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Old 01-07-2017, 10:52 PM   #17576
YGOchamp
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
My apologies, Sir.

The rest of my post is still valid though. This isnt 2004. You cant get it in with TPTK and expect to win that often.
It's fine, but I disagree that the rest of your post is still valid.

Your argument was that my reasoning was a reflection of my poor WR. But now that it's discovered that my WR is in fact not poor like you previously assumed, my logic likely holds merit.

lol 2004 or 2024, live 1/2 is going to remain horribad in most of the country

Doesn't matter what year it is, people just can't start flopping more sets on KT6r
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Old 01-07-2017, 11:38 PM   #17577
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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
It's fine, but I disagree that the rest of your post is still valid.

Your argument was that my reasoning was a reflection of my poor WR. But now that it's discovered that my WR is in fact not poor like you previously assumed, my logic likely holds merit.

lol 2004 or 2024, live 1/2 is going to remain horribad in most of the country

Doesn't matter what year it is, people just can't start flopping more sets on KT6r
No, but they aren't winning to play for stacks very often with KJ anymore either.
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Old 01-07-2017, 11:50 PM   #17578
YGOchamp
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Now you're going into the evolution of metagame, not of skill level.

You're massively overestimating how often people are able to flop TPTK, especially when the other person has top pair, or even middle pair.

If people stop calling with KJ, then you just start over-bluffing... and if people start overbluffing, people start over-calling.... etc etc etc. It's an endless cycle, and the winners are the ones who are able to identify and exploit current tendencies/trends amongst any given population.

You're way oversimplifying it.
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Old 01-08-2017, 12:01 AM   #17579
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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
Or just be 20 and people will pay you off regardless of if you fold for 3 hours straight
Lol this +1,000. Just look like an Internet kid and no one folds to you ever.
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Old 01-08-2017, 12:26 AM   #17580
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Originally Posted by Dizzyqtp View Post
Lol this +1,000. Just look like an Internet kid and no one folds to you ever.
I look like a recreational 'just hear to have a good time guy' and I don't get alot of folds. A lot of it has to do with picking your villians and spots.
I often get folds when I start really bombing and people know its going to be 50+bb on the turn with 50+bb behind.... Put a normal BI into play and folds can happen (if your story is legit).
At 1/3 I expect 30% of the folds I get at 2/5, and thus have a more value heavy big-bet range paired with being more passive and stationy preflop and flop (bet sizing IMHO is even worse here, regularly given long odd-draws a good chance to improve for phenomenal pricing.)
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Old 01-09-2017, 10:31 AM   #17581
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2 nl online is probably very comparable in skill level to like 1/2nl live, right? With how easy it is to track online win rates, from what ive read, 30 bb/100 hands is around where players have maxed out over a large sample.

Live, 30bb / 100hands at 1/2 is $15/ hour, assuming 25 hands/ hr. So with these massive win rates stated itt, as much as id like to believe it being a live player myself, how can they be true? There should be some hard evidence of huge win rates bigger than 30 bb/ 100 hands online @ 2nl, shouldnt there? (and yes, people move up, but even over like 40k hands...)
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Old 01-09-2017, 10:57 AM   #17582
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2 nl online is probably very comparable in skill level to like 1/2nl live, right? With how easy it is to track online win rates, from what ive read, 30 bb/100 hands is around where players have maxed out over a large sample.

Live, 30bb / 100hands at 1/2 is $15/ hour, assuming 25 hands/ hr. So with these massive win rates stated itt, as much as id like to believe it being a live player myself, how can they be true? There should be some hard evidence of huge win rates bigger than 30 bb/ 100 hands online @ 2nl, shouldnt there? (and yes, people move up, but even over like 40k hands...)
Live players are so much worse than online players its basically a different game. Not only are online players a hell of a lot better but they are normally playing multiple tables so they can easily fold and wait for a better hand. Live players have no patience and dont come to fold.

PS...Ive counted many times at random periods and I get 40 /hands per hour.
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Old 01-09-2017, 11:53 AM   #17583
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It's hard to compare a live game to an online game as the conditions are so different.

You've got guys that are extreme examples of everything you'd see online, making them easy to exploit. Last night I watched two drunk/high morons get into a pissing contest blasting every other pot for pot or 2xpot or 200bb AI bets. That's a license to print money if you have a modicum of hand selection and patience. Spewtards like this are relatively common too.

