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Old 01-31-2017, 05:28 PM   #17901
adrianpk
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thanks for the comments guys. My 10k is a life roll. So I do believe I should play 1/3 until I have 3 months + advance for bills etc. and 15k for 2/5. If thats better than ill do it. I assume it is.
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Old 01-31-2017, 06:21 PM   #17902
Tiltyjoker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by adrianpk View Post
Hello gents, I recently started to play 1/3 live. Full time. So far I have about 202 hours logged on and im up about 4k.

My question is when should I shot take at 2/5? Currently my bankroll is 10k. Should I wait until I have about 500 hrs first in 1/3, 1000 hours? maybe. Or should I shot take 2 buy ins? Or should I wait until I have about 15k +?

I assume im on a heater tbh
It's a small sample but your winrate is pretty low. I don't think I'd move up to 2/5 until you are able to beat the 1/3 at a better rate. You might be moving up into games you are -ev in.
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Old 01-31-2017, 06:25 PM   #17903
RiverDonkey
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Tiltyjoker View Post
It's a small sample but your winrate is pretty low. I don't think I'd move up to 2/5 until you are able to beat the 1/3 at a better rate. You might be moving up into games you are -ev in.


Is $20/hr considered low at 1/3?


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Old 01-31-2017, 06:53 PM   #17904
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by RiverDonkey View Post
Is $20/hr considered low at 1/3?
When I was sunrunning out of the gate at 1/3 NL against a consistently lol lineup with an ok rake, I would have considered $20/hr (6.7 bb/hr) slightly disappointing.

Now against a more consistently solid lineup and with a suckier rake, I would snap accept that rate with no questions asked.

Gitreallydependsonthequalityofthegameyouplayin,imo G
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Old 01-31-2017, 07:10 PM   #17905
Tiltyjoker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
When I was sunrunning out of the gate at 1/3 NL against a consistently lol lineup with an ok rake, I would have considered $20/hr (6.7 bb/hr) slightly disappointing.

Now against a more consistently solid lineup and with a suckier rake, I would snap accept that rate with no questions asked.

Gitreallydependsonthequalityofthegameyouplayin,imo G
At what rate are you beating 1/3?
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Old 01-31-2017, 07:12 PM   #17906
RiverDonkey
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Tiltyjoker View Post
At what rate are you beating 1/3?


At what rate did you beat 1/3? What do you currently beat your current games for over what sample?


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Old 01-31-2017, 08:12 PM   #17907
Tiltyjoker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by RiverDonkey View Post
At what rate did you beat 1/3? What do you currently beat your current games for over what sample?


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I've played 1/3 once for a total of maybe 20 minutes while I was waiting for a seat at another game... so I don't know. Everyone at the table seemed pretty bad tho. I grinded 1/2 over 10 years ago, I was in college and I didn't keep track. Id guess I was beating the game for over 20bb/hr. The games were a joke back then tho... you'd prob be in the top 5% of the 1/2 player pool back then if you knew when to fold overpairs.

Currently I'm playing 2/5, 5/10 and 10/10 and winning at 17.17bb/hr. 75% of that volume is at 2/5 (1 of the main casinos I play at has a $1k cap). Pretty sure playing in deeper games help with my overall winrate. Even though the higher capped games are usually more tough. 5/10 also plays 5/10/20 semi often, i guess I could try and account for that somehow to get little more accurate #'s.

Last edited by Tiltyjoker; 01-31-2017 at 08:33 PM.
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Old 01-31-2017, 10:48 PM   #17908
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

People underestimate how much you should really have when its your life roll and you have no job. The stress of the downswing/going broke is much more real. If you have 15k to your name, do you really think you'll be able to play your A game after losing 8k, or even 5k? Hitting 0 becomes a reality at that point.

You ALWAYS want to play over-rolled, not at the bare minimum. ESPECIALLY if its your life roll too.

