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Old 02-11-2017, 07:39 AM   #18026
homerdash
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

let's give 2017 a chance

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Old 02-11-2017, 11:25 AM   #18027
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quick question. I have seen on here that if you are getting around 5 to 10 bbs/hour in NL games you are doing well. What about limit games? What should be a good bbs/hour rate?

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Old 02-11-2017, 11:57 AM   #18028
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I'd ask in a limit forum, but the general wisdom that I remember from old poker books was that a good player could expect to win about 1 Big Bet (equivalent to 2 Big Blinds) per hour.
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Old 02-11-2017, 12:03 PM   #18029
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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
I'd ask in a limit forum, but the general wisdom that I remember from old poker books was that a good player could expect to win about 1 Big Bet (equivalent to 2 Big Blinds) per hour.
Great. Thank you. Sorry about that, I forgot this was nl forum.

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Old 02-11-2017, 02:47 PM   #18030
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Twisted1 View Post
Quick question. I have seen on here that if you are getting around 5 to 10 bbs/hour in NL games you are doing well. What about limit games? What should be a good bbs/hour rate?

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The best make 7-8 bb/hr in NL. More than that is NOT sustainable.

1 big bet/hour is the standard good winrate in limit, at least according to Rounders.
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Old 02-11-2017, 02:57 PM   #18031
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Originally Posted by ultimate_grinder View Post
The best make 7-8 bb/hr in NL. More than that is NOT sustainable.
Citation needed. Several folks ITT have posted graphs of over 1K (and in a couple of cases 2K) hours with WRs over 10bb/hr.

Not saying it's common, but it has definitely been done on a sustained basis.
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Old 02-11-2017, 03:02 PM   #18032
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Citation needed. Several folks ITT have posted graphs of over 1K (and in a couple of cases 2K) hours with WRs over 10bb/hr.

Not saying it's common, but it has definitely been done on a sustained basis.
2K hour heaters can happen. Someone gets to run that good. Obviously no way to cite what's not possible in like 10K+ hours.
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Old 02-11-2017, 04:12 PM   #18033
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Online is about smaller edges over large quantities of hands.

Live is about massive edges in smaller samples of hands (because the game is just so slow, you get to think way deeper about each spot as well)
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Old 02-11-2017, 05:47 PM   #18034
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u_g, I suggest you go read bip!'s posts about statistics and 95% confidence intervals ITT before you post any more about what's possible.
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Old 02-11-2017, 07:55 PM   #18035
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Remember also there are guys playing 1/2 deep buying in for 1k. The game plays much bigger than a 100 cap 200NL obv and so bb/HR will be inflated.
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Old 02-11-2017, 08:02 PM   #18036
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Originally Posted by ultimate_grinder View Post
The best make 7-8 bb/hr in NL. More than that is NOT sustainable.

1 big bet/hour is the standard good winrate in limit, at least according to Rounders.
Im supremely confidant that I can beat 1/2 for more than 7-8BB/hr. I know quite a few people who can. Of course none of them are playing 1/2.
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Old 02-12-2017, 08:57 AM   #18037
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

1bb is good 2bb+ is great for limit.

So far this year over 150 hours in at 5/10 I am @ 10bb/hr less than 30 hours of 10/20 and currently 9bb/hr, I would expect this to dip.

I bet I could beat American 1/2 for +10bb/hr easily. With your rake being so low, I do not see any excuse why the game cant be beat for 15-20bb by crushing the hell out of it. You do not see these winrates because they quickly move up.
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Old 02-12-2017, 10:32 AM   #18038
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Oh boy more pie in the sky stuff.

Poker facts

Every one has leaks
the "really good' players have waaay less than their opponents - and have significantly more self awareness
I got called out in another thread that stomping the sht out of 2/5 is no great accomplishment

Its not. But in order to have that 10+bb w/r over the long haul year in and year out takes a skill set that most of the gamboolin population can not seem to muster. The skill set is nothing special...but for some reason very few can do it consistently and persistently
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Old 02-12-2017, 10:45 AM   #18039
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Oh boy more pie in the sky stuff.

