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Old 01-23-2017, 09:41 PM   #17826
Avaritia
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think it's pretty well accepted that PLO has a higher hourly but it is true that the variance is surreal and even those who talk about variance all the time really underestimate it. I mean you get 14-18 hands/hour in live PLO, that is insane. That is the only reason I do not play it more, even though I love it and people are horrible.

The average pot in PLO is substantially larger than in NL. Considering stack sizes, 1/2 or 1/3 PLO often look like a good 2/5, and every now and then look like a decent 5/10.

There is a lot to know about PLO, everyone thinks that people stack off with non nut flushes in PLO and that's what makes it good. 1) that's not entirely true and 2) that's not what makes it good. PLO is a very complex game and wrt live it will never come anywhere close to NL in terms of the average player knowledge about the game.

You get 6 NL starting hands, what's not to love
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Old 01-23-2017, 09:50 PM   #17827
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
I think it's pretty well accepted that PLO has a higher hourly but it is true that the variance is surreal and even those who talk about variance all the time really underestimate it. I mean you get 14-18 hands/hour in live PLO, that is insane. That is the only reason I do not play it more, even though I love it and people are horrible.

The average pot in PLO is substantially larger than in NL. Considering stack sizes, 1/2 or 1/3 PLO often look like a good 2/5, and every now and then look like a decent 5/10.

There is a lot to know about PLO, everyone thinks that people stack off with non nut flushes in PLO and that's what makes it good. 1) that's not entirely true and 2) that's not what makes it good. PLO is a very complex game and wrt live it will never come anywhere close to NL in terms of the average player knowledge about the game.

You get 6 NL starting hands, what's not to love
I'm not entirely convinced the increased PLO hourly offsets the increased variance though I've done no maths on it
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Old 01-23-2017, 09:55 PM   #17828
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if you are playing your normal poker game you should have 4 buyins per stake to lose per session and you should plan on losing 3-4 sessions in a row fairly often. If you can't stomach losing $5k then you're not rolled for 2/5. If you cant handle losing $3500 you're not rolled for 1/3 and if you can't lose $2k then dont play 1/2. all of the above swings are normal and happen regularly to winning players. I know a few 10bbhr winners and they all have had around 10buyin downswings. Be prepared and dont be upset when you lose $5k; its normal
I've never dropped 2k playing 1/2... what kind of 1/2 games are you playing? I'm talking live of course. I've been playing in casinos for a few years now and I've never dropped anything like that at 1/2. I think Jonathan Little agrees with me.
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Old 01-23-2017, 10:00 PM   #17829
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post

The average pot in PLO is substantially larger than in NL. Considering stack sizes, 1/2 or 1/3 PLO often look like a good 2/5, and every now and then look like a decent 5/10.
Very much yes. Which means we should be comparing $1/2 PLO winrates to $2/5 NL winrates.

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
There is a lot to know about PLO, everyone thinks that people stack off with non nut flushes in PLO and that's what makes it good. 1) that's not entirely true and 2) that's not what makes it good. PLO is a very complex game and wrt live it will never come anywhere close to NL in terms of the average player knowledge about the game.
1) Very, very much agreed. Even the worst PLO players I know learn this quickly. Doesn't stop them from drawing to it as part of another hand.

2) The table talk around PLO strategy is even more awful than NLHE. I heard a couple of guys discussing why there were no PLO books and how hard the game was, and they were bouncing around player names trying to figure out if anyone had written one. I wasn't going to tell guys too dumb to google "PLO book" the name "Hwang".

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You get 6 NL starting hands, what's not to love
Wait, then why do I only get dealt 1 badugi hand when I play PLO?
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Old 01-23-2017, 10:30 PM   #17830
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Last WPT I went too I was lucky enough to have a conversation with Anthony Zinno. In my circle regularly I have friends who play high rollers and I do alright, but this is a guy who got world poty. He disagreed that you have a bigger edge in plo (he won the 25k plo wsop). He laid it out quite well and it's stuck with me.
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Old 01-24-2017, 04:41 AM   #17831
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I've never tracked a whole lot in live poker, it's relatively unnecessary. Sample sizes are just too small and often player's game is changing too much for it to be relevant. I think a lot of you tracking is overkill. Your win-rate would probably go up if you didn't spend so much time on it.

PLO gets a rep for you having a bigger edge than HE vs fish. It can be very true, but it can just as be wrong. In HE you get in more 80/20 and in PLO more 60/40.

The edge comes from the average level of PLO players are steps behind the average skill in HE. The AVG reg in PLO has huge fundamental leaks.

