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Old 01-30-2017, 08:08 PM   #17876
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Old 01-30-2017, 08:26 PM   #17877
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Old 01-30-2017, 08:29 PM   #17878
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Re: Live variance and goals

Just play and try to win as much as you can. What's the "bankroll challenge" for?

If you are winning 10BB/hr at 1/3, i doubt that would be your winrate for 5/5.
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Old 01-30-2017, 08:52 PM   #17879
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Re: Live variance and goals

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Originally Posted by Arabella505 View Post
I'm trying to write up a plan for my live poker bankroll challenge, looking for realistic numbers for the plan.
10BB/Hour at 1/3 2/5 5/5 seems like a achievable goal?
Is 20 hands/ hour reasonable at most live card rooms?
For a part-time grinder, is 100 hours a month somewhat achievable?
Standard Deviation compare to online games?
What's a high rake?
I think I'd focus on being disciplined in bringing your "A" game every time you play. Easier said than done. Review pots you played away from the table to see how you might have played better. When you play, pay attention to every hand that is played whether you are involved or not. Seems like you are are fairly new to the action live. Think about how other players played their hands when you are away from the table and identify mistakes they made. Focusing on making your game more solid is really more important than your stated goals. If you play well the money will come your way. Accomplishing the wherewithal to play well at poker and beat the games is a process.
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Old 01-30-2017, 08:55 PM   #17880
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Old 01-30-2017, 09:41 PM   #17881
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Re: Live variance and goals

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I think I'd focus on being disciplined in bringing your "A" game every time you play. Easier said than done. Review pots you played away from the table to see how you might have played better. When you play, pay attention to every hand that is played whether you are involved or not. Seems like you are are fairly new to the action live. Think about how other players played their hands when you are away from the table and identify mistakes they made. Focusing on making your game more solid is really more important than your stated goals. If you play well the money will come your way. Accomplishing the wherewithal to play well at poker and beat the games is a process.


I couldn't agree more with this. You'll pick up so much information by paying attention while you're out of a hand..

Also, be friendly, it's amazing how many people will show you their hands when they don't have to or explain their thought process.. All because you're friendly with them.


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Old 01-30-2017, 09:52 PM   #17882
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@angrist what are your thoughts on home games vs playing at the casino in terms of expected winrate? I've been invited to some private games that have a lot less rake, plus perks like food, massages, drinks etc but I'm not sure that the game will be soft enough to justify playing there.

Sorry if this is a little bit too off topic for this thread.
That's a great question. There are a lot of factors that go into it too. I'll try to keep it on topic.

I find home games to be much more hit-or-miss in terms of day to day consistency. Sometimes you've got a whale or two drunk off their ass and spewing chips (I know some guys that straddle $100). That's extremely profitable, moreso than if you ran into him in the casino where he can wander off to blackjack. Other nights only a few people show up and you might end up playing short handed with "decent" regs where everyone knows each other's tendencies well and there's no table to change to. This can be awful for your winrate depending on how the dynamic goes. Should still be able to beat it and have fun doing it though. On average it's probably about as soft as a casino, maybe a little softer. But this is going to depend a lot on who's on the invite list.

A lower rake at a home game should help your WR relative to the casino. Getting "free" drinks and food is hard to quantify in terms BB/hr, but if your casino charges for drinks and comps poorly then the home game should be better for your wallet (although you won't see it in your cash in/out results). One thing to watch out for is drinking too much and having it trash your ability to play.

A home game can also be closer and easier to get to, so you save time, gas, and maybe even get in hours you wouldn't otherwise be able to play. Of course this is dependent on how far away your casino is.

FYI the "massages" available at some home games are of the very fun but possibly very expensive kind. Can be -$EV and/or +lifeEV depending on if you're into that kind of thing.


