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Old 01-18-2017, 10:31 PM   #17726
WereBeer
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
I am not going to beat a dead horse regarding the argument abainst having 2Bi or 3BI stop losses.

On a subject like stop losses, I think that people should consult the opinions of poker players who have won $500k+ over their last 10k hours. Then you would see that all the respectable players don't have such arbitrarily low stop loss limits.

I can see a little merit for a 5BI or 6BI stop loss, but 3BI stop losses are way too low.
This also depends on whether you are playing to pay the bills or not, I mean ideally you don't need a stop loss at all but if you play as a profitable hobby, then there's probably a lot of technical poker skills to dial in before your 3 buy in stop loss is the biggest thing holding back your win rate.
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Old 01-19-2017, 10:14 AM   #17727
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Want to mess around, with some calculations. The 1 thing my tracking app, doesn't track is Standard deviation.

Can few guys post what there is per/hr. So I can play a little today.

Just looking for rough estimates to work with

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Last edited by mikko; 01-19-2017 at 10:29 AM.
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Old 01-19-2017, 10:30 AM   #17728
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Search function is worthless on taptalk

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Old 01-19-2017, 10:30 AM   #17729
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Originally Posted by mikko View Post
Want to mess around, with some calculations. The 1 thing my tracking app, doesn't track is Standard deviation.

Can few guys post what there is per/hr. So I can play a little today.

Just looking for rough estimates to work with

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
$267/hr at $2/$5.
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Old 01-19-2017, 10:45 AM   #17730
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

$197/hr @ 1/2
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Old 01-19-2017, 10:52 AM   #17731
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Mine is $150/hr at 1/3
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Old 01-19-2017, 11:09 AM   #17732
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LOL at the rough estimates.
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Old 01-19-2017, 11:10 AM   #17733
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by mikko View Post
Want to mess around, with some calculations. The 1 thing my tracking app, doesn't track is Standard deviation.

Can few guys post what there is per/hr. So I can play a little today.

Just looking for rough estimates to work with

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Could you explain what standard deviation says about a person's game?

Edit: I see higher means higher variance game. How is this calculated?
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Old 01-19-2017, 11:20 AM   #17734
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Could you explain what standard deviation says about a person's game?

Edit: I see higher means higher variance game. How is this calculated?
Well, standard deviation can tell you quite a lot.

Tighter players, tend to have a smaller standard deviation, and looser players will have more variance so it's much bigger.

Also, you could be playing in very tough games and are the best player, and your standard deviation will be much bigger.

Overall Standard Deviation is relatively useless to determines one's skill.

If you really want to get into the math, I'm not.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...culate-575437/

Last edited by Dochrohan; 01-19-2017 at 11:28 AM.
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Old 01-19-2017, 02:18 PM   #17735
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Dochrohan View Post
Well, standard deviation can tell you quite a lot.

Tighter players, tend to have a smaller standard deviation, and looser players will have more variance so it's much bigger.

Also, you could be playing in very tough games and are the best player, and your standard deviation will be much bigger.

Overall Standard Deviation is relatively useless to determines one's skill.

If you really want to get into the math, I'm not.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25...culate-575437/
Thanks for the knowledge doch. Definitely something I'll let someone else think about.
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Old 01-19-2017, 06:00 PM   #17736
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My STD is $178.96 per hour.
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Old 01-19-2017, 06:36 PM   #17737
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LOL at the rough estimates.
Why do you think these are rough estimates? Because we didnt list the cents?

OK, mine is $267.41. Better?
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Old 01-19-2017, 09:50 PM   #17738
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843.37 @ 2/5. Seems high? Though my game is almost always straddled and has a 200bb BI so maybe this is really more of a 5/T std dev
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Old 01-19-2017, 11:58 PM   #17739
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Thanks guys

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Old 01-20-2017, 01:09 AM   #17740
RiverDonkey
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What do you guys think is a reasonable sample size to start looking at SD? Higher or lower than what we consider reasonable for a win rate (500+ hours)?


