Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-22-2017, 03:07 PM   #18251
KatoKrazy
Pooh-Bah
 
KatoKrazy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Orange County, CA
Posts: 4,226
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Someone did the math above and it's something like 1 in 40 400 hour stretches would be breakeven for a crusher, I wouldn't call that uncommon at all.
KatoKrazy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 03:09 PM   #18252
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So if you're not "a crusher" you're "not very good" now? There's no "decent to good player that had a bad year" anymore?
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 03:17 PM   #18253
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
So if you're not "a crusher" you're "not very good" now? There's no "decent to good player that had a bad year" anymore?
Everything's black and white now, haven't you heard?

Geitherthegreatestortheworst,juryisstilldecidingG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 03:51 PM   #18254
Dochrohan
Pooh-Bah
 
Dochrohan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Somewhere else
Posts: 4,194
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I just mean it towards 1/2-2/5 in most instances, the word "very good" in those games to me is 10bb+.

If you're under that win-rate variance is going to be much larger and you'll see those 400 hour break even stretches a lot more than if you were winning at a higher clip. Especially if the STD is not large. Your STD average is what you're looking for, because you're going to play in games where the STD is really low and others where it's really high, so I'd try to aim for the middle ground and work with that.

You could chew out of non 400hr BE stretches and have a low win-rate with really low STD. Or you could chew out really high hourly with high STD and hit a ton of 400 HR BE stretches.

I'd like to believe a lot of people getting 400hr BE stretches @ 1/2-2/5 are probably just not beating the game for the maximum and/or have a really high STD.

Words like "good" and "very good" are subjective to the person.
Dochrohan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 04:15 PM   #18255
iraisetoomuch
banned
 
iraisetoomuch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 34,453
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Looking at standard deviation of an individual game or session is completely meaningless..
iraisetoomuch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 05:03 PM   #18256
Tiltyjoker
Pooh-Bah
 
Tiltyjoker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Triple double; no assists
Posts: 4,608
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

"Some people, pros even won't play no limit. They can't handle the swings." February has been a roller coaster...

[IMG][/IMG]
Tiltyjoker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 05:09 PM   #18257
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Either I'm reading things wrong or you like average multiple sessions a day?

Ghasplayed3sessionsinFeb,up9bbs,whoop!G
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 05:10 PM   #18258
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dochrohan View Post
Diggin the graph.

@G, if he tells you that, you can easily calculate the total earnings.

If I had to guess, that's roughly just over 1000bb.
Any experienced poker player, especially one who has read some of my posts in the last year where Ive talked about my win rate quite a bit, can probably decipher my Y-axis. I covered it for other personal reasons.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 05:11 PM   #18259
Tiltyjoker
Pooh-Bah
 
Tiltyjoker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Triple double; no assists
Posts: 4,608
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Either I'm reading things wrong or you like average multiple sessions a day?

Ghasplayed3sessionsinFeb,up9bbs,whoop!G
Yeah, i take breaks... eat/nap/shower/change casinos etc.
Tiltyjoker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 05:16 PM   #18260
Avaritia
Confirmed 2500 hour haver
 
Avaritia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Florida
Posts: 12,215
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Breaking into multiple sessions may have its merit's. I recently discovered I have not made a single penny above 5 hours of play. That's about 1k hours of my 2k hour sample. In other words, 100% of my profit came from <5 hour sessionso which made up half of my total volume.

I'm not sure about everyone else but I get sick if I sit for prolonged periods of time. Happens when I have 10-12 hour days at work too. I feel hungover and my chest hurts the whole next day.

Mike, we all know it's 3.50
Avaritia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 05:23 PM   #18261
Tiltyjoker
Pooh-Bah
 
Tiltyjoker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Triple double; no assists
Posts: 4,608
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^ Yeah I become a vegetable when I play long sessions. I'm pretty much just on auto pilot wasting time. Def should if there's a bunch of soft spots at the table tho.

My casino takes time rake too, so usually if i'm going to take a 30min - 1hr break i just pick up
Tiltyjoker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 06:03 PM   #18262
johnny_on_the_spot
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnny_on_the_spot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: S-Mart
Posts: 10,914
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Breaking into multiple sessions may have its merit's. I recently discovered I have not made a single penny above 5 hours of play. That's about 1k hours of my 2k hour sample. In other words, 100% of my profit came from <5 hour sessionso which made up half of my total volume.

