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Old 03-31-2017, 02:04 PM   #18451
jc315
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gus1112 View Post
this times 1 million

i put up a 12bb win rate over 1500 hours 2 years ago... in my last 1000 hours in the same exact player pool (maybe a little tougher) I have put up 1.5bb WR.... I had zero idea how hot I was running. 1000 hours isn't even close to enough to have any idea of winrate in my opinion.

that is wow. i quit poker.
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Old 03-31-2017, 03:33 PM   #18452
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm break even over 100 hrs so ya F pokerZ.
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Old 03-31-2017, 03:54 PM   #18453
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
I'm break even over 100 hrs so ya F pokerZ.
I'm up $114 in 118 hours in 2017, so inquire within regarding my coaching rates, ldo.

GwinningatpokerG
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Old 03-31-2017, 03:55 PM   #18454
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I will post my 1000 hour 2|5 graph when I get there. I'm pretty close. I had a stretch of nearly 400 hours where I did not make money, and two separate downswings of about 1400bb. Overall I am still winning $40-$45/h.
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Old 03-31-2017, 03:57 PM   #18455
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
I will post my 1000 hour 2|5 graph when I get there. I'm pretty close. I had a stretch of nearly 400 hours where I did not make money, and two separate downswings of about 1400bb. Overall I am still winning $40-$45/h.
Holy high variance!

Gniceoverallresultsifyoucanstomachthevariance!G
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Old 03-31-2017, 04:04 PM   #18456
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
I'm break even over 100 hrs so ya F pokerZ.
Lulz
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Old 04-01-2017, 09:36 AM   #18457
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

2017 started off rough, but going good lately

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Old 04-01-2017, 11:36 AM   #18458
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

2017 is off to a solid if unspectacular start. 3 of my 4 losing sessions are on the second night of playing back to back. 4 of my 5 winners are 200+BBs.




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Old 04-01-2017, 02:50 PM   #18459
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances



i echo recent sentiments about Fridays in Q1 2017
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Old 04-02-2017, 01:50 PM   #18460
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream View Post
2017 started off rough, but going good lately

Poker ROI vs S&P500 return is such a silly stat. Not grinding S&P500 hours everyday.

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Old 04-02-2017, 03:29 PM   #18461
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

What app is that?
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Old 04-02-2017, 08:12 PM   #18462
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Bad last few sessions in March, but still an ok month. Majority at 2/5 with a little 1/2 mixed in.

March = $3163 over 162 hours (3.89 bb's/hr)

2017 to date = $11700 over 385 hours (6.09 bb's/hr)
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Old 04-05-2017, 10:38 PM   #18463
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yesterday I finally got back to 20BI. 20 BI exactly. Now I'm going to take a 2 BI shot at 10/20.
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Old 04-06-2017, 03:10 AM   #18464
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How many live hours until...

how many live hours is enough to gauge your true win rate at your relative stake? 10,000? 5000? I know after 2000 hours, you should
be able to tell if you are a winning player. I wanted some educated opinions on this... like if you play 1500 hours per year (which is about 40,000 hands) if you factor in variance, how many hours would you need to actually find out your true win rate/hourly? If you are playing at your local casino at your usual stake. Thanks!
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Old 04-06-2017, 03:52 AM   #18465
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Re: How many live hours until...

You just need to know your standard deviation per hour, and then you can come up with a confidence interval. Typical NLHE standard deviation is 50-100 BB per hour.

68% of the time, your actual results fall within one standard deviation of your true win rate, and 95% of the time, your actual results fall within two standard deviations.

So say your actual win rate is 5 BB/hour and standard deviation is 75 BB/hour. After 100 hours of play you can be 95% confident that your true win rate is a minimum of (5*100-75*2*sqrt(100))/100 = -10 BB/hour and a maximum of (5*100+75*2*sqrt(100))/100 = 20 BB/hour.

After 1000 hours if your historical win rate is still 5 BB/hour you can be 95% confident that your true expected win rate is between 0.26 and 9.74 BB/hour.
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Old 04-06-2017, 04:56 AM   #18466
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Re: How many live hours until...

You'll never know your true WR and it's not worth wasting time thinking about. Conditions change every time you play. If you measure your results over 1000 hour increments you will likely find enormous variation between samples.

To the guy above - observed WR does not equal actual WR.
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Old 04-06-2017, 08:15 AM   #18467
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Re: How many live hours until...

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
You'll never know your true WR and it's not worth wasting time thinking about. Conditions change every time you play. If you measure your results over 1000 hour increments you will likely find enormous variation between samples.

To the guy above - observed WR does not equal actual WR.
Whats your definition of enormous? If you play 1000 hrs of 2/5 at $38/hr and another 1000 at $32/hr would you call that enormous? On a percentage basis it could be considered pretty big, but I would say that's fairly normal. I would also say you can probably be fairly confidant your real win rate is somewhere in the mid $30s. That's good enough to plan a budget have some expectation of how much money you will have coming in. That's as close as youre gonna get to a true win rate. If your spread between 1000 hr intervals is bigger than that, you probably play a very high variance game and should tweak a few things.

OTTH, how many players here even have 2+ 1000 hr intervals?
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Old 04-06-2017, 08:23 AM   #18468
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Re: How many live hours until...

"To the guy above - observed WR does not equal actual WR."
Very interesting, what exactly do you mean? Not being sarcastic, don't understand why.
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Old 04-06-2017, 08:24 AM   #18469
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Re: How many live hours until...

is 1000 the minimum for drawing conclusions? I'm only getting in about 400 hours a year
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Old 04-06-2017, 10:09 AM   #18470
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

No one will "know" their winrate, as observed results will always be the result of more or less statistical variance. The more hours you have though, the closer your observed results are likely to be to your statistical expected winrate.

