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Old 03-30-2017, 03:42 AM   #18426
johnnyBuz
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I played 1800+ hours in 2016 and Saturday followed by Friday were my least profitable days of the week (they were both badly negative and I had a good winning year). I only logged 425 hours across those two days because #sociallife but the point remains.

As someone who has probably played more hours than 99% of the active posters on this forum over the last 2+ years I am more convinced as time goes by that nobody has any clue what a statistically significant sample size is. Variance in live poker is remarkably enormous to the point that you can't explain it to someone that hasn't experienced the full cycle of highs and lows.

I used to be one of those people that thought "breaking even for 100 hours" was running bad. And then I played more and more and more and saw more and more and more and have begun to come around to the realization that poker is not the never ending ATM you think it is when you are running good.

Most importantly, it's made me realize that when you think you are running "average" you are actually running pretty good, when you think you are running "bad" you are most likely running average, and when you are cognizant enough to admit you are running "good" you are most likely sun running so hot that the thousands of hours that succeed that period will leave you wondering why the "good times" never return.

Just my .02 (not bad for post 3333)
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Old 03-30-2017, 06:07 AM   #18427
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For the reasons JohnnyB said I say the smell test is better than 1/7 of a small sample size. The best day certainly depends on the market. At Foxwoods it was Sunday as much of the clientele was the weekend tourist who had his last chance to get even Sunday night. At CAZ the weekend brings a horde of tight collar professionals who don't have time to play during the week.

Consider the STD instead of winrate, it might give you an idea of how much is being wagered.
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Old 03-30-2017, 09:35 AM   #18428
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I played 1800+ hours in 2016 and Saturday followed by Friday were my least profitable days of the week (they were both badly negative and I had a good winning year). I only logged 425 hours across those two days because #sociallife but the point remains.

As someone who has probably played more hours than 99% of the active posters on this forum over the last 2+ years I am more convinced as time goes by that nobody has any clue what a statistically significant sample size is. Variance in live poker is remarkably enormous to the point that you can't explain it to someone that hasn't experienced the full cycle of highs and lows.

I used to be one of those people that thought "breaking even for 100 hours" was running bad. And then I played more and more and more and saw more and more and more and have begun to come around to the realization that poker is not the never ending ATM you think it is when you are running good.

Most importantly, it's made me realize that when you think you are running "average" you are actually running pretty good, when you think you are running "bad" you are most likely running average, and when you are cognizant enough to admit you are running "good" you are most likely sun running so hot that the thousands of hours that succeed that period will leave you wondering why the "good times" never return.

Just my .02 (not bad for post 3333)
While most winners perceptions on winrate potential are probably skewed to make them think they can win higher than possible long term like you say, some people run way worse than 95% of people ever do for some periods, like you probably did. Your views are probably skewed the other way.
Id be interested in hearing about your best, and worst 500 hr stretches (or even 1000) if you wanna share, just to see the variance that a good player can have
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Old 03-30-2017, 12:04 PM   #18429
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Originally Posted by OvertlySexual View Post
It's all statistical noise.
+1

I've played 3285 hours at my 1/3 NL game, which means an "average" sample size on any particular day would only be 469 hours, which is pretty much meaningless.

It's also no coincidence that of my day-by-day breakdowns that the day the ends up being closest to my overall winrate is the day I've put in the largest sample size (Sun @ $22.77/hr over 1144 hours, which is closest to my overall $22.26).

I would actually argue that in some markets (mine being one of them) that day / time-of-day makes zero difference, as it is just a consistent wall-to-wall reggish line up (i.e. there are zero random Friday/Saturday night casino goers with beer-in-hand sitting down at poker tables in my room). In fact, if anything, it would be the opposite at my room (as Friday/Saturday the 5 table room is usually so packed that there is a multi-hour wait list, preventing any random casino noob from ever sitting down, whereas on slower nights a random casino noob would have a better chance at getting on a table quicker).

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Old 03-30-2017, 12:40 PM   #18430
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When I've done day to day breakdowns I've seen the same thing. Too much noise even in the 500 hour samples. Same applies to comparing different rooms.