I'm not sure about everyone else but I get sick if I sit for prolonged periods of time. Happens when I have 10-12 hour days at work too. I feel hungover and my chest hurts the whole next day.

Mike, we all know it's 3.50


I'm kinda surprised more people don't track their games down to smaller segments than "session", which is routinely a subjective amount of time. I'm only a rec player, so I've never really felt worried about this, but if I was playing for a living I would probably track every hour and keep notes to try to figure out my sweet spot for hours to play per session. Obv it's never going to be exact, but if I were to see that after 7 hours (or whatever) I rarely play well in spots I feel I should be, than I would adjust accordingly.
johnny_on_the_spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 06:23 PM   #18263
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Breaking into multiple sessions may have its merit's. I recently discovered I have not made a single penny above 5 hours of play. That's about 1k hours of my 2k hour sample. In other words, 100% of my profit came from <5 hour sessionso which made up half of my total volume.

I'm not sure about everyone else but I get sick if I sit for prolonged periods of time. Happens when I have 10-12 hour days at work too. I feel hungover and my chest hurts the whole next day.
That's an interesting observation. I don't have the time to put in many long sessions any more and am limited to about 3 hours on average. But I have no problems sitting at a table for 10-12 hours in a day. I get up to eat or take a leak, and I'll stand up and stretch occasionally too. No major problems staying focused or healthy while doing it.

Although I will say that it seems like less tends to happen at the end of a longer session. I have some theories about how table conditions evolve over time, but in general I think play tightens up and the money gets sucked off by the rake. Changing tables (preferably to a new table) can help improve that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
I'm kinda surprised more people don't track their games down to smaller segments than "session", which is routinely a subjective amount of time. I'm only a rec player, so I've never really felt worried about this, but if I was playing for a living I would probably track every hour and keep notes to try to figure out my sweet spot for hours to play per session. Obv it's never going to be exact, but if I were to see that after 7 hours (or whatever) I rarely play well in spots I feel I should be, than I would adjust accordingly.
I think that tracking hour by hour would cause more problems than it would solve for most players. It's too easy to get focused on really short term results that way. That being said ... if I had a good easy way to track that at the table, and a quick way to make notes on interesting or big hands I'd probably do it. (I may or may not have a problem with liking large datasets.)
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 07:06 PM   #18264
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Breaking into multiple sessions may have its merit's. I recently discovered I have not made a single penny above 5 hours of play. That's about 1k hours of my 2k hour sample. In other words, 100% of my profit came from <5 hour sessionso which made up half of my total volume.
I can't quite figure out what you mean. Do you mean:

(a) If you tallied all your sessions that were >= 5 hours, they would add up to $0?

or

(b) All the time you spent at a table >= 5 hours into a session, you broke even? How do you even track that?


Here's a quick PokerJournal breakdown of my 407 1/3 NL session lengths (hrs) / winrate / # of sessions, but I'm not sure if we're talking about the same thing:

1-, $78.55 (2)
1-2, $70.70 (6)
3-4, $30.88 (2)
4-5, $59.69 (4)
5-6, $22.57 (52)
6-7, $24.38 (132)
7-8, $8.51 (14)
8-9, $15.02 (19)
9-10, $16.34 (69)
10-11, $20.04 (64)
11-12, $34.77 (29)
12+, $32.78 (14)

I almost always simply stay in a game to a predetermined time.

In the end, much like my day-of-week stats, I'm pretty convinced these are interesting and yet in the end completely meaningless stats that are simply affected greatly by short term variance / lol sample size. In the end, it is no coincidence that the greatest sample size (6-7 hours @ 132 sessions) is also pretty much the closest to my overall winrate (with 5-6 actually being only off by $0.02/hr).

Not convinced these mean anything.

GcluelesssessionlengthnoobG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 07:07 PM   #18265
homerdash
banned
 
homerdash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: desert
Posts: 6,062
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

if I filter by "sessions longer than 3 hours", as I suspected after posting last time, but forgot to do until now, it's 33% of my sessions but 2.5x the overall winrate. So apparently I should play longer.

homerdash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 07:13 PM   #18266
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by homerdash View Post
So apparently I should play longer.
Ha, looks like I would be better off putting in either a 1 hour session or a 12 hour session.

