Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-22-2017, 09:18 AM   #17776
Risky
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 82
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If one is a semi-pro player with a 20 hour a week tax paying job is it foolish to claim 100% of poker winnings during tax season? Can you claim all of your recorded losing sessions just like lost investments in the market or other places?
Risky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2017, 10:43 AM   #17777
MIB211
veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,011
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot View Post
Do you deduct gas, tolls, parking, food from your winrate?
Not unless paid from my stack which sometimes happens for food.

Anyway babysitter was $100 and I made almost $2k so it's a bit academic now.
MIB211 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2017, 11:17 AM   #17778
Hardball47
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: BET FLOP
Posts: 12,935
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Expenses are a column that you deduct from your actual winnings. Win rate is a statistic that approximately determines your hourly earnings. Expenses are not something you deduct from your win rate. That makes no logical, statistical or accounting sense.

Some full time players determine their estimated win rate over a large sample with a good confidence interval and then pay themselves out of their bankroll for hours played, regardless of win/loss or the amount. For example, you had a killer 2/5 session and raped the table for 10+ buyins and your hourly is estimated to be at $25/hour (probably conservative, but likely more accurate as well). If you played for eight hours, you'd pay yourself (as the sole employee of your business) $200 for the session and put the other $5000+ back into your bankroll.

I've tried explaining this simple idea to a couple of lollive pros at my local card room and they just couldn't wrap their heads around the idea of separating your winnings and losses from your hourly earnings. To them it was all the same, and they wouldn't separate income from bankroll.
Hardball47 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2017, 02:21 PM   #17779
johnny_on_the_spot
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
johnny_on_the_spot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: S-Mart
Posts: 10,921
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MIB211 View Post
Not unless paid from my stack which sometimes happens for food.

Anyway babysitter was $100 and I made almost $2k so it's a bit academic now.
well, on the same thought, are you paying the babysitter from your stack? i highly doubt it.


fwiw, i see it as a related expense so i track it as an expense in a different column. if i played professionally, i would actually have several columns for common expenses, one for food, one for tolls, one for gas, etc for accounting purposes and then probably a catch all expenses column that picks up ancillary uncommon expenses with notes.

congrats on the 2k hit
johnny_on_the_spot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2017, 02:34 PM   #17780
Risky
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 82
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardball47 View Post
Expenses are a column that you deduct from your actual winnings. Win rate is a statistic that approximately determines your hourly earnings. Expenses are not something you deduct from your win rate. That makes no logical, statistical or accounting sense.

Some full time players determine their estimated win rate over a large sample with a good confidence interval and then pay themselves out of their bankroll for hours played, regardless of win/loss or the amount. For example, you had a killer 2/5 session and raped the table for 10+ buyins and your hourly is estimated to be at $25/hour (probably conservative, but likely more accurate as well). If you played for eight hours, you'd pay yourself (as the sole employee of your business) $200 for the session and put the other $5000+ back into your bankroll.

I've tried explaining this simple idea to a couple of lollive pros at my local card room and they just couldn't wrap their heads around the idea of separating your winnings and losses from your hourly earnings. To them it was all the same, and they wouldn't separate income from bankroll.
So very similar to a long term hold on a dividend paying stock. (?) So if you decided one day that you're comfortable sticking to 5/10 but you're over rolled by 25k and pay yourself that 25k you would now be expected to tell Uncle Sam about it. Would it be best to tell him about 100% of this income or foolish to tell him about him about 100% of your untraceable income?

Also, will this only work if you claim yourself as a professional gambler? Surely the government won't care if you made 30k one year playing poker but claimed you reinvested 20k back into yourself?

Ps. I'm a tax noob and thank you for your time.
Risky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2017, 02:37 PM   #17781
MIB211
veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,011
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Am I using standard deviation to calculate win rate confidence interval correctly?

W/r = $48.39/hour
STD=$339.31/hour
Hours=326

339.31*1.96=664.44
Square root of 326=18.055
664.44/18.055=36.83

So, my 95% confidence interval would be $48.39+/- 36.83, so I can be fairly confident I'm at least an $11/hour winner in my game, and in theory could be up to an $85/hour winner in my game? Latter seems exceedingly unlikely.
MIB211 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2017, 04:30 PM   #17782
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MIB211 View Post
Am I using standard deviation to calculate win rate confidence interval correctly?

