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Old 12-26-2016, 12:22 PM   #17301
Tbirdx24
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thx for the feedback.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I play mostly 2/5. After running my mouth about how easy 1/2 is, Im currently in the middle of a prop bet and playing a lot of 1/2. I have direct experience in the two stakes right now and the differences between them and I will tell you that 1/2 is so much easier its hard to put into words.
Mike, I saw your prop bet thread, and agree. I used to play 2/5 back when I was good, and disagree with anyone who says 1/2 and 2/5 play the same.

I know that financially I can take a shot at 2/5, but that's not really my question. Trying to get a better sense of if my winrate and sample size at 1/2 alone indicates I should take a shot, not factoring in bankroll. And it sounds like my sample size isn't big enough. I thought the rule of thumb was 100 hours for live poker, but I guess I was wrong.
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Old 12-26-2016, 12:46 PM   #17302
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Originally Posted by Tbirdx24 View Post
Mike, I saw your prop bet thread, and agree. I used to play 2/5 back when I was good, and disagree with anyone who says 1/2 and 2/5 play the same.

I know that financially I can take a shot at 2/5, but that's not really my question. Trying to get a better sense of if my winrate and sample size at 1/2 alone indicates I should take a shot, not factoring in bankroll. And it sounds like my sample size isn't big enough. I thought the rule of thumb was 100 hours for live poker, but I guess I was wrong.
Well, it depends a lot on your local room and player pool how different the $1/2 and $2/5 games are. If it's the same guys in both they'll play more similarly than a room/town where there's a clear distinction.

100 hours is effectively nothing in live poker. Little more than noise from a pure results standpoint. You may have a good feel for the player pool and how well you can exploit them after that, but I wouldn't put much weight to any sample smaller than 500 hours. Then anything larger starts to take so long that the game conditions aren't comparable anymore.
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Old 12-26-2016, 08:17 PM   #17303
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Well, it depends a lot on your local room and player pool how different the $1/2 and $2/5 games are. If it's the same guys in both they'll play more similarly than a room/town where there's a clear distinction.

100 hours is effectively nothing in live poker. Little more than noise from a pure results standpoint. You may have a good feel for the player pool and how well you can exploit them after that, but I wouldn't put much weight to any sample smaller than 500 hours. Then anything larger starts to take so long that the game conditions aren't comparable anymore.
That depends how often you play. If you put in 125 hrs a month, you get 500 hrs in 4 months and the conditions are pretty much the same. Same regs every day.

If you play 10-30 hrs a month, then yeah, it could be 2 yrs later before you hit 500 hrs and who knows how much is changed by then.
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Old 12-26-2016, 10:44 PM   #17304
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That depends how often you play. If you put in 125 hrs a month, you get 500 hrs in 4 months and the conditions are pretty much the same. Same regs every day.



If you play 10-30 hrs a month, then yeah, it could be 2 yrs later before you hit 500 hrs and who knows how much is changed by then.


Still ignoring the level of variance in a 500 hour stretch whether over 2 months or 2 years. I think that was his point

But sure you are going to know ur player pool better in the first example you gave


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Old 12-26-2016, 11:07 PM   #17305
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In the last 500 hours I've won a $900 pot (at 1/2) a $1100 pot, and a $700 pot.
All 3 of these I was a ~coin flip to win.

So in 3 hands I've won enough money to bump up my short term win rate by over $5 per hour. Anyone claiming that 500 hour samples are meaningful are just kidding them selves.
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Old 12-26-2016, 11:17 PM   #17306
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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
In the last 500 hours I've won a $900 pot (at 1/2) a $1100 pot, and a $700 pot.
All 3 of these I was a ~coin flip to win.

So in 3 hands I've won enough money to bump up my short term win rate by over $5 per hour. Anyone claiming that 500 hour samples are meaningful are just kidding them selves.
Well if you are playing uncapped games or even if not, if you are getting yourself into coin flips for 200-250BBs each, then yeah, your variance is going to be a lot higher and you will need a lot bigger sample size.

In 1400 hrs of 2/5, Ive played 1 pot that was 200BBs each.
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Old 12-26-2016, 11:49 PM   #17307
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Well if you are playing uncapped games or even if not, if you are getting yourself into coin flips for 200-250BBs each, then yeah, your variance is going to be a lot higher and you will need a lot bigger sample size.