Imo stay at your current game until you hit 20k, for one you want the extra cushion on your roll, and for two you want a bigger sample/experience to know you're capable of beating the games. At that point play 2/5 maybe once a week for a couple months as you continue building and slowly transition into moving up fully.
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Old 01-31-2017, 11:18 PM   #17909
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

1/3 was rough to me at the end of the month. Some coolers, some leakage. 2/5 saved my life as about 2200 of my ~2300 in profit came from 3 soft 2/5 sessions. I tried to upload pics but this website ****ing blows and I don't feel like investing more time in it. Have to read that Mayo post in ATF every damn time.
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Old 01-31-2017, 11:40 PM   #17910
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by cannabusto View Post
1/3 was rough to me at the end of the month. Some coolers, some leakage. 2/5 saved my life as about 2200 of my ~2300 in profit came from 3 soft 2/5 sessions. I tried to upload pics but this website ****ing blows and I don't feel like investing more time in it. Have to read that Mayo post in ATF every damn time.


Use Tapatalk, makes it easy to post pics


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Old 02-01-2017, 12:53 AM   #17911
RiverDonkey
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Tiltyjoker View Post
I've played 1/3 once for a total of maybe 20 minutes while I was waiting for a seat at another game... so I don't know. Everyone at the table seemed pretty bad tho. I grinded 1/2 over 10 years ago, I was in college and I didn't keep track. Id guess I was beating the game for over 20bb/hr. The games were a joke back then tho... you'd prob be in the top 5% of the 1/2 player pool back then if you knew when to fold overpairs.

Currently I'm playing 2/5, 5/10 and 10/10 and winning at 17.17bb/hr. 75% of that volume is at 2/5 (1 of the main casinos I play at has a $1k cap). Pretty sure playing in deeper games help with my overall winrate. Even though the higher capped games are usually more tough. 5/10 also plays 5/10/20 semi often, i guess I could try and account for that somehow to get little more accurate #'s.


Thanks for taking the time to respond. 17bb/hr is considered god like according to everything I've read haha do you think being able to buy in deeper makes it significantly easier? I play $2/5 with a $500 cap and atrocious rake (10% capped at $15) and can only seem to manage 9bb/hr.


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Old 02-01-2017, 02:11 AM   #17912
Tiltyjoker
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by RiverDonkey View Post
Thanks for taking the time to respond. 17bb/hr is considered god like according to everything I've read haha do you think being able to buy in deeper makes it significantly easier? I play $2/5 with a $500 cap and atrocious rake (10% capped at $15) and can only seem to manage 9bb/hr.


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My main Casino I play at 2/5 is $500 cap and $5 every half hour which is really sweet. The $1000 cap 2/5 game takes 10% max $5 +1 for bad beat. That $15 cap rake sounds horrific

Also you do know bb and BB mean different things right?
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Old 02-01-2017, 08:40 AM   #17913
Solomon_Peabody
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Dealing with downswings

I have been playing 1/3 NL at my local venue for about 10 months now, usually about 2-3 sessions a week. I have been winning about 60-65% of my sessions and my hourly rate, over this period of time, has been about 6-7 BB. Over this time I have had coaching and believe that I have been making fewer mistakes.

In the last six sessions, I have lost 11 buyins. Yes ELEVEN. Nearly a third of my profit from last year has gone.
I have been repeatedly sucked out, outdrawn, and basically beaten, by players who are worse than me. Clueless players who I would usually thrash in the long-term (over months) in a routine way.
Today I flopped top set with 66 on a 632 board. Someone bet into me, and I thought I would double up. He was short stacked so I raised him. He had 54 offsuit. Of course I don't fill up.

Every session I went home and calculated my all-in equity on those big hands. Had they run to percentages my expected result is postitive. But I just run SO bad.

I had a "live one" berate me today for playing too few hands. She's loaded. She's probably lost six figures over her last few years playing poker. I just felt irritated.

I think that this has affected my play in the last couple of sessions. I am no longer getting full value for the few good hands that I get. I bet too much to protect my hand from being outdrawn and consequently am not winning as much money as I should from these loose-passive calling station ploppies.

It is not like I am losing money I cannot afford to lose, but losing like this is very, very demoralizing. You feel that you cannot win another session, no matter how well you play.

I have had some losing streaks in the past, but none as bad as this, and when I did have them much of my losses have been secondary to major errors. Not so this time after extensive discussion of hands with my friends/coach.