But that doesn't negate our eyes. A room with more traffic on a given day should afford us greater table selection and a higher cap if we are good enough to exploit it. Same with the average stack on the table or average pot size (easy to observe). Different rooms and markets are going to have different hot times. And as GG says, sometimes a room busy enough to have a waitlist will turn away the fishiest players. I've seen that happen often too.
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Old 03-30-2017, 01:01 PM   #18431
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Are you referring to me not showing up the other night because of the list?


I prefer the never ending school of fish and chips offered by the MGM buffet these days.
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Old 03-30-2017, 01:33 PM   #18432
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I wasn't thinking of that explicitly, but it is a good example. I skip MCC often for the same reason, and I've seen people wander up to the desk and inquire about a game in many markets, before going back to the blackjack pit when there are no seats.
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Old 03-30-2017, 01:36 PM   #18433
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+1

I've played 3285 hours at my 1/3 NL game, which means an "average" sample size on any particular day would only be 469 hours, which is pretty much meaningless.

GcluelessnoisenoobG
Is it really that meaningless? Can you cherry pick a single period of 469 hours where you lost overall? My guess is no. If thats true, then 469 hrs gives us a decent guideline, doesnt it? What is your least profitable 469 hrs?
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Old 03-30-2017, 01:38 PM   #18434
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Is it really that meaningless? Can you cherry pick a single period of 469 hours where you lost overall? My guess is no. If thats true, then 469 hrs gives us a decent guideline, doesnt it? What is your least profitable 469 hrs?
I can.

And breakeven.

And +$20/hr


Red line is the result of "the previous 500 hours leading to this point":


But then I also think I may be cursed with some awful run-bad based on the hands that I get cracked on a regular basis.

Last edited by Angrist; 03-30-2017 at 01:40 PM. Reason: Link
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Old 03-30-2017, 01:45 PM   #18435
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Is it really that meaningless? Can you cherry pick a single period of 469 hours where you lost overall? My guess is no. If thats true, then 469 hrs gives us a decent guideline, doesnt it? What is your least profitable 469 hrs?
Maybe meaningless is too strong; I mean I'm pretty sure each individual 469 hour period has shown me to be a winner (so far), so, hurray.

But to compare it to other 469 hour periods that just happen to fall on a different day and think we can draw some meaningful conclusions from it (i.e. Thursday is much better than Wednesday by a factor of 3, which my results to date show, although admittedly only at half that sample size)? Meh.

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Old 03-30-2017, 02:17 PM   #18436
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I can.

And breakeven.

And +$20/hr


Red line is the result of "the previous 500 hours leading to this point":


But then I also think I may be cursed with some awful run-bad based on the hands that I get cracked on a regular basis.
Kinda confusing but does that red line mean that your wr went from 20$/hr at ~375 hrs, and down to $5/hr at like ~450 hrs? That is a bad 75 hr stretch for like -$5k. Or maybe im reading it wrong.

Btw im not rubbing it in. I think you're a good player fwiw

Last edited by niceguy22; 03-30-2017 at 02:39 PM.
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Old 03-30-2017, 02:53 PM   #18437
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@niceguy22

He never went to $5/hr on the red and blue line in the time line you depicted. Red didn't hit $5 until the 700's or so. The red line simply measures the last 500 hours on a trailing basis. Thus the greater volatility then the overall win rate - blue line. Green is over last 100 hours. Thus even greater volatility.
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Old 03-30-2017, 02:56 PM   #18438
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Kinda confusing but does that red line mean that your wr went from 20$/hr at ~375 hrs, and down to $5/hr at like ~450 hrs? That is a bad 75 hr stretch for like -$5k. Or maybe im reading it wrong.

Btw im not rubbing it in. I think you're a good player fwiw


It's just graphing 500 and 100 hour intervals. At hour 1000 on the X axis, the red line represents his winrate from hours 500-1000, green line represents winrate from hours 900-1000. If you move 50 hours down the line to 1050, it then shifts to hours 550-1050 and 950-1050 for the red and green, respectively.

