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Old 04-07-2017, 11:34 PM   #18501
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I define regfish as regulars of the cardroom/poker, who are fishy, not "bad regs", which is another definition that is sometimes used. Regfish is used to signify they aren't randos, and therefore come regularly and can be a more regular source of edge, and whom allows more creative and exploitative players who read dynamics and history well to get an edge.
{Mod note: antagonistic portions of this post edited out and poster warned}

And my point was that you aren't going to win at 25bb/HR Vs these players. To do that, to sustain that WR, if it is even possible, you need whales - drunks, dealers, rich businessmen, people who have never played before, guys punting off thousands a session at 1/3. These players, while they might play somewhat regularly, cannot be defined as regfish, as per your definition.

Last edited by Garick; 04-08-2017 at 08:08 AM. Reason: removed insults
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Old 04-08-2017, 10:37 AM   #18502
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You're not my mom! You don't tell me who I can win 25BBs/hour from and who I can't!!!!111

But seriously, who are you, and what do you know about me to be able to make a statement like that.
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Old 04-08-2017, 10:43 AM   #18503
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post
You're not my mom! You don't tell me who I can win 25BBs/hour from and who I can't!!!!111

But seriously, who are you, and what do you know about me to be able to make a statement like that.
What is your sample size of the 25BB/hr and what stake? just curious
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Old 04-08-2017, 10:45 AM   #18504
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Sol Reader, thanks for the reply.

That's a great rule you have for a 2/5 game over there where you can match half the highest stack. That can definitely surge your hourly with deeper stacks. Would you mind sharing what your hourly rate is in PLO at 2/5? And if that games usually straddles for 10?

I just don't have anything to compare to so I don't know what a 'good rate' is or ever was.
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Old 04-08-2017, 11:30 AM   #18505
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What is your sample size of the 25BB/hr and what stake? just curious
I didn't have a sample of 25bb/100. I won 70k over 4 months, over about 200-250 hours, where I estimated my actual edge is about that 125/hour. I have a larger sample of about 1500 hours where I average about 70~ hour, and I extrapolated my experience at higher and lower stakes, factoring in rake, and how much softer that period is vs other periods.

This is my point. I averaged about 70/hour, but there were periods during this sample where my hourly was probably 35, and a period where it was 125, and it all probably boils down to an average close to what my actual average was, but there's no way there is a significant enough sample to prove the spots individually since I was specifically talking about a few months dry spell in the games, and then a very good few months (holidays, lots of travels, better regs gone for various reasons).

The thing though is that it doesn't have to be a few months. I could be talking about a specific given session where my hourly was 250+ or something, or a specific session where my hourly was breakeven or even negative. Each session is different, and everything else is just averages and generalisations.

In my PLO, I write down my 2/5/10 at 5/10 and compile them together, so it'll be mixed with my straight 5/10 data. I believe my hourly for 5/10 is 165 or something over 600 hours at PLO.
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Old 04-08-2017, 09:05 PM   #18506
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Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post
You're not my mom! You don't tell me who I can win 25BBs/hour from and who I can't!!!!111

But seriously, who are you, and what do you know about me to be able to make a statement like that.
I don't need to know anything about you to make that statement. It's just really basic stats.
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Old 04-08-2017, 09:22 PM   #18507
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What does that have to do with "basic stats"? Stats don't dictate how well or poorly opponents play, unless you're suggesting that 25bb/hour is mathematically impossible, which is patently untrue. Of course maths dictate what a maximum physically possible amount of money to be won is, but that ceiling is nowhere near 25BB/hour.

For instance, if in the game it was always straddled twice to 25, and stacks are 2.5k min max 10k (which in several games was true), having a 125/hour winrate is trivial. So if you don't know that's not the case, how can you say that?

In the period I noted, average stacks were probably around 2k, sometimes 4~ players with 7-8k stacks, and during that period, double straddles were allowed and it's almost always straddled at least once, sometimes twice. The game plays bigger than most American 5/10 games (games are also played more aggro preflop compared to most American games, as any regs who've played internationally can attest).

The thing is, I didn't note that to state possible winrates at 2/5, so any comments about how "it's not really a 2/5 game" is entirely irrelevant. I'm by far not the only one with such a high winrate in those games, and there were at least 3 players who are clearly significantly better than I was in those games playing at the time. Similarly, I don't pretend to be able to replicate these results in a lot of other 2/5 games. My point is that in this exact structure, sometimes the winrate is 35/hour, but sometimes, when the mentioned conditioned are true, it shoots up to very high, and I said this to demonstrate the variance of possible winrates and how it's pointless to go around comparing winrates at "2/5" when everyone's 2/5 can be entirely different, and how because these conditions change over any sample that would be deemed significant (as well as hero's skill), trying to get a big enough sample to know your winrate is pointless.

But of course not, you didn't read what I said and took it as gloating about how big my winrate is and decide to come over and challenge me about it.
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Old 04-08-2017, 09:25 PM   #18508
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I don't know where you play specifically, but of course I'd expect someone who plays in Australia to not think it's possible with your ridiculous rake, time charge, and buyin structures.
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Old 04-08-2017, 09:34 PM   #18509
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Lol how was I supposed to know your "2/5" game plays bigger than most 5/T games? You're effectively playing a 10/25 game... That's a pretty big caveat not to mention when you're having a conversation about 2/5 winrates...

And now you'll own me over semantics by saying oh well it's still technically a 2/5? Right.
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Old 04-08-2017, 09:38 PM   #18510
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It is literally 2/5 blinds, what am I supposed to call it?

I definitely believe you can get better winrates in some (unstraddled even) 1/2 games than in some 2/5 games, am I supposed to call the 1/2 game something else just because the winrate is higher? Should I call a 2/5 game that's very tight, short, and nitty a 1/3 game just because the possible winrate is more akin to a 1/3?

The blinds are defined by how big the blinds are, not by how much you can win from them, in fact that was the entire point, trying to segregate winrate potential based on the blinds is ridiculous. It depends on the game conditions.

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That's a pretty big caveat not to mention when you're having a conversation about 2/5 winrates...
Did you read what I said? When was it about possible winrates at 2/5. You made that from thin air. Zero reading comprehension of course.

Quote:
My point is that in this exact structure, sometimes the winrate is 35/hour, but sometimes, when the mentioned conditioned are true, it shoots up to very high, and I said this to demonstrate the variance of possible winrates and how it's pointless to go around comparing winrates at "2/5" when everyone's 2/5 can be entirely different.
My point has nothing to do with 2/5 specifically, it can apply to any stakes, my point is about sample size and how it's moot to try conflate games and potential winrates looking solely at the blind levels.
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Old 04-08-2017, 09:45 PM   #18511
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Here's the first time I mentioned 2/5:

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I've played 2/5 games where my expectation over long term (not because of one or two fish, but because of a few bad regfish) is probably 125/hour, but then after 3 months, the game changed dramatically, and my hourly dropped to like 30 or something.
Nowhere here did I try to make a statement about 2/5 games in general, I mention 2/5 merely as it's my anecdote for when winrates within the same blind and buyin structure fluctuated and changed wildly based on the player pool. Nowhere have I suggested that 125 is a reasonable winrate to expect at most 2/5 games.

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lol how was I supposed to know your "2/5" game plays bigger than most 5/T games? You're effectively playing a 10/25 game... That's a pretty big caveat not to mention when you're having a conversation about 2/5 winrates...
LOL, CAVEAT?

How were you supposed to know? idk, maybe read what I wrote?

I specifically said "you don't know anything about me and the games I play in", to which you LITERALLY said you DON'T NEED TO KNOW ANYTHING to make that statement.

Quote:
I don't need to know anything about you to make that statement. It's just really basic stats.
Hey hey hey, wanna, i dunno, take this back? apologise? say "oh I was wrong after all, it actually matters what the games you were in like"?? lol?

Also my game doesn't play like a 10/25, idk where you got that from. 10/25 is uncapped here (and usually), this game is smaller than 5/10 in the UK and isn't a 5/10 game, specifically I said it's bigger than AMERICAN (and Australian) 5/10, but not bigger than european 5/10 or some deeper uncapped 5/10s. I said it double straddle sometimes, but is almost always straddled once, which still makes it smaller than UK 5/10. Good to see you've made no attempts to improve your reading comprehension.
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Old 04-08-2017, 09:56 PM   #18512
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I've played 2/5 games where my expectation over long term (not because of one or two fish, but because of a few bad regfish) is probably 125/hour
Expectation over the long term. This kind of negated when you say the game changes. It should therefore read "expectation over the short term".

Quote:
LOL, CAVEAT?

Like you literally said BASIC STATS means that NO caveats or explanations of my game conditions are required your statement. specifically said "you don't know anything about me and the games I play in", to which you LITERALLY said you DON'T NEED TO KNOW ANYTHING to make that statement.

Hey hey hey, wanna, i dunno, take this back? apologise? say "oh I was wrong after all, it actually matters what the games you were in like"?? lol?
Nah, in fact, by the power vested in me by the almighty poker gods, I hereby require you, whenever you next mention "your" particular 2/5 game, to refer to it as a "2/5/T/25 super deep uncapped" game so we can avoid this confusion in future.

When people say "2/5" they refer to the average 2/5 which usually plays around 500 cap.
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Old 04-08-2017, 10:34 PM   #18513
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I specifically said the game conditions changed and the expected winrate became much lower, so obviously I didn't mean the winrate would remain 125 if the game conditions shifted.

It's true though, expectation already means your "long run" or "mathematical" EV, so "over the long term" is redundant, but it's clear what I'd meant, I meant that "I would approximately win at that winrate over the long term if those game conditions remained." Kinda funny that you're talking about me picking on semantics.

Quote:
When people say "2/5" they refer to the average 2/5 which usually plays around 500 cap.
Maybe in Australia/America. Lots of 2/5 games all over the world have higher caps. Most 2/5 in UK have 2.5k cap or uncapped. Equivalent stakes in lots of places in Asia have higher caps or are uncapped. Where have you played in?
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Old 04-08-2017, 11:24 PM   #18514
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I've 100% played in great 2/5 games which involve deep stacks and straddling where my expected winrate is very very high, likely > 125$/hr. These just don't happen that often
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Old 04-09-2017, 12:33 AM   #18515
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Cliffs: certain games at the same stake level can have different hourly potentials based on various factors
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Old 04-09-2017, 01:10 AM   #18516
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... and trying to compile and look at data without making sure it's reflective of your current game will not help you figure out your winrate.

And more importantly, you should never get a statistically significant sample in live poker before those conditions change significantly.

Most game pools change over time (poker has gotten tougher everywhere gradually), and your game should be improving significantly over any 6 month period also, ESPECIALLY LLSNL players, but honestly this applies to most higher stakes players too ime.
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Old 04-09-2017, 01:39 AM   #18517
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Kind of a dumb question, but I'm curious how others calculate their hours in live play. If you use a session tracker, do you only count the time you're sitting at the table as your hours played in a session, or do you count your hours as the time you sat down until the time you rack up? Basically, do you continue to run the clock while you take breaks or do you pause the timer?

For many this is an insignificant decision, but as a smoker with a bad back I take frequent breaks throughout my sessions. So much so that on average I'm away from the table for 7-9min out of every hour. So given that I'm away from the table for 10-15% of every hour, it definitely effects my hourly rate depending on how I calculate it. Like I said it's a dumb question and as a causal player I'm not terribly concerned about the effect this has on my hourly rate, I'm just curious how others clock breaks when tracking their live sessions.
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Old 04-09-2017, 02:46 AM   #18518
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I note the time I sit down and the time I get up, within about 5 minutes. So 7:13 is 7:15, etc. Don't pause the clock for a bathroom break, will pause for a diner if it's going to be 30 mins or more (but that's rare).


So I've had a wonderful couple of sessions with little more than folding trash hands in LP, marginally good hands in EP, getting ****ed in 80% equity spots, and running into the nuts, YAY!

For the year:
-$773 over 188 hours for a "meh" -$4/hr

Since September:
+$135.50 over 410.4 hours, for a whopping "why am I bothering" $0.33/hr

Sometimes I really hate this ****ing game.
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Old 04-09-2017, 08:43 AM   #18519
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A $500 cap is not standard where I've played. Certainly not in Vegas.

