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Old 12-20-2016, 09:02 PM   #17151
RarocASP
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've seen a lot of discussion of winrates, but very little quantifying variance (or standard deviation) for live games.

I'm a recreational player who likes to take the game seriously. Playing mostly 1-2nl and 1-3nl I have a winrate of about $14/hr over the last 1,100 hours. However, I play a pretty LAGgy style and my standard deviation per hour floats between $175 and $200 per hour. Is this normal, high, way high? Seems high as a 95% confidence interval would be about $28k wide over that same 1,100 hours (back of the envelope so could be off).

Anyone else care to share theirs to help frame where I sit in that spectrum? Thank you.
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Old 12-20-2016, 09:33 PM   #17152
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

There's a good discussion of standard deviation ITT, but I don't remember exactly when. Let me do a quick search and I'll add some links.

OK, post search edit... The really good math discussion starts here. As for Sdevs reported ITT, they range from about 55bbs/hr to 120bbs/hr among winners over a decent (700hours-2,000hr) sample size. Yours seems pretty normal to me.

Look at your 95% confidence interval as +/-Xbbs/hr over your observed winrate, and you can compare with those posting in the discussion linked above.

Last edited by Garick; 12-20-2016 at 09:45 PM. Reason: post search
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Old 12-20-2016, 09:51 PM   #17153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick View Post
There's a good discussion of standard deviation ITT, but I don't remember exactly when. Let me do a quick search and I'll add some links.

OK, post search edit... The really good math discussion starts here. As for Sdevs reported ITT, they range from about 55bbs/hr to 120bbs/hr among winners over a decent (700hours-2,000hr) sample size. Yours seems pretty normal to me.

Look at your 95% confidence interval as +/-Xbbs/hr over your observed winrate, and you can compare with those posting in the discussion linked above.
Excellent! Thank you very much!!
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Old 12-20-2016, 10:44 PM   #17154
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2016 was the variance year of hell for me personally. I'm up slightly more YTD than 2015 but on 3x the volume with most of my winnings coming early on at 2/5 and 10/10 followed by an extremely lengthy "breakeven" stretch marred by a horrible downswing in March (at 10/10 and 2/5) and most recently a lengthy slow bleed downward (after dropping stakes post-March for proper BRM) as I continue to play down stakes.

If I had to estimate I think I am running somewhere around >2 SD's below EV but it's so hard to analyze objectively with live poker. But with nearly 3000 hours of live poker under my belt I feel pretty confident categorizing stretches of my career as running "average," "good," "hot," and what I can only classify my last 1750 hours as "worse than you ever thought possible and depressing enough to make you reconsider your life choices."

So yah, hope that cheered you guys up.
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Old 12-21-2016, 01:52 AM   #17155
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
As for Sdevs reported ITT, they range from about 55bbs/hr to 120bbs/hr among winners over a decent (700hours-2,000hr) sample size.
Seems way off? I got told I should expect a 200bb+/hr stdev in 1-2-2-5 type games. Although I do think that is too high considering the online equivalent is like 70ish. Definitely not reopening this can of worms though.
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Old 12-21-2016, 02:09 AM   #17156
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Is this big blind or big bet STDV?

My STDV is 167 big bets/hour, and $801/hr
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Old 12-21-2016, 02:14 AM   #17157
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
2016 was the variance year of hell for me personally. I'm up slightly more YTD than 2015 but on 3x the volume with most of my winnings coming early on at 2/5 and 10/10 followed by an extremely lengthy "breakeven" stretch marred by a horrible downswing in March (at 10/10 and 2/5) and most recently a lengthy slow bleed downward (after dropping stakes post-March for proper BRM) as I continue to play down stakes.

If I had to estimate I think I am running somewhere around >2 SD's below EV but it's so hard to analyze objectively with live poker. But with nearly 3000 hours of live poker under my belt I feel pretty confident categorizing stretches of my career as running "average," "good," "hot," and what I can only classify my last 1750 hours as "worse than you ever thought possible and depressing enough to make you reconsider your life choices."