Essentially, all this graph is for is to show that at block X hours of time, his winrate has varied from values $Y to $Z, because he was responding to a comment about seeing a ~500 hour chunk with a negative winrate
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Old 03-30-2017, 03:18 PM   #18439
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Kinda confusing but does that red line mean that your wr went from 20$/hr at ~375 hrs, and down to $5/hr at like ~450 hrs? That is a bad 75 hr stretch for like -$5k. Or maybe im reading it wrong.

Btw im not rubbing it in. I think you're a good player fwiw
Yea, you're reading it a little wrong. The blue line is overall winrate, which remains positive. The red only looks at the last 500 hours. So at hour 500 it covers hours 0-500, at hour 505 it's hours 5-505.

Thanks. I'm not a *great* player, and have some bad leaks. But I don't see many large datasets that anyone has bothered to look into in any depth for a live game. So there's some value in these.

I do have a stretch of 228 hours where I lost $5,500. Some of that was trying to play PLO, but most of it was NLHE. I think that was around hour 2000 or so.

Quote:
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@niceguy22

He never went to $5/hr on the red and blue line in the time line you depicted. Red didn't hit $5 until the 700's or so. The red line simply measures the last 500 hours on a trailing basis. Thus the greater volatility then the overall win rate - blue line. Green is over last 100 hours. Thus even greater volatility.

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It's just graphing 500 and 100 hour intervals. At hour 1000 on the X axis, the red line represents his winrate from hours 500-1000, green line represents winrate from hours 900-1000. If you move 50 hours down the line to 1050, it then shifts to hours 550-1050 and 950-1050 for the red and green, respectively.

Essentially, all this graph is for is to show that at block X hours of time, his winrate has varied from values $Y to $Z, because he was responding to a comment about seeing a ~500 hour chunk with a negative winrate
Exactly. I like to show this graph to people that start worrying about or planning around 100 hour samples. It's also why I'm suspicious even of 500 hour samples. Although I think those are enough that you can tell a winning player from a complete donkey. I'd expect an overall losing player to be more likely to have negative 500 hours samples, etc.
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Old 03-30-2017, 03:32 PM   #18440
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Thanks for sharing Angrist. Just curious, you have a large sample size saying your def a winner at $1/2. Why not move up to $2/5? Or maybe you already do as well.
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Old 03-30-2017, 03:41 PM   #18441
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Thanks for sharing Angrist. Just curious, you have a large sample size saying your def a winner at $1/2. Why not move up to $2/5? Or maybe you already do as well.
Couple reasons.

I have no roll for it. I pay for a lot of my vices out of poker winnings, as well as a few other expenses from time to time. Coupled with a few rather long breakeven stretches, I just don't have the spare cash to sit in a larger game. I've basically been operating on about $1-2K in "poker money" for over a year. Wouldn't want to sit at $2/5 without $5k rolled.

Second, there aren't many $2/5 games around. My local charity rooms don't run it, nor do the home games. But since most of those have $300 cap (or higher) BI's, they can play like $2/5 sometimes. So if I wanted to play $2/5 I'd have to drive downtown (~45 mins) to a casino I don't particularly like for it.

When I've observed those games, they tend to attract the stronger regs too. So when a $2/5 table opens a whale or two will go over, and 8 regs I'd rather not play against anyway, leaving the $1/2 games even fishier than they were before. Certainly needs to be a table to table decision.
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Old 03-30-2017, 04:49 PM   #18442
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It's time dependent too. From my observations day 2/5 is a goldmine as well weekends obviously. The midweek evening crowd is mostly grinding. Interestingly the couple of times I've been to the remodeled room, the 1/2 was fantastic regardless of day. With a $300 cap there was a lot more cheese in play too.
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Old 03-30-2017, 06:07 PM   #18443
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It's time dependent too. From my observations day 2/5 is a goldmine as well weekends obviously. The midweek evening crowd is mostly grinding. Interestingly the couple of times I've been to the remodeled room, the 1/2 was fantastic regardless of day. With a $300 cap there was a lot more cheese in play too.
Interesting. I tend to think weekday daytime grinds are full of nitregs no?
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Old 03-30-2017, 08:23 PM   #18444
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I wasn't thinking of that explicitly, but it is a good example. I skip MCC often for the same reason, and I've seen people wander up to the desk and inquire about a game in many markets, before going back to the blackjack pit when there are no seats.
flashes back to sitting on the floor of Greektown, back against the rock wall before there was such a thing as WIFI or even an Ipod
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Old 03-30-2017, 09:50 PM   #18445
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It's time dependent too. From my observations day 2/5 is a goldmine as well weekends obviously. The midweek evening crowd is mostly grinding. Interestingly the couple of times I've been to the remodeled room, the 1/2 was fantastic regardless of day. With a $300 cap there was a lot more cheese in play too.


