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Old 03-24-2017, 12:31 PM   #18376
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by JacetheMind View Post
Background: I have a tiny sample size and have no aspirations of turning pro. I have a job, and am trying to keep my poker roll segregated. Play approx. 50hrs monthly.
Goals: I am trying to start shot taking 2-5nl in the next few months and hopefully play 2-5nl on the regular by the end of the year.
Results so far:
YTD
182.5 hrs played at 1/2nl
+$4587
12.5bb/hr

My idea is to wait until I have a certain amount in my roll, then take a few buyins to 2/5. If I lose that move back to 1/2 to build again and rinse/repeat. Do this until I stick at 2/5.

Bad plan? Best plan?
The most important part of the plan is that you have a job, so really not much wrong you could do here poker-wise.

I'm guessing you have a handle on some of the regs that play 1/2 and 2/5 in your room? If so, perhaps instead of shot taking at a predetermined time, perhaps instead shot take when the 2/5 table looks good, and then drop back to the 1/2 table when the 2/5 table gets bad.

GcluelessshottakingnoobG
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Old 03-24-2017, 12:34 PM   #18377
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

No I mean don't shot take 2/5 until you can lose every dollar in your wallet and still be rolled for 1/2. Like I see some people take a shot at 2/5 with $2k in their roll. Then they lose 1k and the next time they play even 1/2 they're praying not to run bad. Last time I took 2/5 shots I had 7-8k in my roll so losing a couple bi was a bummer but I was still fully rolled for 1/2.
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Old 03-24-2017, 12:35 PM   #18378
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
The most important part of the plan is that you have a job, so really not much wrong you could do here poker-wise.

I'm guessing you have a handle on some of the regs that play 1/2 and 2/5 in your room? If so, perhaps instead of shot taking at a predetermined time, perhaps instead shot take when the 2/5 table looks good, and then drop back to the 1/2 table when the 2/5 table gets bad.

GcluelessshottakingnoobG
I play nights and weekends at the Isle, so honestly everything under the 5/10 always looks pretty good. I definitely know the 1/2 regs pretty well, but I've never played with most of the 2/5 ones.

2/5 usually has 4+ tables going when I'm there.
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Old 03-24-2017, 12:37 PM   #18379
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
No I mean don't shot take 2/5 until you can lose every dollar in your wallet and still be rolled for 1/2. Like I see some people take a shot at 2/5 with $2k in their roll. Then they lose 1k and the next time they play even 1/2 they're praying not to run bad. Last time I took 2/5 shots I had 7-8k in my roll so losing a couple bi was a bummer but I was still fully rolled for 1/2.
Gotchya, yea that makes sense to me. Was thinking about taking a 1k shot when I have 6k in the roll.
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Old 03-24-2017, 12:41 PM   #18380
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thr specifics are totally individual. If you're cool with a 5k roll for 1/2 then absolutely take your shot. The other thing to consider is opportunity cost of NOT taking the 2/5 shot. If you can crush 2/5 you're wasting money and time by not playing as soon as possible. I'm a good example. I should have gone to 2/5 much sooner than I did. The lost $$ meant I had to burn my entire roll later on life stuff and I'm still grinding my way back through 1/2 to recover. Had I gone after it more aggressively perhaps I'd have had the capital to not have to quit poker for a year.

Last edited by spikeraw22; 03-24-2017 at 12:42 PM. Reason: F my phone!
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Old 03-24-2017, 01:01 PM   #18381
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by JacetheMind View Post
I play nights and weekends at the Isle, so honestly everything under the 5/10 always looks pretty good. I definitely know the 1/2 regs pretty well, but I've never played with most of the 2/5 ones.

2/5 usually has 4+ tables going when I'm there.
Just jump into 2/5 - take a chance. Judging from most of your posts, seems like you take good lines most of the time and pretty decent thought process, from what I can tell.
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Old 03-24-2017, 01:19 PM   #18382
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Thr specifics are totally individual. If you're cool with a 5k roll for 1/2 then absolutely take your shot. The other thing to consider is opportunity cost of NOT taking the 2/5 shot. If you can crush 2/5 you're wasting money and time by not playing as soon as possible. I'm a good example. I should have gone to 2/5 much sooner than I did. The lost $$ meant I had to burn my entire roll later on life stuff and I'm still grinding my way back through 1/2 to recover. Had I gone after it more aggressively perhaps I'd have had the capital to not have to quit poker for a year.


so much of this
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Old 03-24-2017, 02:19 PM   #18383
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I appreciate the votes of confidence, will update when I begin taking shots. Also, I have a thread going in Poker Goals if you guys want to sub and follow along.
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Old 03-24-2017, 05:30 PM   #18384
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You seem like a dude with a decent head on your shoulders. That, plus a job is the most important part.

As long as your ego isn't so big that it would hurt your chances of being able to transition back to 1/2 after taking a 2/5 hit, I say go for it.

$5k seems plenty enough for a part-timer with a decent job. Good luck.

Side note: thought this thread was dead.
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Old 03-24-2017, 06:28 PM   #18385
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I appreciate the votes of confidence, will update when I begin taking shots. Also, I have a thread going in Poker Goals if you guys want to sub and follow along.


fwiw JaceTheMind I come from a similar path. I have a solid full-time job. I don't have much debt/heavy financial obligations like many here do. I play maybe 50 hours a month as well, sometimes less, sometimes more. The money I win for poker is like 70% for just poker bank roll and 30% for recreational use (girlfriend, vacations, etc.)