In 1400 hrs of 2/5, Ive played 1 pot that was 200BBs each.
that is so sad. Big pots are part of the joy of live poker! If you've never check/jammed $1100 into a $1000 pot, you haven't lived.
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Old 12-27-2016, 12:22 AM   #17308
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
In the last 500 hours I've won a $900 pot (at 1/2) a $1100 pot, and a $700 pot.
All 3 of these I was a ~coin flip to win.

So in 3 hands I've won enough money to bump up my short term win rate by over $5 per hour. Anyone claiming that 500 hour samples are meaningful are just kidding them selves.
Given this is the case in live poker, I think the question should therefore be "are you a winning player or not?", and if your winrate is $20/hr over 500 hours (without doing the math) I think it's pretty safe to say you are a winner with like 99.5% confidence.

Does anyone know how many hours puts you above 95% confidence? Would be really curious to know what it is.
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Old 12-27-2016, 12:37 AM   #17309
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It depends on your observed Winrates and standard deviation. I've seen one player have a 95% confidence that he's a winner after 170 hours. His 95% confidence win rate was at least 30 cents an hour, up to as much as $72 per hour. Huge bounds, but all of them positive.
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Old 12-27-2016, 12:42 AM   #17310
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It depends on your observed Winrates and standard deviation. I've seen one player have a 95% confidence that he's a winner after 170 hours. His 95% confidence win rate was at least 30 cents an hour, up to as much as $72 per hour. Huge bounds, but all of them positive.
This seems very specific, is there a calculator/formula for this that I can use? Thanks!
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Old 12-27-2016, 01:58 AM   #17311
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
In 1400 hrs of 2/5, Ive played 1 pot that was 200BBs each.
Really? This seems absurdly low..Is this just talking about flips or pots in general? I assume this is because you buy in short?

I've gotten in 200bb plenty of times in only 400 hours of 2/5 (but I buy in for 200bb).
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Old 12-27-2016, 02:00 AM   #17312
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I just want to chime in and say that making 35hr at 2/5 over any decent sample takes work. I have been ignorant to how difficult it actually is.
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Old 12-27-2016, 03:54 AM   #17313
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Curious why you thought it was easier in the first place.
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Old 12-27-2016, 04:01 AM   #17314
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overestimation of skill/ thinking it is easy to recreate High winrates because certain posters regularly do
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Old 12-27-2016, 09:28 AM   #17315
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Originally Posted by VolumeKing View Post
I just want to chime in and say that making 35hr at 2/5 over any decent sample takes work. I have been ignorant to how difficult it actually is.

What do you think you are doing wrong?

Max/Min BI is really important here. If your game is capped at 200/300 it will be very hard, 500 doable, 1k+ and you should be aiming higher.
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Old 12-27-2016, 09:30 AM   #17316
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Well if you are playing uncapped games or even if not, if you are getting yourself into coin flips for 200-250BBs each, then yeah, your variance is going to be a lot higher and you will need a lot bigger sample size.



In 1400 hrs of 2/5, Ive played 1 pot that was 200BBs each.

Serious Q:
How in the world are you basically never playing 400bb pots?

At 600 max buy 2-5, I find myself in a 400+bb pot probably once every 4-5 hours. Generally happens one of two ways: a cooler style hand gets out of control (2 pair vs set, straight v set), or a whale-maniac gets 200bb in there in some ******ed fashion that if I posted the hand in a 2+2 thread, I'd have half the world telling me to fold 1 (usually over the board) pair, followed by people saying the hand should be in bbv.

In 200bb cap 2-5 that frequency of big hands increase slightly (increases more in the right lineup).


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Last edited by Maskk; 12-27-2016 at 09:35 AM.
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Old 12-27-2016, 09:34 AM   #17317
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
In the last 500 hours I've won a $900 pot (at 1/2) a $1100 pot, and a $700 pot.
All 3 of these I was a ~coin flip to win.

So in 3 hands I've won enough money to bump up my short term win rate by over $5 per hour. Anyone claiming that 500 hour samples are meaningful are just kidding them selves.

That's a $5.40/hr bump yes compared to not playing those pots or running neutral but I think it's good to realize it's actually a $10.80 swing in short term wr if you lose those pots.
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Old 12-27-2016, 09:46 AM   #17318
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Originally Posted by Maskk View Post
Serious Q:
How in the world are you basically never playing 400bb pots?

