so much of this

I appreciate the votes of confidence, will update when I begin taking shots. Also, I have a thread going in Poker Goals if you guys want to sub and follow along.

You seem like a dude with a decent head on your shoulders. That, plus a job is the most important part.

As long as your ego isn't so big that it would hurt your chances of being able to transition back to 1/2 after taking a 2/5 hit, I say go for it.

$5k seems plenty enough for a part-timer with a decent job. Good luck.

Side note: thought this thread was dead.

fwiw JaceTheMind I come from a similar path. I have a solid full-time job. I don't have much debt/heavy financial obligations like many here do. I play maybe 50 hours a month as well, sometimes less, sometimes more. The money I win for poker is like 70% for just poker bank roll and 30% for recreational use (girlfriend, vacations, etc.)

Had a roll of about $6000 and shot took at $2/5. Ran pretty well and have about 80 hours under my belt now.

Like people here said, I think it is good to have like goals and thresholds i.e. if you hit $X000 then you will move down to $1/3 again. It is tough to check the ego and move back after you have some run good at $2/5.

In the end it's all about making responsible choices as it pertains to your own life and it's hard for people to tell you what is exactly right for you to do. But I agree with spikeraw22 that if poker is all recreational, then you can shot take but you want to set a threshold at like, for example, 15 buy-ins for $1/3 so that you know you can keep playing/grinding $1/3 stress free.

Glad to hear from someone else in a similar position.

I think having hard set numbers will make moving up and if necessary down, a bit easier.

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#Mark it to read#

thoughts on winrates on ignition for US player:

50 NL and 100 NL winrate for an average winning TAG ?

Might want to ask in an internet poker forum. This one is for live.

cross-quoting from MGM National Harbor thread, anyone wanna comment on this? Rake is 10%/$5 max and jackpot drop is $1 at $10 and $1 at $30 iirc

His rake/bbj estimate per player is off a bit. Has to be lower than that. As for the game, I'm sure it is quite beatable.

I mean tighten up the tipping on the small to mid pots and you're basically at the more and more common 5+1, it is what it is you need to be a lot better than your opponents to beat most llsnl rake traps, etc/not sure what else you want to know.

7 out of 30 is a big deal and adds up quite quickly. I played there opening week most people at 1/3 bought in for less than 300 even though it was 500 max. 2/5 was decent action with 1-2 pro/grinders per table.

I guess a better question is, and this may have been discussed somewhere in this giant thread, does anyone have any maths that calculates what the hourly cost is based on x+y rake/jp?

that $20/hr figure seems too high to me as well

it'd be 5 out of 30 but yeah even that adds up fast.

26 times 7 divided by 9 is greater than 20 just for example...

Right 5/30 and 7/50. Basically every pot is getting 5 taken out and I didn't find the average stack depth at 1/3 to be enough to compensate.

I could buy-in for $100 and beat this game each and every month.

well that specific game is 1/3 10max $100-500 so the stacks are pretty ok versus $100-300, but you are definitely making me regret playing as many hours as I have at the MDL 1/2 $100-300 after they switched to the same drop structure.

Hey everyone. So I found this site called pokerdope.com that allows you to measure volatility of playing poker assuming a standard dev and win rate. I thought it was interesting and may add to the discussion. So I played around with 6 types of situations, both simulated over 100,000 hands. Situation 1: I assumed 100BB SD, then simulated a 10 BB/hr, 5 BB/hr, and then 2.5 BB/hr winner. I assumed a 200BB SD for situation 2 applying same win rates.

The first two numbers, “chance profitable” and “win rate 95% confidence interval” is taken directly from the site. The former is the chance you will be profitable after 100K hands, while the latter is the lower/upper bound win rate of a 95% confidence inter (i.e. data 2 SDs below/above mean assuming norm distr).

For the next 3 numbers, I used my eyeball to make an estimate based off the graphical representation of the data. So its certainly more subjective, but I just wanted to quantify the graph in some way. “Multiple big downswings”, is the lower/upper bound of a ‘typical’ downswing. Meaning, over the course of 100K hands, a player typically loses xyz to abc BBs several times. The “likely maxim loss” is the greatest downswing you expect to encounter. I realize it certainty can be more, but after simulating it several times, this is the number that kept recurring the most. Last, “typical longest losing streak” is the longest losing streak measured in hours that occurred most often (from peak to trough). Not to be confused with longest BE streak.

Whats everyone’s thoughts on these numbers? Which seems more accurate…if any? I know this topic comes up frequently so hopefully this provides some value to people. I think regardless of whether this is accurate though, on a relative basis between SD and WR, I think some interesting observations can be drawn.

Using 100/BB per standard dev and 100K hand sample size

o Win rate: 10BB/hr
 Chance profitable: 100%
 WR 95% confidence interval: 8.4 - 11.6BB/hr
 Multiple big downswings: 100-300BB
 Likely ‘maxim’ loss: 700BB+
 Typical longest losing streak: 100 hrs
o Win rate: 5BB/hr
 Chance profitable: 100%
 WR 95% confidence interval: 3.4 - 6.6BB/h
 Multiple big downswings: 150-650BB
 Likely ‘maxim’ loss: 1,000BB+
 Typical longest losing streak: 200 hrs
o Win rate: 2.5BB/hr
 Chance profitable: 99.9%
 WR 95% confidence interval: 0.9 – 4.1BB/h
 Multiple big downswings: 200-1,00BB
 Likely ‘maxim’ loss: 1,500BB+
 Typical longest losing streak: 300 hrs

Using 200/BB per standard dev and 100K hand sample size

o Win rate: 10BB/hr
 Chance profitable: 100%
 WR 95% confidence interval: 6.8 – 13.2BB/h
 Multiple big downswings: 200-1,000BB
 Likely ‘maxim’ loss: 1,700BB+
 Typical longest losing streak: 125 hrs
o Win rate: 5BB/hr
 Chance profitable: 99.9%
 WR 95% confidence interval: 1.8 – 8.2BB/h
 Multiple big downswings: 250-1,500BB
 Likely ‘maxim’ loss: 2,500BB+
 Typical longest losing streak: 250 hrs
o Win rate: 2.5BB/hr
 Chance profitable: 94.3%
 WR 95% confidence interval: -0.7 – 5.7BB/h
 Multiple big downswings: 350-2,500BB
 Likely ‘maxim’ loss: 4,000BB+
 Typical longest losing streak: 350 hrs

Just be aware that 100K hands is a YUUUGE sample size in live poker, representing 3-4K hours. By the time that is realized, the game or the player (or both) have likely changed a ton.

Remember also SD is in BB/100 and not bb/hr. Most people here will say 100bb stdev is impossible in live unless you're playing 6/4.

Agreed. But we got to pick our poison here Garick. If we take a much smaller sample size, then we get silly outcomes based off the math. I wanted a statistically meaningful sample size.

Yes I know, I converted some of the numbers because I felt it was easier to understand...at least for me. I conservatively assumed 25 hands per hour.

You know that you can't just multiply an hourly SD by 4 to get the SD/100, right?