I've found 1/3 to be a great middle ground. The players typically are as bad as 1/2 players, but it's $500 cap, so it's deeper like 2/5
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Old 03-30-2017, 09:59 PM   #18446
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Those of you in South Florida, specifically in Pompano at the Isle. How are the 1knl games compared to 500nl? It is a significant skill jump? The 500nl games are so good that I am wondering if I should even consider shotting 1k until I am seriously overrolled. Plus the tables often straddling every hand to $10 so it's really playing 2-5-10. Just curious what you all think.
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Old 03-30-2017, 10:20 PM   #18447
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I've found 1/3 to be a great middle ground. The players typically are as bad as 1/2 players, but it's $500 cap, so it's deeper like 2/5
There isn't any 1/3 that runs here. We have several $300 cap 1/2 games though.

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Interesting. I tend to think weekday daytime grinds are full of nitregs no?
It's definitely an anomaly of this place. I see a lot of semi employed degens playing the day 2/5. Granted, I haven't sat it yet, but extensive railing indicates it's just terrible.

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flashes back to sitting on the floor of Greektown, back against the rock wall before there was such a thing as WIFI or even an Ipod
Hahaha ya. That place is a hole. I've heard rumors that the action actually is pretty good. Haven't been there in a long time.
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Old 03-30-2017, 11:27 PM   #18448
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Those of you in South Florida, specifically in Pompano at the Isle. How are the 1knl games compared to 500nl? It is a significant skill jump? The 500nl games are so good that I am wondering if I should even consider shotting 1k until I am seriously overrolled. Plus the tables often straddling every hand to $10 so it's really playing 2-5-10. Just curious what you all think.
Might want to ask in the South Florida thread in LCP.
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Old 03-31-2017, 01:02 PM   #18449
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I played 1800+ hours in 2016 and Saturday followed by Friday were my least profitable days of the week (they were both badly negative and I had a good winning year). I only logged 425 hours across those two days because #sociallife but the point remains.

As someone who has probably played more hours than 99% of the active posters on this forum over the last 2+ years I am more convinced as time goes by that nobody has any clue what a statistically significant sample size is. Variance in live poker is remarkably enormous to the point that you can't explain it to someone that hasn't experienced the full cycle of highs and lows.

I used to be one of those people that thought "breaking even for 100 hours" was running bad. And then I played more and more and more and saw more and more and more and have begun to come around to the realization that poker is not the never ending ATM you think it is when you are running good.

Most importantly, it's made me realize that when you think you are running "average" you are actually running pretty good, when you think you are running "bad" you are most likely running average, and when you are cognizant enough to admit you are running "good" you are most likely sun running so hot that the thousands of hours that succeed that period will leave you wondering why the "good times" never return.

Just my .02 (not bad for post 3333)

this times 1 million

i put up a 12bb win rate over 1500 hours 2 years ago... in my last 1000 hours in the same exact player pool (maybe a little tougher) I have put up 1.5bb WR.... I had zero idea how hot I was running. 1000 hours isn't even close to enough to have any idea of winrate in my opinion.
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Old 03-31-2017, 01:58 PM   #18450
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i put up a 12bb win rate over 1500 hours 2 years ago... in my last 1000 hours in the same exact player pool (maybe a little tougher) I have put up 1.5bb WR....
Wow, nice example, imo.

Any guesses as to what you would attribute that to? Any significant changes in game conditions? You ran like god then / running not as good now? Player pool has caught on to your tendencies? Player pool has caught up in learning curve and isn't as ******ed? Rake increase? Plain 'ol variance? Or that ~1000 hours simply doesn't mean ****?

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