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Old 01-23-2017, 11:13 AM   #17801
Dochrohan
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Nice recovery.
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Old 01-23-2017, 11:33 AM   #17802
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
That's looks like about -$7000 over 250 hrs or so? 35 buy ins? WOW!
Looks closer to $6500 in 110 hours to me. What a nightmare of a downswing if this is 1|2! And still not out of it yet. 100 hours to lose $6500, 500 to get it back hehe.
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Old 01-23-2017, 11:34 AM   #17803
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Originally Posted by homerdash View Post
hey znith, I was in the same position for several months last year (job, saved most of 1/2 winnings and had $5k+ in cash bankroll after several hundred hours of 10bb+/hr profit)

I decided to do the opposite of you and never shot take, I had $10k roll as a target for getting into 2/5. Guess where on the below graph my biggest regret is not giving it a shot?

Anyways, play good 2/5 games and see what happens because the abyss still exists at 1/2

Just to confirm the session to session variability discussion, the width of your light blue line looks to be about $1-2k.I've seen this in my graphs, and others around here too.
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Old 01-23-2017, 12:43 PM   #17804
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Hi guys,
What does a 69 bb/100 mean in standard deviation? I sW it on my poker tracker software and I know my sample size is small but just curious what it means! Thanks!!
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Old 01-23-2017, 02:04 PM   #17805
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Hi guys,
What does a 69 bb/100 mean in standard deviation? I sW it on my poker tracker software and I know my sample size is small but just curious what it means! Thanks!!
It means variance for you is rather low. GL replicating this in LLSNl though. :/
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Old 01-23-2017, 02:19 PM   #17806
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Originally Posted by znith View Post
Yeah, no difference since the shot take. I'm up about $80 for the month now, looking at my records to be exact - I am:

+$1250 at 2/5 (26 hours)
-1170 at 1/2 (14 hours)

Had a really bad session at 1/2 where i tilted off $600, so I think that is sticking in my head right now affecting my confidence.
The hours sample size is, of course, meaningless.

However, if you are still capable of tilting off $600 in a 1/2 NL game then I probably wouldn't move up until I had that major leak under control.

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Old 01-23-2017, 02:23 PM   #17807
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The first downswing you experience after you move up stakes is always the worst.

I remember having to shot take 4x before I could move up. Then I finally ran so good during a shot take, by the end I was already shot taking the next stake.
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Old 01-23-2017, 03:06 PM   #17808
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I never actually looked at stats from peak to trough but here you go. 1/2 and some 1/3 in Vegas and Horseshoe

edit: it's a period of 5/18/16-6/18/16 which includes a week in Vegas



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Old 01-23-2017, 03:17 PM   #17809
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if you know $5k swings are going to happen what kinda BR do you think works best? $8k? $10k?
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Old 01-23-2017, 04:04 PM   #17810
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So very similar to a long term hold on a dividend paying stock. (?) So if you decided one day that you're comfortable sticking to 5/10 but you're over rolled by 25k and pay yourself that 25k you would now be expected to tell Uncle Sam about it. Would it be best to tell him about 100% of this income or foolish to tell him about him about 100% of your untraceable income?

Also, will this only work if you claim yourself as a professional gambler? Surely the government won't care if you made 30k one year playing poker but claimed you reinvested 20k back into yourself?

Ps. I'm a tax noob and thank you for your time.
I know **** all about US tax laws, and know even less how they pertain to poker as a business/source of income.

Sorry I can't be of much help there.
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Old 01-23-2017, 04:13 PM   #17811
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So very similar to a long term hold on a dividend paying stock. (?) So if you decided one day that you're comfortable sticking to 5/10 but you're over rolled by 25k and pay yourself that 25k you would now be expected to tell Uncle Sam about it. Would it be best to tell him about 100% of this income or foolish to tell him about him about 100% of your untraceable income?

Also, will this only work if you claim yourself as a professional gambler? Surely the government won't care if you made 30k one year playing poker but claimed you reinvested 20k back into yourself?

Ps. I'm a tax noob and thank you for your time.


I'm not sure what's happening here but this isn't how tax works at all. Income is taxable when earned whether you keep it in cash, chips or deposit in the bank. Obviously if you deposit it in your account there is now a record of it but if you are following the law you should be paying tax whether you deposit the winnings or not


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Old 01-23-2017, 04:33 PM   #17812
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Originally Posted by homerdash View Post
I never actually looked at stats from peak to trough but here you go. 1/2 and some 1/3 in Vegas and Horseshoe

edit: it's a period of 5/18/16-6/18/16 which includes a week in Vegas



Yikes, that's like a 17-26 BI downswing, gross!

