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Old 02-22-2017, 03:52 AM   #18226
Keaton
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Re: 1/2 really soft game

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Originally Posted by ribas2 View Post
So considering my travel costs and parking costs....is it worth ?
What travel costs do you have outside of what essentially amounts to around $1/hour parking fee? If you have a car, it's about a 15/20 minute drive, right? Doesn't seem to be a major issue there. Plus I assume you enjoy playing...?

If the game is soft and beatable, seems pretty reasonable to me. My costs to get to most poker games are higher than $6 and it's a total non-issue in my book.
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Old 02-22-2017, 03:54 AM   #18227
jagger04
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Re: 1/2 really soft game

This is really a bankroll question. But of course it's worth it (if you do have an edge over the table). Parking and gas should be 10 BB tops = 1-2 hours of play.
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Old 02-22-2017, 04:41 AM   #18228
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Re: 1/2 really soft game

If you enjoy playing and just play for fun then it really shouldn't matter as it's just entertainment. Even from a pure financial aspect, I don't think there's much overhead for you to get yourself into the game. A 50km round trip probably costs you 1-1.5 gal. of gas (or we'll call it 4-6 liters since I'm guessing you're in Europe). I'm not sure how expensive gas is across the pond, but that can't be more than 10-15 euros right? Tack on a few bucks for parking and I'd assume you're looking at 15-20 euros total. I've spent more than that to get a seat in a bad game, let alone a soft game .
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Old 02-22-2017, 04:43 AM   #18229
ribas2
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Re: 1/2 really soft game

Yep it's 15-20 minute drive plus 4-6$(euros) to park car , well all the 4 sessions I had there was always atleast 2-4 spots at the table. And fridays / weekends lot of ppl that go gamble at roulette and casino games etc play as well so....well see.

I currently saved 2k so 10 Buy ins just for poker. I am going to add more (+200) this month.

As I said I am not trying to make a living out of it , just some extra money ( 1k +- per month would be nice , anything more is an extra) and I enjoy playing live , so worth to try I guess
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Old 02-22-2017, 04:57 AM   #18230
branch0095
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Re: 1/2 really soft game

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Originally Posted by ribas2 View Post
Yep it's 15-20 minute drive plus 4-6$(euros) to park car , well all the 4 sessions I had there was always atleast 2-4 spots at the table. And fridays / weekends lot of ppl that go gamble at roulette and casino games etc play as well so....well see.

I currently saved 2k so 10 Buy ins just for poker. I am going to add more (+200) this month.

As I said I am not trying to make a living out of it , just some extra money ( 1k +- per month would be nice , anything more is an extra) and I enjoy playing live , so worth to try I guess
Well GL, hope it works out for you. I'm glad to hear that you don't have aspirations of being a low stakes pro grinder and you view the game as a part time hobby to make some extra money. Sure there are plenty of people that grind low stakes for a living , but I've always thought that a large portion of them would be much better off both in the short term and long term to find themselves stable jobs that offer healthcare and pensions, and use poker as a part time job for secondary income.

Of course many people desire to play poker professionally to avoid the 9 to 5 and live life on their own terms, but at the low stakes it can be an unhealthy and degenerate way to make a "decent" income without benefits.
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Old 02-22-2017, 05:29 AM   #18231
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It's live $1/$2, you don't have to run that good for it go up like that. Whether he's a consistent 10bb/hr winner, I have no idea.
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Old 02-22-2017, 05:32 AM   #18232
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

@Johnny what do you mean 2k hours? How long were you break-even? If you say anything over 400 hours, you're probably not very good.
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Old 02-22-2017, 07:44 AM   #18233
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

400 hour breakeven is not at all unreasonable. I recently had one just shy of 400 hours. I admit I probably played badly at times. Maybe you wouldn't consider me a good player, either. It's hard to play your A-game when you've made no money in 300 hours and sit down to drop a buy-in immediately.

This formula represents how long it could take before you can have a certain confidence of having profit.

n0 = (z*SD/WR)^2

If your SD:WR ratio is 10, which seems pretty standard, that means 400 hours of breakeven is a -2 SD event, which is about 1/40, but that's for any given 400 hour stretch. Cherry pick your worst 400 hour stretch over your entire sample and it becomes significantly more likely, but I don't know how to figure that out off of the top of my head.

About 1/1000 10BB/h crushers with a SD of 100BB/h will not make money in a given 1000 hour stretch.
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Old 02-22-2017, 08:04 AM   #18234
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I just don't see anyone good winning 10bb/hr+ going on 400 BE stretches. You know why? It's rare and takes huge STD to accumulate if your true win-rate is 10bb or higher.

It's got to be something very small like <1% chance (something like 99.8%-99.9%) If you have massive STD. I can see this becoming a lot more common.

For example, something like 200bb/100 you are probably like 5% chance at having 400hr B/E stretches. Which is a lot if you put in serious volume, but still very unlikely. Add 1000 hours and you're probably talking like 99.5% chance of positive win-rate.

Something like 300bb/100 would give you a massive 13.5%+ chance and at 1000 hours you would be looking at roughly 4%. Which is very large.

If you're winning something like 15bb/hr just stone cold crushing with massive STD you're chance of breaking even @ 300bb/100 STD is <1%. Put this down to 150bb/100 and you have 0%.

Now if we have some tougher/deep games and 500bb/100 win a 10bb/hr win-rate you're talking 15% chance of breaking even @ 1000 hours. @400 you'd be roughly 25%.


Put your win-rate down to 5bb/hr and you'd be talking 37% of the time @500/100 over 400 hours.

Last edited by Dochrohan; 02-22-2017 at 08:18 AM.
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Old 02-22-2017, 10:12 AM   #18235
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think you are clearly a good player browni and enjoy your contributions to the forum.

I'm not sure how long my breakeven stretch was/is at 2/5 but I know it's north of 200 hours. My first 1500 hours of live poker I didnt know what losing was, so its easy to lose sight of things when that happens.

Closer to something somewhat usable, my last 2k hands at 10NL I won 10 buy ins first 1k then lost 10 buy ins second 1k. 10NL is the closest game to live 2/5. And 2k hands is about 65 hours of live poker.

I told my gf that the first 1k hands was the sickest heater I've ever experienced (lol). Not to be blinded/jaded by stakes, just objectively viewing my results, it was crazy. I was getting dealt AA on 3 tables at once, flopping every set, backdooring every draw. It was pretty neat.

Then the following 1k hands the reverse took place.

Also excel graphs ftw
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Old 02-22-2017, 11:50 AM   #18236
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Variance in poker is a *****, just have a big br and focus on improving. Results will come.
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Old 02-22-2017, 12:07 PM   #18237
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

2016-2017

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Old 02-22-2017, 12:22 PM   #18238
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
2016-2017



that's pretty balling no matter what the y-axis is
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Old 02-22-2017, 12:53 PM   #18239
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
2016-2017

Certainly impressive in its consistency.

What was the "big" downswing @ 1300 hrs in bbs?

GcluelessdownswingnoobG
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Old 02-22-2017, 01:01 PM   #18240
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Diggin the graph.

@G, if he tells you that, you can easily calculate the total earnings.

If I had to guess, that's roughly just over 1000bb.
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Old 02-22-2017, 01:03 PM   #18241
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Ha, yeah, true enough. I was just honestly interested in the downswing size though. Took me over 1800 hours to go on a downswing bigger than >= 500bbs.

Gflatliningin2017G
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Old 02-22-2017, 01:05 PM   #18242
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Ha, yeah, true enough. I was just honestly interested in the downswing size though. Took me over 1800 hours to go on a downswing bigger than >= 500bbs.

Gflatliningin2017G
You play a different game I am sure of that. From your posts, you play a very tighter low variance route that works, it's just tough to ever win a lot of money that way. You'll be consistent though.
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Old 02-22-2017, 01:10 PM   #18243
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You play a different game I am sure of that. From your posts, you play a very tighter low variance route that works, it's just tough to ever win a lot of money that way. You'll be consistent though.
Results haven't been nearly as easy peasy consistent in my last 1300 hours. Session winning percentage has plummetted, which I'm convinced is a useless metric, but at the same time I can't seem to ignore it either.

GcluelessingeneralG
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Old 02-22-2017, 01:11 PM   #18244
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Time for a tweak of your game, you've become static. That's actually been a legitimate issue of mine in the past vs certain smaller player pools. Especially the ones where they improved and I was not working towards improving.
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Old 02-22-2017, 01:12 PM   #18245
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I've actually considered tightening up more.

GforrealzG
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Old 02-22-2017, 01:14 PM   #18246
Dochrohan
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I've actually considered tightening up more.

GforrealzG
If that's the issue. It could be, perhaps post some hands (reminds me to post a hand, I'll do it tonight)
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Old 02-22-2017, 01:54 PM   #18247
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I play in some small player pools (home and local games) where I see the same players over and over again. It's *very* easy to fall into the trap of being too predictable in that setting, especially if you're a tighter player. Your ability to get value from a made hand plummets unless there are two other players in the hand driving the action against each other, and the smarter V's will start moving you off hands more often than they'd do a random.

In a big pool against random players that don't really know you, it's easy to print money at a slow steady pace playing a tight game. They don't adjust and spew money off to you.

I've been trying to come up with a good adjustment for a small pool because I like a bunch of the guys I'm playing with and the games are a lot of *fun*. I think the best adjustment would be to open up and play *more* hands, somewhat as semi-bluffs looking to get more folds than calls to start. My BRs kind of short right now so I haven't had the stomach to really open it up yet though.
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Old 02-22-2017, 02:03 PM   #18248
gobbledygeek
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Originally Posted by Dochrohan View Post
That's actually been a legitimate issue of mine in the past vs certain smaller player pools. Especially the ones where they improved and I was not working towards improving.
Course, my overall take on this is much different than most everyone else's (which is basically in a raked game your opponents have to be much worse than you in order for you to outrun the rake at a great clip, and you're fooling yourself if you think there is much you can do if everyone catches up to a great degree other than sitting at a better table).

I'm actually quite pleased with last years results (lol sample size 540 hours), and I'm quite pleased with the quality of the tables I've sat at so far this year (although that hasn't translated into $$$ yet, but lol 75 hours).

I am trying to improve, and I think one of the best things might be to tighten up more in EP/MP by not attempting to get into as many pots with speculative hands (especially at more non-******ed tables, where getting paid off OOP is very difficult).

Gnotconvincedmygameneedsasmuchtweakingaseveryoneel sedoes,butIcouldbewrongG
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Old 02-22-2017, 02:28 PM   #18249
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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@Johnny what do you mean 2k hours? How long were you break-even? If you say anything over 400 hours, you're probably not very good.
This is not true. Just because it has never happened to you doesn't mean it doesn't happen to good players (and quite often).
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Old 02-22-2017, 02:49 PM   #18250
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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This is not true. Just because it has never happened to you doesn't mean it doesn't happen to good players (and quite often).
STD is the big key factor along with win-rate.

Depending on the stake WR can only be so high, if lower stake games, it's pretty hard to go on 400 hr BE stretches, if you're over 10bb/hr. The STD deviation over 3-4 hours has to be huge.


What's your or the average STD over a 100 hand sample? For most 100bb max buy-in games.
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