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Old 02-15-2017, 01:20 PM   #18101
Tiltyjoker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by nicname View Post
When did we go from the consensus that good players can average about 10bb/hr for 1/2, 1/3 to people claiming it's unlikely even the best can average 7bb/hr?

Two things are happening: Players are vastly overrating their own skills w/ regard to LLSNL. Players are underselling just how bad a majority of the LLSNL player pool really is.

And again, comparing LLSNL to online poker is like comparing apples to oranges. There is no real point to it.
I think some of those who are saying it's not sustainable play in really small player pools. I always thought ppl were using bb as big blind x 2 bc the #s seemed kinda low otherwise. I'm shocked that people are claiming 7bb @ 1/2 $14/hr is not sustainable. I'm pretty sure that the 1/2 in Atlantic City or philly could be beat for somewhere in the $30s/hr by a top player
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Old 02-15-2017, 01:21 PM   #18102
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post

The things that make win rates apples/oranges from online/live aren't the poor play though. It's that the effective stack sizes and raise sizes make them two totally different games. At 10NL, it is very rare to see an open > $0.35. At 2/5, $25 opens are standard and many $30. Stuff like this is what makes the games hard to compare, you are effectively short stacking a higher stakes game when you are playing in a good 2/5.
Comparing say $1-2 NL online vs. $1-2 NL live is largely the difference in skill. Also, your describing a component of the difference pointing to worse play and not a separate issue. There is also very different post flop bet sizing live vs. online, but again this is just describing the details of the bad play vs. a separate distinction.
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Old 02-15-2017, 01:32 PM   #18103
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The point that I was making is that while people view the skill difference in absolute terms (more bad people live, can't be compared) it's the spr difference that separates the games from comparison.

I won't address 1/2 live vs $200NL bc that is obviously ridiculous.

But if we were to find the best comparable to 2/5 live, it would have to be $10NL (I'm stateside, so this is ignition)

Even though 10NL is filled with very poor players, and comparable to 2/5 live in terms of difficulty, the game dynamics are very different. Everyone 3x's and many buy in full. Whereas live everyone 5-6xs and many buy in 60bb. Sure this can be lumped in "player skill" grouping but what I was getting at is the stakes are different. You are often effectively short stacking 5/10 when you play 2/5 live. Then measuring your bb/hr using $5. Which shows a higher wr in terms of bb.

Alot of these people claiming they make 10bb/hr are closer to 5bb/hr when viewed from this perspective. Which is still fine and alot of money, just saying, a 40bb/hr wr in live 1/2 PLO is rather misleading, even if over 2 million hands.

Last edited by Avaritia; 02-15-2017 at 01:42 PM. Reason: Removed some snobbiness
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Old 02-15-2017, 01:34 PM   #18104
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Simply to play devils advocate, I belive SRT was using his experience with win rates from an online background as a guideline for what can be achieved. Meaning, even in the glory days of online poker, 30bb/100 would be rather exceptional.
That's exactly where I'm coming from - numbers in excess of 30bb/hr set off giant red flags in my head.

Quote:
The things that make win rates apples/oranges from online/live aren't the poor play though. It's that the effective stack sizes and raise sizes make them two totally different games. At 10NL, it is very rare to see an open > $0.35. At 2/5, $25 opens are standard and many $30. Stuff like this is what makes the games hard to compare, you are effectively short stacking a higher stakes game when you are playing in a good 2/5.
I think this is a super fair point. The stakes may not be comparable because live plays much "bigger" than online. It's completely standard live to see 6 limpers, raise to 12-15bb, and have 4+ people come along. (The $/pot and average stack size are much higher live). The rule-of-thumb used to be to estimate the skill required to sit a live table by multiplying online stakes by 10 (.50c/$1 online -> $5/$10 live), maybe a good addendum is to multiply the effective stakes you think you're playing by 2 when figuring out winrates :P

There's a counter-point to this which is that as the stakes play higher and SPRs decrease, the skill factor also decreases, but the money going into the pot is so dead it's not clear to me how much that would even matter :/