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Old 01-20-2017, 01:32 AM   #17741
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FWIW, STD is pretty worthless imo.
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Old 01-20-2017, 01:53 AM   #17742
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FWIW, STD is pretty worthless imo.
STD, I meant SD. Still pretty worthless.
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Old 01-20-2017, 09:23 AM   #17743
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STD, I meant SD. Still pretty worthless.
It doesnt tell you anything about if you are a good or bad player, but its not worthless.

Player A plays 2/5 and has a $300/hr StnDev
Player B plays 2/5 and has a $900/hr StnDev

Player B is going to need a hell of a lot more hours before he knows his true win rate. There is value in realizing that.
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Old 01-20-2017, 02:14 PM   #17744
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

SD is an important stat for anyone who cares about measuring the reliability of their results, what kind of downswings they can expect, how big of a bankroll they need, and comparing poker to other games or comparing different poker games.

If you are an aspiring pro wanting to know if you are ready to quit your job, you want to know your SD. If you play other games like blackjack/video poker and want to which game is the best value, you want to know your SD. If you are a competitive rec and want to know if you have a good win-rate over a certain sample, you need to know your SD. If you don't care about win-rates bankrolls or finances and just want to sit down, get drunk and gamble, you don't need to know your SD.

SD converges pretty quickly, so it shouldn't take long to know about what yours is. I can't really say how many hours you need, though.

Mine has been around 100BB/h for most games I've played in.
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Old 01-21-2017, 12:38 AM   #17745
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In my non $500k winning expierence, tilt has more to do with BRM and losing when one isn't rolled to lose than the amount of buyins it is. So in reality, it's a BRM issue
I have won a lot of money AND played a lot of hours. If I lose 5k in a given night playing 2/5 it will have ZERO impact on my life. However, my ass will most likely be tilted.
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Old 01-21-2017, 12:46 AM   #17746
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How do live pros actually let themselves play when tilted? Like if you're online playing 4+ tables of zoom w 1k+ hands per hour, sure, you're probably too focused on hands to constantly recognise you may be tilting. But it's really not hard for them and it should be much much easier for live players to recognise when they're playing under the influence of tilt. Like you have minutes between hands often to reflect upon how retadedly you're playing and what you're going to do to rectify it?????
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Old 01-21-2017, 01:18 AM   #17747
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How do live pros actually let themselves play when tilted? Like if you're online playing 4+ tables of zoom w 1k+ hands per hour, sure, you're probably too focused on hands to constantly recognise you may be tilting. But it's really not hard for them and it should be much much easier for live players to recognise when they're playing under the influence of tilt. Like you have minutes between hands often to reflect upon how retadedly you're playing and what you're going to do to rectify it?????
One of the reasons y I win a lot is because I am able to look at myself honestly - and evaluate my mental status. It does not happen often, but when I feel myself getting off my game - I am done period.

Biggest leak I see in live players is entitlement tilt
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Old 01-21-2017, 06:43 AM   #17748
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Entitlement tilt is just a sub-genre of tilt.

In the end, mental game mistakes cost poker players a lot of money.

Entitlement tilt, might just be the worst version of tilt, that you will witness on a daily basis. The worst versions of tilt are the ones that cause you to bust your bankroll. If you have that issue, you need to stop gambling. For example:You lose $400 at $1/2 and you move up to $2/$5 to try and win it back easier. Then you dump money there and you go up again.

The tilt usually happens if I'm just getting coolered after coolered. In live it'll take about 5 buy-ins before I need to walk away. Or some guy succesfully needling me in a monster pot. I start to miss smaller details in a hand than I would normally when I start to tilt, ala, losing focus.

And I'll sometimes not notice a stack size of a raiser on opposite ends of the table.

All very small things but it adds up.
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Old 01-21-2017, 08:03 AM   #17749
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MGOP people, MGOP.
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Old 01-21-2017, 11:57 AM   #17750
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Madison County GOP?

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