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Old 02-01-2017, 12:53 PM   #17926
OvertlySexual
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Re: Dealing with downswings

We as humans like to explain things and put a reason behind them, but randomness has no rhyme and reason and it's just is. Coming to terms with it is a challenge, but this is one of the important lessons poker teaches.

Being on a downswing is frustrating and demoralizing, but all you can do is play one hand at a time to the best of your ability. That's why it's important win or lose (but especially when you win) to judge yourself by how well you played a hand. If you do that, you become results oriented in a good way.

When I first started playing poker online and in financial circumstances far worse than yours, I used to snap at people sometimes, mostly out of frustration.

But later I realized that when you lose a hand and you start berating a player for the way they played theirs, you re losing twice over. One, the actual hand and second the fact that you re giving your opponent the chance to improve. Not to mention that it's not the right thing to do.

That's not to say that downswings don't affect me. Sometimes, I feel and look like a boxer who has been punched around for 12 rounds straight. It is what it is.
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Old 02-01-2017, 01:03 PM   #17927
JayKon
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Re: Dealing with downswings

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarretman View Post
Warning, controversial statements ahead.

Not sure how many total hours you have put in but if your true avg winrate (winrate changes table per table) is around 6-7bb/hr (which is definitely achievable) you are absolutely ****ing destroying the game.

If you're getting 33 hands/hr (above avg I would say, so true BB/100 is probably higher), then you're beating the game for 18-21bb/100 hands. If you're getting 25 hands/hr you are beating the game for 24-28bb/100 hands. Also, this winrate is after rake, which is HUGE in live poker.

So if you're making $21/h at 1/3 your win rate and therefore your edge is huge (like, insanely huge). As your avg winrate increases, your avg variance (or your experience of what we call variance) decreases. Obviously it depends on the table, but overall this holds true.

To my controversial point, I doubt your true win rate is 6-7bb per hour. You probably have considerable leaks and have just been experiencing the good side of variance before you hit this downswing. An 11bb downswing is of course possible if you're playing 6-7bb/hr winner (or even perfect), just very unlikely.

Every time I have had a downswing, looking back, I made a lot of mistakes. A lot of spots where I got unlucky were spots I should have just folded preflop, or something similar.

TL;DR focus on improving your play and table selecting well.
+1

OP should consider this very, very carefully. It goes to the heart of what I suspected when I read the post initially and why I asked for hands to be posted, with reads.
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Old 02-01-2017, 01:10 PM   #17928
Tiltyjoker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
People use both for big blind, these days. Big bet (limit term) is really not in use anymore.
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Originally Posted by OvertlySexual View Post
So you re really winning 8.5 BB per hour?
Yeah that's what I use. But it seemed like they were using bb.
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Old 02-01-2017, 01:12 PM   #17929
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Tiltyjoker View Post
At what rate are you beating 1/3?
7.58 bb/hr over ~3200 hours.

But that overall rate really means nothing as it simply doesn't take into account the drastic difference in quality of the game (i.e. I was beating the game for 9.44 bb/hr at the 2000 hour mark), nor the increase in rake, etc. Heck, the rake has increased $2 in the last year alone, which I've guesstimated will easily cost me upwards of 2 bb/hr.

GthingschangeG
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Old 02-01-2017, 01:58 PM   #17930
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Re: Dealing with downswings

I did something last session I can't recall doing in quite some time: I played (in my humble opinion) a mistake free session. Course, I didn't have many real decision points and everything was mostly pretty ABC standard (imo), the most difficult one (I guess?) being mucking QQ after I 3bet a LP opener and an old guy limp/shoved 66bbs preflop (he showed me the AA), although I did question overshoving my stack the very first hand in a fullhouse-over-fullhouse situation (which I've convinced myself was fine). Anyhoo, I lost 171 bbs in just 6 hours. That's poker.

It took me ~1800 hours to finally go on a 5 BI downswing, which I then turned into a 9.5 BI downswing in a very short time (where I was cruising along at > 9 bb/hr beforehand). That's poker.

Downswings are part of poker. It doesn't even matter if you are playing the perfect version of your strategy, they will happen regardless. You just have to accept this. The key is to stick to your guns, and play your game, the one you know will win long term. And you really have to do your best to leave entitlement at the door. Play each hand and each situation as best you can, and if you do that better than your opponents over the long term, you'll do better than them. But don't expect a nice easy peasy 45 degree angle straight line on your poker graph.

Gacceptthatyouwilllose,andnowdothebestyoucanG
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Old 02-01-2017, 02:16 PM   #17931
FreeAsTheBird
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Re: Dealing with downswings

You have to believe that you can win and run good to run good. It's a decent advantage over players who seem to always complain and expect certain "bad beats" to always come up, and seemingly, they extract this much more than others.

Have confidence and belief in your game. Know that sometimes things don't go well but still "hope" that your cards come and that your opponents range is more average. If you're always worried your opponent has the nuts, they might more than average. Confidence your hand is best when betting for value. If you're coolered, reset back to this mindset. Cannot recall a time personally, that I'm betting and don't think I have the best hand or don't think my opponent will call when bluffing.

You can try to practice visualization techniques, it's what many pro athletes do. Imagine the you with the end result that you want.. maybe imagine what it's like to play the course of the year confidently and end up with a mound of chips in your box. Michael Phelps said in an interview something like he doesn't really feel too surprised when he wins, because he's seen himself touch the wall first thousands of times in his head.

Take some deep breaths, go for a walk, and reset if it's clogging and taking over your mind at the table. If you play very regularly, it may be an idea to try taking a week or two off (if you can) to rework the way you think about poker... or don't think about poker and come back new and fresh.

These are some powerful techniques, enjoy.
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Old 02-01-2017, 02:51 PM   #17932
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by OvertlySexual View Post
I would like to know more about the home games Angrist patronizes in which he gets massages with happy endings.

Btw, this is the problem with the term home game. It can mean a game organized among friends or it can mean an illegal gambling operation. They are different IMO.
Only the best home games

You're right that there's a big difference between what you'll find in a home game. Most of the ones I frequent are mostly poker friend based. There's a couple of guys that run games and invite their friends and a pool of other players they're friendly with. All of them have dedicated dealers (even if that's the host). Depending on who shows up on a given night, it might be 5-6 of us bull****ing and playing mixed games along with our normal $1/2. Or it might be more like a typical casino table with 9-10 guys playing more "seriously", while still drinking and relaxing.

The "entertainment" usually happens when there are non-players around and it's more of a party atmosphere (college football is good for this). Maybe it's the friends that I have that sometimes we pay a girl to waitress, that may be an 'off duty' stripper, or just a girl that likes drinking and fun.

That's wandering off topic a bit, but it gets back to my thinking that there's a lot more session to session variability in game conditions, along with resulting EV.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cannabusto View Post
Not sure if anyone has interest in this but figured I'd see. I created a short R script that calculates and plots some stats. Will maybe develop it further. But this should be easy to replicate yourself if desired using R. I recommend using the RStudio IDE with it because it just makes everything so much cleaner and easier.

I exported a csv from my Poker Income app. This includes some non-session data like player notes and whatnot, so I isolate the sessions at the beginning of the script. Everything else should be self-explanatory.
Yup. Totally easy to follow. /s

Are you manually filtering the game types? Seems like it should be possible to do that automatically. It's what I do in Matlab when I run my data. (Along with breaking down locations and other things).
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Old 02-01-2017, 03:00 PM   #17933
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Yup. Totally easy to follow. /s

Are you manually filtering the game types? Seems like it should be possible to do that automatically. It's what I do in Matlab when I run my data. (Along with breaking down locations and other things).
I didn't here, but yeah, I easily could. I filtered on the row numbers instead.

If anyone exports data from Poker Income, all they have to do is sub in the correct row numbers and play around with plotting until they see what ylim should be. They don't need to know R, they can just c/p.

I'd be happy to help anyone who wants it.
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Old 02-01-2017, 04:01 PM   #17934
Jarretman
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Re: Dealing with downswings

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I did something last session I can't recall doing in quite some time: I played (in my humble opinion) a mistake free session. Course, I didn't have many real decision points and everything was mostly pretty ABC standard (imo), the most difficult one (I guess?) being mucking QQ after I 3bet a LP opener and an old guy limp/shoved 66bbs preflop (he showed me the AA), although I did question overshoving my stack the very first hand in a fullhouse-over-fullhouse situation (which I've convinced myself was fine). Anyhoo, I lost 171 bbs in just 6 hours. That's poker.

It took me ~1800 hours to finally go on a 5 BI downswing, which I then turned into a 9.5 BI downswing in a very short time (where I was cruising along at > 9 bb/hr beforehand). That's poker.

Downswings are part of poker. It doesn't even matter if you are playing the perfect version of your strategy, they will happen regardless. You just have to accept this. The key is to stick to your guns, and play your game, the one you know will win long term. And you really have to do your best to leave entitlement at the door. Play each hand and each situation as best you can, and if you do that better than your opponents over the long term, you'll do better than them. But don't expect a nice easy peasy 45 degree angle straight line on your poker graph.

Gacceptthatyouwilllose,andnowdothebestyoucanG
All I was saying is that if you have a true winrate of 7bb/hr then an 11bi downswong would be very rare/unlikely. Much more likely is that OP isn't a 7bb/hr winner. Much more likely OP has severe leaks that he doesn't even know he has. I had/have a lot of leaks I didn't even know were/are leaks. Most of my downswings would have been halved or at least reduced dramatically if I didn't play considerably worse during them

@GG of course even "perfect" play you can/will still lose some of the time. Downswings will always happen, I just think people compound the negative variance with ever increasing bad play. No one plays as good when they're losing/on a downswing than vice versa.

@OP variance is a concept that will forever elude the minds of humans because we are incapable of fully comprehending it. Like many others have said, just focus on truly playing your best, identifying leaks, plugging those leaks, and forget the rest.
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Old 02-01-2017, 04:19 PM   #17935
gobbledygeek
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Re: Dealing with downswings

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarretman View Post
All I was saying is that if you have a true winrate of 7bb/hr then an 11bi downswong would be very rare/unlikely.
My guess is that if you play enough hours that it would be very rare for a winning player to not experience a severe downswing.

But, agreed, we all have leaks and should concentrate even harder at playing our best (whatever we feel that is), especially during a downswing so as to not compound things (where entitlement tilt might start creeping in).

GcluelessdownswingnoobG
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Old 02-01-2017, 04:43 PM   #17936
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Re: Dealing with downswings

The way I look at it during my downswings is if I am losing money I need to play better. Finger pointing/ blaming variance/ berating players makes you the fish. Just get better. Study more, play your way out, trust your game. At the end of the day your results are based on your choices 100 percent. Downswings are going to happen but 11 BI @ 1/3 (where you opponents arnt good) is just spewy. I'm sure OP has some massive technical and mental game leaks.
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Old 02-01-2017, 04:56 PM   #17937
gobbledygeek
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Re: Dealing with downswings

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Originally Posted by kidgambol View Post
The way I look at it during my downswings is if I am losing money I need to play better. Finger pointing/ blaming variance/ berating players makes you the fish. Just get better. Study more, play your way out, trust your game. At the end of the day your results are based on your choices 100 percent. Downswings are going to happen but 11 BI @ 1/3 (where you opponents arnt good) is just spewy. I'm sure OP has some massive technical and mental game leaks.
Would be very curious as to how many hours you've logged to come to this conclusion?

Of course spew / technical and mental leaks / etc. aren't going to help, and will definitely be a factor.

But this game has a built in short term variance rollercoaster that you will eventually encounter no matter how badly your opponents play (ex. see my 3.3 BI loss I booked in a mere 2 hours against the table maniac that I documented in the maniac thread at the beginning of the year).

Git'spoker,****willhappen,justdealwithitasbestyouc anG
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Old 02-01-2017, 05:04 PM   #17938
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Re: Dealing with downswings

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Would be very curious as to how many hours you've logged to come to this conclusion?

Of course spew / technical and mental leaks / etc. aren't going to help, and will definitely be a factor.

But this game has a built in short term variance rollercoaster that you will eventually encounter no matter how badly your opponents play (ex. see my 3.3 BI loss I booked in a mere 2 hours against the table maniac that I documented in the maniac thread at the beginning of the year).