I am just appreciative of how anyone here with experience on this has dealt with such experiences. Obviously, I will not continue playing if I cannot make a long-term profit.
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Old 02-01-2017, 08:58 AM   #17914
JayKon
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Re: Dealing with downswings

Not sure this post belongs here as it isn't strategy, however, I would suggest that you post some of the hands you were drawn out on. I suspect you're not sizing up your table very well and not reading other players properly.

I'm not on all that much these days, but there are many others that are, particularly Venice. He doesn't say much, but I've never seen him post anything that wasn't worth paying attention to.
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Old 02-01-2017, 09:06 AM   #17915
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

People use both for big blind, these days. Big bet (limit term) is really not in use anymore.
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Old 02-01-2017, 09:07 AM   #17916
scelsi
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Re: Dealing with downswings

11 BI is a shocker the first time it happens. As long as you're getting the money in good, or just getting coolered in spots that, if the hands were reversed, would have played out in exactly the same way, try to just buckle down and grind through the variance.

And don't get caught in the trap of my WR is X and my yearly profit is Y and this swong is driving them down...It's entirely possible that you are not a 6-7bb WR player, and this swong is regression to the mean.

Edit assuming 30hrs/week that's 1200hrs=approx 36k hands, which is a decent enough live sample size, so I can understand.the frustration. Online wizards assume you need more like 100k at the min to estimate your wr, so just don't worry about that metric.
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Old 02-01-2017, 09:09 AM   #17917
Buster65
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Re: Dealing with downswings

I dunno if this will be locked or moved or whatever, since it isn't really a strategy thread, but here goes.

I assume from the comment made by the "live one" (and your winrate) that you VPIP fairly small, 10-15% or less? This can actually be a fairly high variance style over the short term, and by variance I mean everything, getting big hands when no one else does, getting outdrawn, or constantly running into the top of ranges. You simply must get full value for the hands that you do play, or your winrate can take quite a beating in the short term, whereas for someone who is VPIPing 30%, eh, a set is just a set, if I'm beat, let's move on. While the 30% percenter can have evn more wild swings in the course of a night, the sheer number of extra hands he plays can have an overall smoothing effect on his winrate.

While I would NOT suggest opening up your game in the middle of a downswing. it sounds like you have done a lot of work on your game, and while your winrate may be a function of the games you pay in (high rake, lower max buyins, etc.), it seems a bit small for that amount of work to me. After your game gets back on track, you might consider opening up your ranges and see how that goes.

I would also suggest trying to change your mindset a bit, you refer to players as "clueless", "worse than me", "ploppies"(?). Remember that if they weren't these things, the game would be unbeatable.

Also, remember, that longer you play, the more likely you will run into downswings, and some of them will be worse and longer than you can imagine, especially playing part time live. They can feel like they last forever (and they do). If it helps, an 11 buyin downswing doesn't even crack my top ten, and 6 sessions? Minuscule.

Good Luck!
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Old 02-01-2017, 09:11 AM   #17918
Solomon_Peabody
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Re: Dealing with downswings

Well I've gone through my big hands and how much equity I had in them; if they had run according to theoretical expectations, my hourly EV wouldn't have changed much.

I am actually moving to another city in a couple of weeks, and their player pool at the same stakes is significantly weaker.
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Old 02-01-2017, 09:16 AM   #17919
JayKon
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Re: Dealing with downswings

Quote:
Originally Posted by Solomon_Peabody View Post
Well I've gone through my big hands and how much equity I had in them; if they had run according to theoretical expectations, my hourly EV wouldn't have changed much.

I am actually moving to another city in a couple of weeks, and their player pool at the same stakes is significantly weaker.
Well, then you just wanted to whine. Which means that this belongs in BBV.
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Old 02-01-2017, 09:17 AM   #17920
Solomon_Peabody
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Re: Dealing with downswings

I don't think my VPIP is THAT low but I think 17/13 would be about where I am on a full table (10-handed). We have a few European nits (10/7), a few decent white players and a lot of Asian tourist calling stations / fish (50/10).