Anyway, I'm willing to extract my head from my ass on the baseline numbers.
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Old 02-15-2017, 01:39 PM   #18105
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Originally Posted by Tiltyjoker View Post
I think some of those who are saying it's not sustainable play in really small player pools. I always thought ppl were using bb as big blind x 2 bc the #s seemed kinda low otherwise. I'm shocked that people are claiming 7bb @ 1/2 $14/hr is not sustainable. I'm pretty sure that the 1/2 in Atlantic City or philly could be beat for somewhere in the $30s/hr by a top player
I don't see anyone saying that 7bn/hr is unsustainable, except for SameRiverTwice. He was talking based on his experience from online play, which we've pretty soundly indicated has different variables/conditions than a live game.

The consensus is that anything >10bb/hr long term is impressive, as in only a small number of player achieve it. Not that it's not sustainable for a good player.

I'd point out that there are a lot of smaller player pools out there, and that such a game condition is probably more applicable to most posters ITT. I agree that in a larger pool you'll have an easier time getting a higher winrate though.

Some citations that hopefully show that we're pretty much all in agreement here ...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Simply to play devils advocate, I belive SRT was using his experience with win rates from an online background as a guideline for what can be achieved. Meaning, even in the glory days of online poker, 30bb/100 would be rather exceptional.
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
An experienced online player with very little live playing time said that its unlikely even the best can avg 7BB/hr. He was clearly speaking about something hes unfamiliar with.
>7bb is sustainable.

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Originally Posted by Tiltyjoker View Post
Obv rake is a big factor. Saw some talk about $10-$15 max rake at 1/2 which is nuts. My main casino has 10% $5 max (might be $4) +$1 for bad beat. I'd argue that closer to 20bb/hr is sustainable in that game. Don't think that 7bb/hr being sustainable at 1/2 can even be debated.
If you're claiming that $40/hr at $1/2 is sustainable ... you're going to have a hard time convincing people of that. Especially over a 500-1000+ hr sample. If you're still thinking 2xbb for $80/hr, I have a bridge to sell you (doubt that).


Quote:
Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
$14/hr is absolutely achievable in probably any live 1/2 game
>7bb is sustainable.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
All of that said, 10bb/hr is very large, and I'd guess over 100K hands, very rare. I'm saying that with an understanding of the inputs in the formula.
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
I would consider 10bb/hr at 1/2 fairly impressive.
Agreed.

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Originally Posted by SameRiverTwice View Post
I love you all, but I would be deeply skeptical of anyone claiming to have an expected hourly rate of more than 7bb/hr in a full-ring live NLHE game.

Remember, the distribution of players who run hot and attain 10bb/hr over a 10k hand sample is *vastly* larger than the number of players who run bad and attain 10bb/hr over a 10k hand sample. 10bb/hr which is like 25-30bb/100, is at the bleeding tail of attainable winrates over reasonable samples in full-ring NLHE (after rake). <snip>
Original post kicking off the real debate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dochrohan View Post
10bb/hr is pretty rare. The reason being, people move up and the games are tougher and to maintain that 10bb/hr+ you'll need to improve much further than you were at the lower stake. Continue this as you go up, and it's just unlikely to be sustainable.
<snip>
To do it @ 1/2NL is not very impressive, but that player is no slouch and should be moving up asap.
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10bb/hr <%1.
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Old 02-15-2017, 01:41 PM   #18106
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^ whats a standard 1/2 open? Like 6-8x right?
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Old 02-15-2017, 01:44 PM   #18107
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Originally Posted by Tiltyjoker View Post
^ whats a standard 1/2 open? Like 6-8x right?
Table dependent, but probably $10 without limpers.