Git'shours2thru11thatkillmeG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 07:17 PM   #18267
Tiltyjoker
Pooh-Bah
 
Tiltyjoker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Triple double; no assists
Posts: 4,608
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The session length can be misleading too. Sometimes if you win piles of chips within your first 3 hours you might pack it up and call it a day. Sometimes you lose 3 buyins in your first hour and next thing you know your tallying your 12th hour trying to salvage the session.
Tiltyjoker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 07:17 PM   #18268
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If Ava's statement mean he's actually breaking even in hours 5+ when sitting at the table (which is my guess as to what he is getting at, although I'd be interested in how he's tracking that, sample size, etc.), that result has interesting implications. Mainly cuz you'd think by the 5+ hour mark you'd be moving into deeper stack play, which perhaps indicates your deepstack play isn't as profitable as you'd think? Course that's assuming capped BIs, etc. which might not be the case.

GmakingassumptionsG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 07:18 PM   #18269
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiltyjoker View Post
The session length can be misleading too. Sometimes if you win piles of chips within your first 3 hours you might pack it up and call it a day. Sometimes you lose 3 buyins in your first hour and next thing you know your tallying your 12th hour trying to salvage the session.
As I say, for my results that isn't the case. I believe I've tapped out early twice in 407 sessions, and only chased at a good table longer than my allotted time like maybe a half dozen times.

GcluelesstimelimitnoobG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 07:43 PM   #18270
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Mainly cuz you'd think by the 5+ hour mark you'd be moving into deeper stack play, which perhaps indicates your deepstack play isn't as profitable as you'd think?
You're probably not getting all that deep. Players are going to come and go, win and lose (hopefully mostly lose) and I don't expect the average stack depth to move too much over the course of a session in a casino. So even if *we* run up a stack we're still not deep against (most of) our opponents.
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 08:04 PM   #18271
DK Barrel
Concept of the Week author
 
DK Barrel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: no gamble, no future
Posts: 6,798
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Well this was interesting. Mostly 2/5 100bb cap:



There's an obvious bias -- I am much more likely to leave early if I am up big, and much more likely to stay longer if I am even or stuck. It's not that I'm a stone crusher in my first two hours and an absolute turd after 7.
DK Barrel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 08:22 PM   #18272
Avaritia
Confirmed 2500 hour haver
 
Avaritia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Florida
Posts: 12,215
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

GG, it was a)

Yes, I realize there is a confirmation bias and that correlation does not imply causation.

The big caveat to my curious little discovery is what Tiltyjoker mentioned. That your longer sessions are often dedicated to recovery of what were likely early losses.

What this means is that even if I stopped at 5 hours, the 5 hour mark would become the new "biggest loser" mark. Following the curve that DK Barrel illustrated above (which is similar to mine and exactly what I was talking about)

The only way to begin to remove the bias would be to have predetermined set times that you adhere to. Example would be 3 hours, 6 hours, 9 hours, you alternate between the 3 each session (but you pick beforehand) If there was still the diminishing return curve over 50k hands it would be interesting.

So yes I realize that the bias exists, but I still intend to play shorter sessions now as a rule. The correlation is that strong.

To answer your question about sample, it was almost dead even. I've played 2k hours and half of them are from >5 hour sessions. My entire profit has come from <5 hour sessions. >5 hours added up to - $800. Over 1000 hours.
Avaritia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 09:11 PM   #18273
Garick
Oberbiergenießer
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,601
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

BS777, perhaps you want the General Gambling> Other Gambling Games forum.
Garick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 09:24 PM   #18274
Garick
Oberbiergenießer
 
Garick's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,601
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Generally, the higher the stakes, the less bb/hr are possible, as you are playing much better Vs.
Garick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-22-2017, 09:33 PM   #18275
KatoKrazy
Pooh-Bah
 
KatoKrazy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Orange County, CA
Posts: 4,226
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigSlick777 View Post
would blackjack require a bigger bankroll
Than roulette betting same
Amounts due to split and double down?
Roulette requires an infinite bankroll.
KatoKrazy is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:35 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive