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12-27-2016, 02:49 PM   #17326
Tbirdx24
old hand

Join Date: May 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 1,630
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Garick Or you could just look at the post above yours. ��
Lol we must have posted at the same time. Thank you very much.

12-27-2016, 03:21 PM   #17327
homerdash
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: desert
Posts: 6,062
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Garick Ok, I found it and it's probably worth posting again. To find the 95% confidence level on your bounds related to observed winrate: Multiply your hourly standard deviation by 2 and then divide the result by the square root of your number of hours. For short: Hourly SDev*2 / sqrt of hours As you can see, increased hours will tighten the heck out of these bounds, especially over the first couple hundred hours. To use, combine with observed winrate. So if observed winrate is 7bbs/hr and your bounds are +/- 6.3bbs/hr, you can be 95% confident that you are a winning player, even though your true winrate could be as low as .7bbs/hr.

conversely, can my true winrate be as high as 13-14bb/hr?

12-27-2016, 03:25 PM   #17328
johnny_on_the_spot
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Garick Ok, I found it and it's probably worth posting again. To find the 95% confidence level on your bounds related to observed winrate: Multiply your hourly standard deviation by 2 and then divide the result by the square root of your number of hours. For short: Hourly SDev*2 / sqrt of hours As you can see, increased hours will tighten the heck out of these bounds, especially over the first couple hundred hours. To use, combine with observed winrate. So if observed winrate is 7bbs/hr and your bounds are +/- 6.3bbs/hr, you can be 95% confident that you are a winning player, even though your true winrate could be as low as .7bbs/hr.

Is there a reason why we're using 2 and not 1.96 as our z value? I get that they're practically the same and that 2 is "easier" than 1.96, but we're also calcing the square root of a random number, so it's not like anyone is doing this without a calculator...

12-27-2016, 04:35 PM   #17329
Garick
Oberbiergenießer

Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Do you even math, bruh?
Posts: 24,603
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by homerdash conversely, can my true winrate be as high as 13-14bb/hr?
Exactly.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by johnny_on_the_spot Is there a reason why we're using 2 and not 1.96 as our z value? I get that they're practically the same and that 2 is "easier" than 1.96, but we're also calcing the square root of a random number, so it's not like anyone is doing this without a calculator...
IDK. I just stole the formula from bip! Bip!?

 12-27-2016, 04:45 PM #17330 bip! Slow Pony     Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: not on urban dictionary... Posts: 13,669 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances 2 was just an approximation. 1.96 if you want to be exact.
12-27-2016, 04:56 PM   #17331
MIB211
veteran

Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,011
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by homerdash conversely, can my true winrate be as high as 13-14bb/hr?
I don't know the statistical answer here, but my strong suspicion is that if you have someone who's winning 7 bbs/hour with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 7bb/hour, it's significantly more likely that they're a break even player than they're winning 14bb/hour. This is an application of Bayes theorem and reversion to the mean. Basically, you have a ton of observed break even players, and very, very few 14bb/hour crushers. So, much more likely that any given person who's a 7bb/hour winner is running good than bad.