I get a kick out of the online v. live questions. I'm embarrassed to admit it, but I can barely beat play money (though a lot of those losses have come learning games like O8 and Stud), yet am killing live games. I just think they're such different games
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Old 02-15-2017, 01:45 PM   #18108
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Originally Posted by SameRiverTwice View Post
That's exactly where I'm coming from - numbers in excess of 30bb/hr set off giant red flags in my head.
<snip>
(The $/pot and average stack size are much higher live). <snip>
Anyway, I'm willing to extract my head from my ass on the baseline numbers.
Which is all fair, and you're being very reasonable about the change in analysis when comparing games. (Holy hell, what internet is this where there's reasonable debate?)

I'd point out that winrates for live games vary a lot with stack depth. There are $1/2 games I play in with $800 *average* stacks, or $125 averages. With vastly different winrates possible in each (although they both tend to have the same $10 opens). So a better metric than $/bb would be $/average-stack ... it's just impossible to really track that. I don't think you see that kind of variation in table conditions online.
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Old 02-15-2017, 01:46 PM   #18109
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Originally Posted by Tiltyjoker View Post
^ whats a standard 1/2 open? Like 6-8x right?
$10 to $15 usually. Depending on the number of limpers and the average BAC at the table. You'll see a lot of $5 or $7 bets made under the assumption that everyone is calling them too.
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Old 02-15-2017, 02:45 PM   #18110
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@Avaritia

Aah. I misunderstood you before. Good point, agreed.
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Old 02-17-2017, 02:27 AM   #18111
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Building a live poker bankroll

I really want to take a big shot at playing live poker. My main problem is lack of a bankroll, I'm nearly done a year of travelling and when I get home I want to build a bankroll ($4,000) and take a shot at playing full time. Does anyone have tips for someone who is 23 years old to build up a bankroll? I have the luxury of living with my parents rent free as long as I'm pursuing something.

I was thinking some sort of job not at home for a few months to make tons of money to support my living expenses aswell as have a $4,000 br to play 1/2 (I wouldn't mind working a weekend job for living expenses with $4,000 to play with.

Here are a few skills I have, card dealer (croupier) can deal most table games and very high limit baccarat, cocktail bartender, currently with the Canadian armed forces aswell on a year off.

Someone suggest being a croupier on a cruise ship which actually sounds pretty good, are there any other jobs that anyone can think of to just grind out a bunch of money? Some jobs out of the ordinary where money is the only goal.

Or would people advocate a full time job near a casino and just take 2 buyin shots every other week?

Sorry if this is the wrong forum to put this!

I really want to build up a bankroll as I think my skill level would be sufficient to play 2/5 with a decent win rate (basing this off that one young youtuber that plays 2/5 for a living and his hands all seem quite poorly played, yet still turns a profit.)

E/ the YouTube I meant is Brad Owen
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Old 02-17-2017, 03:46 AM   #18112
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Re: Building a live poker bankroll

inb4lock
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Old 02-17-2017, 03:53 AM   #18113
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Re: Building a live poker bankroll

People usually do make their money with a job before gambling it, so yeah, I'd go with that.
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Old 02-17-2017, 06:02 AM   #18114
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Re: Building a live poker bankroll

You'd be better off putting your time into a career than live poker as a serious profession. Games are not getting any better and industry outside of poker is.

Turning a profit is one thing, and crushing a game is another.

Winning 4-5bb/hr aint crap and anyone who says so is not very good.

These youtubers are convincing avg shmos to take shots at something they should not be doing, but, instead be looking for a career to maximize earning and give you much more benefits in life.

You know how hard it is to play poker for a living? Think about healthy insurance/tax/break-even stretches as well as needing a strong understanding of how to manage your money and how to pay yourself. There are a lot of things these youtubers don't even know however, they claim they play for a living. If they were making so much money, they would not be vlogging, there is a reason they are doing it. They don't foresee themselves doing it forever.

I say it all the time to people getting into it now, you're years behind the curve. A lot do not want to hear that, but, it's pretty close to the truth.
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:14 AM   #18115
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Re: Building a live poker bankroll

Profiting at poker is the easy part.

There are tons of local pros I see who, frankly, astonish me that they can support themselves the way they play.

But who knows, maybe they're doing the bankroll/life management part right. Or maybe they're bad at that too and will soon be busto. Who knows.
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:30 AM   #18116
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You'd be better off putting your time into a career than live poker as a serious profession. Games are not getting any better and industry outside of poker is.

Turning a profit is one thing, and crushing a game is another.

Winning 4-5bb/hr aint crap and anyone who says so is not very good.

These youtubers are convincing avg shmos to take shots at something they should not be doing, but, instead be looking for a career to maximize earning and give you much more benefits in life.

You know how hard it is to play poker for a living? Think about healthy insurance/tax/break-even stretches as well as needing a strong understanding of how to manage your money and how to pay yourself. There are a lot of things these youtubers don't even know however, they claim they play for a living. If they were making so much money, they would not be vlogging, there is a reason they are doing it. They don't foresee themselves doing it forever.

I say it all the time to people getting into it now, you're years behind the curve. A lot do not want to hear that, but, it's pretty close to the truth.
It's something I really want to take a shot at. I have backup careers and free schooling available to me already, but I'm not as keen on them as I am poker. I've played for about 3 years now, and taken the game seriously for over a year, my goal isn't just crushing 2/5 I want to play 25/50 one day, make millions of dollars, and right now in my life is the perfect time to take an actual shot at this.
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:36 AM   #18117
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Re: Building a live poker bankroll

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It's something I really want to take a shot at. I have backup careers and free schooling available to me already, but I'm not as keen on them as I am poker. I've played for about 3 years now, and taken the game seriously for over a year, my goal isn't just crushing 2/5 I want to play 25/50 one day, make millions of dollars, and right now in my life is the perfect time to take an actual shot at this.

Bro i just turned 23 years old and have been living in Vegas since i graduated college last May . I play 2/5 about 60 hrs per week .Please feel free to pm me
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:52 AM   #18118
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Re: Building a live poker bankroll

Millions of dollars with poker?
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:57 AM   #18119
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Re: Building a live poker bankroll

Don't worry about the millions man, just worry about playing sound poker with 100BB at 1-2 for now. If you have the year off, enough funds for life outside of the 20 buy-ins for poker, just don't get too far ahead of yourself and try...I think you will quickly realize though that the grind of it all is pretty blowie but if you love it, then go for it Worst that happens is you go bust, go back to work, save up another 4K and possibly go bust again or run it up right?
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Old 02-17-2017, 08:59 AM   #18120
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Re: Building a live poker bankroll

Everyone loves poker when they win how much you love it when you lost buy-in after buy-in is what will make you and how you react.
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Old 02-17-2017, 09:42 AM   #18121
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Everyone loves poker when they win how much you love it when you lost buy-in after buy-in is what will make you and how you react.
Amen to that. Ive left a poker room talking to myself a few times.
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Old 02-17-2017, 09:42 AM   #18122
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Bro i just turned 23 years old and have been living in Vegas since i graduated college last May . I play 2/5 about 60 hrs per week .Please feel free to pm me
I will definitely shoot you a pm with some questions in the near future, thank you!!

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Don't worry about the millions man, just worry about playing sound poker with 100BB at 1-2 for now. If you have the year off, enough funds for life outside of the 20 buy-ins for poker, just don't get too far ahead of yourself and try...I think you will quickly realize though that the grind of it all is pretty blowie but if you love it, then go for it Worst that happens is you go bust, go back to work, save up another 4K and possibly go bust again or run it up right?
I just want a shot at it, a shot at the dream even if I come up short it's just 4K in the grand scheme of things and I can pursue other things knowing I gave it a chance. I could also crush the games but not love the grind, but it would still be a great side income when I do feel like playing!