W/r = $48.39/hour
STD=$339.31/hour
Hours=326

339.31*1.96=664.44
Square root of 326=18.055
664.44/18.055=36.83

So, my 95% confidence interval would be $48.39+/- 36.83, so I can be fairly confident I'm at least an $11/hour winner in my game, and in theory could be up to an $85/hour winner in my game? Latter seems exceedingly unlikely.
Im sure the $11/hr low end is just as unlikely as the $85/hr
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2017, 06:01 PM   #17783
Hardball47
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: BET FLOP
Posts: 12,935
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MIB211 View Post
Am I using standard deviation to calculate win rate confidence interval correctly?

W/r = $48.39/hour
STD=$339.31/hour
Hours=326

339.31*1.96=664.44
Square root of 326=18.055
664.44/18.055=36.83

So, my 95% confidence interval would be $48.39+/- 36.83, so I can be fairly confident I'm at least an $11/hour winner in my game, and in theory could be up to an $85/hour winner in my game? Latter seems exceedingly unlikely.
There's a few more steps, IIRC. I don't remember the formula. If you've figured your approximate win rate, you don't necessarily need that kind of accuracy.
Hardball47 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2017, 06:24 PM   #17784
WereBeer
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 9,649
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardball47 View Post
Some full time players determine their estimated win rate over a large sample with a good confidence interval and then pay themselves out of their bankroll for hours played, regardless of win/loss or the amount. For example, you had a killer 2/5 session and raped the table for 10+ buyins and your hourly is estimated to be at $25/hour (probably conservative, but likely more accurate as well). If you played for eight hours, you'd pay yourself (as the sole employee of your business) $200 for the session and put the other $5000+ back into your bankroll.
This is the about the only sensible way to do it if you're a real full time pro IMO. It's the same as owning and running a business...someone who knows what they are doing pays themselves a wage, they don't just raid the cash register every time they want to buy something.
WereBeer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2017, 06:40 PM   #17785
Dochrohan
Pooh-Bah
 
Dochrohan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Somewhere else
Posts: 4,194
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

there is no wrong or right way to do, there is a more structured way to go about it.

If you have terrible spending leaks, you need to structure yourself. And get a work on those spending leaks. Then you don't need to structure yourself so much.
Dochrohan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2017, 06:44 PM   #17786
MIB211
veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,011
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Im sure the $11/hr low end is just as unlikely as the $85/hr
I don't know about that though obviously that's what the math says. Vast majority of these hours are playing 1/2. Deep stack ($200 min and no max) but also heavily raked. I don't know if 85/hour would even be possible as a true win rate, whether by me or anyone else.
MIB211 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2017, 06:48 PM   #17787
Avaritia
Confirmed 2500 hour haver
 
Avaritia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Florida
Posts: 12,215
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MIB211 View Post
I barreled the turn and have 2!
Fold pre
Avaritia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2017, 07:42 PM   #17788
znith
newbie
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 31
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hi guys, I have gotten back into poker in october and grew my BR to the point where I started taking 2/5 shots (at $5k)

The irony is that while I am doing well in soft 2/5 games (I am only playing once/twice a month when the game is soft), I have gone on a big downswing at my normal 1/2 stakes and am now even for the month.

have a $5k BR, up $1200 at 2/5 but down 1200 at 1/2, continue 2/5 and risk $$ or just ride out some bad variance at 1/2?

Further, the 2/5 game is really good as there is a huge tourney coming up, driving traffic to this room....

What do you think I should do?

PS. I have a day job that pays all the bills so the risk isn't not paying the rent or something
znith is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2017, 07:44 PM   #17789
Dochrohan
Pooh-Bah
 
Dochrohan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Somewhere else
Posts: 4,194
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So you have no difference since your shot take? Why not keep shot taking, it's pretty aggressive for a weaker player. If you're very strong, it's not that aggressive.
Dochrohan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2017, 07:45 PM   #17790
meale
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
meale's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 9,840
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Assuming you can beat the game, kepe playing 2/5.
meale is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2017, 08:00 PM   #17791
znith
newbie
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 31
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yeah, no difference since the shot take. I'm up about $80 for the month now, looking at my records to be exact - I am:

+$1250 at 2/5 (26 hours)
-1170 at 1/2 (14 hours)

