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Old 12-18-2016, 12:41 PM   #17126
DeathCabForTootie
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by homerdash View Post
running at 0.085bb/hr over 164 hours in my normal game since September 1st, sustainable? with a few short wins at other casinos i'm at 2.6bb/hr over 187 hours.

to bring it on-topic, of the 80 sessions included in the above sample, i'm at 36/80 for 45% wins but i feel "bad" about at least 80% of the sessions (more like 95% in this sample) which obviously has to include some wins, and not just feeling badly about the lost hands within those winning sessions.
Could be variance, could be play bad. Post some HH's yo.
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Old 12-18-2016, 02:44 PM   #17127
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164 hours of B/E is not a long stretch in live poker by any means.

FWIW, whatever session stats related to that stretch are obviously going to be bad, and I wouldn't put any weight into them at all.

Focus on individual hands and sessions.
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Old 12-19-2016, 02:08 PM   #17128
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Hi guys,

Not sure if this is the appropriate place to post this but would like some opinions/thoughts?

What is considered a "big" win for a 1/3 session?

What about a decent win?

I bought in for 200 and cashed out with 585 what would you guys consider this?

Thanks!!
As always, lots of other good info posted on here regarding this type of question.

However, from a purely results oriented point of view, I personally consider a 300bb win at my 1/3 NL max BI $300 game a big win. In 392 sessions, I've booked 29 sessions where I've won $900+, or 7% of the time (noting that I once went 78 session between big wins).

GcluelessbigwinnoobG
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Old 12-20-2016, 01:36 AM   #17129
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Started playing the 9th this month, took a day, nah almost two days off, have 92hrs so far
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Old 12-20-2016, 11:44 AM   #17130
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Started playing the 9th this month, took a day, nah almost two days off, have 92hrs so far
Living up to the name. Nice work.
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Old 12-20-2016, 11:45 AM   #17131
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
As always, lots of other good info posted on here regarding this type of question.

However, from a purely results oriented point of view, I personally consider a 300bb win at my 1/3 NL max BI $300 game a big win. In 392 sessions, I've booked 29 sessions where I've won $900+, or 7% of the time (noting that I once went 78 session between big wins).

GcluelessbigwinnoobG
FWIW, in 1/2 and 1/3, 12.5% of my sessions are +/-$1000 or more.
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Old 12-20-2016, 12:04 PM   #17132
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Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
FWIW, in 1/2 and 1/3, 12.5% of my sessions are +/-$1000 or more.
But how long is your average session?

It makes a difference if you're putting up these solid wins over 8 hours, or 3 hours.

I'd think a "big win" is something where you're making 0.5-1 BI/hr over a couple of hours. (So a 1hr hit & quit wouldn't count).
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Old 12-20-2016, 12:21 PM   #17133
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Re: big wins

I'd have to go back and check but I'm pretty sure the best month I ever had in 2/5, I didn't win over 2 buy ins in a single session. Small wins add up and when you consistency leave up a few hundred dollars one day you tally it up and say "Holy ****"

Re breakeven:

Currently on a 500 stretch. Didn't think it was possible in live poker. I may in fact be a bad player.
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Old 12-20-2016, 01:10 PM   #17134
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But how long is your average session?
Yeah, no doubt lots of things factor into how often you book a big win/loss, including style (nit vs laggy), maximum BI, session length, table dynamics, etc.

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Old 12-20-2016, 01:12 PM   #17135
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Currently on a 500 stretch.
Ha, sounds like my 2015 (2.63 bb/hr, yo, I'm a winner!).

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Old 12-20-2016, 01:52 PM   #17136
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Re: big wins

I'd have to go back and check but I'm pretty sure the best month I ever had in 2/5, I didn't win over 2 buy ins in a single session. Small wins add up and when you consistency leave up a few hundred dollars one day you tally it up and say "Holy ****"
Yea. These kinds of sessions are very deceptive. A day where you sit for 3 hours at $1/2 and leave up $60 sometimes (often?) *feels* like a waste or "meh" session ... but that $20/hr is actually a pretty respectable WR for those stakes.

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Re breakeven:

Currently on a 500 stretch. Didn't think it was possible in live poker. I may in fact be a bad player.
Welcome to the club. If it makes you feel better, 2 or 3 big hands going the wrong way can easily nuke your WR for a couple hundred hours.
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Old 12-20-2016, 01:56 PM   #17137
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Yea. These kinds of sessions are very deceptive. A day where you sit for 3 hours at $1/2 and leave up $60 sometimes (often?) *feels* like a waste or "meh" session ... but that $20/hr is actually a pretty respectable WR for those stakes.
FWIW, it is pretty bad to start to rationalize it as such.

It creates a mentality to want to walk away to lock up a win regardless whether the table is +EV.

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Welcome to the club. If it makes you feel better, 2 or 3 big hands going the wrong way can easily nuke your WR for a couple hundred hours.
It can also create giraffes.

Look at old dhcg's graphs and you will see that he was few big sessions away from negative WR, and yet he was constantly bragging what his WR was.
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Old 12-20-2016, 02:07 PM   #17138
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FWIW, it is pretty bad to start to rationalize it as such.

It creates a mentality to want to walk away to lock up a win regardless whether the table is +EV.
I'm not rationalizing anything to "lock up a win". I play my sessions at the times that I have available, and/or are good table conditions if possible, and I leave when I'm out of time or the conditions go to ****.