So yah, hope that cheered you guys up.
If 1750 of 3000 hours is described as running horribad, do you think maybe it isn't runbad?
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Old 12-21-2016, 02:18 AM   #17158
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If 1750 of 3000 hours is described as running horribad, do you think maybe it isn't runbad?
Yah I feel pretty confident about it. I also feel that 3000 hours is an incredibly small sample size in the grand scheme of things, especially for someone who plays fairly tight preflop.
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Old 12-21-2016, 02:21 AM   #17159
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Curious why you added that caveat?
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Old 12-21-2016, 03:20 AM   #17160
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Curious why you added that caveat?
Because playing tight preflop is typically going to lower your stdev.
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Old 12-21-2016, 03:25 AM   #17161
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Because playing tight preflop is typically going to lower your stdev.
How is playing tight going to lower stdev? Are you saying that tight players have smaller swings?

I thought we debunked that non-sense ages ago...
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Old 12-21-2016, 03:25 AM   #17162
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Because live poker is incredibly slow and playing less than 20% of hands means I've only VPIP'd around 21,000 hands which is a fairly trivial sample size (as I'm sure most online players would attest). The difference between playing 20% and 30% of hands over my sample size is about 10,500 hands or a 50% increase.

If I was guilty of being too naive wrt variance in 2015, 2016 was the year of growing up and learning how difficult poker really is to consistently win day in and day out without losing months and prolonged dry spells. 2016 taught me how to manage a BR and swallow my ego and drop down in stakes to minimize the damage, continue to earn and most importantly protect my BR.

I truly feel the year I had would be enough to break most aspiring pros either due to tilt, not managing their BR, not dropping down in stakes or not having a sufficient life roll to weather the storm. While I was too naive and jumped the gun in deciding to go pro, I also made sure I was financially secure to ride out a 2-3 year break even stretch while minimizing my expenses to barebones levels to give myself the longest runway possible.

And I still wake up every day ready to play another 8-12 hour session putting the past behind me and simply trying to make the best decisions possible to improve my situation going forward. Poker owes me nothing. This bad run has tested every ounce of my fiber and resolve but I routinely see my edge in the game and thus I continue to play.

Realistically - in the next year I may consider returning to full-time employment that is less arduous than my previous job because 80-100k salary / 30-40k poker is >>>>>>>>>>>>> 30-80k poker grind while losing all touch with reality/life/meaning/etc.
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Old 12-21-2016, 03:29 AM   #17163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Because live poker is incredibly slow and playing less than 20% of hands means I've only VPIP'd around 21,000 hands which is a fairly trivial sample size (as I'm sure most online players would attest). The difference between playing 20% and 30% of hands over my sample size is about 10,500 hands or a 50% increase.
Makes sense.

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Realistically - in the next year I may consider returning to full-time employment that is less arduous than my previous job because 80-100k salary / 30-40k poker is >>>>>>>>>>>>> 30-80k poker grind while losing all touch with reality/life/meaning/etc.
I would do one better and find a job that doesn't require full-time commitment.

40k salary + 40k poker would probably feel better than either of the two options.
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Old 12-21-2016, 03:57 AM   #17164
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Yah I feel pretty confident about it. I also feel that 3000 hours is an incredibly small sample size in the grand scheme of things, especially for someone who plays fairly tight preflop.


Yo Johnny. Sorry to hear bout the downswing and agree on your analysis of variance being effected by looseness (though IMHO not sure that it is 1 for 1 as you can VPIP more with lower raise frequency... if you stylistically chose to do so).

You say you play tight, and I'm guessing TAGGy? How weighted is your range/style to ABC value?


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Old 12-21-2016, 07:42 AM   #17165
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How do I calculate my stdev? I use excel to keep track of sessions with hours played and net won/loss. Would I use stdev function on each sessions hourly? and then how would that convert to bb/hr? Thanks!
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Old 12-21-2016, 08:14 AM   #17166
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Right now I'm using the stdev function for all my sessions hourly rates and it gives me 98.11, i play 1/2 btw
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Old 12-21-2016, 09:50 AM   #17167
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
because 80-100k salary / 30-40k poker is >>>>>>>>>>>>> 30-80k poker grind while losing all touch with reality/life/meaning/etc.
+1,000,000

tho I would fyp to $40- $60k salary and $15-$30k poker to be an average expectation
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Old 12-21-2016, 10:35 AM   #17168
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
And I still wake up every day ready to play another 8-12 hour session putting the past behind me and simply trying to make the best decisions possible to improve my situation going forward. Poker owes me nothing. This bad run has tested every ounce of my fiber and resolve but I routinely see my edge in the game and thus I continue to play.

