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Old 01-04-2017, 11:41 AM   #17501
wj294
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If your opponents are limp calling 25bb with 84s then you should comfortably be winning at a similar rate if not far higher than Donkeycopter. He outlined some good reasons why he feels he maintains a solid w/r.
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Old 01-04-2017, 11:56 AM   #17502
bodybuilder32
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Of course my opponents aren't regularly making this play, if they were I wouldn't even need to study any poker strategy beyond "Play Poker Like the Pro's". It just so happens the only time I have ever seen a hand that weak call a raise size that big, he hits a 1% flop to stack me. It may take years of play before I ever come see a situation like that come up again.

The point I am demonstrating is low stakes poker is "make a hand poker". Even if I had a "read" that this guy was limping in with ATC and that his hand is trash, wtf am I supposed to do with that read if he is willing to call $75 PF. All I can do is sigh and hope to pick up a value hand.

The example also illustrates that all it takes is one bad beat to cut your win rate down significantly in any 100 hour strecth. If you face a couple bad beats, you might not win a cent. Also, if you go card dead, your sh** out of luck too, you're not going to make any money that session.

Have you ever been sucked out on in a big pot? If you are playing higher stakes then it can literally take you months of full-time, 40 hours a week play to get your bankroll back to where it was. In case you didn't know, when your waiting hours to pick up a value hand and finally do, it's really, realy crippling to get sucked out on after all the money gets in.

<mod edit>

Last edited by Garick; 01-04-2017 at 07:34 PM. Reason: removed unacceptable portion of post
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Old 01-04-2017, 12:19 PM   #17503
MikeStarr
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bodybuilder32 View Post
Possibly, but the advice provided is pretty damn close to optimal. If anything, some of the advice recommended seems over aggressive in regards to PF raises with marginal hands against a field of loose players that don't fold often enough PF or after the flop. But usually the forum is pretty spot on about recommending the correct folds and not paying people off. You recently started a thread about folding AK PF (which I would have done in that spot given how bad the other players were at the table post flop so why risk losing your stack in a cooler situation) so I think you know the importance of playing tight.

My point is, there aren't really that many "plays" or creative moves you can make to earn more money at the low stakes tables other than plugging leaks (which usually means playing too many hands or calling too many bets post flop). I play pretty damn tight, but I am not so tight where I am not raising over limpers in late position with suited connector hands or folding pocket pairs with ridiculously good set mining odds.

That's why it seems really weird for someone to claim such large win rates. Like, are you calling raises from LAGs out of position and then floating or check raising their flop c-bets? Are you calling from the button with ATC hoping to put in a big raise on the turn against an OMC in a multiway pot? I mean, all of these plays can work in deep stack play, but they might bump up your winrate a couple dollars an hour. This is if you can even find deep stack games against scared money players who you can push around. Many, many, many players hit and run if they ever find themselves with a deep stack, so the only other players playing deep are other winning players or Laggy fish who can actually play pretty well against us deep.

I don't mean to side track off into strat discussion, but when someone claims a 20BB an hour win rate they have to be doin something way different than everybody else. I'm just speculating on what that could possibly be.
This will be the last thing I will say on this because I dont want to start a fight and get sent to the principals office, but if you think the strat advice given here is "pretty damned close to optimal" then its obvious why you are not winning as much as you would like.

There are some good posters in the strat forums of course, and Ive learned from some of them over the past year. Ive picked up a few things here and there and added them to my game, but the majority of posters are beginners to intermediate level as far as being experienced players and as far as how much they win. Very few top level players or actual pros who play 125-160+ hrs per month post here.

Nobody can sustain a 20BB/hr win rate so Im sure hes been running hot but hes clearly a very good player also. The problem around here is that anyone who posts a super high win rate is accused of lying about it instead of anyone actually trying to figure out what they are doing differently.
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Old 01-04-2017, 12:50 PM   #17504
Dochrohan
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My mixed games W/R is pushing xxx/hr on 5/10+ PLO and 20/40+ stud. I wish these games ran more than NLHE.