I am winning a lot more per hour in my PLO game, but in order for you to do that, you need a softer field than your AVG HE table, hopefully it plays deep and your rake is not higher than HE. In most places PLO is raked higher.
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Old 01-24-2017, 10:29 AM   #17832
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1/03 3:39 +30bb
1/06 3:05 +200bb
1/08 5:08 0bb
1/12 5:17 -55bb
1/15 3:34 +100bb
1/16 4:16 +19bb
1/17 3:29 +71bb
1/23 1:48 +103bb

15.5bb/hr
total 30 hours
+468bb

Just getting back into playing after not playing for a few years. Small sample I know, but happy to start off on the right foot. Haven't been playing too aggressively. Typically playing after work, the shorter sessions tend to work better for me. Start to lose my focus at the 3 hour mark
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Old 01-24-2017, 12:15 PM   #17833
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I bet I know villains hand on 80% of all in hands and only have to estimate on 20% or so.
Very impressive
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Old 01-24-2017, 12:49 PM   #17834
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foldandclose View Post
1/03 3:39 +30bb
1/06 3:05 +200bb
1/08 5:08 0bb
1/12 5:17 -55bb
1/15 3:34 +100bb
1/16 4:16 +19bb
1/17 3:29 +71bb
1/23 1:48 +103bb

15.5bb/hr
total 30 hours
+468bb

Just getting back into playing after not playing for a few years. Small sample I know, but happy to start off on the right foot. Haven't been playing too aggressively. Typically playing after work, the shorter sessions tend to work better for me. Start to lose my focus at the 3 hour mark
Very nicely done! I suppose I'll share my most recent week or so.

1.13 6:45 +150BB
1.17 3:50 +182.5BB
1.19 5:30 +25BB
1.20 6:30 -10BB
1.23 2:45 +50BB
1.23 3:55 +55BB (2/5 - all others were 1/2)

29:15
+452.5BB
15.47BB/hour
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Old 01-24-2017, 01:03 PM   #17835
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The discussion of AIEV has been purged from the thread.
If anyone doesn't like it, tough.

You are allowed to disagree, but not not in the win-rate thread.

Some of the comments that were posted with regard to it previously could have resulted in a ban from the winrate thread, so instead I've removed them and banned no one. Seems fair.
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Old 01-24-2017, 02:04 PM   #17836
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Are there any discussions of the impact of rake that can be linked to? My local has a $8/hand (10%+bbj drop) which seems insane for a 1/2 game
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Old 01-24-2017, 02:41 PM   #17837
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Originally Posted by StructureK View Post
Are there any discussions of the impact of rake that can be linked to? My local has a $8/hand (10%+bbj drop) which seems insane for a 1/2 game
It comes up here occasionally in regard to winrate, but the primary discussion is over at: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/27...hread-1045503/
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Old 01-24-2017, 03:14 PM   #17838
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
I think it's pretty well accepted that PLO has a higher hourly but it is true that the variance is surreal and even those who talk about variance all the time really underestimate it. I mean you get 14-18 hands/hour in live PLO, that is insane. That is the only reason I do not play it more, even though I love it and people are horrible.


It's interesting that your winrate (in terms of bb/hand) would need to be double that of a NL winrate in order to achieve the same hourly because you're getting about half the hands.

Not saying it isn't possible to more than double a NL w/r at the same stake PLO, just interesting to me.
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Old 01-24-2017, 03:32 PM   #17839
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Originally Posted by andees10 View Post
It's interesting that your winrate (in terms of bb/hand) would need to be double that of a NL winrate in order to achieve the same hourly because you're getting about half the hands.

Not saying it isn't possible to more than double a NL w/r at the same stake PLO, just interesting to me.
Well, PLO generally tends to play bigger than NL for the same blind structure (yea, I know it's weird) and has deeper stacks. A $1/2 PLO usually has a $5 bring in, and stacks around $500-600 (or deeper).
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Old 01-24-2017, 08:10 PM   #17840
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Originally Posted by StructureK View Post
Are there any discussions of the impact of rake that can be linked to? My local has a $8/hand (10%+bbj drop) which seems insane for a 1/2 game
Where is this highway robbery at?
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Old 01-24-2017, 08:26 PM   #17841
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Originally Posted by StructureK View Post
Are there any discussions of the impact of rake that can be linked to? My local has a $8/hand (10%+bbj drop) which seems insane for a 1/2 game
Every room in S. Florida rakes $5 +$2 even at 1/2 for $7 max. I wouldnt say $8 is insane.
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Old 01-24-2017, 10:07 PM   #17842
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Well, PLO generally tends to play bigger than NL for the same blind structure (yea, I know it's weird) and has deeper stacks. A $1/2 PLO usually has a $5 bring in, and stacks around $500-600 (or deeper).

I'm truly interested in this as I've dabbled in PLO. I've also read both of Jeff Huang's books. And as I've dialed back my live hours the past year or so I've considered whether I should make an effort to play more PLO.

Mods if broaching the subject of PLO winrates is out of bounds let me know but I'm interested in the context of a NL players WR....

But Yeah as for the quoted I mean 1/2+5 bringin at my casino when it runs is 500 cap (occasionally a deep 1k cap). Comparing that to standard 1/2 300 cap isn't really equivalent blind structure IMO.

They sometimes run 1/2 no bringin. I'm not sure even the buy in cap for that as I've never played but that game plays maybe half as big from my casual observation.

I think a fair comparison might be 2/5 or 1/3 500 cap NL to the 1/2+5 500 cap PLO from my experience in my room.

The true comparison I suppose would be whatever NL stake one is reasonably bankrolled for vs a PLO game they are bankrolled for with a similar risk of ruin.

And the size of the bb probably is only one variable as important as that is. BI cap, bring ins not to mention straddles, rocks etc and how well rolled opponents are is going to drive how big the game plays.

So I guess that's really what I'm getting at. Is the low hanging fruit in live PLO such that a "similarly sized" (loosely interpret as needed) PLO game going to generate a bigger hourly for a solid PLO player given the reduction in hands/hr. ?
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Old 01-24-2017, 10:50 PM   #17843
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Originally Posted by cAmmAndo View Post
I'm truly interested in this as I've dabbled in PLO. I've also read both of Jeff Huang's books. And as I've dialed back my live hours the past year or so I've considered whether I should make an effort to play more PLO.

Mods if broaching the subject of PLO winrates is out of bounds let me know but I'm interested in the context of a NL players WR....

But Yeah as for the quoted I mean 1/2+5 bringin at my casino when it runs is 500 cap (occasionally a deep 1k cap). Comparing that to standard 1/2 300 cap isn't really equivalent blind structure IMO.

They sometimes run 1/2 no bringin. I'm not sure even the buy in cap for that as I've never played but that game plays maybe half as big from my casual observation.

I think a fair comparison might be 2/5 or 1/3 500 cap NL to the 1/2+5 500 cap PLO from my experience in my room.

The true comparison I suppose would be whatever NL stake one is reasonably bankrolled for vs a PLO game they are bankrolled for with a similar risk of ruin.

And the size of the bb probably is only one variable as important as that is. BI cap, bring ins not to mention straddles, rocks etc and how well rolled opponents are is going to drive how big the game plays.

So I guess that's really what I'm getting at. Is the low hanging fruit in live PLO such that a "similarly sized" (loosely interpret as needed) PLO game going to generate a bigger hourly for a solid PLO player given the reduction in hands/hr. ?


Fwiw my 2/2 PLO Winrate is materially higher than my 2/5 Winrate since MDL opened with about 2k hours total. Prob 1200 ish nlhe rest PLO. Not a big sample but still a thing I suppose.

Std as you may imagine is significantly higher too




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Old 01-25-2017, 12:04 AM   #17844
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Originally Posted by andees10 View Post
It's interesting that your winrate (in terms of bb/hand) would need to be double that of a NL winrate
Right? I thought about this too and honestly the hand/hour is the only thing keeping me from solo plo. 1 because of the winrate thing but 2 bc HOLY SH*T 14 hands/hour

*I realize that in those 14 hands there is significantly more action that in 30 NL hands, but again, HOLY SH*T 14 hands per hour

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69 View Post
Fwiw my 2/2 PLO Winrate is materially higher than my 2/5 Winrate since MDL opened with about 2k hours total. Prob 1200 ish nlhe rest PLO. Not a big sample but still a thing I suppose.
That is interesting. Stupid question but how does 2/2 work, is there a 5 bring in?

Do they have dedicated plo dealers?

Do you coach bruh?
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Old 01-25-2017, 01:16 AM   #17845
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164 hour update.

I think keeping track of sessions is making me obsessed with my win rate going up or down. It's probably low self esteem and being conditioned to attach self worth to a number. I dont think its healthy.

I've made some very memorable bad plays these last few days. Still up a good number and seemingly crushing the game but quite disappointed in spewing off like 700 bbs over a few hands.

All 3-5 unless noted.

1-16 8h19m +3757
1-16 55m -542 (5/5/10 plo)
1-17 11h44m +1985
1-18 9h50m +1391
1-20 13h14m +212
1-21 14h37m +2200
1-23 13m -127 (plo)
1-23 11h46m +1822

Having a good month overall
+28899 in 164h12m33s

I'm phasing poker out of my life again. Over the last few months I've been able to pay off about 30k in credit cards, give my parents a few gs each, and save up a bunch of cash.I'm very grateful for poker and at the same time it's not a long term thing for me. Poker can be depressing. There's no value added to society. Poker tables are filled with some of the slimiest people in town. People don't want other people to be happy. Too much small mindedness and gossip and backstabbing. Too much jealousy and meanness. Too few genuine smiles.

I'll probably play a few more sessions over the next couple weeks and then call it quits for a while. Going to live a peaceful simple life in Guatemala for a while. Meditate do yoga live by the lake spend some time in retreat.

Thanks for listening guys. I'm sorry if I come off pessimistic or jaded or cynical but the people who have played for a living im certain can relate to parts of what I'm feeling. And thank you for all the discussion and strategy help. It's definitely improved my game tremendously.
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Old 01-25-2017, 02:25 AM   #17846
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spirit123 View Post
164 hour update.

I think keeping track of sessions is making me obsessed with my win rate going up or down. It's probably low self esteem and being conditioned to attach self worth to a number. I dont think its healthy.

I've made some very memorable bad plays these last few days. Still up a good number and seemingly crushing the game but quite disappointed in spewing off like 700 bbs over a few hands.

All 3-5 unless noted.

1-16 8h19m +3757
1-16 55m -542 (5/5/10 plo)
1-17 11h44m +1985
1-18 9h50m +1391
1-20 13h14m +212
1-21 14h37m +2200
1-23 13m -127 (plo)
1-23 11h46m +1822

Having a good month overall
+28899 in 164h12m33s

I'm phasing poker out of my life again. Over the last few months I've been able to pay off about 30k in credit cards, give my parents a few gs each, and save up a bunch of cash.I'm very grateful for poker and at the same time it's not a long term thing for me. Poker can be depressing. There's no value added to society. Poker tables are filled with some of the slimiest people in town. People don't want other people to be happy. Too much small mindedness and gossip and backstabbing. Too much jealousy and meanness. Too few genuine smiles.

I'll probably play a few more sessions over the next couple weeks and then call it quits for a while. Going to live a peaceful simple life in Guatemala for a while. Meditate do yoga live by the lake spend some time in retreat.

Thanks for listening guys. I'm sorry if I come off pessimistic or jaded or cynical but the people who have played for a living im certain can relate to parts of what I'm feeling. And thank you for all the discussion and strategy help. It's definitely improved my game tremendously.
That's a really killer month. If I won half of that in a full-time month I'd be ecstatic. I'm curious what your SD is.

I've been playing as my source of income for about a year. Thankfully I don't relate to any of that stuff at all. Poker has never felt depressing. The people I play with are generally friendly and definitely not "slimy." No idea what "small mindedness, gossip and backstabbing" refers to. I don't care that it "adds nothing to society." I can do that in my free time if I choose to.

Really the only big negative with poker for me is that the swings are kind of stressful.
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Old 01-25-2017, 02:56 AM   #17847
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That's a really killer month. If I won half of that in a full-time month I'd be ecstatic. I'm curious what your SD is.

I've been playing as my source of income for about a year. Thankfully I don't relate to any of that stuff at all. Poker has never felt depressing. The people I play with are generally friendly and definitely not "slimy." No idea what "small mindedness, gossip and backstabbing" refers to. I don't care that it "adds nothing to society." I can do that in my free time if I choose to.

Really the only big negative with poker for me is that the swings are kind of stressful.
Yeah, the cash is nice. No idea about std. It's probably on the lower end, I don't make too many big bluffs anymore. I do play draws strongly though and put lots of pressure on people. I've been bluff raising rivers more often vs people who fold too often and a scare card comes out. It's amazing how often people fold. But I think I'm General my game has become lower variance except for the few times a month where I spew like a dummy.

As to the other stuff: maybe I've played a bit too much but poker isn't so fun for me any more. Winning is super standard and doesn't raise my happiness levels much. Losing sucks still and even though i don't experience losing too much any more it still affects my ability to be friendly with people and in general exude joy.

Recently I've been having to pep talk myself into going to the casino. Casinos are not the most pleasant places to be. Lots of degenerates (probably myself included to some extent). It's just a sad place to be most of the time. It's the same story all the time. The same type of gossip. The same type of talk about bad beats and wishing for a jackpot. I feel this inner tightness often when the thought of sitting at the table for hours arises. The body knows when something is not the best for itself.

Being known as the biggest winner in the game has its pros and cons. The dealers and floor all love me bc I'm very kind to them and always help keep the game moving fast. But some of the other regs just avoid me in general and seem unhappy when I'm at the table. It's not the best feeling to know people are running away from me. I want people to like me and be friendly. I want to be someone who others want to be around.

Slimy comes is different forms. Gossiping, talking bad about others, angle shooting, smoking cigarettes every 30 minutes and coming back reeking, bad hygeine, needling, making people feel bad, celebrating winning pots, slowrolling, making others show a losing hand after someone says good call or you win. All these things I consider not pleasant to be around. It's mostly smallmindedness as in selfish and mean.

As to adding benefit to society, maybe I mean more it doesn't bring anybody true joy. It doesn't lead to better health, happier humans, better families. I notice it in myself. Winning no longer makes me happy. I always look back at the wrong decisions I made and am hard on myself for it. We don't need more hardness and hard human beings. Softness and easy goingness is where true happiness lies. For me poker makes me neither soft not easy going.
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Old 01-25-2017, 02:15 PM   #17848
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Right? I thought about this too and honestly the hand/hour is the only thing keeping me from solo plo. 1 because of the winrate thing but 2 bc HOLY SH*T 14 hands/hour



*I realize that in those 14 hands there is significantly more action that in 30 NL hands, but again, HOLY SH*T 14 hands per hour







That is interesting. Stupid question but how does 2/2 work, is there a 5 bring in?



Do they have dedicated plo dealers?



Do you coach bruh?

Everyone is a coach now bra. No bring in but at least 50% of the time there is a $5 straddle on. In that case the full pot open is 19 obv. Some dealers will just let it be 20. Min buyin is 100; Max 500. At any given time there is prob 7-8k on table with a few OMC just nut peddling their dwindling stacks

Dealers are generally good. There are usually at least 3 PLO games going (2 2/2 and 1 5/5) often with more of those and weekend 10/25.



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Old 01-25-2017, 02:30 PM   #17849
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Quote:
Yeah, the cash is nice. No idea about std. It's probably on the lower end, I don't make too many big bluffs anymore. I do play draws strongly though and put lots of pressure on people. I've been bluff raising rivers more often vs people who fold too often and a scare card comes out. It's amazing how often people fold. But I think I'm General my game has become lower variance except for the few times a month where I spew like a dummy.

As to the other stuff: maybe I've played a bit too much but poker isn't so fun for me any more. Winning is super standard and doesn't raise my happiness levels much. Losing sucks still and even though i don't experience losing too much any more it still affects my ability to be friendly with people and in general exude joy.

Recently I've been having to pep talk myself into going to the casino. Casinos are not the most pleasant places to be. Lots of degenerates (probably myself included to some extent). It's just a sad place to be most of the time. It's the same story all the time. The same type of gossip. The same type of talk about bad beats and wishing for a jackpot. I feel this inner tightness often when the thought of sitting at the table for hours arises. The body knows when something is not the best for itself.

Being known as the biggest winner in the game has its pros and cons. The dealers and floor all love me bc I'm very kind to them and always help keep the game moving fast. But some of the other regs just avoid me in general and seem unhappy when I'm at the table. It's not the best feeling to know people are running away from me. I want people to like me and be friendly. I want to be someone who others want to be around.

Slimy comes is different forms. Gossiping, talking bad about others, angle shooting, smoking cigarettes every 30 minutes and coming back reeking, bad hygeine, needling, making people feel bad, celebrating winning pots, slowrolling, making others show a losing hand after someone says good call or you win. All these things I consider not pleasant to be around. It's mostly smallmindedness as in selfish and mean.

As to adding benefit to society, maybe I mean more it doesn't bring anybody true joy. It doesn't lead to better health, happier humans, better families. I notice it in myself. Winning no longer makes me happy. I always look back at the wrong decisions I made and am hard on myself for it. We don't need more hardness and hard human beings. Softness and easy goingness is where true happiness lies. For me poker makes me neither soft not easy going.
Hard to respond as I wish without risking a temp ban for straying off topic too much. All I'll say is, you seem very young and inexperienced in the game of life. You will experience much of what you are describing no matter how you choose to make a living.

You want fries with that? I'll do a deep dive and circle back.
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Old 01-25-2017, 02:42 PM   #17850
Avaritia
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

FWIW I agree alot with what he says and to keep it to winrates, I'd say it has alot to do with area and room.

I'd play poker as a breakeven player recreationally in Daytona. I'd need to make $300 an hour to play in Hialeah.

You just run into different groups and different types of people in different places, and while some places are casual and fun, many are scummy. In my experience.

I have actually sacrificed wr to play in rooms I prefer (but theorethically maybe not bc I'm not on tilt or I'm safer in the parking lot etc.)
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