Had a really bad session at 1/2 where i tilted off $600, so I think that is sticking in my head right now affecting my confidence.
znith is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-22-2017, 08:05 PM   #17792
Dochrohan
Pooh-Bah
 
Dochrohan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Somewhere else
Posts: 4,194
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Stay at $1/$2 until you get it back.
Dochrohan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-23-2017, 12:01 AM   #17793
AlexBalex
old hand
 
AlexBalex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Michigan
Posts: 1,626
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You're probably not game selecting $1/$2 enough as well.
AlexBalex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-23-2017, 12:09 AM   #17794
MIB211
veteran
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,011
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you have a day job, seems like you could take shots in 2/5 games if they're good and you feel like you're a winner in the game. Say you lose 4 buy ins and down to $3k, you could play 1/2 still and if necessary reload.

Basically, if you have the ability to reload and think you can at least break even at 2/5, you should play 2/5 if you'll enjoy it more. If you like 1/2 better you should play that.
MIB211 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-23-2017, 12:22 AM   #17795
iraisetoomuch
banned
 
iraisetoomuch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 34,453
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

When your risk of ruin is low you should be as agressive as possible assuming the risks are still +EV. (I.e. do you have a skill edge. )
iraisetoomuch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-23-2017, 01:31 AM   #17796
VolumeKing
adept
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 729
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

if you are playing your normal poker game you should have 4 buyins per stake to lose per session and you should plan on losing 3-4 sessions in a row fairly often. If you can't stomach losing $5k then you're not rolled for 2/5. If you cant handle losing $3500 you're not rolled for 1/3 and if you can't lose $2k then dont play 1/2. all of the above swings are normal and happen regularly to winning players. I know a few 10bbhr winners and they all have had around 10buyin downswings. Be prepared and dont be upset when you lose $5k; its normal
VolumeKing is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-23-2017, 05:04 AM   #17797
E Mo
journeyman
 
E Mo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: Austin, Texas
Posts: 336
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by VolumeKing View Post
if you are playing your normal poker game you should have 4 buyins per stake to lose per session and you should plan on losing 3-4 sessions in a row fairly often. If you can't stomach losing $5k then you're not rolled for 2/5. If you cant handle losing $3500 you're not rolled for 1/3 and if you can't lose $2k then dont play 1/2. all of the above swings are normal and happen regularly to winning players. I know a few 10bbhr winners and they all have had around 10buyin downswings. Be prepared and dont be upset when you lose $5k; its normal
This.

The 4 BI per session thing is very preference based. I tend to cap at around 3 BI because in a capped game I find it difficult to stay motivated when stuck 1500 with only 500 in front of me.

As for downswings, I am beating my 2/5 game for 15BB/HR over 400 hrs (obviously small sample size) and have suffered multiple 5k+ down swings, the worst being a week where I lost 7.5k. It's normal and especially if you play a LAG style your swings will be big and frequent.

Sent from my XT1650 using Tapatalk
E Mo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-23-2017, 10:21 AM   #17798
znith
newbie
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 31
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thanks guys for the advice. The $$ doesn't matter to me, however going busto after grinding 1/2 for the last few months would be disheartening.

I am going to play 1/2 today and see how it goes.

If I play 2/5 on sat night I think I might do something like subsidize from my personal roll so that each full buyin is $250 from poker and $250 from my paycheck. It's completely mental as it's all my $$ but it would just mean having a more prolonged shot at 2/5 in case things go sour.

Sorry for your $7,5k downswing but it's good to know that is likely and you're still positive about the game.

Thanks for all the replies and advice!
znith is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-23-2017, 10:41 AM   #17799
homerdash
banned
 
homerdash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: desert
Posts: 6,062
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

hey znith, I was in the same position for several months last year (job, saved most of 1/2 winnings and had $5k+ in cash bankroll after several hundred hours of 10bb+/hr profit)

I decided to do the opposite of you and never shot take, I had $10k roll as a target for getting into 2/5. Guess where on the below graph my biggest regret is not giving it a shot?

Anyways, play good 2/5 games and see what happens because the abyss still exists at 1/2

homerdash is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-23-2017, 10:51 AM   #17800
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

That's looks like about -$7000 over 250 hrs or so? 35 buy ins? WOW!
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:23 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive