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Old 02-01-2017, 06:24 PM   #17951
gobbledygeek
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Re: Dealing with downswings

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Originally Posted by NebDanger View Post
and making proper decisions preflop can be the difference between booking a loss or booking a win.
Amen to that. Two sessions ago I made 3 (THREE!) terrible postflop decisions in THE SAME HAND (I mean, lol, I'm too embarrassed to even give a HH). It cost me dearly, and was the difference between a good session and a poor one. It's tough to be a consistent winner if you are constantly blowing one big hand per session, and you have to be honest with yourself about it (i.e. even if you aced every other decision for the session, these big lone mistakes will sink you).

GcluelesspoordecisionnoobG
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Old 02-01-2017, 06:25 PM   #17952
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Wasn't clear to me what your win rate was in light of this back and forth. When you said 17 bb/hr, does that mean you're winning $85/hour in 5/10 (assuming you were winning at the same rate in each game) or $170/hour. The former is still an incredible win rate that you should really be proud of, but the latter seems almost unheard of.
$102.5/hr at 5/10. I think $170/hr is possible at 5/10 fwiw (I know i'm not capable of that high of that high of a winrate currently). I would be really surprised if any of the east coast regs I play with are anywhere near that high. But I logged a good amount of 5/10 hours @ Commerce with a savage reg there. I wouldn't be shocked if his winrate was higher.... granted overall winrates should typically be higher there due to the amount of action the games have. Anyways I'm sure there are a handful that crush at that rate.

Live winrates are tricky and I think generally too many players are overly obsessed with it, myself included. It's really hard to play enough hands and by the time you do play a lot, the game conditions could have changed drastically. Also, you can pretty easily be on the wrong side of say, 5 coolers when 200bb effective in a row, thats a 1,000bb downswing doesn't mean you suck. And vice versa... doesn't mean you're a stud.

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Old 02-01-2017, 06:38 PM   #17953
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Re: Dealing with downswings

Downswing should be measured in BB's rather than "BI's" since people buy-in for different amounts. Assuming OP is talking about 100 BB buy-ins as opposed to 150-200 BB's than a 1100 BB downswing looks pretty mellow to me.

Variance calculators are a helpful tool to look at things in the theoretical world but nothing about poker is "static" unless you are playing with the same 8 villains in the same seating arrangements day after day who never improve their game. Since we all know this doesn't actually happen in the real world I find variance calculators fairly pointless.
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Old 02-01-2017, 06:45 PM   #17954
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Re: Dealing with downswings

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Variance calculators are a helpful tool to look at things in the theoretical world but nothing about poker is "static" unless you are playing with the same 8 villains in the same seating arrangements day after day who never improve their game. Since we all know this doesn't actually happen in the real world I find variance calculators fairly pointless.
And this is why winrates could also be seen as a fairly useless metric when attempting to accurately predict the future.

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Old 02-01-2017, 06:50 PM   #17955
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think BB is Big Blinds bb is big bets. Or pokertracker big blinds, but they have abandoned it as well.
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Old 02-01-2017, 07:12 PM   #17956
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Re: Dealing with downswings

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Amen to that. Two sessions ago I made 3 (THREE!) terrible postflop decisions in THE SAME HAND (I mean, lol, I'm too embarrassed to even give a HH). It cost me dearly, and was the difference between a good session and a poor one. It's tough to be a consistent winner if you are constantly blowing one big hand per session, and you have to be honest with yourself about it (i.e. even if you aced every other decision for the session, these big lone mistakes will sink you).

GcluelesspoordecisionnoobG
This really resonates with me. A month or two ago I made a terrible, terrible decision to try to bluff an old man who (unsurprisingly) had flopped a boat. Gave away $900 in one hand, which knocked almost $3/hour off of my 2016 win rate. Also too embarrassed to post the hand, suffice to say I had an OK spot to bluff on flop but stubbornly continued on the turn and river when I should've known I was never getting a fold.
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Old 02-01-2017, 09:09 PM   #17957
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Re: Dealing with downswings

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I dunno if this will be locked or moved or whatever, since it isn't really a strategy thread, but here goes.