At that point sometimes the results look or feel disappointing, when in fact they're not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
It can also create giraffes.

Look at old dhcg's graphs and you will see that he was few big sessions away from negative WR, and yet he was constantly bragging what his WR was.
Oh of course. A couple of big hands, particularly multi-way stack involving hands, can have huge impacts on our WR in both directions. That's why I'm always suspicious of results with small sample sizes, and why I consider 500 hours still small.
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Old 12-20-2016, 02:36 PM   #17139
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FWIW, in 1/2 and 1/3, 12.5% of my sessions are +/-$1000 or more.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
But how long is your average session?

It makes a difference if you're putting up these solid wins over 8 hours, or 3 hours.

I'd think a "big win" is something where you're making 0.5-1 BI/hr over a couple of hours. (So a 1hr hit & quit wouldn't count).
5 hour average session.
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Old 12-20-2016, 03:44 PM   #17140
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FWIW, it is pretty bad to start to rationalize it as such.



It creates a mentality to want to walk away to lock up a win regardless whether the table is +EV.



Not everyone can go and play for unlimited hours. Some of us have reasons for leaving after 3, 4, 5 hours that have nothing to do with poker
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Old 12-20-2016, 03:47 PM   #17141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DonkeyCopter View Post
FWIW, in 1/2 and 1/3, 12.5% of my sessions are +/-$1000 or more.


5 hour average session.


Judging from your graphs, you're one of the biggest outliers here. A big win for you is probably 50% higher than everyone else
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Old 12-20-2016, 04:05 PM   #17142
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Judging from your graphs, you're one of the biggest outliers here. A big win for you is probably 50% higher than everyone else
I'm guessing a lot of it depends on his style, the game's max BI, the typical table dynamics, etc.

I quickly looked at my stats and found 3 $900+ losses, so even I creep over 8% of my sessions are +/- 300bbs. And I play a low variance nit style in a 100bb max BI game.

GcluelessnitnoobG
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Old 12-20-2016, 04:15 PM   #17143
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Not everyone can go and play for unlimited hours. Some of us have reasons for leaving after 3, 4, 5 hours that have nothing to do with poker

smh...

When you rationalize $60 win after 3 hour as $20/hr, you start making all sort of rationalization relating to individual sessions.

That also make you more likely to consider leaving with $60 after 3 hours.

None of this has anything to do with whether you have other reasons to leave the table.
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Old 12-20-2016, 05:05 PM   #17144
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I'm doing my annual win rate calculation over the next day or two. Have noted every session but stopped inputting them into my program in about April.

Know it's definitely been my worst year for the past four but hopeful that my recent donkament collect may have me in a slight profit overall
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Old 12-20-2016, 05:07 PM   #17145
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What's to rationalize?

You're playing poker at the times and locations that are available to you. If that means putting up short sessions with small individual wins, so be it. Sometimes it's big wins or big loses too. The point is that a string of sessions that look small individually can actually amount to a higher winrate than many people would initially think, even without any huge session swings.
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Old 12-20-2016, 05:17 PM   #17146
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With only a handful of sessions left in this year, here's a cute little stat of my own:

67% of this years profit have come in 8% of my sessions (where I've booked 5 big wins in 60 sessions).

Not sure if I should be freaked out about that or not. Or whether it totally doesn't matter where/when the money comes from in (to date) a mediocre 6.25 bb/hr over 502 hour year. But it's a little freaky to realize the only difference between this year and my horrendous last year is that last year I didn't book a big win.

Gfreakingout,ha,notreally,whatever,yes?G
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Old 12-20-2016, 05:24 PM   #17147
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
smh...

When you rationalize $60 win after 3 hour as $20/hr, you start making all sort of rationalization relating to individual sessions.

That also make you more likely to consider leaving with $60 after 3 hours.

None of this has anything to do with whether you have other reasons to leave the table.
I'm with Angrist on this one. Earlier this year I fell into a mindset (in a 1/3 100BB cap game, average session 4 hours on a weeknight) that anything less than $100 (8BB/hr) was a waste of my time. Recognizing that it's still decent money doesn't make me want to quit early and book a small win, it makes me want to return the next night and win some more, even if this session I didn't get sick chipstack photos.
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Old 12-20-2016, 05:37 PM   #17148
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I'm at $202/hr for $5/5 PLO over 16.5 hours YTD.

Sustainable ldo.
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Old 12-20-2016, 05:55 PM   #17149
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FWIW, rationalization varies individually, some may perceive things glass half full, others as glass half empty.

All I was saying that when you start to rationalize things a certain way, it may be possible that you would make less than +EV decisions.

Calm down...
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Old 12-20-2016, 08:38 PM   #17150
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
With only a handful of sessions left in this year, here's a cute little stat of my own:

67% of this years profit have come in 8% of my sessions (where I've booked 5 big wins in 60 sessions).

Not sure if I should be freaked out about that or not. Or whether it totally doesn't matter where/when the money comes from in (to date) a mediocre 6.25 bb/hr over 502 hour year. But it's a little freaky to realize the only difference between this year and my horrendous last year is that last year I didn't book a big win.

Gfreakingout,ha,notreally,whatever,yes?G
This can get even worse to look at when you go inside each session. Plus 200 for an evening, and since I can remember stacking some clown for 300, that means the rest of the night I dribbled and drooled. This would be cute except I see it all the time. Capped game nit poker boring but pays the bills.

Man I suck, thank god they suck more.
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