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Old 02-28-2017, 03:53 AM   #18326
nocsious
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So i'm about to get called a troll...or complete Bull**** artist.

I've been winning at a God like level since I started playing live again around Thanksgiving 2016. Perhaps I'm not calculating BB/100 correctly as I ran it through a variance calculator. Here are the numbers I used playing mostly $1,3 NLHE but a little bit of $1,$2 NLHE.

$2511 total winnings
14 sessions
35 hours of live play estimated (i'm only playing around 2-4 hours, closer to 2)
$71.74 / hour
23.9 bb/hour
79 bb/100 hand (assuming 30 hands per hour live)

Am I calculating BB/100 correctly given my assumptions? I'm not quitting my day job...
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Old 02-28-2017, 04:04 AM   #18327
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35 hours is meaningless and nobody cares about BB/100 this is live poker.

Nobody is going to call you a troll because there is nothing unusual about those results over a small sample size. You are running hot and playing short sessions so you are cashing out after your big hands/double ups etc. at your session peak.
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Old 02-28-2017, 04:13 AM   #18328
ibelieveyouoweme$80k
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35 hours? you should quit your day job.

My first 35 hours in 2017: $2,345.

Good luck, though.
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Old 02-28-2017, 04:18 AM   #18329
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I know I'm running white hot. I'm beating pokersnowie too at 7.5 bb /100, although that's only 2500 hands. Snowie kills me at showdown though.
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Old 02-28-2017, 04:22 AM   #18330
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Originally Posted by ibelieveyouoweme$80k View Post
35 hours? you should quit your day job.

My first 35 hours in 2017: $2,345.

Good luck, though.
Yeah well I clear like 115k per year plus or minus 10k in commissions so I'll take that variance over 1,3 nlhe.
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Old 02-28-2017, 04:38 AM   #18331
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Originally Posted by nocsious View Post
Yeah well I clear like 115k per year plus or minus 10k in commissions so I'll take that variance over 1,3 nlhe.


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So i'm about to get called a troll...or complete Bull**** artist.
No. 35 hours is what many players would call a weekend of poker.
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Old 02-28-2017, 06:49 AM   #18332
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I had several W2G's in the last couple years from slots. This year was my best year with 6 wins totaling 25k. I would never report poker wins or other casino games, but if you hit jackpot wins where they require paperwork, you must report it. I even out my big wins in past year for $25,000 with withdrawal receipts and reported all these casinos losses and end up not owing taxes on it. For poker, I just don't think I would bother unless you are really earning a living at it, not for anything under 40-50k a year. Its not really traceable especially if you have other income to compliment it. Save that cash, buy a rolex, laptop, cool toys and stuff with it.
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Electronic logs are fine, letter of the law wants paper/pen but courts aren't stupid. Thank god for activist judges using their brains.
Which law specifies that you have to use a pen?

As I understand it the law says to keep records of all of your income and expenses and that includes poker. For gambling they want a record for each session. The IRS seldom enforces it on the average gamble because they aren't making a profit. The most common scenario is you have a lot of wins or one big jackpot, and want to offset them with your losses. In that case you will want to have records.
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Old 02-28-2017, 08:03 AM   #18333
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Which law specifies that you have to use a pen?



As I understand it the law says to keep records of all of your income and expenses and that includes poker. For gambling they want a record for each session. The IRS seldom enforces it on the average gamble because they aren't making a profit. The most common scenario is you have a lot of wins or one big jackpot, and want to offset them with your losses. In that case you will want to have records.


I was told hand written records by a CPA like 5-7 years ago. Laws could have changed. He could just have a different interpretation than you. Regardless, I would check with a tax profession if I was in that situation
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Old 02-28-2017, 09:24 AM   #18334
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I would ask Slim.