GwouldbeleakingmentallyallovertheplaceG
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Old 01-23-2017, 04:34 PM   #17813
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Originally Posted by Dochrohan View Post
The first downswing you experience after you move up stakes is always the worst.

I remember having to shot take 4x before I could move up. Then I finally ran so good during a shot take, by the end I was already shot taking the next stake.
Very similar to my experience as well
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Old 01-23-2017, 05:17 PM   #17814
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if you know $5k swings are going to happen what kinda BR do you think works best? $8k? $10k?
10k at bare minimum. I prefer to have around 40 BIs but i also do this to pay the bills and I would imagine my STD is very high (I've never calculated it though).

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Old 01-23-2017, 06:20 PM   #17815
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^ how many hands does that encompass?
Approx 64000
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Old 01-23-2017, 06:32 PM   #17816
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I play PLO and ran mid five figures under AIEV last year, just be happy it's holdem where you genuinely are a ~70/30+ favorite when all in and the pots are smaller/less frequent.
I also assume jonny is asking for how many all in hands, not total number of hands.
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Old 01-23-2017, 06:39 PM   #17817
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I play PLO and ran mid five figures under AIEV last year, just be happy it's holdem where you genuinely are a ~70/30+ favorite when all in and the pots are smaller/less frequent.
I also assume jonny is asking for how many all in hands, not total number of hands.
I don't think I could even play PLO just for that reason. The variance should even out quicker since there so many all in hands, but if you run bad you could run REALLY bad in PLO.

No idea how many all in hands it is in total. If I were to take a guess I would say its somewhere in the neighborhood of 400-500? Somewhere around once every 4-5 hrs. I played 2 today. I was 55% and 91% and lost both. Its rare to get 2 big ones in one session for me though. If I have more than 1 or 2 per session they are normally vs short stacks. I still count them but they don't have much effect overall.
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Old 01-23-2017, 06:51 PM   #17818
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Live PLO doesn't really ever even out. The variance is too big, I don't think I could even it out in 10 years of volume. When I was playing home games of the same size I ran it 3-4x every time I could to realize my equity. In capped games, often the PLO game after 4-5 hours could have 4000bb+ on the table. The game gets big. In a 1/3 PLO game being in for 2k+ isn't rare at all, whereas in 1/3 holdem it would be nuts.
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Old 01-23-2017, 06:58 PM   #17819
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Live PLO doesn't really ever even out. The variance is too big, I don't think I could even it out in 10 years of volume. When I was playing home games of the same size I ran it 3-4x every time I could to realize my equity. In capped games, often the PLO game after 4-5 hours could have 4000bb+ on the table. The game gets big. In a 1/3 PLO game being in for 2k+ isn't rare at all, whereas in 1/3 holdem it would be nuts.
Yeah, I believe you. I just started playing small stakes PLO online because Im close to clueless about the game, but I really dont think Ill ever play it live. The games are just too crazy
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Old 01-23-2017, 07:14 PM   #17820
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Homer it looks way better like this...



cAproblemsolvedAm
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Old 01-23-2017, 07:15 PM   #17821
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Nits itt. PLO is life
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Old 01-23-2017, 07:41 PM   #17822
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Nits itt. PLO is life
yeah so much this. play super over rolled and for stakes small enough that running bad for a really really long time won't bother you that much and then just fire away. i'm probably just a degen though.. i mean i'd rather get into a bunch of large 55/45 and 60/40 spots during a session than sit around for a few hours at nlhe and get into maybe 1 all in spot. kinda off topic but targeting any sports apparel wearing person at the table for another .5-1BI 55/45 spot is pretty sweet too.
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Old 01-23-2017, 08:25 PM   #17823
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A very good PLO player will have a higher winrate in their game compared to a very good NLH player too since people in PLO make many more mistakes.
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Old 01-23-2017, 09:03 PM   #17824
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I wish I was rolled and had the time to become good at PLO.

Mike- I don't see the utility in calculating those AIEV's. it seems to me it's just fixating on something that doesn't really matter. You can't change it, and it is just makes it easier to feel sorry for yourself. I'll do quick math on my drive home sometimes while it's still fresh but I think it's probably detrimental to keep records of it. At best it's taking time away from studying math that actually helps.
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Old 01-23-2017, 09:24 PM   #17825
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A very good PLO player will have a higher winrate in their game compared to a very good NLH player too since people in PLO make many more mistakes.

Curious anyone have legit samples (prolly need 2k hours in guessing) demonstrating higher hourly in PLO v's NL of same stakes?

Not that I don't believe the reasoning but preflop or otherwise, equities do run closer and in my admittedly limited PLO experience it seems hands/hr is significantly reduced also.

And yes I fully get the distinction made re: AIE and the likelihood of poor players making more mistakes in large pots.
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