Had a roll of about $6000 and shot took at $2/5. Ran pretty well and have about 80 hours under my belt now.

Like people here said, I think it is good to have like goals and thresholds i.e. if you hit $X000 then you will move down to $1/3 again. It is tough to check the ego and move back after you have some run good at $2/5.

In the end it's all about making responsible choices as it pertains to your own life and it's hard for people to tell you what is exactly right for you to do. But I agree with spikeraw22 that if poker is all recreational, then you can shot take but you want to set a threshold at like, for example, 15 buy-ins for $1/3 so that you know you can keep playing/grinding $1/3 stress free.
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Old 03-24-2017, 06:32 PM   #18386
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Glad to hear from someone else in a similar position.

I think having hard set numbers will make moving up and if necessary down, a bit easier.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Tapatalk
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Old 03-25-2017, 03:14 PM   #18387
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

#Mark it to read#
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Old 03-26-2017, 10:28 PM   #18388
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

thoughts on winrates on ignition for US player:

50 NL and 100 NL winrate for an average winning TAG ?
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Old 03-26-2017, 10:56 PM   #18389
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Might want to ask in an internet poker forum. This one is for live.
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Old 03-26-2017, 11:12 PM   #18390
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

cross-quoting from MGM National Harbor thread, anyone wanna comment on this? Rake is 10%/$5 max and jackpot drop is $1 at $10 and $1 at $30 iirc

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Originally Posted by BillyTex88 View Post
When you get sat at a table full of nitty grinders at this cardroom, you should leave or switch games. You cant play hu pots here. Rake/BBJ is like $20+ p/h for each player.
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Old 03-26-2017, 11:20 PM   #18391
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

His rake/bbj estimate per player is off a bit. Has to be lower than that. As for the game, I'm sure it is quite beatable.
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Old 03-26-2017, 11:26 PM   #18392
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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cross-quoting from MGM National Harbor thread, anyone wanna comment on this? Rake is 10%/$5 max and jackpot drop is $1 at $10 and $1 at $30 iirc
I mean tighten up the tipping on the small to mid pots and you're basically at the more and more common 5+1, it is what it is you need to be a lot better than your opponents to beat most llsnl rake traps, etc/not sure what else you want to know.
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Old 03-26-2017, 11:30 PM   #18393
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

7 out of 30 is a big deal and adds up quite quickly. I played there opening week most people at 1/3 bought in for less than 300 even though it was 500 max. 2/5 was decent action with 1-2 pro/grinders per table.

Last edited by johnnyBuz; 03-26-2017 at 11:39 PM.
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Old 03-26-2017, 11:30 PM   #18394
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I guess a better question is, and this may have been discussed somewhere in this giant thread, does anyone have any maths that calculates what the hourly cost is based on x+y rake/jp?

that $20/hr figure seems too high to me as well
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Old 03-26-2017, 11:31 PM   #18395
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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7 out of 30 is a big deal and adds up quite quickly.


it'd be 5 out of 30 but yeah even that adds up fast.
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Old 03-26-2017, 11:33 PM   #18396
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26 times 7 divided by 9 is greater than 20 just for example...
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Old 03-26-2017, 11:41 PM   #18397
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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it'd be 5 out of 30 but yeah even that adds up fast.
Right 5/30 and 7/50. Basically every pot is getting 5 taken out and I didn't find the average stack depth at 1/3 to be enough to compensate.
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Old 03-26-2017, 11:48 PM   #18398
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I could buy-in for $100 and beat this game each and every month.
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Old 03-26-2017, 11:48 PM   #18399
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Right 5/30 and 7/50. Basically every pot is getting 5 taken out and I didn't find the average stack depth at 1/3 to be enough to compensate.


well that specific game is 1/3 10max $100-500 so the stacks are pretty ok versus $100-300, but you are definitely making me regret playing as many hours as I have at the MDL 1/2 $100-300 after they switched to the same drop structure.
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Old 03-28-2017, 09:34 PM   #18400
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hey everyone. So I found this site called pokerdope.com that allows you to measure volatility of playing poker assuming a standard dev and win rate. I thought it was interesting and may add to the discussion. So I played around with 6 types of situations, both simulated over 100,000 hands. Situation 1: I assumed 100BB SD, then simulated a 10 BB/hr, 5 BB/hr, and then 2.5 BB/hr winner. I assumed a 200BB SD for situation 2 applying same win rates.

The first two numbers, “chance profitable” and “win rate 95% confidence interval” is taken directly from the site. The former is the chance you will be profitable after 100K hands, while the latter is the lower/upper bound win rate of a 95% confidence inter (i.e. data 2 SDs below/above mean assuming norm distr).

For the next 3 numbers, I used my eyeball to make an estimate based off the graphical representation of the data. So its certainly more subjective, but I just wanted to quantify the graph in some way. “Multiple big downswings”, is the lower/upper bound of a ‘typical’ downswing. Meaning, over the course of 100K hands, a player typically loses xyz to abc BBs several times. The “likely maxim loss” is the greatest downswing you expect to encounter. I realize it certainty can be more, but after simulating it several times, this is the number that kept recurring the most. Last, “typical longest losing streak” is the longest losing streak measured in hours that occurred most often (from peak to trough). Not to be confused with longest BE streak.

Whats everyone’s thoughts on these numbers? Which seems more accurate…if any? I know this topic comes up frequently so hopefully this provides some value to people. I think regardless of whether this is accurate though, on a relative basis between SD and WR, I think some interesting observations can be drawn.
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