 12-27-2016, 05:31 PM #17332 OvertlySexual old hand     Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 1,518 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances FWIW, I want to note once again that some of the poker tracking apps give wrong standard deviation numbers. For example, Poker Income gives me standard deviation in the low fourties whereas RunGood gives me a standard deviation between 90 and 100 BB/hr. This in turn changes drastically the results of the confidence interval from 2.9BB to 7BB. I did try to find my standard deviation on excel and I think Poker Income is the one doing the right calculation. I could be wrong though.
 12-27-2016, 05:48 PM #17333 Garick Oberbiergenießer     Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Do you even math, bruh? Posts: 24,603 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances 90-100 seems much more standard. Very few of the folks ITT who have converted sdev/session into sdev/hr via crunching the numbers (vs just taking what the app says as gospel) have reported sdev <60bbs/hr. Like three of us, IIRC, and all three were upper 50s. 100bbs/hr, OTOH, seems pretty standard. Last edited by Garick; 12-29-2016 at 09:13 AM. Reason: typo
 12-27-2016, 05:59 PM #17334 homerdash banned     Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: desert Posts: 6,062 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances my Poker Income has it at 112
 12-27-2016, 06:46 PM #17335 OvertlySexual old hand     Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 1,518 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Let me tell you what I did on excel. 1. I took the session profit from 48 sessions. 2. I then took the duration of each session and converted it into a decimal form. So for example a session of 11 hours 56 minutes was converted to 11.933. 3. I then divided each session's profit by the duration so I found the hourly profit of each session. 4. I then calculated the sum of the individual profit and came up with a mean profit for all sessions. 5. I then subtracted the mean from each hourly session profit. 6. I squared the resulting number. 7. Then I divided the resulting number by the number of sessions. 8. I then got the square root of that number. That final number is supposed to be the standard hourly deviation. Using that method, I found a standard deviation of 43 BB, whereas poker income gives me 42.85 for the same sample. Runggood gives me a standard deviation of 95.21. What did I do wrong? Regardless. Can we determine which poker tracking app does it right? Can someone do the proper calculation on excel and compare with the number he gets on his poker app?
 12-27-2016, 06:54 PM #17336 feel wrath The Situation     Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: lost on the turn Posts: 23,866 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Difference between bb and BB?
 12-27-2016, 07:13 PM #17337 Sneaky Pete banned   Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 353 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Big Blind as position vs big blinds as quantifier.
12-27-2016, 08:43 PM   #17338
bip!
Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by feel wrath Difference between bb and BB?

The main difference is that "BB" tilts me every time I see it in a NL forum.

"bb" on the other hand has no such tilting effect.

.. probably because it actually means "big blind" and exists in NL.

12-27-2016, 08:54 PM   #17339
bip!
Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MIB211 I don't know the statistical answer here, but my strong suspicion is that if you have someone who's winning 7 bbs/hour with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 7bb/hour, it's significantly more likely that they're a break even player than they're winning 14bb/hour. This is an application of Bayes theorem and reversion to the mean. Basically, you have a ton of observed break even players, and very, very few 14bb/hour crushers. So, much more likely that any given person who's a 7bb/hour winner is running good than bad.

^ to address this we took a survey of 2+2ers and they all assured us they are running below EV... often accompanied by a story about "that time I got 2 outed in a big pot".

12-27-2016, 08:57 PM   #17340
bip!
Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,669
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by OvertlySexual Let me tell you what I did on excel. 1. I took the session profit from 48 sessions. 2. I then took the duration of each session and converted it into a decimal form. So for example a session of 11 hours 56 minutes was converted to 11.933. 3. I then divided each session's profit by the duration so I found the hourly profit of each session. 4. I then calculated the sum of the individual profit and came up with a mean profit for all sessions. 5. I then subtracted the mean from each hourly session profit. 6. I squared the resulting number. 7. Then I divided the resulting number by the number of sessions. 8. I then got the square root of that number. That final number is supposed to be the standard hourly deviation. Using that method, I found a standard deviation of 43 BB, whereas poker income gives me 42.85 for the same sample. Runggood gives me a standard deviation of 95.21. What did I do wrong? Regardless. Can we determine which poker tracking app does it right? Can someone do the proper calculation on excel and compare with the number he gets on his poker app?

You can't convert the individual results to per hour and treat that as normalized.

Later I will post how to do this in excel. It is simpler, but maybe not intuitive.