Poker facts

Every one has leaks
the "really good' players have waaay less than their opponents - and have significantly more self awareness
I got called out in another thread that stomping the sht out of 2/5 is no great accomplishment

Its not.
But in order to have that 10+bb w/r over the long haul year in and year out takes a skill set that most of the gamboolin population can not seem to muster. The skill set is nothing special...but for some reason very few can do it consistently and persistently
That's like saying that throwing a football and accurately hitting a moving target 30 yards away is no great accomplishment. Its not if youre Drew Brees. It comes easy to him because he has natural talent and has been doing it so long. For the majority of the world, it would be next to impossible.

Some people can shoot a pistol and hit a target 20 yards away without any trouble at all. After all, you just look at the target and pull the trigger. The bullet will go where you are looking. It comes easy to some people. Other people couldnt hit the side of a barn.

When something comes easy to you, you cant seem to understand why other people cant do it.
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Old 02-12-2017, 12:22 PM   #18040
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Originally Posted by Dochrohan View Post

I bet I could beat American 1/2 for +10bb/hr easily. With your rake being so low, I do not see any excuse why the game cant be beat for 15-20bb by crushing the hell out of it. You do not see these winrates because they quickly move up.
Curious where are you from and what is your standard rake? In California it's a $5 or $6 drop per flop. Seems steep to me and I can't imagine it being more elsewhere.

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Old 02-12-2017, 12:28 PM   #18041
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It is like 10% up to €10 and sometimes not as high and I have seen higher.

10% 10 is the std here.
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Old 02-12-2017, 09:32 PM   #18042
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Playing 1/2. Up $2165 after 50 hours, 15 total sessions. Two losing session, two break even. Best session +616, worst -200
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Old 02-12-2017, 09:55 PM   #18043
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Nice start, F&C. I don't think it's sustainable, but it's nice to have a cushion of winnings to fall back on when variance gets nasty.
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Old 02-12-2017, 10:22 PM   #18044
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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Nice start, F&C. I don't think it's sustainable, but it's nice to have a cushion of winnings to fall back on when variance gets nasty.
That is what I have been telling myself. The goal has been to build up that cushion. Trying to stay level headed and keep on learning
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Old 02-12-2017, 10:44 PM   #18045
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Really rough 200-hour stretch for me. It's been a really long BE stretch, especially since I just get to play once a week. It's obvious I haven't been playing my greatest either, but I'm hanging tough. WR dropped 2bb during this stretch. I also recently bought a house and changed home casinos. Still all 1/2, but now max BI is $200 instead of $300. I've played my last 50ish hours there.

707.5 hours
$16.27/hr
$11,510 in profit
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Old 02-13-2017, 09:53 AM   #18046
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Originally Posted by pokerodox View Post
Real BR/game selection question. I'd like to minimize my risk of ruin.

I have $3k to play. After that I get $100 per month allowance. I would really like to avoid busting the $3k and ending up on $100/mo for poker, so let's just assume $3k is my whole roll and if I bust it I quit poker, even though that's not quite true.
Can you do something to increase your allowance? Get a job, get a better job if you already have a job. It's not clear if you get your allowance from your parents because your still a kid living at home, or have a wife and family and can only afford to pull 100 per month out of the budget for poker.
Either way I guess the answer is the same, either play very small stakes and win, or increase your allowance to replenish your br. Good luck.
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Old 02-13-2017, 09:56 AM   #18047
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I hit 13 winning sessions in a row but lost on my 14th. (My record is 14). Ran AK into QQ on AKQ flop in $1300 pot 3 ways.....blah. Couldnt make a comeback after that one.
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Old 02-13-2017, 10:00 AM   #18048
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by kb5zcr View Post
Can you do something to increase your allowance? Get a job, get a better job if you already have a job. It's not clear if you get your allowance from your parents because your still a kid living at home, or have a wife and family and can only afford to pull 100 per month out of the budget for poker.
Either way I guess the answer is the same, either play very small stakes and win, or increase your allowance to replenish your br. Good luck.
LOL.