I've never sustained 20bb/hr win-rates but I'm also not very good and some of my NLHE games are tougher than most American games.
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Old 01-04-2017, 01:17 PM   #17505
gobbledygeek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by prairiebreeze View Post
My 2016:

4.79BB/HR over 224 hours. 55% session win percentage.

About double the hours I thought I was going to get, but had set a 6-7BB/HR goal.

I will likely play less this year, but want to be at the 7BB/HR average in 2017. That's the goal.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Congrats!

7 bb/hr is tough. And since it sounds like you'll be playing a rather lol sample size this year, it's really just going to come down whether you run well.

Ggoodluck!G
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Old 01-04-2017, 01:19 PM   #17506
gobbledygeek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jc315 View Post
So I started playing poker almost exactly 1 year ago (December 2015). Always enjoyed watching poker on TV/youtube, but never played outside of the occasional games with friends (all of whom had no idea what they were doing)

2016
$2/3 NL:


503 hours
+$13,105
8.68bb/hr


some notes/caveats:


-definitely just ran pretty good overall (although I had some small stretches of run bad, but i people on this forum have experienced much much worse so nothing to really complain about). my game definitely grew a ton but there is only so much that you can learn in a year. many people might notice some threads i used to post a year ago, and i was a huge fish. i still am, but lesser so. definitely a fish on a heater here.

-my room typically always has a lot of games running allowing me to game select/better odds of juicier games

-i ended 2016 with a 2 350bb+ wins and 1 more big win; if i take those out my winrate drops to ~7.2 bb/hr


hoping to study my game a lot more over the first quarter of 2017 and hopefully start playing $2/5 some percentage of the time.
Fantastic start!

Table selection will most likely have the single biggest affect on your lifetime rate, imo.

Ggoodluck!G
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Old 01-04-2017, 01:22 PM   #17507
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Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
Nice results people!

So basically I'm the only one prepared to post about a losing year?

Or am I the only non Crusher on here?
I believe Miami mentioned in the chat thread that he had a losing year.

Gwhatisthisthingyouspeakof,"losing"?G
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Old 01-04-2017, 01:27 PM   #17508
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I think the majority of strat advice in LLSNL is pretty horrid.

Anywho, Bodybuilder, just because poker doesnt quite "click" for you wrt being able to truly crush souls in live poker, doesnt mean other people arent capable of doing it. His results are far from unattainable and honestly pretty standard for a very solid player in a 1/2 or 1/3 game (those games are laughably soft everywhere in the country).

Youre massively overestimating your own skill level.
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Old 01-04-2017, 01:27 PM   #17509
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Do you play in Vegas too? Are you comparing apples to apples? The reason I ask is because my winrate would be drastically different based on where I live and play. My closest casino is Tropicana in Evansville but I think I could do much better in Vegas or the Midwest or LA where there are more choices. I'm sure if I did my research I could find other places even better. By the same token I'm sure there are places much worse.

Also, game selection and table selection cannot be understated. I went to Vegas for a week in November and one morning at Aria I immediately noticed my table sucked but there was one nearby I thought looked juicy. I put in a table change request and ended up making my best profit of the trip. Had I stayed, I'm pretty sure it wouldn't have been near as good.

I'm not scrutinizing or validating anyone's results because honestly I only care about mine and it's futile and useless to try to worry about anyone else's but we can all improve our game.

Last edited by Garick; 01-04-2017 at 07:37 PM. Reason: Scrubbed the quote
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Old 01-04-2017, 01:28 PM   #17510
gobbledygeek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
I didn't have a losing year but I came damn close! I managed to snatch profit from the jaws of loss.

1st full year playing $2/5 and I screwed the pooch after being up 5k over my first 50 hours. Lots of leveling myself into bad call offs, spew, etc. Went on an 8k downswing at one point. Got some good advice, righted the ship and got back on track. Tracking at 5.5 bb over the last 250 hours or so. (In b4 lolsamplesize)

Goals for 2017 are to play 450-500 hours, play some PLO when it looks good, and learn some other variants. My casino opened a new swanky card room. With it comes a dealer pool that's been trained to deal all sorts of games like badugi and triple draw. I'd like to be there when those games go off and not be a total fish doing it.




Might be the first time we've seen a < 50% session winning percentage post a positive overall winrate here?

