 results.
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Old 04-12-2017, 02:20 PM   #18536
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Last 2 sessions, +$700 in 7.1 hours

3 sessions before that, -$728 in 10.8 hours.

Gotta love the day to day $1000 volatility in $1/2 results.
Only down $28 overall, nice, I read that as a brag.

Gwouldbeabragformein2017G
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Old 04-12-2017, 02:55 PM   #18537
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Only down $28 overall, nice, I read that as a brag.

Gwouldbeabragformein2017G
Still down $73.50 for the year

It's a good thing I enjoy this game.
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Old 04-12-2017, 03:17 PM   #18538
23LBJ23
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bmoney View Post
well played
Ty.
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Old 04-12-2017, 03:45 PM   #18539
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Still down $73.50 for the year
Again with the brags, give us a break!

Gstuck$718fortheyear,lolz@pokerG
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Old 04-12-2017, 04:15 PM   #18540
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Again with the brags, give us a break!

Gstuck$718fortheyear,lolz@pokerG
I haven't told you how much I've spent on hookers and blow this year


Aiwasstuck$800fortheyeartwodaysagoT
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Old 04-12-2017, 04:23 PM   #18541
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm in the midst of an upswing. Now making just a shade under $20/hr at 1/2 for the year. Since a good chunk of my time has been Day grandpa games downtown I think that's probably crushing it despite about a month of ridiculously bad play.
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Old 04-15-2017, 02:34 AM   #18542
doUgolf
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Good Live $1/2 winrate?

Hey guys I have been playing live $1/2 for the past 8 months a few days a week while I attend college. I have kept track of my winnings as well as losses and how many hours long each session was. So far I have put in a total of 324 hours and I have netted a profit of $8,294 or $25.60 per hour. My question is, is 324 hours enough to get a good idea of what my hourly win rate should be or should I look at it closer to 500-1k hours?
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Old 04-15-2017, 02:41 AM   #18543
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Re: Good Live $1/2 winrate?

3k hours. gj so far keep it up.
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Old 04-15-2017, 04:37 AM   #18544
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Re: Good Live $1/2 winrate?

goodjob man. thats actually harder then you think.
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Old 04-15-2017, 05:41 AM   #18545
ibelieveyouoweme$80k
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Re: Good Live $1/2 winrate?

you'll never get your real win rate.

you're off to a good start. but 324 hours is a month for some players, two months for most regs.

quit poker and concentrate on school.
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Old 04-15-2017, 06:33 AM   #18546
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Re: Good Live $1/2 winrate?

that's fantastic! congratulations to you sir, keep it up. I've heard the w/r reported in 1000 hour increments usually but you rock!
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Old 04-15-2017, 06:45 AM   #18547
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Re: Good Live $1/2 winrate?

stay in school and stay in poker!
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Old 04-15-2017, 09:10 AM   #18548
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Re: Good Live $1/2 winrate?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ibelieveyouoweme$80k View Post
you'll never get your real win rate.

you're off to a good start. but 324 hours is a month for some players, two months for most regs.

quit poker and concentrate on school.
Some players play 12 hours 24/7?

Why even bothering to answer the question if this is your response? He's clearly not going to quit something that's made him high 4 figures as a part time job, so why bother? He gained literally nothing from your post.

Some solid advise would be to continue to put in hours so long as it doesn't interfere with his schooling and doesn't become a problem if he goes on a downswong.
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Old 04-15-2017, 09:21 AM   #18549
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Check out GG's winrate info. Over 1000 hr samples his win rate has fluctuated wildly. You can't even tell for sure if you're actually a winner over that sample size. If you assume 25 hands/hr that's a shade over 8,000 hands. Anything can happen in that time and it won't really paint a good picture of how you're doing.

With that said, it's a fine start that any of us would take. Keep doing what you're doing.
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Old 04-15-2017, 10:42 AM   #18550
Dream Crusher
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'd say that winrates aren't important at all and all but that would upset the blowhards ITT. 324 hours is 2 months for professional poker players..a bit more than 2 months for most of them. It looks like you are off to a good start so just look to continue to improve and you should be fine.
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