I have never been audited but I know you have to itemize your losing sessions so you must have those records by session to even file correctly.
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Old 02-28-2017, 10:40 AM   #18335
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Record in February = 16 wins, no losses. 67hrs @ $67/hr for +$4500 all at 1/2. Im obv running great but my room introduced some new rules, including straddles of up to $10 utg, which the occasional player does every round. Utg+1 can double straddle to 20, etc but thats pretty rare. 10% rake up to $5. $400 max buy in. Could this game potentially be as profitable as some 2/5 games?
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Old 02-28-2017, 10:43 AM   #18336
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Record in February = 16 wins, no losses. 67hrs @ $67/hr for +$4500 all at 1/2. Im obv running great but my room introduced some new rules, including straddles of up to $10 utg, which the occasional player does every round. Utg+1 can double straddle to 20, etc but thats pretty rare. 10% rake up to $5. $400 max buy in. Could this game potentially be as profitable as some 2/5 games?


Probably more so if 2/5 is the top game in your room. Once some of the smarter 2/5 players realize how much of a printing press this will be, it might get harder
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Old 02-28-2017, 11:03 AM   #18337
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Probably more so if 2/5 is the top game in your room. Once some of the smarter 2/5 players realize how much of a printing press this will be, it might get harder
I wouldn't count on this happening. Players are pretty dumb when it comes to choosing between stakes. Enjoy your gold mine.
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Old 02-28-2017, 11:21 AM   #18338
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Yeah, I don't see at all how this is a "gold mine." The player pool is the most important factor, IMO. I've played in games with similar structures which weren't very good.
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Old 02-28-2017, 11:23 AM   #18339
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Record in February = 16 wins, no losses. 67hrs @ $67/hr for +$4500 all at 1/2. Im obv running great but my room introduced some new rules, including straddles of up to $10 utg, which the occasional player does every round. Utg+1 can double straddle to 20, etc but thats pretty rare. 10% rake up to $5. $400 max buy in. Could this game potentially be as profitable as some 2/5 games?
I would say even more so. You're basically playing 2/5 but with bad 1/2 players. It doesn't get any better than that.

If a really good 2/5 payer sat with a whole table of 1/2 players and they raised the stakes to 2/5, the really good player could sustain $60+/hr. Of course, if the 2/5 players figure out whats going on, some of them will surely get into the game and then everything changes. In my room we play with a 100BB max buy in. Every now and then there is an interest list for a "deep" 2/5 game with 200BB max buy in, but the list always includes several good 5/10 players.
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Old 02-28-2017, 11:36 AM   #18340
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Originally Posted by niceguy22 View Post
Record in February = 16 wins, no losses. 67hrs @ $67/hr for +$4500 all at 1/2. Im obv running great but my room introduced some new rules, including straddles of up to $10 utg, which the occasional player does every round. Utg+1 can double straddle to 20, etc but thats pretty rare. 10% rake up to $5. $400 max buy in. Could this game potentially be as profitable as some 2/5 games?
I'm a big believer that game profitability depends on player quality, stack size, open raise sizing and then stakes, in that order. If you're playing with bad 1/2 players in a situation where people often get in for $400 and there are a lot of straddles, that sounds better than a lot of 2/5 games.

My main game is 1/2, but uncapped and people usually buy in for $300 or rebuy for a lot more. Usually 2 or 3 straddles per round. My rake is much, much worse than yours (10% capped at $13) and I tip too much because there are only a couple of dealers and I'm friendly with them. It's an underground room, so you get a wide assortment of players, from those who play 2/5 or 5/10 at a casino to complete newbs to total maniacs. Almost everyone has money though. Over the past year (which is as far back as my records go) I'm winning $46/hour over a 276.5 hour sample. I've had significant run good here, but I think $30/hour is sustainable in this game and you probably save at least $10/hour on rake and tips compared to me plus you have a bigger game for better players to go to, which I don't.
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Old 02-28-2017, 12:54 PM   #18341
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Average stack depth is probably the most important factor aside from skill level of the game. I'll play dee 1/2 all day as opposed to standard 2/5. You can't win chips that aren't on the table.
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Old 02-28-2017, 01:04 PM   #18342
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Average stack depth is probably the most important factor aside from skill level of the game. I'll play dee 1/2 all day as opposed to standard 2/5. You can't win chips that aren't on the table.
This has been my biggest struggle at 1/2nl. A lot of the tables are so shallow that when I buy in for 150bb I have the table covered. I probably need to be requesting table changes more aggressively fwiw.
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Old 02-28-2017, 01:31 PM   #18343
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I'm a big believer that game profitability depends on player quality, stack size, open raise sizing and then stakes, in that order. If you're playing with bad 1/2 players in a situation where people often get in for $400 and there are a lot of straddles, that sounds better than a lot of 2/5 games.
+1
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Old 02-28-2017, 02:14 PM   #18344
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Sounds like you are simply experiencing variance playing in a game that plays bigger than you are used to or even likely rolled for. I find it interesting that people say they would rather play in a deep game, and yet then get all giddy when players straddle huge, which effectively makes starting stacks very shallow. If you were to buy-in to a game where someone straddles to $20 in a 1/2 game with a $400 (200bb) max then you would essentially start out at 20bbs effective.