Most games are also deeper BI structures than you see online for a given bb size. 150bb ($300) for $1/2 is super common. And a deeper game plays bigger. I'd estimate that a winrate should scale roughly with the mean stack depth, so you'd see a 50% increase to $21.50/hr in your example.

I've counted hands as well, and often get about 15-18/down for 30-36/hr. Although it's typically closer to 30, and it's less just as often as it's more. I'm generally skeptical of MikeStarr's posts on winrate and strategy, but I think a large component is that his game conditions are notably different than many of the rest of us. And regularly getting 40 hands/hr would definitely qualify as different.
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Old 01-09-2017, 12:36 PM   #17584
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Originally Posted by Edpoker123 View Post
Hi everyone, I currently play 1/2 live poker at local casinos. Took a break for a few months, looking to get back at grinding. Problem is I only have 2 buyins I can afford to lose. I am a winning player. Last year I grinded 2 buyins up to 10buyins before using the money for something. I only grind live is 2 buyins enough to get back to grinding ? your thoughts, thank you.
Why do you think you're a winning player? (serious question, as a long term winning player probably wouldn't ask a question like this)

2 BIs can be lost *so* easily. If you can't afford to lose it, don't play poker.

GimoG
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Old 01-09-2017, 02:55 PM   #17585
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Why do you think you're a winning player? (serious question, as a long term winning player probably wouldn't ask a question like this)

2 BIs can be lost *so* easily. If you can't afford to lose it, don't play poker.

GimoG
Cuz he grinded 2 BI's up to 10 last year, ldo.
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Old 01-09-2017, 02:56 PM   #17586
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Cuz he grinded 2 BI's up to 10 last year, ldo.
Ha, I was worried that might be his answer.

GI'msurehe'llletusknowG
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Old 01-09-2017, 03:18 PM   #17587
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I genuinely wonder how many people here think they ran hot in 2016 wrt their winrate or that their 2016 winrate as unsustainable.

I know my PLO winrate was unsustainable in a bad way.
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Old 01-09-2017, 03:24 PM   #17588
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My PLO winrate was lolol unsustainable.
My hold'em win rate was about right I think.

Spoiler:
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Old 01-09-2017, 04:28 PM   #17589
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Will get around to running the full breakdown for the year soon. Want to compare my home game results to casinos and charity rooms (even though LOL samplesize). I do drink at the home games so that may constitute a leak.

Wouldn't be surprised if I was net negative playing PLO/RxR.

NLHE winrate wasn't super hot, so I'd say it was sustainable.
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Old 01-09-2017, 05:10 PM   #17590
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I've been tracking my PLO for the past few months. It's a roller coaster.
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Old 01-09-2017, 05:12 PM   #17591
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by aoFrantic View Post
I genuinely wonder how many people here think they ran hot in 2016 wrt their winrate or that their 2016 winrate as unsustainable.

I know my PLO winrate was unsustainable in a bad way.
I really have no idea. I only played ~250 hours this year, but for what it's worth my winrate was about the same as it was over the last 3 years.

If I had to guess I'd say slightly lucky, even including 100 breakeven hours. But it's certainly possible I've just been running 2-3x my true WR the whole time.
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Old 01-09-2017, 10:41 PM   #17592
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why do I think I am a winning player. Because when I enter a casino 9/10 times I come out a winner.
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Old 01-09-2017, 11:16 PM   #17593
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Originally Posted by Edpoker123 View Post
why do I think I am a winning player. Because when I enter a casino 9/10 times I come out a winner.
This is super easy to calculate. Follow along.

1) You make da monies 90% of the time you walk into the casino

2) You have 2 BI's

Therefore you have a [(1 - 0.9) * (1 - 0.9)] % chance of going busto before you achieve poker enlightenment and a bust in the hall of fame

ps: that is 1% chance in case you didn't want to do the math. See you at 10/25 in a few weeks
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Old 01-09-2017, 11:17 PM   #17594
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Originally Posted by Edpoker123 View Post
why do I think I am a winning player. Because when I enter a casino 9/10 times I come out a winner.
No offense, but unless you have records to back that up, it seems very unlikely and/or to be based on a very small sample size. Even the very best players rarely have a winning percentage over 70% over a large sample.


