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Old 03-28-2017, 09:34 PM   #18401
23LBJ23
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Using 100/BB per standard dev and 100K hand sample size

o Win rate: 10BB/hr
 Chance profitable: 100%
 WR 95% confidence interval: 8.4 - 11.6BB/hr
 Multiple big downswings: 100-300BB
 Likely ‘maxim’ loss: 700BB+
 Typical longest losing streak: 100 hrs
o Win rate: 5BB/hr
 Chance profitable: 100%
 WR 95% confidence interval: 3.4 - 6.6BB/h
 Multiple big downswings: 150-650BB
 Likely ‘maxim’ loss: 1,000BB+
 Typical longest losing streak: 200 hrs
o Win rate: 2.5BB/hr
 Chance profitable: 99.9%
 WR 95% confidence interval: 0.9 – 4.1BB/h
 Multiple big downswings: 200-1,00BB
 Likely ‘maxim’ loss: 1,500BB+
 Typical longest losing streak: 300 hrs

Using 200/BB per standard dev and 100K hand sample size

o Win rate: 10BB/hr
 Chance profitable: 100%
 WR 95% confidence interval: 6.8 – 13.2BB/h
 Multiple big downswings: 200-1,000BB
 Likely ‘maxim’ loss: 1,700BB+
 Typical longest losing streak: 125 hrs
o Win rate: 5BB/hr
 Chance profitable: 99.9%
 WR 95% confidence interval: 1.8 – 8.2BB/h
 Multiple big downswings: 250-1,500BB
 Likely ‘maxim’ loss: 2,500BB+
 Typical longest losing streak: 250 hrs
o Win rate: 2.5BB/hr
 Chance profitable: 94.3%
 WR 95% confidence interval: -0.7 – 5.7BB/h
 Multiple big downswings: 350-2,500BB
 Likely ‘maxim’ loss: 4,000BB+
 Typical longest losing streak: 350 hrs
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Old 03-28-2017, 09:52 PM   #18402
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just be aware that 100K hands is a YUUUGE sample size in live poker, representing 3-4K hours. By the time that is realized, the game or the player (or both) have likely changed a ton.
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Old 03-28-2017, 10:05 PM   #18403
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Remember also SD is in BB/100 and not bb/hr. Most people here will say 100bb stdev is impossible in live unless you're playing 6/4.
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Old 03-28-2017, 10:08 PM   #18404
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Just be aware that 100K hands is a YUUUGE sample size in live poker, representing 3-4K hours. By the time that is realized, the game or the player (or both) have likely changed a ton.
Agreed. But we got to pick our poison here Garick. If we take a much smaller sample size, then we get silly outcomes based off the math. I wanted a statistically meaningful sample size.
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Old 03-28-2017, 10:10 PM   #18405
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Originally Posted by meale View Post
Remember also SD is in BB/100 and not bb/hr. Most people here will say 100bb stdev is impossible in live unless you're playing 6/4.
Yes I know, I converted some of the numbers because I felt it was easier to understand...at least for me. I conservatively assumed 25 hands per hour.
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Old 03-28-2017, 10:19 PM   #18406
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You know that you can't just multiply an hourly SD by 4 to get the SD/100, right?
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Old 03-28-2017, 10:26 PM   #18407
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Quote:
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You know that you can't just multiply an hourly SD by 4 to get the SD/100, right?
Yes of course haha. You got to give me more credit than that Garick! I didn't multiple to get sd/100. That's set by site. I also couldn't change BB/100 WR for calculation purposes, but I did convert it only for presentation of the data.

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Old 03-28-2017, 10:27 PM   #18408
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
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You know that you can't just multiply an hourly SD by 4 to get the SD/100, right?


Multiply by sqrt(4) = x2
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Old 03-28-2017, 10:35 PM   #18409
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Just checking. I have seen that mistake made ITT.
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Old 03-29-2017, 03:09 AM   #18410
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Regardless, 100bb/100 std is more indicative of a 6m online game which doesn't go multiway to the flop every ****ing time etc etc
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Old 03-29-2017, 05:23 AM   #18411
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by 23LBJ23 View Post
Last, “typical longest losing streak” is the longest losing streak measured in hours that occurred most often (from peak to trough). Not to be confused with longest BE streak.