BTW, having 16 wins in a row is not a gold mine. It's called running well above expectations. It happens.
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Old 02-28-2017, 02:19 PM   #18345
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I heard from many of people buying in short for building a bankroll is OK. It just sucks because u have to be patient


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Old 02-28-2017, 02:25 PM   #18346
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If you are playing on a short roll then you have to play patiently anyways. In general, the more patiently you play the more important it is to buy-in deep because you need to get paid when you make hands and will not often win with air.
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Old 02-28-2017, 03:02 PM   #18347
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Sounds like you are simply experiencing variance playing in a game that plays bigger than you are used to or even likely rolled for. I find it interesting that people say they would rather play in a deep game, and yet then get all giddy when players straddle huge, which effectively makes starting stacks very shallow. If you were to buy-in to a game where someone straddles to $20 in a 1/2 game with a $400 (200bb) max then you would essentially start out at 20bbs effective.

BTW, having 16 wins in a row is not a gold mine. It's called running well above expectations. It happens.
People round here have started calling me gamelord. And who am I to stop them?
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Old 02-28-2017, 03:04 PM   #18348
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In all seriousness I know Im running super good. Even my winrate from my last 400 hrs I probably wont keep up, but its pretty cool while it lasts
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Old 02-28-2017, 06:37 PM   #18349
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I would say even more so. You're basically playing 2/5 but with bad 1/2 players. It doesn't get any better than that.

If a really good 2/5 payer sat with a whole table of 1/2 players and they raised the stakes to 2/5, the really good player could sustain $60+/hr. Of course, if the 2/5 players figure out whats going on, some of them will surely get into the game and then everything changes. In my room we play with a 100BB max buy in. Every now and then there is an interest list for a "deep" 2/5 game with 200BB max buy in, but the list always includes several good 5/10 players.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
Sounds like you are simply experiencing variance playing in a game that plays bigger than you are used to or even likely rolled for. I find it interesting that people say they would rather play in a deep game, and yet then get all giddy when players straddle huge, which effectively makes starting stacks very shallow. If you were to buy-in to a game where someone straddles to $20 in a 1/2 game with a $400 (200bb) max then you would essentially start out at 20bbs effective.

BTW, having 16 wins in a row is not a gold mine. It's called running well above expectations. It happens.
If you are playing in a deep stacked 1/2 game with large raises you may theoretically be playing 2/5 with reduced ante. Straddles merely restore normal blind levels, but it won't play normally because most of the table is completely unaware of this.
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Old 03-02-2017, 10:43 PM   #18350
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2017 results through 3/2/17:

Total hours = 242.5 (96% at $2/$5, 4% at $1/$2)
Profit = $9863
Hourly = $40.67
Total Sessions = 36 (22W, 14L)
Biggest win = $3105
Biggest loss = $3000 (worst session ever)

This is mostly at 200-500 $2/$5 NL with some smaller hours mixed in. I play extreme tag preflop but I am pretty sticky post flop. I'll mix in some situational lag, especially at passive tables. Short sample size and mostly unsustainable, but still a solid start to 2017.
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