Long story short, even if you are amazing, it is easy to lose twice in a row and/or two buy-ins in one session. If you can afford to add to that 2 buy-ins, go for it, but no, even for Phil Ivey, 2 buy ins does not a bankroll make.
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Old 01-09-2017, 11:26 PM   #17595
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Why do you think you're a winning player? (serious question, as a long term winning player probably wouldn't ask a question like this)

2 BIs can be lost *so* easily. If you can't afford to lose it, don't play poker.

GimoG
I lost 11BI in one 5hr sesh at 1/3 about a week ago. Nothing too out of the ordinary.
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Old 01-10-2017, 12:06 AM   #17596
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Originally Posted by niceguy22 View Post
2 nl online is probably very comparable in skill level to like 1/2nl live, right? With how easy it is to track online win rates, from what ive read, 30 bb/100 hands is around where players have maxed out over a large sample.

Live, 30bb / 100hands at 1/2 is $15/ hour, assuming 25 hands/ hr. So with these massive win rates stated itt, as much as id like to believe it being a live player myself, how can they be true? There should be some hard evidence of huge win rates bigger than 30 bb/ 100 hands online @ 2nl, shouldnt there? (and yes, people move up, but even over like 40k hands...)
My thoughts exactly when switching from online to live. I still think these winrates are a myth that make live players overestimate the profitability of live poker. PS, I was under the impression that 20bb/100 was the max for 2nl online? This was based solely off magorko's sample played there. Where have you seen 30bb/100 over any sample?

I would say 1/2 and 2/5 live play similar to 2nl online. The main difference is the average Vpip. Online games people play far less hands ~20-30%, often far less. Live vpips are much much higher. Also with a huge increase in multiway pots, our equity in any hand is decreased. This creates a much higher standard deviation or variance in the live games compared to 2nl online. I am convinced however that over a big sample one could beat 2/5 for 20bb/100, maybe closer to 25bb/100 if it plays deep. The issue is that if you're only getting 30 hands per hour, even if you win at 25bb/100, you're only looking at 7.5bb/HR.

Be very careful what people tell you wrt live winrates. Do the math yourself. Things to consider are stack depth, table vpip, hand rates, standard dev, your strategy/approach. Always be conservative wrt Ewinrates and understand that you can simply run terrible for over 1k hours - which is a very very long time.
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Old 01-10-2017, 12:06 AM   #17597
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I lost 11BI in one 5hr sesh at 1/3 about a week ago. Nothing too out of the ordinary.
... wait what lol
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Old 01-10-2017, 12:07 AM   #17598
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I lost 11BI in one 5hr sesh at 1/3 about a week ago. Nothing too out of the ordinary.
Kind of concerning if you're buying in for 100bb.
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Old 01-10-2017, 12:14 AM   #17599
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My thoughts exactly when switching from online to live. I still think these winrates are a myth that make live players overestimate the profitability of live poker. PS, I was under the impression that 20bb/100 was the max for 2nl online? This was based solely off magorko's sample played there. Where have you seen 30bb/100 over any sample?

I would say 1/2 and 2/5 live play similar to 2nl online. The main difference is the average Vpip. Online games people play far less hands ~20-30%, often far less. Live vpips are much much higher. Also with a huge increase in multiway pots, our equity in any hand is decreased. This creates a much higher standard deviation or variance in the live games compared to 2nl online. I am convinced however that over a big sample one could beat 2/5 for 20bb/100, maybe closer to 25bb/100 if it plays deep. The issue is that if you're only getting 30 hands per hour, even if you win at 25bb/100, you're only looking at 7.5bb/HR.

Be very careful what people tell you wrt live winrates. Do the math yourself. Things to consider are stack depth, table vpip, hand rates, standard dev, your strategy/approach. Always be conservative wrt Ewinrates and understand that you can simply run terrible for over 1k hours - which is a very very long time.
I've actually only heard of around 20bb / 100 hands. I was just giving the benefit of the doubt and assuming someone may have gotten to 30
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Old 01-10-2017, 12:18 AM   #17600
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I've actually only heard of around 20bb / 100 hands. I was just giving the benefit of the doubt and assuming someone may have gotten to 30
Pretty huge difference IMO. But yeah, even if 20-25bb/100 is the roof for 2nl, and you know how ******ed that game plays, hard to imagine any game especially with a rake increase playing any worse in terms of potential winrates.
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