Any concerns that the bulk of the profit came in a lol sample size of the biggest game?

Still, even if you had a horrible year, you still did better than almost all of your opponents. Winning can't be taken for granted / underappreciated.

Ggoodluckin2017!G
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Old 01-04-2017, 01:37 PM   #17511
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My 2016 results:

Due to a phone issue, I only have hourly numbers since mid-April. Since Mid-April I'm up $13,911 over 297.5 hours for an hourly of $46.70. Most (about 240) of those hours are in the local 1/2 uncapped game I play in, where my win rate is just shy of $40/hour, the rest is in 17 hours of 1/3 where my win rate is $25/hour, and 31 hours of 2/5 where my win rate is an unsustainable $118/hour. Prior to mid-April I had $2700 of winnings, so total poker winnings for the year are $16,611.

I've run-good in a number of respects, including by running better at 2/5 than my normal 1/2 stakes. Also, in the last session of the year someone shipped me $1,000 in a pot where I had the nuts and they misread their hand. That alone added almost $3.50 to my hourly winrate for the year. I don't think my win rate is sustainable given how much 1/2 I play. My game is uncapped and plays more like 2/5, but rake is pretty extreme.
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Old 01-04-2017, 01:43 PM   #17512
DeathCabForTootie
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Might be the first time we've seen a < 50% session winning percentage post a positive overall winrate here?

Any concerns that the bulk of the profit came in a lol sample size of the biggest game?

Still, even if you had a horrible year, you still did better than almost all of your opponents. Winning can't be taken for granted / underappreciated.

Ggoodluckin2017!G
Thanks for the kind words GG!

I think winning vs. losing session count is a poor barometer for performance. I tend to leave early if I'm losing and stay when I'm winning, so it's possible I have more losing sessions but have a few monster winning sessions to offset. Also I have a ton of sessions logged where I played $1/2 waiting for another game, posted blinds and folded everything. That's considered a losing session in my records.

Frankly I should be more concerned I'm a net loser last year at $1/2 and $1/3.
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Old 01-04-2017, 01:55 PM   #17513
YGOchamp
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post

I think winning vs. losing session count is a poor barometer for performance. I tend to leave early if I'm losing and stay when I'm winning, so it's possible I have more losing sessions but have a few monster winning sessions to offset.
Agreed. Win % is a very arbitrary stat imo.

I could quite easily attain a win % of 90%+ if that was my only goal. Just leave every session when I'm up $10 lol
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Old 01-04-2017, 02:00 PM   #17514
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While Donkey's results are amazing, I don't doubt them.

Sounds like his 1/3 NL game allows him to BI fairly deep.

Sounds like he has awesome table/selection opportunities. I'm pretty sure if all I ever did was play at the most awesome table I've ever played at that my winrate would be 2x what it is (but table selection in my room isn't remotely what it once was).

Also, his overall hours are still a pretty lol ~900 hours. My guess is that far and away the best method to produce awesome results is to play an aggro laggy style *and* run good. Not saying that's all he's doing, but there's at least a *chance* that is making up some of it.

Anyways, I certainly hope he keeps posting his results, it would be interesting to see if he can maintain after ~3000 hours, etc.

Ggoodluck!G
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Old 01-04-2017, 02:04 PM   #17515
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Originally Posted by MIB211 View Post
Also, in the last session of the year someone shipped me $1,000 in a pot where I had the nuts and they misread their hand.
Lol, awesome!

Gwait,howcanyouhavethenutflushifIhavethenutflu-oh,GODDAMNIT!G
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Old 01-04-2017, 02:08 PM   #17516
MIB211
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Lol, awesome!

Gwait,howcanyouhavethenutflushifIhavethenutflu-oh,GODDAMNIT!G
Deep-stack 1/2, I have $1000 V covers. I had JT on a Q958A board with no flush draw. River he lead $50, I raised to $150, he re-raised to $250, I shrug-shoved. He snapped so I was certain we were chopping. I show JT, he confidently shows KT! He looked absolutely sick when he realized how much I had behind...

It's funny, but I almost was going to just flat the last bet, because we were so clearly chopping, but a few weeks earlier in a much smaller pot someone half-angled me into thinking we were chopping so I wouldn't raise in a similar spot, and I had learned my lesson.
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Old 01-04-2017, 02:11 PM   #17517
PLBlow
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Here's my 2016 results:

Total: $80,239 1254 hours $63.95/hr

No limit (1/2 and 2/5): $10,911 132 hours $82.55/hr

Limit (20/40): $33,965 503 hours $67.53/hr

PLO (mostly 5/5): $33,992 274 hours $127.92/hr

Omaha8 (20/40): $1890 272 hours $6.93/hr






Last edited by PLBlow; 01-04-2017 at 02:13 PM. Reason: images not showing up
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Old 01-04-2017, 02:15 PM   #17518
jc315
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Fantastic start!

Table selection will most likely have the single biggest affect on your lifetime rate, imo.

Ggoodluck!G
thank you sir. your 1000 hours thread helped me a lot when i was learning pre-flop ranges and basic solid strategy. you taught me not to open A6o UTG.
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Old 01-04-2017, 02:19 PM   #17519
gobbledygeek
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Originally Posted by jc315 View Post
thank you sir. your 1000 hours thread helped me a lot when i was learning pre-flop ranges and basic solid strategy. you taught me not to open A6o UTG.
Lol!

You might want to skip ahead to the 3000 hour mark in that thread cuz the last 1000 hours haven't went as swimmingly as the first 2000 hours.

Ggoodluck!G
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Old 01-04-2017, 02:19 PM   #17520
jc315
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie View Post
I didn't have a losing year but I came damn close! I managed to snatch profit from the jaws of loss.

1st full year playing $2/5 and I screwed the pooch after being up 5k over my first 50 hours. Lots of leveling myself into bad call offs, spew, etc. Went on an 8k downswing at one point. Got some good advice, righted the ship and got back on track. Tracking at 5.5 bb over the last 250 hours or so. (In b4 lolsamplesize)

Goals for 2017 are to play 450-500 hours, play some PLO when it looks good, and learn some other variants. My casino opened a new swanky card room. With it comes a dealer pool that's been trained to deal all sorts of games like badugi and triple draw. I'd like to be there when those games go off and not be a total fish doing it.





nice post. takes a lot to post results when you had a down year and also to admit that you played bad for stretches (instead of solely blaming variance). way to grind it out and hope 2017 goes better.
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Old 01-04-2017, 02:54 PM   #17521
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
While Donkey's results are amazing, I don't doubt them.

Sounds like his 1/3 NL game allows him to BI fairly deep.

Sounds like he has awesome table/selection opportunities. I'm pretty sure if all I ever did was play at the most awesome table I've ever played at that my winrate would be 2x what it is (but table selection in my room isn't remotely what it once was).

Also, his overall hours are still a pretty lol ~900 hours. My guess is that far and away the best method to produce awesome results is to play an aggro laggy style *and* run good. Not saying that's all he's doing, but there's at least a *chance* that is making up some of it.

Anyways, I certainly hope he keeps posting his results, it would be interesting to see if he can maintain after ~3000 hours, etc.

Ggoodluck!G
+1 and +1
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Old 01-04-2017, 02:56 PM   #17522
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PLBlow View Post
Here's my 2016 results:

Total: $80,239 1254 hours $63.95/hr

No limit (1/2 and 2/5): $10,911 132 hours $82.55/hr

Limit (20/40): $33,965 503 hours $67.53/hr

PLO (mostly 5/5): $33,992 274 hours $127.92/hr

Omaha8 (20/40): $1890 272 hours $6.93/hr
Sick. What happened with that ~$20k spike?
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Old 01-04-2017, 03:00 PM   #17523
PLBlow
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
Sick. What happened with that ~$20k spike?
a night of PLO in God mode
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Old 01-04-2017, 03:27 PM   #17524
bip!
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
Nice results people!

So basically I'm the only one prepared to post about a losing year?

Or am I the only non Crusher on here?


My first half of the year consisted of wondering what to do with all the cash... my second half of the year answered that question
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Old 01-04-2017, 03:44 PM   #17525
Avaritia
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I also had a losing year but played less than 300 hours and tried some new things. They did not work.
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