The particular player, who is a regular, who made that comment about my play is clearly a losing player who I cannot see profiting in the long run any time soon.
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Old 02-01-2017, 09:33 AM   #17921
OvertlySexual
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Also you do know bb and BB mean different things right?
So you re really winning 8.5 BB per hour?
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Old 02-01-2017, 09:42 AM   #17922
Avaritia
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Re: Dealing with downswings

OP, remember this. One day, maybe next month, maybe 2 years from now, you will run even worse.
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Old 02-01-2017, 09:47 AM   #17923
MikeStarr
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Re: Dealing with downswings

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
OP, remember this. One day, maybe next month, maybe 2 years from now, you will run even worse.
I was talking to a friend during my worst downswing and someone nearby said something almost exactly like this. I wanted to throat punch him. That is all.
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Old 02-01-2017, 10:46 AM   #17924
Jarretman
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Re: Dealing with downswings

Warning, controversial statements ahead.

Not sure how many total hours you have put in but if your true avg winrate (winrate changes table per table) is around 6-7bb/hr (which is definitely achievable) you are absolutely ****ing destroying the game.

If you're getting 33 hands/hr (above avg I would say, so true BB/100 is probably higher), then you're beating the game for 18-21bb/100 hands. If you're getting 25 hands/hr you are beating the game for 24-28bb/100 hands. Also, this winrate is after rake, which is HUGE in live poker.

So if you're making $21/h at 1/3 your win rate and therefore your edge is huge (like, insanely huge). As your avg winrate increases, your avg variance (or your experience of what we call variance) decreases. Obviously it depends on the table, but overall this holds true.

To my controversial point, I doubt your true win rate is 6-7bb per hour. You probably have considerable leaks and have just been experiencing the good side of variance before you hit this downswing. An 11bb downswing is of course possible if you're playing 6-7bb/hr winner (or even perfect), just very unlikely.

Every time I have had a downswing, looking back, I made a lot of mistakes. A lot of spots where I got unlucky were spots I should have just folded preflop, or something similar.

TL;DR focus on improving your play and table selecting well.
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Old 02-01-2017, 11:05 AM   #17925
cannabusto
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Not sure if anyone has interest in this but figured I'd see. I created a short R script that calculates and plots some stats. Will maybe develop it further. But this should be easy to replicate yourself if desired using R. I recommend using the RStudio IDE with it because it just makes everything so much cleaner and easier.

I exported a csv from my Poker Income app. This includes some non-session data like player notes and whatnot, so I isolate the sessions at the beginning of the script. Everything else should be self-explanatory.

Quote:
#Read in data and isolate the session data
PokerRaw <- read.csv("Poker_Results_Jan_31_2017.csv")
Poker <- PokerRaw[1:81,]

#Convert Play.Time to a numeric we can work with
Poker$Play.Time <- as.character(Poker$Play.Time)
Poker$Play.Time <- sapply(strsplit(Poker$Play.Time,":"),
function(x) {
x <- as.numeric(x)
x[1]+x[2]/60
}
)

#Isolate January sessions and create subsets by stake
PokerJan <- Poker[61:81,]
PokerJan13 <- Poker[c(61:70,72,74,76:79,81),]
PokerJan25 <- Poker[c(71,75,80),]

#Profit by stake
sum(PokerJan13$Profit)
sum(PokerJan25$Profit)

#Jan winrate
WinrateJan <- sum(PokerJan$Profit)/sum(PokerJan$Play.Time)

#Cumulative profit by session for each stake and then the month as a whole
ok <- cumsum(PokerJan13$Profit)
plot(ok, xlab="Sessions", ylab="Profit", main="1/3 NLHE Jan 2017", ylim=c(0,1200))#set ylim to a bit higher than peak height
lines(ok, col="red")

ok2 <- cumsum(PokerJan25$Profit)
plot(ok2, xlab="Sessions", ylab="Profit", main="2/5 NLHE Jan 2017", ylim=c(0,2300))#set ylim to a bit higher than peak height
lines(ok2, col="blue")

ok3 <- cumsum(PokerJan$Profit)
plot(ok3, xlab="Sessions", ylab="Profit", main="1/3 and 2/5 NLHE Jan 2017", ylim=c(0,2400))#set ylim to a bit higher than peak height
lines(ok3, col="darkgreen")
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