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I assume from the comment made by the "live one" (and your winrate) that you VPIP fairly small, 10-15% or less? This can actually be a fairly high variance style over the short term, and by variance I mean everything, getting big hands when no one else does, getting outdrawn, or constantly running into the top of ranges. You simply must get full value for the hands that you do play, or your winrate can take quite a beating in the short term, whereas for someone who is VPIPing 30%, eh, a set is just a set, if I'm beat, let's move on. While the 30% percenter can have evn more wild swings in the course of a night, the sheer number of extra hands he plays can have an overall smoothing effect on his winrate.
While I would NOT suggest opening up your game in the middle of a downswing. it sounds like you have done a lot of work on your game, and while your winrate may be a function of the games you pay in (high rake, lower max buyins, etc.), it seems a bit small for that amount of work to me. After your game gets back on track, you might consider opening up your ranges and see how that goes.

I would also suggest trying to change your mindset a bit, you refer to players as "clueless", "worse than me", "ploppies"(?). Remember that if they weren't these things, the game would be unbeatable.

Also, remember, that longer you play, the more likely you will run into downswings, and some of them will be worse and longer than you can imagine, especially playing part time live. They can feel like they last forever (and they do). If it helps, an 11 buyin downswing doesn't even crack my top ten, and 6 sessions? Minuscule.

Good Luck!
Any math to back up the quoted? Seems kind of a hand-waving argument - someone who plays a lot of hands increases the chances of going on a streak where he shows up with the second best hand a lot during his downswing.
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Old 02-02-2017, 12:29 AM   #17958
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Re: Dealing with downswings

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While the 30% percenter can have evn more wild swings in the course of a night, the sheer number of extra hands he plays can have an overall smoothing effect on his winrate.
aye?

Last edited by DeadMoneyWalking; 02-02-2017 at 12:30 AM. Reason: drrtt, I see other people replied
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Old 02-02-2017, 02:38 AM   #17959
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It makes no sense at all that Vpipping more hands would decrease variance. The opposite should be true.

The hands we would be adding would be approximately breakeven, since if they were clearly profitable we would already be opening them and if they were clearly not it would be dumb to add them.

EV of folding is zero. By not folding ~0EV hands we have a greater deviation from the expected result, which is the greater variance by definition.

Also, I don't think I've heard anyone call poker fish "ploppies" before, hehe. I'm not sure the term fits them the same way it does with recreational pit game players.
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Old 02-02-2017, 07:13 AM   #17960
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Guys, I rarely play my hands anymore, and I never post in this thread anymore, what I posted got moved, sorry.
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Old 02-02-2017, 09:03 AM   #17961
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Online records confirm that TAG is higher variance than LAG. This is mostly because on the times you do VPIP as a TAG, you are likely putting a lot more money in to the pot, whereas LAGs play a lot of small-medium pots and only occasional big ones.
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Old 02-02-2017, 03:10 PM   #17962
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Online records confirm that TAG is higher variance than LAG. This is mostly because on the times you do VPIP as a TAG, you are likely putting a lot more money in to the pot, whereas LAGs play a lot of small-medium pots and only occasional big ones.
What lol. Where are these online records you speak of? Show me any evidence that a LAG's stdev is lower than that of a TAGs. And I suppose nits have the highest variance because they're always jamming money into pots with an overpair?
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Old 02-02-2017, 03:24 PM   #17963
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think people see the sessions where they sit for an hour and half folding preflop and losing $20 doing it as "low variance" as nothing happens. Then the guys getting it in every other hand with trash for +40 -35 -30 -50 +80 -80 +60 as having higher variance.

