FWIW, I want to note once again that some of the poker tracking apps give wrong standard deviation numbers.

For example, Poker Income gives me standard deviation in the low fourties whereas RunGood gives me a standard deviation between 90 and 100 BB/hr.

This in turn changes drastically the results of the confidence interval from 2.9BB to 7BB.

I did try to find my standard deviation on excel and I think Poker Income is the one doing the right calculation. I could be wrong though.

90-100 seems much more standard. Very few of the folks ITT who have converted sdev/session into sdev/hr via crunching the numbers (vs just taking what the app says as gospel) have reported sdev <60bbs/hr. Like three of us, IIRC, and all three were upper 50s.

100bbs/hr, OTOH, seems pretty standard.

my Poker Income has it at 112

Let me tell you what I did on excel.

1. I took the session profit from 48 sessions.

2. I then took the duration of each session and converted it into a decimal form. So for example a session of 11 hours 56 minutes was converted to 11.933.

3. I then divided each session's profit by the duration so I found the hourly profit of each session.

4. I then calculated the sum of the individual profit and came up with a mean profit for all sessions.

5. I then subtracted the mean from each hourly session profit.

6. I squared the resulting number.

7. Then I divided the resulting number by the number of sessions.

8. I then got the square root of that number.

That final number is supposed to be the standard hourly deviation. Using that method, I found a standard deviation of 43 BB, whereas poker income gives me 42.85 for the same sample. Runggood gives me a standard deviation of 95.21.

What did I do wrong?

Regardless. Can we determine which poker tracking app does it right? Can someone do the proper calculation on excel and compare with the number he gets on his poker app?

Difference between bb and BB?

Big Blind as position vs big blinds as quantifier.

The main difference is that "BB" tilts me every time I see it in a NL forum.

"bb" on the other hand has no such tilting effect.

.. probably because it actually means "big blind" and exists in NL.

^ to address this we took a survey of 2+2ers and they all assured us they are running below EV... often accompanied by a story about "that time I got 2 outed in a big pot".

You can't convert the individual results to per hour and treat that as normalized.

Later I will post how to do this in excel. It is simpler, but maybe not intuitive.

Theres no such thing as losing (or break even) poker players. Simply those who are running good and those who are running bad

Also, so can anybody else confirm that the poker income app has correct stddev?

About 2 months ago I sent all my numbers to Bip! and he confirmed that my StnDev number was correct. I use Run Good.

:')

I think runbad is a broader problem than 2+2.

Casino regs all run super unlucky as well, like every one of them I ask or in fact don't ask, is keen to relay their sob story about how bad they run.

unless of course, they posted higher win rates than anybody else, in which case 2+2ers assured them that they were either lying or were running unsustainably well and that a fall was right around the corner

161 hrs since the 9th

Not really.
I didn't profit those amounts ($2,700) I won pots of that amount.
Which means that I only profited $1,350 (really closer to $1,700 since some of them were not heads up pots, but whatever). So if I don't play them, I'm down $1,700 and if I lose them I'm down $2,700.

This is likely true as a general idea (but obv lol at people making up statistics on the spot with little to go on really).
But since the average poster on 2+2 is likely better than the average non-poster it is hard to really judge where we may lie in the poker spectrum and how many of us should be making XXbb/hour.

This is only true if we expect that the population is not normally distributed.
Otherwise it is by definition that the two results (+14bb/hour and +0bb/hour) are equally likely.

^^^
Re: pot vs profit. Agreed.

I am curious how run bad effects play styles. I ran terrible for premium hands around the time I was really moving into a profitable expected WR (probably 500ish key hours)--this forced me to work on storytelling, bluffing, long-shot+small-risk hands, and other ways of gaining EV which is now an integral part of how I play.

I am curious if people think that how you ran while learning has affected your style of play at all? I wonder if it is something that solid tags and rocks even consider?


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All the time, but that's more psychology than WR related.

Those aren't separate concerns when considering winning at lolLivePoker


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So you worked on getting better...

Better is broad. I worked on a skillset that I know a number of winning players/styles never develop or need to. It's the a style/skillset that is the antipathy of the MpethyBridge TAG approach.

It led me down the road of exploitative play as opposed to fundamental play.

And I attribute that move in direct relation to a stretch of poker where fundamental TAG play kept kicking my nuts in.


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hijacking thread somewhat for official 2016 year end accounting.

I played the lowest amount of hrs I've done in 10 years:

237 hrs played: 35 (1/2), 17 (1/3), 164 (2/5), 21 (misc plo 1/2 to 5/5)

-3400 won

I was essentially breaking even on the year until I lost an +800bb pot @2/5 yesterday, AI otf set vs Vs nfd (having had $40 in the middle otf).

Here's what's kind of sick and why it's important to remember sample sizes need to be significant:

I lost 4 other pots of +500bb this year at nlhe. (Full discl: I won one 600bb pot at 5/5 plo). All of which were at least 75/25, as in the above.

If I had grinded another 800hrs like I used to in the early 2010s then I'd be looking at at expected wr of about 35/hr*800=24,400, from which -3600=about 20k on the year.

My room recently restructured their drop and promotions to $5+2. Since I'm probably paying a larger share of rake due to lagging it up (winning more non sd pots), I estimate that 1000hrs of rake = 14k.

So now I'm making 10k on 1k hrs, playing a mix of stakes for about $10/hr.

Now that I've transitioned out of somewhat fuller time play to rec hours, I see that I'll be needing several years to iron out dips like 2016. It feels oddly demoralizing and at the same time, liberating, insofar as I know whatever my expectation is, it won't be realized on timescales that are worth paying attention to in the manner I've been accustomed (taking stock every few months).

With the rake restructure, I'm even more firmly committed to playing essentially for fun.

What's your year been like?

Why do you substract rake from expected profit? Expected WR already takes rake into account. If your room adds extra money for jackpot, the extra you pay, you should expect to get back in promotion money.

Ended the year on a high note. Pretty happy with results since getting back into playing live more regularly in July, but ~150 hours is nothing obv. Hoping to get close to 250 hours in next year