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Old 01-04-2017, 03:59 PM   #17526
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Started 2017 off with a bang.

Played the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, for +$52.50 over 23.8 hours, or $2.21/hr. Woo hoo!
Really shouldn't sit in the shorthanded PLO home game tables where I don't have a significant edge.

My winrate/BR goals for 2017 are:

1) Play 300 days this year.

2) Suck less at PLO. (Any recommendations?)

3) Game select better. If the single table home or charity game isn't good, leave.

4) Stop skimming my roll for misc. expenses and build up a bigger cash stash to negate the impact of swings.
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Old 01-04-2017, 04:01 PM   #17527
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Giraffes from overall winners who booked losing/breakeven years would be an awesome balance people; don't be shy!

I still remember reading an article a few years ago regarding how Jason Mercier booked a losing year after some remarkable years.

Gmightbookalosingyearin2017justsoIcanpostoneG
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Old 01-04-2017, 04:02 PM   #17528
tibrida
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

2016 results:

Total of $11,615 for 345 hours @ $33.67/hr

Mixture of 1/2, 1/3, 2/5, and 5/T

1/2 and 1/3 about 35%, 2/5 about 60%, and 5/T about 5% of total hours played

Plan for 2017 is more studying and more hours. I also would like to play more 5/T. MGM NH just opened up in my area but all their games run deeper. I may have to hold off on the transition until 2018 =(
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Old 01-04-2017, 04:03 PM   #17529
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
I also had a losing year but played less than 300 hours and tried some new things. They did not work.
I'm guessing you tried to be super aggro / attempt to 4barrel people off TP more than you did in the past?

GjustaguessG
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Old 01-04-2017, 04:06 PM   #17530
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The graphs I've posted before covered the losing years, although everything was plotted by hour instead of date so it's hard to pick out where each one is exactly (maybe I'll color code next time). If you're getting < 500 hours/year there's enough volatility that a little runbad + poor play / tilt can tank it
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Old 01-04-2017, 04:41 PM   #17531
Avaritia
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I'm guessing you tried to be super aggro / attempt to 4barrel people off TP more than you did in the past?

GjustaguessG
Haha. Actually the opposite. (Not trolling)

I tried to mimick a player I consider to be the best live player I've ever seen. He's also very passive. So I tried incorporating his style. I still think it's very good, I just obv don't understand it and put myself in tough to spots. He limps suited broadways EP and limps hands as strong as JJ utg. He will check back TP often. Doesn't bluff even very good rivers. Stuff like this.

Also plo. Haha
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Old 01-04-2017, 04:45 PM   #17532
niceguy22
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Lots of great results itt, congrats! I started playing again in May of 2016 and the results were not exactly what I was hoping for after a good start, but reasonable.

300 hours (all at 1/2)
Profit = $3750
$12.5 profit / hr
55% winning sessions

After 86 hours, I got up to $4730 ($55/hr), followed by a painful 195 hour downswing to $2250, with a nice $1500 heater to finish off the year at $3750. Good luck in 2017!
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Old 01-04-2017, 04:48 PM   #17533
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Haha. Actually the opposite. (Not trolling)

I tried to mimick a player I consider to be the best live player I've ever seen. He's also very passive. So I tried incorporating his style. I still think it's very good, I just obv don't understand it and put myself in tough to spots. He limps suited broadways EP and limps hands as strong as JJ utg. He will check back TP often. Doesn't bluff even very good rivers. Stuff like this.

Also plo. Haha
Ha, I always thought you were struggling with the thought that some crushers have taken it to the next level against casino regs who can manage to fold TP and thus went super aggro. It's a style I've struggle considered (especially with my nit image), but I doubt my conservative nature will let me get there.

FWIW, I'm also super passive in EP. In fact, in loose games with 100bb+ stacks I actually have a 0% raising range in EP. And my default in anything other than very short stack games is to mostly limp suited broadway (even the strong end of those) and even sometimes even hands as strong as JJ due to they play fine multiway in high SPR pots (if we're nutmining). Course, postflop we have to play fairly nitty multiway, which means we often end up folding the best hand on the flop; I probably fold the best hand on the flop more than anyone, but that's just part of the tradeoff with this style.

Ditto for checking back TP often, although this is mostly due to my tight image often better suited to setting up bluff catchers against aggro opponents / pot control if I don't want to get into commitment problems.

But obviously, it depends.

GbutIalsohasthesucksatpoker,sowhateverG
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Old 01-04-2017, 04:51 PM   #17534
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

GG believe me I know. I swear to God I thought of you when defining his play to myself. Haha
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Old 01-04-2017, 04:53 PM   #17535
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
GG believe me I know. I swear to God I thought of you when defining his play to myself. Haha
Lol!

GcopyDonkey,ldoG
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Old 01-04-2017, 04:54 PM   #17536
niceguy22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Haha. Actually the opposite. (Not trolling)

I tried to mimick a player I consider to be the best live player I've ever seen. He's also very passive. So I tried incorporating his style. I still think it's very good, I just obv don't understand it and put myself in tough to spots. He limps suited broadways EP and limps hands as strong as JJ utg. He will check back TP often. Doesn't bluff even very good rivers. Stuff like this.

Also plo. Haha
The guy that might be the best player in my room plays a similar style. Very passive pre. Seems to check back a lot of flops and then will raise the turn pretty often. I dont understand what hes doing half the time but he always has a monster stack and he very rarely loses a big pot. He just seems to generally know if hes ahead or not and is able to make thin raises / big folds with bigtime accuracy
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Old 01-04-2017, 05:11 PM   #17537
Avaritia
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^^ describes villain. It's like he marks the cards. I have been tracking his wr when we play together (creep much?) He's over $100/hr.
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Old 01-04-2017, 05:25 PM   #17538
gobbledygeek
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
^^ describes villain. It's like he marks the cards. I have been tracking his wr when we play together (creep much?) He's over $100/hr.
Could easily just be sample size.

I've got a guy in my room who has recently been creeping me. He sees that I *always* cash out money at the end of a session; course, that doesn't mean I'm up due to the fact I always keep my stack topped off to 100bb (so I could be stuck a bunch). And then it just takes a few big sessions where he sees me sitting with a green stack in a red stack game where I'm always the guy sitting with a green stack, when in reality that only happened like ~10% of the time this year. And he doesn't necessarily know what I did on the table I just came from (where I could easily be down a couple of BIs).

Gcourse,it'salsopossiblehecrushesG
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Old 01-04-2017, 05:40 PM   #17539
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've seen this type of villain before too. Limping/calling into a lot of pots and somehow managing to get paid enough to build a huge stack while dodging bullets.

I suspect that these guys are just *very* good at profiling their opponents, partially through live tells, and partially through betting patterns and hand/situation reading. They play enough hands to back into some monsters in weird spots, which tends to stick in many villains heads and mess with their game as this guy "always has it", which buys the passive player free streets and FE against passive V's, while gaining max value from aggrotards when he hits a hand.
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Old 01-04-2017, 05:42 PM   #17540
niceguy22
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I was thinking that maybe these crushers that play this way are solid, but what sets them apart is that they've studied live tells / physiological responses to different situations. Just a guess
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Old 01-04-2017, 05:48 PM   #17541
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If people want to come in here and claim they made $XX/hour when they didn't you really think you saying 'no no, that's bullshyt' is going to all of a sudden make them repost and admit they lied?

And do you think that if they did make it, you are encouraging them to post more and offer their advice?
If someone says they crush, congratulate them (or just stfu and leave them alone) and move along.
Ask for their advice and if it's good, copy it, if it isn't then ignore it/them.