Whats everyone’s thoughts on these numbers? Which seems more accurate…if any? I know this topic comes up frequently so hopefully this provides some value to people. I think regardless of whether this is accurate though, on a relative basis between SD and WR, I think some interesting observations can be drawn.
Not sure about that one because a common down swing might not be the ones that most affect the bottom line. Sounds like it would be dominated by a few stale patches. I mean the app is the app but I would rather ask it "what is the avg # of 200bb losses a 10bb winner will experience of 100k hours?
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Old 03-29-2017, 08:26 AM   #18412
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This may or may not be interesting to someone.

In 2016 I played 173 hrs of 2/5 on Tuesdays at a win rate of -4.24/hr. My worst day of the week by a very large margin.
In 2017 Ive played 57 hrs of 2/5 on Tuesdays at a win rate of $118/hr. My best day of the week by a very large margin.
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Old 03-29-2017, 08:53 AM   #18413
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That is a meaningless sample as evidenced by your range of results. You're confidence interval on that has to be something like 12%.
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Old 03-29-2017, 08:59 AM   #18414
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Originally Posted by DeadMoneyWalking View Post
Not sure about that one because a common down swing might not be the ones that most affect the bottom line. Sounds like it would be dominated by a few stale patches. I mean the app is the app but I would rather ask it "what is the avg # of 200bb losses a 10bb winner will experience of 100k hours?
That's not the point of the post. I posted it for people to drawn observations to help or understand BRM better and to understand what's normal when it comes to variance. Meaning, assuming the 100/BB SD is a close proximity (just assuming, not saying it is), then you can expect at some point to experience a 1,000BB downswing if your a 5BB/hr winner.
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Old 03-29-2017, 09:56 AM   #18415
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
That is a meaningless sample as evidenced by your range of results. You're confidence interval on that has to be something like 12%.
Yeah, I know...but there are some days of the week in certain industries that are worse than others. Im sure Tuesdays are pretty bad in the restaurant and movie theater business. That's why you see coupons for those days. To drum up business.

Last year it really seemed like Tuesday was a really slow day for action in the poker room. Fish and rec players gamble it up on weekends. Not so much on Tuesdays. I started specifically scheduling errands, going to the beach ect, on Tuesdays. This year has been totally opposite but like you said the sample size is clearly way to small to make any observations other than its a crazy anomaly from 2016 to 2017. It was like someone flipped a switch.
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Old 03-29-2017, 09:59 AM   #18416
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Maybe you need to play better poker when the fish and rec players aren't gambling it up.
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Old 03-29-2017, 10:15 AM   #18417
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Maybe you need to play better poker when the fish and rec players aren't gambling it up.
Maybe I am and that's why I went from -4$/hr to $118/hr?
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Old 03-29-2017, 10:18 AM   #18418
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Game conditions are totally relevant. Interestingly I hit the casino last night at 10PM and played on an insane table for 4 hrs. Tuesday could be the new Friday.


I made $44 which was triple my current hourly rate for the year.


Spikerunningbreakevenraw22
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Old 03-29-2017, 12:02 PM   #18419
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Just be aware that 100K hands is a YUUUGE sample size in live poker, representing 3-4K hours. By the time that is realized, the game or the player (or both) have likely changed a ton.
+1

It's taken me 7 years to get to my 3285 hour sample in my 1/3 NL game, which is probably in the 100K hand ballpark.

First 2000 hours: 9.4 bb/hr (I am the best)
Last 1285 hours: 4.3 bb/hr (I am the worst)

Moving forward, what confidence does knowing my overall winrate is 7.4 bb/hr give me? Absolutely none whatsoever.

Geverythingchanges,renderingpastresultsalmostmeani ngless,imoG
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Old 03-29-2017, 12:18 PM   #18420
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
+1

It's taken me 7 years to get to my 3285 hour sample in my 1/3 NL game, which is probably in the 100K hand ballpark.

First 2000 hours: 9.4 bb/hr (I am the best)
Last 1285 hours: 4.3 bb/hr (I feel bad, but am still winning more than like 90 percent of my opponents)

Moving forward, what confidence does knowing my overall winrate is 7.4 bb/hr give me? Absolutely none whatsoever.

Geverythingchanges,renderingpastresultsalmostmeani ngless,imoG
FIFY.

Btw, I just followed my largest upswing (20-3 over 23 days +7500 including 14 straight wins) with my largest downswing (8 of 9 losing sessions for -$3,825).