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Everyone loves poker when they win how much you love it when you lost buy-in after buy-in is what will make you and how you react.
I'm currently in a 9 buyin downswing and still loving it, even though it's A LOT of money to me I'm usually over it in about 5 minutes, and use it to just realise that variance is a huge part of the game and see if there's anything I could have down differently (not in the spots I got coolered or sucked out on, but other spots where my winrate could've been higher
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Old 02-17-2017, 09:48 AM   #18123
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Man, to be 23 again.
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Old 02-17-2017, 09:51 AM   #18124
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Man, to be 23 again.
Wouldn't trade it for the world man
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Old 02-17-2017, 10:01 AM   #18125
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Turtol View Post
I really want to take a big shot at playing live poker. My main problem is lack of a bankroll, I'm nearly done a year of travelling and when I get home I want to build a bankroll ($4,000) and take a shot at playing full time. Does anyone have tips for someone who is 23 years old to build up a bankroll? I have the luxury of living with my parents rent free as long as I'm pursuing something.

I was thinking some sort of job not at home for a few months to make tons of money to support my living expenses aswell as have a $4,000 br to play 1/2 (I wouldn't mind working a weekend job for living expenses with $4,000 to play with.

Here are a few skills I have, card dealer (croupier) can deal most table games and very high limit baccarat, cocktail bartender, currently with the Canadian armed forces aswell on a year off.

Someone suggest being a croupier on a cruise ship which actually sounds pretty good, are there any other jobs that anyone can think of to just grind out a bunch of money? Some jobs out of the ordinary where money is the only goal.

Or would people advocate a full time job near a casino and just take 2 buyin shots every other week?

Sorry if this is the wrong forum to put this!

I really want to build up a bankroll as I think my skill level would be sufficient to play 2/5 with a decent win rate (basing this off that one young youtuber that plays 2/5 for a living and his hands all seem quite poorly played, yet still turns a profit.)

E/ the YouTube I meant is Brad Owen

Get a job. It's the most +EV way to make money when you don't have a BR. Ideally, one would go to school, get a solid career started and play poker on the side. When you get the itch to go pro, take a sabbatical from work and play for some time to see if you can actually do it. The biggest thing is to make sure you have options. So many people think they can crush, realization sets in and they're stuck with crap dead end jobs because they had no way out. Rule #1: always have an exit strategy. That goes for every situation in life.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Dochrohan View Post
You'd be better off putting your time into a career than live poker as a serious profession. Games are not getting any better and industry outside of poker is.

Turning a profit is one thing, and crushing a game is another.

Winning 4-5bb/hr aint crap and anyone who says so is not very good.

These youtubers are convincing avg shmos to take shots at something they should not be doing, but, instead be looking for a career to maximize earning and give you much more benefits in life.

You know how hard it is to play poker for a living? Think about healthy insurance/tax/break-even stretches as well as needing a strong understanding of how to manage your money and how to pay yourself. There are a lot of things these youtubers don't even know however, they claim they play for a living. If they were making so much money, they would not be vlogging, there is a reason they are doing it. They don't foresee themselves doing it forever.

I say it all the time to people getting into it now, you're years behind the curve. A lot do not want to hear that, but, it's pretty close to the truth.

Second boom anyone??? We can all hope, right? Using my one time here....

Quote:
Originally Posted by Turtol View Post
It's something I really want to take a shot at. I have backup careers and free schooling available to me already, but I'm not as keen on them as I am poker. I've played for about 3 years now, and taken the game seriously for over a year, my goal isn't just crushing 2/5 I want to play 25/50 one day, make millions of dollars, and right now in my life is the perfect time to take an actual shot at this.


You should google "Dunning-Krueger". You think your skill level is of a 2/5 player based on the results of a youtuber who is not telling you 100% of the story. Hell, he might not even be a winning player. It sounds like you've never even played 2/5 - specifically because you would have said you've played 2/5 instead of using a youtuber as your comparison. Just because you think you're that good watching it on your laptop, it's a lot different when your trying to make a decision and if you're wrong it's money out of your pocket.

Playing 25/50 and making millions is delusions of grandeur. A) do you even know how often 25/50 runs? B) do you realize how hard it is to make millions playing poker?
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