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Old 02-18-2017, 09:17 AM   #18176
RunninMan5K
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Tomark View Post
well i came in here for some advice on moving up but i guess my current winrate is probably related to the whole "cant beat 7 bb/hr" thing. Im currently sitting on $12k BR. Around 80-90% of my profit just goes back into my BR, i dont really need the money for anything (wife disagrees lol). Started really tryharding live and playing semi regularly (about 5 hours per week) beginning of 2016. Played mostly 1/2 or 1/3, 288 hours, $28.37/hr I also min cashed in 2/2 tourneys for $390 in profit lolz.

Accounting for just 1/2 and 1/3 im at $30.13/hr in 230 hours. At 2/5 im at $31.96/hr in 34 hours. remaining hours are $5.95/hr 23 hours at 4/8 and 8/16 limit. Its extremely likely the winrate is unsustainable, but i can at least be pretty confident i can beat the game at $15/hr.

So i had planned to move up to 2/5, and in fact I did play about 30 hours of 2/5 in vegas with success, but the local casino that opened is running $1/3 $500, which seems like it plays like a 2/5 game. The next level up is 2/5 $1k. Im sort of thinking with my BR and winrate, i should feel confident moving up (although ive been told 20 buyins which would be $20k BR)

The other thing that has deterred me from moving up is I have been demolishing the 1/3 game at the new casino. Only 52 hours, but im at $63.91/hr, and thats despite the game having an effective $7 rake (5+2 with no promos since it just opened). My one session at 2/5 the game seemed a good amount tougher, and im thinking maybe it makes sense, lots of players who havent ever really had a local casino and they are playing the lowest stakes of course, so maybe I should stay at 1/3 and vacuum up all the new player money until the 1/3 game isnt so soft.

Downside of that strategy is it delays my move up in stakes, and I feel like im at a point where im not learning much at 1/3.

So basically the question is...move up to 2/5/$1k?

Pros: theoretically higher achievable winrate. I semi have the BR for it. Learning(?). Long term maybe preps me for 5/10 if i do well at 2/5. Maybe the massive winrate at 1/3 new casino is either also available at 2/5, or just me reading too much into variance

Cons: At least in the 30 hours i played in vegas, i noticed i have a much worse feel for bet sizes that tend to get called vs folded, so id expect at least some loss of winrate from asjustments such as these in short term. Possibly missing out on epically free money at 1/3. Semi dont have the BR for it. Havent really played a whole lot at the $500 buyin level, so maybe moving to $1k after only about 90 hours at $500 buyin is a fast jump.
I see what you mean about not learning much at 1/3 (I am playing $1/$2 currently the past year with only a few shots at 2/5 and have hated it, but its been decent when I put in the volume and time) but you need to keep pummeling this game...even if you level off at $45 an hour, you do that for another 500 hours and instead of around $8000 in profit between the $2/$5 at ~$32 an hour and 1/2-1/3 mentioned at ~$30 an hour, you'll be up another $22,500 at 1/3 in just a few months...depending on what your starting roll was, taking shots at 2/5 and 5/T will be fine, you'll be more prepared once you move up and typically, in my humble opinion, we want to have around 6+ months of beating a game (I'd say $30-$35 an hour or better) at 160+ hours a month (round up to a thousand hours in six months), before permanently considering a move up to higher stakes, with applicable bankroll for those stakes. So, if your BR for 2/5 is 60K+, being only slightly conservative at 200BB buy-ins or 1K per buy-in, well, you are way more prepared for a full move up and also can always come down sometimes during the better moments at 1/3 to play it and not play the times when the very best regs are in the 2/5 games.
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Old 02-18-2017, 09:21 AM   #18177
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Originally Posted by RunninMan5K View Post
I see what you mean about not learning much at 1/3 (I am playing $1/$2 currently the past year with only a few shots at 2/5 and have hated it, but its been decent when I put in the volume and time) but you need to keep pummeling this game...even if you level off at $45 an hour, you do that for another 500 hours and instead of around $8000 in profit between the $2/$5 at ~$32 an hour and 1/2-1/3 mentioned at ~$30 an hour, you'll be up another $22,500 at 1/3 in just a few months...depending on what your starting roll was, taking shots at 2/5 and 5/T will be fine, you'll be more prepared once you move up and typically, in my humble opinion, we want to have around 6+ months of beating a game (I'd say $30-$35 an hour or better) at 160+ hours a month (round up to a thousand hours in six months), before permanently considering a move up to higher stakes, with applicable bankroll for those stakes. So, if your BR for 2/5 is 60K+, being only slightly conservative at 200BB buy-ins or 1K per buy-in, well, you are way more prepared for a full move up and also can always come down sometimes during the better moments at 1/3 to play it and not play the times when the very best regs are in the 2/5 games.
Dude 60k for live 2/5 ???? You realize practically nobody would be playing that stake full time if that were the case ?

This isn't online .. ..not tournaments either ...

Also moves aren't permanent . Go on a down swing mI've down to 1/3 for a cpl sessions.

It's not rocket science
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Old 02-18-2017, 09:29 AM   #18178
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No way you need anywhere remotely lose to $60K to play 2/5 if you have a job and arent using the roll to play poker AND support yourself. In your shoes, I would play 2/5 with $5K. If I lost 5 (100BB) buy ins I would move back down. You would still have $2500 which is 8 buy ins for 1/3. More than enough if you have a big edge in the game.

If you lose 5 buy ins at 2/5 and then immediately lose 8 more at 1/3, you have serious leaks or are on the run from hell.
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Old 02-18-2017, 09:39 AM   #18179
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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No way you need anywhere remotely lose to $60K to play 2/5 if you have a job and arent using the roll to play poker AND support yourself. In your shoes, I would play 2/5 with $5K. If I lost 5 (100BB) buy ins I would move back down. You would still have $2500 which is 8 buy ins for 1/3. More than enough if you have a big edge in the game.

If you lose 5 buy ins at 2/5 and then immediately lose 8 more at 1/3, you have serious leaks or are on the run from hell.
I agree with the part about the job...

I respectfully disagree about bankroll amounts...if you are playing 2/5 regularly and have 60+ buy-ins, chances are you are finding shots at 5/T or 10/20 and those buy-ins are bigger...you need this amount or more, for sustainability.

I am sure there are some people on here who would agree that a larger bankroll when playing full-time hours would be in the best interest. Sure, if you work full time and play $1-$2 about 35-40 hours a week during your own time on 20-30 buy-ins, that is cool...but you are not going to play effectively knowing in the back of your mind if you just lose two all-ins that you are only going to have three buy-ins left at $2/$5 when buying in for 1K and buying in for just $500 is ridiculous if the games are "good". Just being realistic.
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Old 02-18-2017, 09:42 AM   #18180
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
If you lose 5 buy ins at 2/5 and then immediately lose 8 more at 1/3, you have serious leaks or are on the run from hell.
I would agree there could be leaks here, but having a smaller bankroll during this period, if it truly were a bad run, would be bad...and runs from hell do happen, which is why having a bigger bankroll vs. stakes needed is never a bad thing.

I would say once you are beating $1/$2 or $1/$3 and want to move up, just follow Kelly criterion...2% or less investment per buy-in is not a bad measure at all. Anything else to me is simply shot taking.
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Old 02-18-2017, 09:56 AM   #18181
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Because you choose who you work for, and you chose your own path. Doesnt matter if you work for yourself or someone else...if you aren't innovating, you aren't thriving in my field.

I'm not saying everyone in my field isn't in the rat race. Most certainly are. But they lack the qualities to which I alluded earlier. Your mindset seems to be the same as theirs, which makes me question if you are truly capable of seeing poker for what it really is, and have honestly weighed the opportunity costs. Weighing opportunity as a 9-5 grind is extremely short sighted.
Totally disagree. It's a system wide issue. Who the is innovativing in accounts rec at a company? What about VP of XYZ? And I actually work in a super flat structure field working sometimes 80 hr weeks doing my own thing. And I can assure you it's all about money. Maximizing money. Not innovativing. Whether it's CEO s, CFOs, analyst etc. Everything relvovles around max money. Just like poker. I see borderline unethical, illegal things done every week to get it. Do pp truly innovate to make our lives better as a society? absolutely. But it's few and far between my friend.