Poker is funny.
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Old 03-29-2017, 12:25 PM   #18421
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
+1

It's taken me 7 years to get to my 3285 hour sample in my 1/3 NL game, which is probably in the 100K hand ballpark.

First 2000 hours: 9.4 bb/hr (I am the best)
Last 1285 hours: 4.3 bb/hr (I am the worst)

Moving forward, what confidence does knowing my overall winrate is 7.4 bb/hr give me? Absolutely none whatsoever.

Geverythingchanges,renderingpastresultsalmostmeani ngless,imoG
First. A professional can achieve these results in 2 years playing 40 hours weeks or 3 years at 25 hours a week.

Second, the post intentions where to wrap our minds around expected volatility that great, good, and ok player should expect. Not how much money you expect to earn given current WR.

Third, your post about how you earned a lower BB in the last third of your 1,285 hours doesn't mean your WR of 7.4 bb/hr is worthless. Yes, since your ss goes away back, your 4.3/bb hr is prob closer to reality. But, you should expect to go on long deviations from your true mean. 7.4 BB/hr is simply an average. To many people think in binary. 100% meaningful or 0%. My point is, there is definitely value, meaning, and conclusions that could be drawn from the WR.
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Old 03-29-2017, 12:27 PM   #18422
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nicname View Post
FIFY.

Btw, I just followed my largest upswing 20-3 over 23 days +7500 including 14 straight wins (and tied for longest session win streak of 14), with my largest downswing (8 of 9 losing sessions for -$3,825).

Poker is funny.
Ha, honestly I'm totally cool with any + winrate and don't think it should be undervalued, especially as conditions worsen. Little tough to stomach personally due to where I've been, but overall it's just a stupid game I play for fun, so I'm cool with it.

My winstreak record is 32-3, over a 6 month period in 2012/2013, back when I knew how to play poker, ldo. I can't even conceive of accomplishing something like that now.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 03-29-2017, 04:27 PM   #18423
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Yeah, I know...but there are some days of the week in certain industries that are worse than others. Im sure Tuesdays are pretty bad in the restaurant and movie theater business. That's why you see coupons for those days. To drum up business.

Last year it really seemed like Tuesday was a really slow day for action in the poker room. Fish and rec players gamble it up on weekends. Not so much on Tuesdays. I started specifically scheduling errands, going to the beach ect, on Tuesdays. This year has been totally opposite but like you said the sample size is clearly way to small to make any observations other than its a crazy anomaly from 2016 to 2017. It was like someone flipped a switch.
There haven't been enough Tuesdays in 2017 to derive anything from results. 2016 sounds like feedback where you cut out some of the 52 Tuesdays. I use the same circular logic with Fridays. But you may be right.
IMO the first glance test of game quality is more accurate than a sample of 12 sessions.
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Old 03-29-2017, 04:38 PM   #18424
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During past 1,100 hours, my Tuesday hourly is $101.85.

Guess I should switch up my schedule, or could be because total Tuesday hours during that time is 5




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Old 03-30-2017, 01:03 AM   #18425
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It's all statistical noise. I am crushing Thursdays in like 200 hours or so and it's the best day of the week for me.

Since people talk a lot about how many hours you need in order to get an accurate picture of your win rate, people should look at their weekday subsamples in order to get a glimpse of alternate starts in their poker playing career. Over a hundred hours on Sundays I am doing -7bb/hr for example. I know for a fact that I am not a losing player, but conceivably, that's how my first 100+ hours could have gone. And so on.

What also may be interesting is this: I think a reasonable assumption is that for most serious players, Saturday should be the most profitable day of the week followed by Friday, then probably by Thursday or Sunday and then by Wednesday, Tuesday, Monday.

On Saturdays and Fridays you should be winning more than average and on Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays lower than average.

When you have a relatively small overall sample, like let's say 1000 hours, those weekday subsamples should be all over the place, in all probability not conforming to the assumption I laid above. But as those weekday subsamples get big enough, they should start conforming to that assumption. So maybe after you have 500 or 1000 for each weekday, you may start getting a decent picture of the true difference among days.

I think my Saturdays are like that. In my first 200 hours, Saturday was not a big profitable day for me, winning 5 bb/hr less than average. But now that I ve reached 600 hours or so, I am winning 2 bb/hr more which does make sense. It could still be statistical noise though.
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