At 600 max buy 2-5, I find myself in a 400+bb pot probably once every 4-5 hours. Generally happens one of two ways: a cooler style hand gets out of control (2 pair vs set, straight v set), or a whale-maniac gets 200bb in there in some ******ed fashion that if I posted the hand in a 2+2 thread, I'd have half the world telling me to fold 1 (usually over the board) pair, followed by people saying the hand should be in bbv.

In 200bb cap 2-5 that frequency of big hands increase slightly (increases more in the right lineup).


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Ill list a few reasons

1) Max buy in is $500 (100BBs)
2) I normally buy in for $300 although most sessions Im at or over $500 at least 1/2 the session. Either by winning or by topping up if I see some fish with more chips than me.
3) Ive counted several times and the avg buy in when a new table starts is about $350.
4) I play 80% during the daytime where there are very few maniacs playing huge pots
5) I would bet that no more than 10% of the time is there two or more 200BB stacks on the table at the same time during the daytime.
6) I play a very low variance style. Not on purpose. I didnt even know it was low variance until I compared to others here.
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Old 12-27-2016, 09:49 AM   #17319
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Originally Posted by VolumeKing View Post
I just want to chime in and say that making 35hr at 2/5 over any decent sample takes work. I have been ignorant to how difficult it actually is.
I wouldnt feel bad if you're not there. No matter what you see on 2+2 with people bragging about win rates, I would estimate that only 1-2% 2/5 players in the world are making that much. Being in the top 1-2% of anything is pretty impressive.
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Old 12-27-2016, 10:09 AM   #17320
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Ill list a few reasons



1) Max buy in is $500 (100BBs)

2) I normally buy in for $300 although most sessions Im at or over $500 at least 1/2 the session. Either by winning or by topping up if I see some fish with more chips than me.

3) Ive counted several times and the avg buy in when a new table starts is about $350.

4) I play 80% during the daytime where there are very few maniacs playing huge pots

5) I would bet that no more than 10% of the time is there two or more 200BB stacks on the table at the same time during the daytime.

6) I play a very low variance style. Not on purpose. I didnt even know it was low variance until I compared to others here.


That makes sense
I try to play at least 150effective deep if I can help it (sometimes I top up over 100bb, sue me). I prefer to play nights/weekends. And my game is usually medium-to-high variance. I also will table change towards big stacks if multiple tables are running.

But the 300 starting stack is probably the biggest reason IMHO. You need to more than triple up before playing a 400bb pot, and have a villain do the same. At a day game that's lol.

Whereas if I had my druthers, I could play one starting at jump street, or at most need one double to get there.

Crazy to think just how much game selection (wrt time and location) can drastically chains expectations.






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Old 12-27-2016, 11:25 AM   #17321
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Originally Posted by Tbirdx24 View Post
This seems very specific, is there a calculator/formula for this that I can use? Thanks!
Yes. It's been posted ITT a few times. I'm on my phone, or I'd give you a link. Search this thread for a post by Bip! With the word "formula" in it.
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Old 12-27-2016, 11:36 AM   #17322
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After Beginning on the Ninth, I have 153 hrs this month and five more days to grind, should be able to snag 200 or very close to it
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Old 12-27-2016, 11:44 AM   #17323
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Ok, I found it and it's probably worth posting again. To find the 95% confidence level on your bounds related to observed winrate:
Multiply your hourly standard deviation by 2 and then divide the result by the square root of your number of hours. For short: Hourly SDev*2 / sqrt of hours

As you can see, increased hours will tighten the heck out of these bounds, especially over the first couple hundred hours.

To use, combine with observed winrate. So if observed winrate is 7bbs/hr and your bounds are +/- 6.3bbs/hr, you can be 95% confident that you are a winning player, even though your true winrate could be as low as .7bbs/hr.
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Old 12-27-2016, 11:45 AM   #17324
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Yes. It's been posted ITT a few times. I'm on my phone, or I'd give you a link. Search this thread for a post by Bip! With the word "formula" in it.
Thanks! Unfortunately no posts by him ITT with "formula" that actually has the formula. I just PMed him though.
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Old 12-27-2016, 01:48 PM   #17325
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Or you could just look at the post above yours. ��
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