Overall I think home games are more profitable than casino (or our local Michigan charity room) games. But the bigger gap between a good game and a bad game means you have to know when to either go home, or cash out and BS with people instead of playing.
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Old 01-30-2017, 09:59 PM   #17883
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That's a great question. There are a lot of factors that go into it too. I'll try to keep it on topic.



I find home games to be much more hit-or-miss in terms of day to day consistency. Sometimes you've got a whale or two drunk off their ass and spewing chips (I know some guys that straddle $100). That's extremely profitable, moreso than if you ran into him in the casino where he can wander off to blackjack. Other nights only a few people show up and you might end up playing short handed with "decent" regs where everyone knows each other's tendencies well and there's no table to change to. This can be awful for your winrate depending on how the dynamic goes. Should still be able to beat it and have fun doing it though. On average it's probably about as soft as a casino, maybe a little softer. But this is going to depend a lot on who's on the invite list.



A lower rake at a home game should help your WR relative to the casino. Getting "free" drinks and food is hard to quantify in terms BB/hr, but if your casino charges for drinks and comps poorly then the home game should be better for your wallet (although you won't see it in your cash in/out results). One thing to watch out for is drinking too much and having it trash your ability to play.



A home game can also be closer and easier to get to, so you save time, gas, and maybe even get in hours you wouldn't otherwise be able to play. Of course this is dependent on how far away your casino is.



FYI the "massages" available at some home games are of the very fun but possibly very expensive kind. Can be -$EV and/or +lifeEV depending on if you're into that kind of thing.





Overall I think home games are more profitable than casino (or our local Michigan charity room) games. But the bigger gap between a good game and a bad game means you have to know when to either go home, or cash out and BS with people instead of playing.


Thanks! It sounds like something worth trying out.. Particularly because I sometimes wait over an hour for a seat at the casino (need to be there in person to put my name down) and so it could be alright for my hourly if I can sit right down at a home game.

I wouldn't be interested in drinks but during longer sessions I usually buy food and that can be about $15-20 (no comps of any kind at the casino).


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Old 01-30-2017, 10:25 PM   #17884
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
That's a great question. There are a lot of factors that go into it too. I'll try to keep it on topic.

I find home games to be much more hit-or-miss in terms of day to day consistency. Sometimes you've got a whale or two drunk off their ass and spewing chips (I know some guys that straddle $100). That's extremely profitable, moreso than if you ran into him in the casino where he can wander off to blackjack. Other nights only a few people show up and you might end up playing short handed with "decent" regs where everyone knows each other's tendencies well and there's no table to change to. This can be awful for your winrate depending on how the dynamic goes. Should still be able to beat it and have fun doing it though. On average it's probably about as soft as a casino, maybe a little softer. But this is going to depend a lot on who's on the invite list.

A lower rake at a home game should help your WR relative to the casino. Getting "free" drinks and food is hard to quantify in terms BB/hr, but if your casino charges for drinks and comps poorly then the home game should be better for your wallet (although you won't see it in your cash in/out results). One thing to watch out for is drinking too much and having it trash your ability to play.

A home game can also be closer and easier to get to, so you save time, gas, and maybe even get in hours you wouldn't otherwise be able to play. Of course this is dependent on how far away your casino is.

FYI the "massages" available at some home games are of the very fun but possibly very expensive kind. Can be -$EV and/or +lifeEV depending on if you're into that kind of thing.


Overall I think home games are more profitable than casino (or our local Michigan charity room) games. But the bigger gap between a good game and a bad game means you have to know when to either go home, or cash out and BS with people instead of playing.
+1 to all of this.

For me, casino rake is 10% capped at $15 whereas home games are 10% capped at 10. This makes a BIG difference to your hourly.

Casino for me I also had to spend $40 on food last time which would be $0 at the home game since they feed us well. Ofc if you're putting in a lot of casino hours, you're better off bringing your own food.

I've found some home game lineups much harder than casino lineups at the same limit but both games still very very beatable.

Not having to wait on a waiting list for two hours is very +EV as well.

I can't think of one aspect about casino that is higher EV than home games. Most home games I go to run for between 8-16 hours so you're usually guaranteed pretty good volume.

My recommendation to any aspiring pros is to find and locate the best home games around you and put as much of your volume in there where possible. Especially if the rake is lower.
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Old 01-31-2017, 02:14 AM   #17885
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+1 to all of this.



For me, casino rake is 10% capped at $15 whereas home games are 10% capped at 10. This makes a BIG difference to your hourly.



Casino for me I also had to spend $40 on food last time which would be $0 at the home game since they feed us well. Ofc if you're putting in a lot of casino hours, you're better off bringing your own food.



I've found some home game lineups much harder than casino lineups at the same limit but both games still very very beatable.



Not having to wait on a waiting list for two hours is very +EV as well.



I can't think of one aspect about casino that is higher EV than home games. Most home games I go to run for between 8-16 hours so you're usually guaranteed pretty good volume.



My recommendation to any aspiring pros is to find and locate the best home games around you and put as much of your volume in there where possible. Especially if the rake is lower.


Meale, what's security like at these home games? Are you ever worried about getting rolled for your money? I feel like it wouldn't be a big issue but it's certainly come to mind.

I still feel like the players will almost never be as bad as the worst players at the casino. Drunk fish can't stagger over from roulette to spew chips, like in the casino haha but maybe they are just as spewy at your home games?


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Old 01-31-2017, 02:34 AM   #17886
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Meale, what's security like at these home games?
Virtually non-existent. That said, I don't think there's much to worry about with the 2/3 or 2/5 games. One of the games I played at, I was told someone cashed out for 20k no worries lol. But obviously security is a risk - just very small and something I think you can pretty happily overlook. Probably just as much chance of getting rolled outside the casino at 3am after a big session. The home games are for most players a social thing played inside someone's house. The people who play are doing so for fun and everyone knows everyone - if ever there was an issue, everyone who played would know about it pretty quick, at least where I'm from. And IMO unless it's >50k amounts of money, I don't think it would be worth anyone's while. I've not played any of the high stakes home games but from what I hear, it's pretty much safe as houses. Pretty different to the big underground games in the US. Gun control is reassuring too lol.
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Old 01-31-2017, 02:35 AM   #17887
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I still feel like the players will almost never be as bad as the worst players at the casino.
Many times they'll be worse. Had a guy punt off over 5k in a 2/3 NLH game the other day. Too much money and the fact that drinks are free makes for really juicy game. Trick is to find the real easy games and play as much volume as you can there. One game I play(ed) in was full of semi-pros who actually knew how to play poker. Other games, the ones I frequent, are tables full of recs.
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Old 01-31-2017, 02:36 AM   #17888
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Drunk fish can't stagger over from roulette to spew chips
Can't do that at my casino where the waitlist is stupid, but yeah I see your point 4 sure.
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Old 01-31-2017, 02:56 AM   #17889
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Many of the home games I've been to have armed security. It's not exactly advertized. But I know some of the guys that run the games are carrying, and some of them have a buddy working the door.

I've heard of a few games around that have gotten rolled because they invited the wrong guy. For the most part that's very rare as most players are known regs with people vouching for them.
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Old 01-31-2017, 03:06 AM   #17890
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Yeah ofc, depends also where on earth you're playing. GTD not a single person in an AUS home game is packing lmao, but ofc different elsewhere.
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Old 01-31-2017, 12:37 PM   #17891
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Re: Live variance and goals

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Originally Posted by Arabella505 View Post
I'm trying to write up a plan for my live poker bankroll challenge, looking for realistic numbers for the plan.
10BB/Hour at 1/3 2/5 5/5 seems like a achievable goal?
Is 20 hands/ hour reasonable at most live card rooms?
For a part-time grinder, is 100 hours a month somewhat achievable?
Standard Deviation compare to online games?
What's a high rake?
Without knowing your history, 10bb/hr seems *very* ambitious. But it's good to have goals. Just don't be too devastated if you don't reach them.

I'm guessing closer to 30 hands an hour is more realistic.

100 hours a month is 1200 hours a year; I think there are some full timers who slack off those types of hours, so it seems like quite a lot for a "part-time" grinder.

The current rake in my 1/3 NL $300 max BI game is now $7 (+ $1 for the BBJ drop). I would consider that high. but my guess is that is moving towards the norm nowadays? Rake has a devastating affect on the smaller max BI games (and the higher it is the *much* more difficult a goal of 10bb/hr becomes).

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 01-31-2017, 12:40 PM   #17892
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I don't know if rake will go up, but I will say from a business perspective I see very little reason that it will ever go down.
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Old 01-31-2017, 12:45 PM   #17893
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I don't know if rake will go up, but I will say from a business perspective I see very little reason that it will ever go down.
Competition. One of the rooms in town recently reduced their rake and are advertising it to try to drive more traffic.
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Old 01-31-2017, 12:54 PM   #17894
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Obviously competition lol.

But there's often very little competition in most areas -- and even though, the majority of the poker community actually cares very little about rake. This is speculative of course, but a moderate rake increase in a "nicer" poker room could drive away small winners or b/e nits and make the game better overall for the rest of the player pool.

Either way, location and how well run or nice the casino/room is, is far more important to most recs as opposed to if its 3+1 or 5+1
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Old 01-31-2017, 02:21 PM   #17895
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I would like to know more about the home games Angrist patronizes in which he gets massages with happy endings.

Btw, this is the problem with the term home game. It can mean a game organized among friends or it can mean an illegal gambling operation. They are different IMO.
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Old 01-31-2017, 02:46 PM   #17896
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I would like to know more about the home games Angrist patronizes in which he gets massages with happy endings.
<insert bad beat joke here>

G/derailG
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Old 01-31-2017, 04:27 PM   #17897
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Hello gents, I recently started to play 1/3 live. Full time. So far I have about 202 hours logged on and im up about 4k.

My question is when should I shot take at 2/5? Currently my bankroll is 10k. Should I wait until I have about 500 hrs first in 1/3, 1000 hours? maybe. Or should I shot take 2 buy ins? Or should I wait until I have about 15k +?

I assume im on a heater tbh
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Old 01-31-2017, 04:41 PM   #17898
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Can you replenish from your life roll?
If so, then start shot taking any time the game looks good. 10k is plenty.

If not, it's probably still fine to take 100bb shots when the game looks good.
If you drop back to 7k or 8k then stop taking shots till you're back up again.

7k is 2300bb or 23 100bb buy ins, which is plenty to work with *if* you're a winning player.

Spoiler:
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Old 01-31-2017, 04:44 PM   #17899
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I assume im on a heater tbh
This type of self reflection puts you in the 1% of poker pros so kudos on that.

It depends on "what" your roll is. It is your total life savings? Poker roll only separate from life? Other sources of income? Living expenses?

I started shot taking around $4k iirc and went on a substantial heater and never really looked back. That said, more recently I've had a 10bi downswing which honestly I wouldn't have really considered possible in live poker if it hadn't happened to me.

1/3 is a really profitable level, perhaps the best level in live poker wrt bb/hour. If bankroll=life roll I'd stay there until 15K. If not, yolo.
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Old 01-31-2017, 04:48 PM   #17900
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Hello gents, I recently started to play 1/3 live. Full time. So far I have about 202 hours logged on and im up about 4k.

My question is when should I shot take at 2/5? Currently my bankroll is 10k. Should I wait until I have about 500 hrs first in 1/3, 1000 hours? maybe. Or should I shot take 2 buy ins? Or should I wait until I have about 15k +?

I assume im on a heater tbh
Shot take when you feel comfortable. I wouldn't take an arbitrary number from some internet guy as gospel.
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