Quote:
Originally Posted by turtle82
Never said that it was, and also not hating at all. Only offered my opinion that it was a bad bet for you if all things assumed were true, and that going by results instead of expectation is a bit silly
Just based on math... lets assume our winrate at 1/2 is 30/hr overall and at 2/5 its 45/hr as you said.
We take the same bet for 2 months and play 160 hours each.
First month we win at 35/hr for a total net of 7100 (5600+1500). Second month we win at 25/hr for a total net of 3500 (4000-500). thats 10600 expected
Now take 320 hours at 45/hr at 2/5 and thats 14,400 expected
Something around 8:1 would have been the odds to make it worth it imo
OK, that math makes sense if I was comparing the two options long term but I wasnt. I also wasnt doing this solely for the money. I was doing it to prove a point and because like I said in my last post, I was on a down swing and the timing was perfect.
Im confidant that my long term win rate at 1/2 would be in the neighborhood of $30/hr. Possibly a bit more so I was confidant that I would win the bet if I ran average which would put me close to my 2/5 win rate so I didnt feel like I was giving up any potential profit from playing lower.
As far as the bet goes, my plan was to grind a ton of hours at the beginning and see where I was which gave me a big advantage. I could adjust from there as far as volume. A normal month for me is about 125 hours. If after a while if it was obvious I wasn't going to break $30/hr I could forfeit the bet and go back and play 2/5 (if I was playing well and couldn't hit $30/hr because I overestimated what is possible).
What happened was I was crushing and I knew I would win the bet. I couldve quit at my normal 125 hours or so and ended up with a really good month that would've been somewhere above an average 2/5 month for me profit wise including the $1500 from the bet. However, I just kept playing 1/2 for a couple reasons. The max buy in is $300 (150BBs) and I wanted to practice playing deep stacked, I was LAGging it up and having fun and I had a renewed focus since I had no reads on anyone.
Hopefully, the experience has improved my 2/5 game and if so the bet was all that more beneficial.