I'm fairly certain, he gets an allowance (from his finances) that he is "allowed" to play with either from an advisor, or most likely a wife/girlfriend.

I'd say the odds of it being his parents are <1%.

I'd say, you're doing it right, just take it slow, it will come eventually. Best of luck.
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Old 02-13-2017, 02:49 PM   #18049
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Re: Dealing with downswings

Thanks everyone.

roll now at $4900, grown from $3k mostly at 3/5, but also some 4/8 O8 and 15/30 O8 and 1/3 nlhe.

Next step? Am I ready for 3/5 or should I still be trying to play as much 1/3 as possible until I hit $8k. Assume I beat 1/3 and 3/5, but worried about RoR still.

Here is what I'm thinking:

<$5K, play mostly 1/3, but mix in 3/5.

>$5K, play mostly 3/5.

>$8K, switch completely to 3/5.

>$12K, switch to 5/5 PLO (this is my preferred game).

oh, and <$3K, 1/3 only.

Prolly all of those thresholds should be doubled, but I'm impatient, and can replenish my roll with some embarrassment with my wife.

Thoughts?

Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerodox View Post
Real BR/game selection question. I'd like to minimize my risk of ruin.

I have $3k to play. After that I get $100 per month allowance. I would really like to avoid busting the $3k and ending up on $100/mo for poker, so let's just assume $3k is my whole roll and if I bust it I quit poker, even though that's not quite true.

My game choices are 1/3 with 60-200 BI, 3/5 with 200-500 BI, 5/5 PLO with 300-1000 BI.

Let's say I beat the field by about the same amount in nlhe and PLO if playing about 100-200 BB. I've played a fair amount of 5/5 PLO but none of that was short stacking. I am not so confident in my SS (BI 300) PLO game, but I could confidently SS nlhe. Should I:
(1) SS 1/3, BI 60.
(2) 1/3, BI 200.
(3) SS 3/5, BI 200.
(4) 3/5, BI 500.
(5) SS 5/5, BI 300 (would involve boning up my PLO SS game just to build my roll).
(6) 5/5, BI 1000.

Thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dubey View Post
If you are looking for lowest RoR, then I guess short stacking 1/3. But RoR should be pretty low in a 200 max 1/3 game with 15 buy-ins if you are a solid winner in the game. People are going to tell you that a 15 buy-in downswing will happen at some point, even if you are a crusher, and they may be right, but the chances that it happens to you at the very start are pretty low.

I would take option 2. Gives you the best opportunity to build your bankroll while offering low Risk of Ruin.
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
i'm not a fan of short stacking. if 1/3 is the lowest game i would tighten up your game and play 100 BB's. try to book a couple wins playing a value oriented ABC game to give your roll a cushion
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
Wtf do you expect to accomplish with $60 at a 1/3 game?

If you have a far amount of experience playing higher limits, you should know if you can beat the game. If you can beat the game buy in full to 1/3 or 3/5 (tho 67bb max bi @ 1/3 is turrrible). You're gonna have to nit it up regardless of what you do, might as well get max value
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
A good short-stack strategy is 1) very boring and 2) pretty high variance. Play 1/3 and buy in full.
Quote:
Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
Correct short stack strat is actually pretty high variance as it has you shoving like ATs or mid pairs in a ton of spots.

If you want to short stack and play tight people will always pay you off -- but if you're ganna play tight you're better off buying in full tho. That being said, if you have a massive RoR then maybe shortstack/tight isnt the worst option, it's actually how I built my roll the first few months.
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Originally Posted by soxfan43 View Post
This resonates with everyone! I feel like my first mistake in a hand often leads to justification for the second and third mistakes.
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Old 02-13-2017, 03:15 PM   #18050
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you beat a game for 5bb /hr, what percentile would that generally put you in? Top ~10% of players?

What about 10bb /hr. Top 2% or 3% of players?

Those are just my guesses.
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