I've always believed you can have more of an impact on life on how you allocate your money vs the means in how you accumulate it.

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Old 02-18-2017, 11:01 AM   #18182
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Originally Posted by BigPavelski View Post
You lose this bet so bad it's not even close man .

A good number of people do it that I know personally in Vegas including myself .

I've made 10k in a week before playing 2/5. (1k to 1500 max)
I have a pal that had a +30k 2 weeks in the wynn 2/5 game a few years back

completely verifiable - it wuz obv the talk of the town
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Old 02-18-2017, 11:51 AM   #18183
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I have a pal that had a +30k 2 weeks in the wynn 2/5 game a few years back

completely verifiable - it wuz obv the talk of the town
I know a guy who won $24K in 1 session of a $1000 max buy in 2/5 Pineapple game 3 weeks ago. I'm almost certain hes a loser overall. I'm not saying your guy is a losing player, but Im not sure a big week or 2 means much overall.

These are once in a lifetime situations for the most part, but if a player can win $30K in a 2 week heater, its ridiculous to say no 2/5 player wins $100K in any 1 year period
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Old 02-18-2017, 12:00 PM   #18184
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I'd bet it's possible to win 200k in 2/5 if you're grinding it hard enough and crushing.
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Old 02-18-2017, 12:19 PM   #18185
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I know a guy who won $24K in 1 session of a $1000 max buy in 2/5 Pineapple game 3 weeks ago. I'm almost certain hes a loser overall. I'm not saying your guy is a losing player, but Im not sure a big week or 2 means much overall.

These are once in a lifetime situations for the most part, but if a player can win $30K in a 2 week heater, its ridiculous to say no 2/5 player wins $100K in any 1 year period
I've known the dude for years. Pre bf he was a 100nl GRINDER. He won the UGL (ultimate grinder leader board) 2 consecutive months - meaning he won the most money of any one at that particular stake across all major tracked sites. His w/r was truly obscene. He cranked out major volume and his graph was a 45 degree angle
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Old 02-18-2017, 12:33 PM   #18186
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Tomark View Post
well i came in here for some advice on moving up but i guess my current winrate is probably related to the whole "cant beat 7 bb/hr" thing. Im currently sitting on $12k BR. Around 80-90% of my profit just goes back into my BR, i dont really need the money for anything (wife disagrees lol). Started really tryharding live and playing semi regularly (about 5 hours per week) beginning of 2016. Played mostly 1/2 or 1/3, 288 hours, $28.37/hr I also min cashed in 2/2 tourneys for $390 in profit lolz.

Accounting for just 1/2 and 1/3 im at $30.13/hr in 230 hours. At 2/5 im at $31.96/hr in 34 hours. remaining hours are $5.95/hr 23 hours at 4/8 and 8/16 limit. Its extremely likely the winrate is unsustainable, but i can at least be pretty confident i can beat the game at $15/hr.

So i had planned to move up to 2/5, and in fact I did play about 30 hours of 2/5 in vegas with success, but the local casino that opened is running $1/3 $500, which seems like it plays like a 2/5 game. The next level up is 2/5 $1k. Im sort of thinking with my BR and winrate, i should feel confident moving up (although ive been told 20 buyins which would be $20k BR)

The other thing that has deterred me from moving up is I have been demolishing the 1/3 game at the new casino. Only 52 hours, but im at $63.91/hr, and thats despite the game having an effective $7 rake (5+2 with no promos since it just opened). My one session at 2/5 the game seemed a good amount tougher, and im thinking maybe it makes sense, lots of players who havent ever really had a local casino and they are playing the lowest stakes of course, so maybe I should stay at 1/3 and vacuum up all the new player money until the 1/3 game isnt so soft.