 12-27-2016, 09:04 PM #17341 YGOchamp old hand   Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 1,517 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Theres no such thing as losing (or break even) poker players. Simply those who are running good and those who are running bad Also, so can anybody else confirm that the poker income app has correct stddev?
12-27-2016, 11:35 PM   #17342
MikeStarr
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Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by OvertlySexual FWIW, I want to note once again that some of the poker tracking apps give wrong standard deviation numbers. For example, Poker Income gives me standard deviation in the low fourties whereas RunGood gives me a standard deviation between 90 and 100 BB/hr. This in turn changes drastically the results of the confidence interval from 2.9BB to 7BB. I did try to find my standard deviation on excel and I think Poker Income is the one doing the right calculation. I could be wrong though.
About 2 months ago I sent all my numbers to Bip! and he confirmed that my StnDev number was correct. I use Run Good.

12-27-2016, 11:50 PM   #17343
meale
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Join Date: May 2013
Location: Pattaya, Thailand
Posts: 9,840
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by YGOchamp Theres no such thing as losing (or break even) poker players. Simply those who are running good and those who are running bad
:')

12-28-2016, 05:27 AM   #17344
WereBeer
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Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 9,650
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by bip! ^ to address this we took a survey of 2+2ers and they all assured us they are running below EV

Casino regs all run super unlucky as well, like every one of them I ask or in fact don't ask, is keen to relay their sob story about how bad they run.

12-28-2016, 05:40 AM   #17345
feel wrath
The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: lost on the turn
Posts: 23,866
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by bip! ^ to address this we took a survey of 2+2ers and they all assured us they are running below EV... often accompanied by a story about "that time I got 2 outed in a big pot".
unless of course, they posted higher win rates than anybody else, in which case 2+2ers assured them that they were either lying or were running unsustainably well and that a fall was right around the corner

 12-28-2016, 05:41 AM #17346 VolumeKing adept   Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 729 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances 161 hrs since the 9th
12-28-2016, 01:52 PM   #17347
iraisetoomuch
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Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 34,453
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by cAmmAndo That's a \$5.40/hr bump yes compared to not playing those pots or running neutral but I think it's good to realize it's actually a \$10.80 swing in short term wr if you lose those pots.
Not really.
I didn't profit those amounts (\$2,700) I won pots of that amount.
Which means that I only profited \$1,350 (really closer to \$1,700 since some of them were not heads up pots, but whatever). So if I don't play them, I'm down \$1,700 and if I lose them I'm down \$2,700.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MikeStarr I wouldnt feel bad if you're not there. No matter what you see on 2+2 with people bragging about win rates, I would estimate that only 1-2% 2/5 players in the world are making that much. Being in the top 1-2% of anything is pretty impressive.
This is likely true as a general idea (but obv lol at people making up statistics on the spot with little to go on really).
But since the average poster on 2+2 is likely better than the average non-poster it is hard to really judge where we may lie in the poker spectrum and how many of us should be making XXbb/hour.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MIB211 I don't know the statistical answer here, but my strong suspicion is that if you have someone who's winning 7 bbs/hour with a 95% confidence interval of +/- 7bb/hour, it's significantly more likely that they're a break even player than they're winning 14bb/hour. This is an application of Bayes theorem and reversion to the mean. Basically, you have a ton of observed break even players, and very, very few 14bb/hour crushers. So, much more likely that any given person who's a 7bb/hour winner is running good than bad.
This is only true if we expect that the population is not normally distributed.
Otherwise it is by definition that the two results (+14bb/hour and +0bb/hour) are equally likely.

 12-28-2016, 04:15 PM #17348 cAmmAndo The Situation     Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: Philly Posts: 4,712 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ^^^ Re: pot vs profit. Agreed.
 12-28-2016, 04:24 PM #17349 Maskk veteran   Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: DC Area Posts: 2,083 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances I am curious how run bad effects play styles. I ran terrible for premium hands around the time I was really moving into a profitable expected WR (probably 500ish key hours)--this forced me to work on storytelling, bluffing, long-shot+small-risk hands, and other ways of gaining EV which is now an integral part of how I play. I am curious if people think that how you ran while learning has affected your style of play at all? I wonder if it is something that solid tags and rocks even consider? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 12-28-2016, 04:42 PM #17350 Sneaky Pete banned   Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 353 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances All the time, but that's more psychology than WR related.

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