Vegas Rooms without $500 cap: ARIA, Wynn, Caesars Palace, Mandalay Bay, Mirage, Planet Hollywood, Red Rock, Rio (2/3 has $1k cap), South Point, The Orleans, Venetian

Vegas Rooms 2/5 Capped at $500 : Bellagio, MGM Grand

The above is for rooms that at least semi-regularly run 2/5+. Couldn't find info for rooms like Flamingo, although I seem to recall it being greater than $500 too.
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Old 04-09-2017, 08:46 AM   #18520
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Since September:
+$135.50 over 410.4 hours, for a whopping "why am I bothering" $0.33/hr
"Why am I bothering" is actually a legitimate question that players all too often just brush aside.
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Old 04-09-2017, 09:51 AM   #18521
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Jeezus krist sol. Weather you meant to do it just so you could get someone to bite so you can so how ossumly smart you are or not is up for debate. You left your game conditions vague enough to get someone to call you out. 99.9% of games I have played in have never seen the conditions you talk about (and based on this forum I would say that holds true for most of its participants).

Since BF I have played full time live. I have seen conditions like you mentioned exactly 1 time. It was a 2/5 game in vegas during superbowl weekend. 4 buddies were at the game straddling UTG and frequently blind raising to 20. Yes its a game with 2/5 blinds BUT its not a 2/5 game.

When discussing w/r and w/r potential - if you are waaay outside the box - its prolly a good idea to say "look, my game conditions are a bit unique - and here is why I stomp the living sht outta these games for x"

For example - when I discuss mine I tell people frankly I am nothing special. I worked my ass off and got lucky cuz I hung out with people significantly smarter than I am. I also am very self aware and am able to stay on track and not get entitlement tilt or spew...and if I am starting to I rectify it.
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Old 04-09-2017, 12:06 PM   #18522
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
I note the time I sit down and the time I get up, within about 5 minutes. So 7:13 is 7:15, etc. Don't pause the clock for a bathroom break, will pause for a diner if it's going to be 30 mins or more (but that's rare).


So I've had a wonderful couple of sessions with little more than folding trash hands in LP, marginally good hands in EP, getting ****ed in 80% equity spots, and running into the nuts, YAY!

For the year:
-$773 over 188 hours for a "meh" -$4/hr

Since September:
+$135.50 over 410.4 hours, for a whopping "why am I bothering" $0.33/hr

Sometimes I really hate this ****ing game.
I was a slight loser for the year until my last +3BI+ session. Now I can look at my results and answer the question of why I play. $6.68/hr.
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Old 04-09-2017, 12:11 PM   #18523
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I have found it useful over the last 20 years of participating in internet chat sites to never challenge any claim made, especially when it has no material effect on my life. If someone wants to claim they make 25BB/hr, good for them.

It only impacts the players that are at his table. If true, the smart ones at the table will either stop playing against him or work harder to get better. If not, they will know he's a bull****ter and take advantage of that. Either way, stating a high win rate is a good way to make sure that you won't have it in the future.

As David Sklansky said years ago, the best player at the table is the one that nobody pays attention to and at the end of the night people wonder, "how did he get all those chips?"
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Old 04-09-2017, 12:40 PM   #18524
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I've played 2/5 games where my expectation over long term (not because of one or two fish, but because of a few bad regfish) is probably 125/hour, but then after 3 months, the game changed dramatically, and my hourly dropped to like 30 or something.
It's pretty obvious that this statement went way over everyone's head.

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I'm sorry but no one's long-term EV is 25bb/hour in a game full of "regfish" at 2/5.
This statement is false any way you cut it, but even more-so when you consider the context of Sol Reader's post. A more proper response would have been:

"The highest winrate I've heard of over a decent sample is X bbs/hr. Can you please elaborate as to how you can expect to make 25bbs/hr in a 2/5 game? Is this an uncapped game? Are players betting blind a lot? Because this really doesn't make sense to me."

....as clearly it didn't since what Sol Reader was posting cleared the top of everyone's head by about a mile.

Perhaps X would be equal to 10 since that is a nice round number that people like to use ITT, or perhaps 15 since that is a number many players have claimed. Although, if you had read this entire thread I would expect you to say 20 since 20 bbs/hr is the highest winrate I know of that has been posted by a credible poster ITT.
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Old 04-09-2017, 01:14 PM   #18525
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
I was a slight loser for the year until my last +3BI+ session. Now I can look at my results and answer the question of why I play. $6.68/hr.
Yea, I somehow put up almost $7k last year even with being pretty flat for a couple of long stretches. Just need a little winning run to get it back.
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