That's a great question. There are a lot of factors that go into it too. I'll try to keep it on topic.

I find home games to be much more hit-or-miss in terms of day to day consistency. Sometimes you've got a whale or two drunk off their ass and spewing chips (I know some guys that straddle $100). That's extremely profitable, moreso than if you ran into him in the casino where he can wander off to blackjack. Other nights only a few people show up and you might end up playing short handed with "decent" regs where everyone knows each other's tendencies well and there's no table to change to. This can be awful for your winrate depending on how the dynamic goes. Should still be able to beat it and have fun doing it though. On average it's probably about as soft as a casino, maybe a little softer. But this is going to depend a lot on who's on the invite list.

A lower rake at a home game should help your WR relative to the casino. Getting "free" drinks and food is hard to quantify in terms BB/hr, but if your casino charges for drinks and comps poorly then the home game should be better for your wallet (although you won't see it in your cash in/out results). One thing to watch out for is drinking too much and having it trash your ability to play.

A home game can also be closer and easier to get to, so you save time, gas, and maybe even get in hours you wouldn't otherwise be able to play. Of course this is dependent on how far away your casino is.

FYI the "massages" available at some home games are of the very fun but possibly very expensive kind. Can be -$EV and/or +lifeEV depending on if you're into that kind of thing.


Overall I think home games are more profitable than casino (or our local Michigan charity room) games. But the bigger gap between a good game and a bad game means you have to know when to either go home, or cash out and BS with people instead of playing.

Thanks! It sounds like something worth trying out.. Particularly because I sometimes wait over an hour for a seat at the casino (need to be there in person to put my name down) and so it could be alright for my hourly if I can sit right down at a home game.

I wouldn't be interested in drinks but during longer sessions I usually buy food and that can be about $15-20 (no comps of any kind at the casino).


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+1 to all of this.

For me, casino rake is 10% capped at $15 whereas home games are 10% capped at 10. This makes a BIG difference to your hourly.

Casino for me I also had to spend $40 on food last time which would be $0 at the home game since they feed us well. Ofc if you're putting in a lot of casino hours, you're better off bringing your own food.

I've found some home game lineups much harder than casino lineups at the same limit but both games still very very beatable.

Not having to wait on a waiting list for two hours is very +EV as well.

I can't think of one aspect about casino that is higher EV than home games. Most home games I go to run for between 8-16 hours so you're usually guaranteed pretty good volume.

My recommendation to any aspiring pros is to find and locate the best home games around you and put as much of your volume in there where possible. Especially if the rake is lower.

Meale, what's security like at these home games? Are you ever worried about getting rolled for your money? I feel like it wouldn't be a big issue but it's certainly come to mind.

I still feel like the players will almost never be as bad as the worst players at the casino. Drunk fish can't stagger over from roulette to spew chips, like in the casino haha but maybe they are just as spewy at your home games?


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Virtually non-existent. That said, I don't think there's much to worry about with the 2/3 or 2/5 games. One of the games I played at, I was told someone cashed out for 20k no worries lol. But obviously security is a risk - just very small and something I think you can pretty happily overlook. Probably just as much chance of getting rolled outside the casino at 3am after a big session. The home games are for most players a social thing played inside someone's house. The people who play are doing so for fun and everyone knows everyone - if ever there was an issue, everyone who played would know about it pretty quick, at least where I'm from. And IMO unless it's >50k amounts of money, I don't think it would be worth anyone's while. I've not played any of the high stakes home games but from what I hear, it's pretty much safe as houses. Pretty different to the big underground games in the US. Gun control is reassuring too lol.

Many times they'll be worse. Had a guy punt off over 5k in a 2/3 NLH game the other day. Too much money and the fact that drinks are free makes for really juicy game. Trick is to find the real easy games and play as much volume as you can there. One game I play(ed) in was full of semi-pros who actually knew how to play poker. Other games, the ones I frequent, are tables full of recs.

Can't do that at my casino where the waitlist is stupid, but yeah I see your point 4 sure.

Many of the home games I've been to have armed security. It's not exactly advertized. But I know some of the guys that run the games are carrying, and some of them have a buddy working the door.

I've heard of a few games around that have gotten rolled because they invited the wrong guy. For the most part that's very rare as most players are known regs with people vouching for them.

Yeah ofc, depends also where on earth you're playing. GTD not a single person in an AUS home game is packing lmao, but ofc different elsewhere.

Without knowing your history, 10bb/hr seems *very* ambitious. But it's good to have goals. Just don't be too devastated if you don't reach them.

I'm guessing closer to 30 hands an hour is more realistic.

100 hours a month is 1200 hours a year; I think there are some full timers who slack off those types of hours, so it seems like quite a lot for a "part-time" grinder.

The current rake in my 1/3 NL $300 max BI game is now $7 (+ $1 for the BBJ drop). I would consider that high. but my guess is that is moving towards the norm nowadays? Rake has a devastating affect on the smaller max BI games (and the higher it is the *much* more difficult a goal of 10bb/hr becomes).

GcluelessNLnoobG

I don't know if rake will go up, but I will say from a business perspective I see very little reason that it will ever go down.

Competition. One of the rooms in town recently reduced their rake and are advertising it to try to drive more traffic.

Obviously competition lol.

But there's often very little competition in most areas -- and even though, the majority of the poker community actually cares very little about rake. This is speculative of course, but a moderate rake increase in a "nicer" poker room could drive away small winners or b/e nits and make the game better overall for the rest of the player pool.

Either way, location and how well run or nice the casino/room is, is far more important to most recs as opposed to if its 3+1 or 5+1

I would like to know more about the home games Angrist patronizes in which he gets massages with happy endings.

Btw, this is the problem with the term home game. It can mean a game organized among friends or it can mean an illegal gambling operation. They are different IMO.

<insert bad beat joke here>

G/derailG

Hello gents, I recently started to play 1/3 live. Full time. So far I have about 202 hours logged on and im up about 4k.

My question is when should I shot take at 2/5? Currently my bankroll is 10k. Should I wait until I have about 500 hrs first in 1/3, 1000 hours? maybe. Or should I shot take 2 buy ins? Or should I wait until I have about 15k +?

I assume im on a heater tbh

Can you replenish from your life roll?
If so, then start shot taking any time the game looks good. 10k is plenty.

If not, it's probably still fine to take 100bb shots when the game looks good.
If you drop back to 7k or 8k then stop taking shots till you're back up again.

7k is 2300bb or 23 100bb buy ins, which is plenty to work with *if* you're a winning player.

This type of self reflection puts you in the 1% of poker pros so kudos on that.

It depends on "what" your roll is. It is your total life savings? Poker roll only separate from life? Other sources of income? Living expenses?

I started shot taking around $4k iirc and went on a substantial heater and never really looked back. That said, more recently I've had a 10bi downswing which honestly I wouldn't have really considered possible in live poker if it hadn't happened to me.

1/3 is a really profitable level, perhaps the best level in live poker wrt bb/hour. If bankroll=life roll I'd stay there until 15K. If not, yolo.

Shot take when you feel comfortable. I wouldn't take an arbitrary number from some internet guy as gospel.

Thanks for the comments guys. My 10k is a life roll. So I do believe I should play 1/3 until I have 3 months + advance for bills etc. and 15k for 2/5. If thats better than ill do it. I assume it is.

It's a small sample but your winrate is pretty low. I don't think I'd move up to 2/5 until you are able to beat the 1/3 at a better rate. You might be moving up into games you are -ev in.

Is $20/hr considered low at 1/3?


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When I was sunrunning out of the gate at 1/3 NL against a consistently lol lineup with an ok rake, I would have considered $20/hr (6.7 bb/hr) slightly disappointing.

Now against a more consistently solid lineup and with a suckier rake, I would snap accept that rate with no questions asked.

Gitreallydependsonthequalityofthegameyouplayin,imo G

At what rate are you beating 1/3?

At what rate did you beat 1/3? What do you currently beat your current games for over what sample?


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