There's got to be a statistical analysis of this somewhere ... right?
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Old 02-02-2017, 03:41 PM   #17964
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No, the contention is/was that a 28/25 had lower variance in wr than a 16/15 bc of the smoother earnings per 100 hands or however you want to think about it.

Put in a really oversimplified couple of sentences:

LAGs play alot more smaller pots with alot more smaller edges. TAGs play much bigger pots with sort of bigger edges.

I hate statistics and I'm sure 7 people will come in here and re-define variance again so I'll just grab that popcorn. BGP had alot of good stuff to say on this a year or two ago.
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Old 02-02-2017, 04:00 PM   #17965
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

LAG's are often exploiting tendencies repeatedly. For example if somebody is calling too wide pre and then check/folding whenever they brick, the LAG will exploit this by opening wider and cbetting at a very high frequency. Each time they do this it will be profitable while risking a minimal amount.

The TAG however will be more reliant on winning at showdown in a select few big pots, not often picking up various small wins.
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Old 02-02-2017, 06:14 PM   #17966
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LAG is less variance than TAG.
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Old 02-02-2017, 06:36 PM   #17967
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Still waiting for data showing stdev of lag being lower than tag.

Why are FR stdevs lower than 6max when nitring is obviously tighter than 6max equivalent.
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Old 02-02-2017, 07:45 PM   #17968
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Lags win or lose most of their pots on the flop or turn. Tags I'm pretty sure get to the river more often. There's more built in variance in playing an extra street. There's a lot of variance in stud bc there's an extra round of betting.

I'm sure the *** em all bluff all streets lags will have huge variance... but I think those type of players tend to lack discretion. And are misapplying their aggression

Last edited by Tiltyjoker; 02-02-2017 at 07:51 PM.
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Old 02-02-2017, 07:59 PM   #17969
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Originally Posted by Tiltyjoker View Post
Lags win or lose most of their pots on the flop or turn. Tags I'm pretty sure get to the river more often.
Again I'm not sure about the actual debate wrt databases and statistics, but above is not true. It is opposite.

LAG is being misunderstood, here, as it often is.

(Good) LAGs are not 6bet spewing ******s, they play many more hands, in smaller pots, in position, and see many more turns and rivers.
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Old 02-02-2017, 08:28 PM   #17970
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Meale, do a search on posts by mpethybridge with the words TAG, LAG, and variance in it. He was an online poker database "leak finder" pre Black Friday and examined hundreds, if not thousands, of databases, and found that if any two players with the same winrate, the one with the higher VPIP would have lower variance. He posted about it often, with stats to back it up.
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Old 02-02-2017, 10:17 PM   #17971
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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Meale, do a search on posts by mpethybridge with the words TAG, LAG, and variance in it. He was an online poker database "leak finder" pre Black Friday and examined hundreds, if not thousands, of databases, and found that if any two players with the same winrate, the one with the higher VPIP would have lower variance. He posted about it often, with stats to back it up.
I stopped reading after pre black Friday.
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Old 02-02-2017, 11:51 PM   #17972
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I'm sure the *** em all bluff all streets lags will have huge variance... but I think those type of players tend to lack discretion. And are misapplying their aggression
Also, variance is less informative when someone is a losing player anyway.
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Old 02-03-2017, 07:33 AM   #17973
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I stopped reading after pre black Friday.
What part of online did you misunderstand in Garick's first post?
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Old 02-03-2017, 10:41 AM   #17974
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I stopped reading after pre black Friday.
smart play. Would definitely not want to glean any info from someone who has reviewed more poker databases than anyone in the world
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Old 02-03-2017, 03:03 PM   #17975
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Again I'm not sure about the actual debate wrt databases and statistics, but above is not true. It is opposite.

LAG is being misunderstood, here, as it often is.

(Good) LAGs are not 6bet spewing ******s, they play many more hands, in smaller pots, in position, and see many more turns and rivers.
Probably. Maybe im thinking of slags... Would you agree that TAGs get to showdown with a higher % of hands they play than LAGs?
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