Based on studies in this thread, even for those with lower standard deviation per hour, it's hard to be 95% confident that you're even a winning player with less than 500 hours. In other words, your margin of error plus or minus (which you figure with the formula below) is usually wider than observed winrate up until about then.

At about 1000 hours, the margin of error (at least for an average winning player) gets to be small enough that one can actually speak somewhat meaningfully about winrate, rather than just "I'm pretty sure I'm a winning player."

At 2000 hours you have a very nice statistical sample, but by then both the game and your play will likely have changed enough that the things that happened 2000 hours ago don't really tell you much about today's expectation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
I propose from now on we should just post winrates based on a 95% confidence interval using the formula:

(2*stdvhrsbb)/sqrthrsplayed

where stdvhrsbb = standard deviation per hour divided by the Big Blind
and sqrthrsplayed = square root of hours played


So my standard deviation at 500nl is $343.93 per hour as shown in Poker Journal
And my hours played is 1333.23
My current winrate is $51.77 per hour



Plugging it in:
(2*(343.93/5))/sqrt(1333.23)
= 137.572/36.51342218965514
= +- 3.77BBs

So I am 95% confident my winrate at 500nl is between:
$51.77-(3.77*$5) and $51.77+(3.77*$5)

Or $32.92 to $70.62 per hour
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Old 04-06-2017, 11:34 AM   #18471
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Whats your definition of enormous? If you play 1000 hrs of 2/5 at $38/hr and another 1000 at $32/hr would you call that enormous? On a percentage basis it could be considered pretty big, but I would say that's fairly normal. I would also say you can probably be fairly confidant your real win rate is somewhere in the mid $30s. That's good enough to plan a budget have some expectation of how much money you will have coming in. That's as close as youre gonna get to a true win rate. If your spread between 1000 hr intervals is bigger than that, you probably play a very high variance game and should tweak a few things.

OTTH, how many players here even have 2+ 1000 hr intervals?
Scroll back a few pages.

There are a few around. GG has some pretty different samples, I've posted graphs that'll make your heart sink when you think about sample size too.
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Old 04-06-2017, 11:47 AM   #18472
gobbledygeek
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Re: How many live hours until...

Quote:
Originally Posted by pooky604 View Post
how many live hours is enough to gauge your true win rate at your relative stake? 10,000? 5000? I know after 2000 hours, you should
be able to tell if you are a winning player. I wanted some educated opinions on this... like if you play 1500 hours per year (which is about 40,000 hands) if you factor in variance, how many hours would you need to actually find out your true win rate/hourly? If you are playing at your local casino at your usual stake. Thanks!
For a fun example of how meaningless your winrate *might* be, see my post#18419 from a couple of pages back.

Gthebestplayerinmygame...ohwait,theworstplayer...o hwait,nope,thebest...theworst?G
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Old 04-06-2017, 11:52 AM   #18473
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Re: How many live hours until...

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Whats your definition of enormous? If you play 1000 hrs of 2/5 at $38/hr and another 1000 at $32/hr would you call that enormous? On a percentage basis it could be considered pretty big, but I would say that's fairly normal. I would also say you can probably be fairly confidant your real win rate is somewhere in the mid $30s. That's good enough to plan a budget have some expectation of how much money you will have coming in. That's as close as youre gonna get to a true win rate. If your spread between 1000 hr intervals is bigger than that, you probably play a very high variance game and should tweak a few things.

OTTH, how many players here even have 2+ 1000 hr intervals?
My results would certainly argue against anything in bold, and I'm guessing I probably play the nittiest low variance style of anyone here.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 04-06-2017, 01:28 PM   #18474
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Saturdays are least profitable where I play because weekdays is where the punters with no jobs play, and weekends is where the better semi-pros play. Big games also don't run.

I personally think game conditions change dramatically over 2 year periods or less, which is how much time it takes to get the big sample needed even if you did play a lot of hours (which may be unreasonable). Online you can put in tons of hours without changing your strategy dramatically but if you manage to play 1000 hours of poker without making fundamental shifts in your game, then I feel like you're making a mistake in how you learn poker, not to mention even then your EV will change because the game conditions will change.

Statistics and results aren't useless, but I don't think it's healthy to be obsessive around it at all. It's better to focus on playing well, and analyze your play through means other than results.
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Old 04-06-2017, 01:42 PM   #18475
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I know most people can't relate to huge jumps in stakes, because I play from 1/2 up to 25/50/100/200 stakes, but if it helps, I had a breakeven year 2014, like entire year, break even (made money because I sold action at the highest stakes where I'd lost). In 2015, I had a month where I won more than I had the entire year, and also had a month where I'd lost more than my entire year (before considering action selling).

To me, it seems really moot to think about results too much. I've played 2/5 games where my expectation over long term (not because of one or two fish, but because of a few bad regfish) is probably 125/hour, but then after 3 months, the game changed dramatically, and my hourly dropped to like 30 or something.

In america where the playing pool is larger and more stable I imagine there is less deviation but ultimately I feel like all this hand wringing is procrastination from what's really important which is figuring out the basic skills, both in playing poker and estimating edge via intuition.

I would always trust an experienced, unbiased, and smart poker player's estimation of winrate over results. Now that's not saying I think poker players are by any means GOOD at estimating their edge, but I think it's better than looking at results.
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