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Old 02-14-2017, 06:02 PM   #18076
Tiltyjoker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
I realize that the bet is most likely not going to happen. But I honestly find it beyond annoying when this thread is littered with people coming out of no where with all of their pie in the sky comments on wr potential and what can and can not be done. I have said it countless times I am no wizard. But for some reason I do in fact have a skill set that has enabled me to beat these games at a clip well above 7bb/hr year in and year out...and I am in fact willing to put my money where my mouth is with regards to that statement.
Are people really saying $14/hr @ 1/2 and $35/hr @ 2/5 is not sustainable? I'm so confused... you guys are debating $28 and $70 right!?
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Old 02-14-2017, 06:07 PM   #18077
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No, they are definitely debating the former.
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Old 02-14-2017, 06:24 PM   #18078
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We're in a NL forum. bb means "big blind", and BB means "big blind but I held shift". They're talking about sustaining $14/hr @ $1/2 long term. Which I think it possible, but requires work and some game selection.
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Old 02-14-2017, 07:12 PM   #18079
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We're in a NL forum. bb means "big blind", and BB means "big blind but I held shift". They're talking about sustaining $14/hr @ $1/2 long term. Which I think it possible, but requires work and some game selection.
Obv rake is a big factor. Saw some talk about $10-$15 max rake at 1/2 which is nuts. My main casino has 10% $5 max (might be $4) +$1 for bad beat. I'd argue that closer to 20bb/hr is sustainable in that game. Don't think that 7bb/hr being sustainable at 1/2 can even be debated.

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Old 02-14-2017, 07:19 PM   #18080
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I was wondering when somebody would do a bet.

7bb/hr is not really impressive for 2/5, but if you got the grapes to bet it's not possible ,pony up to a bet.

I'd be interested in doing this @ 5/10
7bb/hr ($35/hr) is not impressive. I feel like im in the twilight zone. Who the hell would bet against that?
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Old 02-14-2017, 07:28 PM   #18081
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Obv rake is a big factor. Saw some talk about $10-$15 max rake at 1/2 which is nuts. My main casino has 10% $5 max (might be $4) +$1 for bad beat. I'd argue that closer to 20bb/hr is sustainable in that game. Don't think that 7bb/hr being sustainable at 1/2 can even be debated.
I think a lot of "winners" greatly underestimate how well they have ran over their career.
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Old 02-14-2017, 07:38 PM   #18082
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I think a lot of "winners" greatly underestimate how well they have ran over their career.
I understand how bad it can get. I had one of the worst years ever in online MTT's pre black friday. (it's completely diff but I know what the world is against you, **** is hitting the fan, punching walls/monitors variance looks/feels like)

I haven't had a year under 7bb/hr at live cash in over 10 years. It's still not some insane sample but its truly surprising what others are saying... dreading possible regression toward the mean :/

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Old 02-14-2017, 07:42 PM   #18083
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I think a lot of "winners" greatly underestimate how well they have ran over their career.
+1

As someone who ran average to good my first 1000 hours followed by unimaginably horrendously bad for the next 2000 hours, I can reasonably say a 1000 hour sample size is still fairly meaningless for determining your sustainable or true win rate.

There are just so so so many ways to run good that most people overlook as "just playing my A-game," and the inverse and seemingly innumerable number of ways things can go against you.

I have no idea what my long term sustainable WR is, nor do I really care anymore. I stopped meticulously tracking my WR, only the P&L. I've got all the data to eventually retabulate but it's just not that important IMO.
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Old 02-15-2017, 03:55 AM   #18084
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I'd say throughout my poker time, I've logged around 5 million+ hands between online and live @ a minimum.

If you don't think I understand what running bad is, you're mistaken.
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Old 02-15-2017, 04:19 AM   #18085
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I'd say throughout my poker time, I've logged around 5 million+ hands between online and live @ a minimum.

If you don't think I understand what running bad is, you're mistaken.
How many hands online have you played?
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Old 02-15-2017, 04:29 AM   #18086
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Obviously the bulk is online. It's too hard to accumulate those numbers live.
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Old 02-15-2017, 05:21 AM   #18087
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How many years did you play online full time for?
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Old 02-15-2017, 05:40 AM   #18088
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I've always played part-time. I've played online seriously for maybe 2 years. While taking off at least an entire month once a year every year.
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Old 02-15-2017, 09:13 AM   #18089
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I've always played part-time. I've played online seriously for maybe 2 years. While taking off at least an entire month once a year every year.
5,000,000 hands in 2 years?

Part time?

You would have to be 16 tabling

11 months per year
3 hours per day
60 hands per hour
26 days per month

and still not have 5,000,000 hands

Sorry, but this claim is pretty high on my BS meter.
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Old 02-15-2017, 09:13 AM   #18090
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Well, I played more than part-time, never considered full time and I was certainly mass-tabling. Name of the game in SNGs. And there was definitely streaks where I played 7 days a week. I just operated an at home business in which I put time in. I split more favor in poker in time at the moment because it just required a lot less. But, to be fair, I don't really care what you think.
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Old 02-15-2017, 09:20 AM   #18091
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Originally Posted by Dochrohan View Post
Well, I played more than part-time, never considered full time and I was certainly mass-tabling. Name of the game in SNGs. And there was definitely streaks where I played 7 days a week. I just operated an at home business in which I put time in. I split more favor in poker in time at the moment because it just required a lot less. But, to be fair, I don't really care what you think.
That's cool, but you're clearly "misrepresenting" something. First you said you always played part time and now that I called you out, you say you played more than part time.

Anyway, it doesnt matter. The point in claiming 5,000,000 hands is to show how much experience you have. Playing tons of hands you pick up betting patterns and sizing tells. You see the same situations over and over. You get rock solid reads on certain players and certain type players. You get invaluable experience.

Anyone 16 tabling isnt "playing" 5,000,000 hands. They are on auto pilot. You're doing none of that playing that many tables.
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Old 02-15-2017, 09:36 AM   #18092
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I should Also note I have played poker Since pre Blackfriday, however that volume pre bf was not large but I have played the poker post Black Friday quite a lot. The bulk came in those 2 years I was mass tabling every session.

You attempted to call me out, I never considered my hours full time as I had 2 jobs but feel free to be anal about the hours. Sure you could say full time but it never was that way.
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Old 02-15-2017, 09:40 AM   #18093
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Claiming 16 taboes is auto pilot shows your disrespect. I Will say when opstarten to Maas taboe it was certainly autopilot and I missed out on Money but as you play more and become familiar with the speed and players, you certainly dont autopilot.

There is def a breaking point for every format and player on tables.

I was playing a long time 9 mans
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Old 02-15-2017, 11:42 AM   #18094
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Mike, he's not saying he played 5m hands in 2 years. He's saying he's played for 10+ years, and only 2 of those years were full time.
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Old 02-15-2017, 11:52 AM   #18095
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When did we go from the consensus that good players can average about 10bb/hr for 1/2, 1/3 to people claiming it's unlikely even the best can average 7bb/hr?

Two things are happening: Players are vastly overrating their own skills w/ regard to LLSNL. Players are underselling just how bad a majority of the LLSNL player pool really is.

And again, comparing LLSNL to online poker is like comparing apples to oranges. There is no real point to it.
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Old 02-15-2017, 11:57 AM   #18096
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Mike, he's not saying he played 5m hands in 2 years. He's saying he's played for 10+ years, and only 2 of those years were full time.
Where do you get that from this quote of his

"I've always played part-time. I've played online seriously for maybe 2 years. While taking off at least an entire month once a year every year. "
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Old 02-15-2017, 11:59 AM   #18097
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When did we go from the consensus that good players can average about 10bb/hr for 1/2, 1/3 to people claiming it's unlikely even the best can average 7bb/hr?

Two things are happening: Players are vastly overrating their own skills w/ regard to LLSNL. Players are underselling just how bad a majority of the LLSNL player pool really is.

And again, comparing LLSNL to online poker is like comparing apples to oranges. There is no real point to it.
An experienced online player with very little live playing time said that its unlikely even the best can avg 7BB/hr. He was clearly speaking about something hes unfamiliar with.
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Old 02-15-2017, 12:10 PM   #18098
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And again, comparing LLSNL to online poker is like comparing apples to oranges. There is no real point to it.
Simply to play devils advocate, I belive SRT was using his experience with win rates from an online background as a guideline for what can be achieved. Meaning, even in the glory days of online poker, 30bb/100 would be rather exceptional.

So it truly is the upper bound, and it can be compared to live in the sense it was a time when games were at their peak / people were all bad / everyone limped / everyone sized bad / everyone stacked off with tpnk.

Present day, I play FR 10NL online and agree that it is tougher than 2/5 live so it's hard to make any comparisons. That said, I've still had 30bb/100 stretches and you realize they really are ridiculous heaters when you have more of this perspective (from volume of play).

The things that make win rates apples/oranges from online/live aren't the poor play though. It's that the effective stack sizes and raise sizes make them two totally different games. At 10NL, it is very rare to see an open > $0.35. At 2/5, $25 opens are standard and many $30. Stuff like this is what makes the games hard to compare, you are effectively short stacking a higher stakes game when you are playing in a good 2/5.
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Old 02-15-2017, 12:32 PM   #18099
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I'd be curious to see what the longest break even stretches live for somebody was.

Tough to do this though because you need a long term sample size to say you're breaking even and not just running standard for your win-rate.
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Old 02-15-2017, 12:39 PM   #18100
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I'd be curious to see what the longest break even stretches live for somebody was.

Tough to do this though because you need a long term sample size to say you're breaking even and not just running standard for your win-rate.
Mine is 230 hours. That's my worst losing streak and the time it took to get back to even since the losing streak started.
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