Spoiler:
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Old 01-04-2017, 06:02 PM   #17542
WereBeer
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I get very few hours in due to having a job and living a long way from the casino, so this is over a 2 year period:

2/3 NLHE
53 sessions
Win rate 53%
347.69 hours (6.56 hours average session length)
$7,206 won
$20.73 per hour (6.91 bb per hour)
STDev bb/hr = 59.65
95% confidence win rate range = $1.62 to $40.01

2015 I averaged $2.70 per hour and 2016 it was $28.31 per hour. I feel I ran badly in 2015 and then clocked up rungood in 2016. Of course that can be put in perspective against this tiny sample size and the "true" win rate range I posted above. My feeling is overall I've been running slightly favourably but $20 an hour is sustainable because I'm better live than when I started. I could be wrong of course.

I play a pretty basic TAG/nitty game and I think anyone who is prepared to work on a decent preflop strategy and is patient enough to fold until they get a hand and not tilt should be able to grind out this kind of rate in a soft live game. Luckily 90% of regs refuse to acquire even this modest skill set so we should all consider ourselves lucky IMO.

Last edited by WereBeer; 01-04-2017 at 06:09 PM.
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Old 01-04-2017, 07:47 PM   #17543
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

In addition to what IRTM posted, I'll just add that the right answer if you think someone is breaking posting norms ITT is to hit the report button, not to respond in the thread.
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Old 01-04-2017, 08:20 PM   #17544
venice10
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
I've seen this type of villain before too. Limping/calling into a lot of pots and somehow managing to get paid enough to build a huge stack while dodging bullets.

I suspect that these guys are just *very* good at profiling their opponents, partially through live tells, and partially through betting patterns and hand/situation reading. They play enough hands to back into some monsters in weird spots, which tends to stick in many villains heads and mess with their game as this guy "always has it", which buys the passive player free streets and FE against passive V's, while gaining max value from aggrotards when he hits a hand.
I suspect it is more of exploiting the betting tendencies of many LLSNL players. HOC went over this strategy over 10 years ago. See lots of cheap flops. When you hit, exploit people who can't fold a potential winning hand.

The counter-strategy is to raise bigger and more in position. Avoid betting into -EV situations against the villain's calling range.

Finally, complaining about the bad strat in this forum is a leak. If you feel it should be better, you should be posting the better strat. If you don't want to help people, the last thing you should be doing is telling others it is bad. You would keep your mouth shut so others follow it.
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Old 01-04-2017, 08:20 PM   #17545
MikeStarr
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
If people want to come in here and claim they made $XX/hour when they didn't you really think you saying 'no no, that's bullshyt' is going to all of a sudden make them repost and admit they lied?

And do you think that if they did make it, you are encouraging them to post more and offer their advice?
If someone says they crush, congratulate them (or just stfu and leave them alone) and move along.
Ask for their advice and if it's good, copy it, if it isn't then ignore it/them.

Spoiler:
I'll add that just because you think the advice is bad and you feel like you should ignore it, doesnt make it so. If they are really crushing the games and you arent, theres a very good chance that their seemingly controversial or contrarian advice is whats making them crush and you might want to try something new before disregarding it off the cuff.
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Old 01-04-2017, 09:08 PM   #17546
Dream
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My friend wants to play live 1/2 nl.

He has an extra $500 a week from his 50 hr a week job with 2 days off a week.

He wants to play at least these two days a week, track his progress.

Just tell him to bring like min $400 on his days off, and keep adding the surplus every week or keep reloading every week

or tell him save up like 3k first then start hitting it up?
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Old 01-04-2017, 09:10 PM   #17547
cAmmAndo
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Wait a week and bring 4 bi IMO.
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Old 01-04-2017, 09:36 PM   #17548
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To start just bring $400 and track as he builds his roll up through his job.
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Old 01-04-2017, 10:06 PM   #17549
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To start just bring $400 and track as he builds his roll up through his job.
wtf, how you gonna name yourself Dream Crusher?
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Old 01-04-2017, 10:06 PM   #17550
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yeah, no need to save up if he can replenish.
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