Downside of that strategy is it delays my move up in stakes, and I feel like im at a point where im not learning much at 1/3.

So basically the question is...move up to 2/5/$1k?

Pros: theoretically higher achievable winrate. I semi have the BR for it. Learning(?). Long term maybe preps me for 5/10 if i do well at 2/5. Maybe the massive winrate at 1/3 new casino is either also available at 2/5, or just me reading too much into variance

Cons: At least in the 30 hours i played in vegas, i noticed i have a much worse feel for bet sizes that tend to get called vs folded, so id expect at least some loss of winrate from asjustments such as these in short term. Possibly missing out on epically free money at 1/3. Semi dont have the BR for it. Havent really played a whole lot at the $500 buyin level, so maybe moving to $1k after only about 90 hours at $500 buyin is a fast jump.

Sounds like you have a full time job and you aren't doing this for a living. Bankroll management is much less important in your case. If I were in your shoes, I'd move up to 2/5/1k as long as I feel comfortable in the game, and move back down if my bankroll drops to 6k or less. (which is still plenty to play 1/3 recreationally with)
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Old 02-18-2017, 03:18 PM   #18187
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recent chatter prompted a review of results since leaving/losing job last May:





to compare, here's the sample directly before, from Oct '15 to May '16:



point is i wouldn't count on poker for ANYTHING.
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Old 02-18-2017, 03:25 PM   #18188
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These last few pages are getting quite delusional.
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Old 02-18-2017, 03:25 PM   #18189
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So you're probably not a 10bb winner is what I'm seeing.

What is that 5-6bb winner over 1200 hours?

I wonder what the effect of not having a job and relying on poker did to your poker game? Do you believe it has no cost on your win-rate or is that what you believe caused a longer stretch of break even?
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Old 02-18-2017, 03:42 PM   #18190
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Originally Posted by homerdash View Post
recent chatter prompted a review of results since leaving/losing job last May:





to compare, here's the sample directly before, from Oct '15 to May '16:



point is i wouldn't count on poker for ANYTHING.
Life tilt? Nice recovery tho!
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Old 02-18-2017, 04:20 PM   #18191
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So you're probably not a 10bb winner is what I'm seeing.

What is that 5-6bb winner over 1200 hours?

I wonder what the effect of not having a job and relying on poker did to your poker game? Do you believe it has no cost on your win-rate or is that what you believe caused a longer stretch of break even?

5.5bb winner at this point yes

it's a very simple reason as to the cost on winrate: it absolutely caused the BE stretch

(i don't keep track of EV but i probably ran neutral to maybe slightly negative in that time)

here's the simple reason: when you have a 1.5-2 buyin stoploss, BUT also have a 1-2 buyin stop*win*, there you go.

Look at the avg session lengths: 4 hours in the good sample and 2 hours in the bad

basically felt compelled to leave whenever i was up ~100bb so all the session in the bad sample that were bigger wins than that, it's probably because i got AA pre and it held or had a monster post during the time i was plotting my escape.

edit: totally forgot about dumb stuff like opting to take the more passive line (maybe not a bad line, but that's not my game) or letting bad players off the hook because i notice something but don't have the financial confidence to really rumble

Last edited by homerdash; 02-18-2017 at 04:27 PM.
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Old 02-19-2017, 12:49 AM   #18192
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ok seems like the vote is to take 2/5 shots, as much as 6k of my BR. I think ill take 2-3k up there and see how it goes. Im thinking im gonna max buyin, because my loose style benefits from deepstacks.
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Old 02-19-2017, 01:26 AM   #18193
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5.5bb winner at this point yes

it's a very simple reason as to the cost on winrate: it absolutely caused the BE stretch

(i don't keep track of EV but i probably ran neutral to maybe slightly negative in that time)

here's the simple reason: when you have a 1.5-2 buyin stoploss, BUT also have a 1-2 buyin stop*win*, there you go.

Look at the avg session lengths: 4 hours in the good sample and 2 hours in the bad

basically felt compelled to leave whenever i was up ~100bb so all the session in the bad sample that were bigger wins than that, it's probably because i got AA pre and it held or had a monster post during the time i was plotting my escape.

edit: totally forgot about dumb stuff like opting to take the more passive line (maybe not a bad line, but that's not my game) or letting bad players off the hook because i notice something but don't have the financial confidence to really rumble
Wow, leave after 100BB win? Seems foolish.

I was down 350bb in first 20 mins of yesterday's session.

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Old 02-20-2017, 07:36 AM   #18194
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Hello community! I haven´t posted here in a long time!
Thanks to Home games and my daily Job i have now a Bankroll of 8k € and i have decided to make the big step in Casino Live games.
My question:

I can choose beetween 2 games to grind:

1) 2/2, minimum buy in 50 maximum buy in 400. Average stacks at the table is 80-90BB, a couple of short stacks with 40-70 BB and 1-2 150BB+, rest of the table is beetween the 2. Rake is 10% cap 10€ (Europe sucks). Player pool is bad/very bad with max 1 decent player at the table. Most nitty or loose passive.

2) 2/4, minimum Buy in 150 Maximum buy in 1000. Average stacks is 150BB, very Few players buy in for less than 80BB and there are always 1-2 Big stacks. Rake is 5% cap 20€ (again, Europe sucks). Average player is better, always 2-3 Weak tight/TAG in the game, a couple of nitty, maybe one LAG and 1-2, max 3 good Spots a the table. On weekday always the same 3-4 people sitting there, but on weekend is much better than this.

What do you think i should grind in?

Thank you, and sorry for the Bad english.

23s
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Old 02-20-2017, 08:15 AM   #18195
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I don't know your skill level, but, if you they have to ask it is usually not that good. So start with the 2/2 and move up if you are winning and you are not just running over EV
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Old 02-20-2017, 09:18 AM   #18196
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I don't know your skill level, but, if you they have to ask it is usually not that good. So start with the 2/2 and move up if you are winning and you are not just running over EV


I Had a 8bb/Hour winrate Over 500 Hours on homegames (0.50/0.50 and 1/1). I Know its Not that big sample and Games plays Lot deeper than casino Games. Players were a lot worse too, a lot of restraddle and stuff Like that. Rake were similar, 10% 5bb cap on These Games.


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Old 02-20-2017, 10:27 AM   #18197
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Yeah I'd just start lower and if I felt comfortable enough through observation of the higher staked games in the room, I'd try to quickly shot take, whether that was $1k shots or $500 shots.

I'd be much more inclined to move back down if I was taking $1k shot compared to $500.
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Old 02-20-2017, 10:37 AM   #18198
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Yeah I'd just start lower and if I felt comfortable enough through observation of the higher staked games in the room, I'd try to quickly shot take, whether that was $1k shots or $500 shots.

I'd be much more inclined to move back down if I was taking $1k shot compared to $500.


If i Play 2/4, i think i Would buy in for 100bb and Not for 250bb. at 2/2 i have Always played with max buy in (400 too) because im confident every Time i Seat there i am the best player at the table. But at 2/4 im not sure, and i think i play on later streets a little Money scared if it comes to a big pot.




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Old 02-20-2017, 10:45 AM   #18199
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I would play the 2/2 game for the sole reason that seeing $20 raked from a single pot would put me on life tilt.

From the way you asked the question, I'd guess your skill level to likely already be in the top 5% of posters on this forum. But just build up further where you are comfortable.
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Old 02-20-2017, 10:57 AM   #18200
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I would play the 2/2 game for the sole reason that seeing $20 raked from a single pot would put me on life tilt.

From the way you asked the question, I'd guess your skill level to likely already be in the top 5% of posters on this forum. But just build up further where you are comfortable.


Yeah i think i will Grind 100-200 Hours at 2/2, take a Look at my winrate and Start from there. If i Hit 10k roll in this Time i Start to Grind 2/4 too if table is Good




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