Git'spoker,****willhappen,justdealwithitasbestyouc anG
I think the majority of downswings are at least somewhat compounded by poor play and mistakes. I think it's pretty rare to have a legit downswing that's due entirely to genuine run bad.
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Old 02-01-2017, 05:17 PM   #17939
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Re: Dealing with downswings

Take a break.
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Old 02-01-2017, 05:19 PM   #17940
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Re: Dealing with downswings

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Take a break.
bump
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Old 02-01-2017, 05:21 PM   #17941
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Talking Re: Dealing with downswings

Although bad play comes with downswings and good play comes with upswings, variance is being severely underestimated itt.
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Old 02-01-2017, 05:32 PM   #17942
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Re: Dealing with downswings

people are telling you you're not very good at this game which is probably true. but dont take that as a burn because practically every single other low stakes player isn't very good either. tbh you probably ran super hot in the beginning (lots of ways you can run good) and didn't both to calculate that. i think a lot of people pros included only whip out the ev calculator when they lose lol. and of course the obvious not having a clue how crazy the variance can be or how to properly calculate their EV. It also depends on how your player pool is, but most good pros true EV is probably right around 7-8bb/hr... so in other words a big downswing should have been expected and its totally normal in this situation.
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Old 02-01-2017, 05:34 PM   #17943
RiverDonkey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiltyjoker View Post
Yeah that's what I use. But it seemed like they were using bb.


Yeah, I was using bb (big blind). I didn't realise people used BB (big bet).. Why use big bet over big blind?


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Old 02-01-2017, 05:37 PM   #17944
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Re: Dealing with downswings

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
My guess is that if you play enough hours that it would be very rare for a winning player to not experience a severe downswing.

But, agreed, we all have leaks and should concentrate even harder at playing our best (whatever we feel that is), especially during a downswing so as to not compound things (where entitlement tilt might start creeping in).

GcluelessdownswingnoobG
There's a HUGE difference between a winning player and a 7bb/hr winner. Not even comparable.

With a 21bb/100 true winrate (consistently) and 80bb/100 stdev your chances of a 1000+bb downswing are very low. Go plug in the numbers if you don't believe me. Maybe the 1/3 games are very crazy and no where near 80bb/100 stdev but I doubt it.

Last edited by Jarretman; 02-01-2017 at 06:04 PM.
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Old 02-01-2017, 05:37 PM   #17945
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Re: Dealing with downswings

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
variance is being severely underestimated itt.
+1

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Old 02-01-2017, 05:41 PM   #17946
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Maybe we should all switch to Bb or bB instead.

I thought it was pretty clear that for a limit game we talked about big bets, and for a no limit or PL game we were talking about big blinds, regardless of the abbreviation.
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Old 02-01-2017, 05:45 PM   #17947
RiverDonkey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Maybe we should all switch to Bb or bB instead.

I thought it was pretty clear that for a limit game we talked about big bets, and for a no limit or PL game we were talking about big blinds, regardless of the abbreviation.


Yeah, I guess having never played limit, I've just used the capitalisations interchangeably. It can be mostly worked out through context except for here where they were talking about winrate in a NL thread and using BB.


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Old 02-01-2017, 05:48 PM   #17948
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Tiltyjoker View Post
Yeah that's what I use. But it seemed like they were using bb.
Wasn't clear to me what your win rate was in light of this back and forth. When you said 17 bb/hr, does that mean you're winning $85/hour in 5/10 (assuming you were winning at the same rate in each game) or $170/hour. The former is still an incredible win rate that you should really be proud of, but the latter seems almost unheard of.
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Old 02-01-2017, 05:54 PM   #17949
gobbledygeek
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Re: Dealing with downswings

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarretman View Post
There's a HUGE difference between a winning player and a 7bb/hr winner. Not even comparable.
That's fair enough, and of course the closer you are on the scale to breakevenish than to crusher then the more likely you are to go on big downswings.

Still, it's not like a 7 bb/hr winner going on a 11 BI downswing is outside the realm of possibility; it's quite doable.

GcluelessdownswingnoobG
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Old 02-01-2017, 06:13 PM   #17950
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Re: Dealing with downswings

Downswings can be very different as well. Getting it all in preflop being an 80% favorite and losing is different from getting it all in preflop and being on the other end (KK vs AA) and is different from making a bad play on multiple streets. I usually give myself a break if it was something unavoidable, which I personally have had a hard time doing running KK into AA 3 times in 2 days, but they were still my actions and decisions that led to the outcome. I think the biggest realization I've made recently is how smallish $50-$100 pots add up in both directions and making proper decisions preflop can be the difference between booking a loss or booking a win. I know that's a pretty generic statement but the old me would never miss a chance to raise with say KQo in MP regardless of table history or action and while most people would consider that standard there are times that it's a losing or break even play.
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