Realistically - in the next year I may consider returning to full-time employment that is less arduous than my previous job because 80-100k salary / 30-40k poker is >>>>>>>>>>>>> 30-80k poker grind while losing all touch with reality/life/meaning/etc.
FWIW, playing poker professionally is pretty tough, but you can definitely make 200k+ USD/year consistently once you get the hang of it. The vast majority of people never get the hang of it though.
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Old 12-21-2016, 10:44 AM   #17169
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FWIW, playing poker professionally is pretty tough, but you can definitely make 200k+ USD/year consistently once you get the hang of it. The vast majority of people never get the hang of it though.
Unless you are playing 5/10 uncapped or 10/20+ on a regular basis making 200k year in year out sounds extremely difficult. If getting the hang of it = being one of the best players in the room at a high level I agree. Saying "get the hang of it" just sounds too casual.
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Old 12-21-2016, 11:07 AM   #17170
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I can attest from playing at the same tables with him/being consistently sent tons of hand histories from him that Johnny is on a pretty horrific stretch of negative variance.

While I will be the first to say we can never completely blame negative results on variance alone and that Johnny has obviously made lots of mistakes along the way (who hasn't, I spew my face off on a regular basis) and that there is plenty he can improve on in his game (this goes for me as well and literally everyone), he has been consistently getting money in good and losing, playing hands totally fine and running into coolers, etc and should be winning at a much higher rate than he has been this year.

I also think that getting consistently crushed by variance makes it extremely difficult to play optimally/stay positive/get in quality volume and I respect Johnny for grinding through it despite obviously taking a tough hit mentally wrt playing poker full time.
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Old 12-21-2016, 11:34 AM   #17171
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I'm going to end this year with about 25k in profit and 1100hrs. The largest pot I lost when ahead was $5k.

If I would've won the pot my profit would shoot up to 30k and make my hourly go from $22hr to $27.

And that's just one hand. Your all in hands really determine your winrates over the course of a year or 1k hours
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Old 12-21-2016, 11:40 AM   #17172
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I'm going to end this year with about 25k in profit and 1100hrs. The largest pot I lost when ahead was $5k.

If I would've won the pot my profit would shoot up to 30k and make my hourly go from $22hr to $27.

And that's just one hand. Your all in hands really determine your winrates over the course of a year or 1k hours
arent your monthly expenses like 2k/month?

lol you gatta put in more hours bruh, gatta build dat roll
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Old 12-21-2016, 11:45 AM   #17173
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FWIW, playing poker professionally is pretty tough, but you can definitely make 200k+ USD/year consistently once you get the hang of it. The vast majority of people never get the hang of it though.
NOPE, not in 2017. And I'm not afraid of responding this way even though the way you phrase your posts is basically saying "anyone that disagrees doesn't get it".

It's just not true. There are less than 10 people in South Florida that could make >$150k a year consistently. And I'd truthfully put it at 5 who regularly do.
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Old 12-21-2016, 12:08 PM   #17174
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

What if you lose a big pot where you got the money in good against his hand but bad against his range? What if you don't know?

What if you get a third of the money in good and two thirds in bad on the river?

What if you get a lot of money in good against a player's perceived range, but it turns out he's actually just been running really hot and making all his hands and you're drawing dead against his real range?

There's so much more to "variance" than just aiev that's often ignored and makes as much difference.
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Old 12-21-2016, 12:15 PM   #17175
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Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
What if you lose a big pot where you got the money in good against his hand but bad against his range? What if you don't know?

What if you get a third of the money in good and two thirds in bad on the river?

What if you get a lot of money in good against a player's perceived range, but it turns out he's actually just been running really hot and making all his hands and you're drawing dead against his real range?

There's so much more to "variance" than just aiev that's often ignored and makes as much difference.
Completely agree with this.

AIEV is such a small aspect of what variance encompasses as a whole, though it is really the only part we can realistically quantify hence why the stat is used at all -- though it is a highly overrated stat
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