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Old 12-06-2016, 09:14 AM   #17076
squid face
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by 7weeks2days View Post
What is the buy in structure for the 5/5 43.1 WR you are talking about?
2/5 nlh straddle from any where
10% 5$ max
1$ jackpot drop
200-1k
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Old 12-06-2016, 09:24 AM   #17077
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Serious Question:

If live FR is such a massive variance fest why is it that of all the people who I discuss poker with whose game I really respect not a single one does not have a top shelf win rate. Meaning that I apparently have zero poker buddies that are not life sun runners at full ring live poker
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Old 12-06-2016, 09:30 AM   #17078
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
Serious Question:

If live FR is such a massive variance fest why is it that of all the people who I discuss poker with whose game I really respect not a single one does not have a top shelf win rate. Meaning that I apparently have zero poker buddies that are not life sun runners at full ring live poker
+1

I know who the best 5-10 players are in my room. Its pretty easy to tell by playing with them after a few dozen hours. Of course they all go thru some variance swings occasionally but in the end they will always by the biggest winners because they are the best players, not because they are the luckiest.

I recently asked a 2+2er that plays in my room who he thinks the best players are and most of his names overlapped with mine.
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Old 12-06-2016, 10:46 AM   #17079
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Exactly what I said. 4BB/hr is not the ceiling for daytime games. You just have to know how to adjust. They dont fight back unless they have a big hand and they dont get big hands that often.
Depends for sure on your game, but absolutely this.
A bunch of regs/nits will give up the $$, they just do it slower.
So I find my ceiling well under 10bb in those games, but personally I can enjoy the resistance free 4-6BB/hour mostly coming from FE (and assuming I'm losing a bunch at showdown due to not running well and their range to call 1-2 barrels>>>>my range to bet 1-2 barrels)

Last edited by Maskk; 12-06-2016 at 10:54 AM.
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Old 12-06-2016, 11:00 AM   #17080
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by squid face View Post
Serious Question:

If live FR is such a massive variance fest why is it that of all the people who I discuss poker with whose game I really respect not a single one does not have a top shelf win rate. Meaning that I apparently have zero poker buddies that are not life sun runners at full ring live poker
Variance is real. That you think you're running like ass and pulling in a phenom 43.1 hourly is just not comprehended by closer-to-BE players.

If the expected WR is high enough, Variance determines how much you win, not whether you win or get crushed. However, to get to that level, someone need to be a serious crusher at the specific game/stake (EV >10bb hourly), which most winners aren't (and there are games tough enough where I posit it is not possible to win at >10bbHourly--2/5NL ain't one of em).

I give respect to anyone who can beat poker for >0bb/hr it already puts them in the top 10% of players who show up--but for most winning players dealing with rake, variance can very much determine if they win or lose over 1K hours.
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Old 12-06-2016, 11:57 AM   #17081
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Funny parts about variance are:

-If you have never been a long term winning player, you think those who win on a consistent basis are only doing so because of massive heater(s).
-If your WR is 4bb/hr, you think those who win more are on a massive heater(s).

And yet majority of losing players are so willing to accept the notion that certain players are winners, especially those that they think play similarly as they do...I wonder why.

Most people can't win at a higher WR because their way of thinking about the game is capped, something that is very difficult for people to comprehend or acknowledge.

------------------

FWIW, these two simple variables are what I think will determine WR ceiling:

1. Average money on the table
2. Skill level

If you are highly skilled and there is bunch of money on the table = $$$

If you are highly skilled and there isn't money on the table = $$

If you are not very skilled and there is bunch of money on the table = $$

If you are not very skilled and there isn't money on the table = $

If you are a 2+2 reader who has won at least 1 big session = $$$$$$$$
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Old 12-06-2016, 12:22 PM   #17082
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
FWIW, these two simple variables are what I think will determine WR ceiling:

1. Average money on the table
2. Skill level

If you are highly skilled and there is bunch of money on the table = $$$

If you are highly skilled and there isn't money on the table = $$

If you are not very skilled and there is bunch of money on the table = $$

If you are not very skilled and there isn't money on the table = $

If you are a 2+2 reader who has won at least 1 big session = $$$$$$$$
In my opinion, you're missing far and away the most important factor.

G1)theskilllevelofyouropponentsG
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Old 12-06-2016, 12:25 PM   #17083
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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
There's very few regions where the 1/2 or 1/3 game has any real % saturation with pro's aside from like, Vegas, because anybody good enough to crush normally moves up in stakes or is capable enough of making more $ at a real job so they just do it part time.
I'm guessing every market is different, and the definition of a "pro" can be a little dicey (is a retired guy who only plays poker a "pro"?), but in my room which basically only spreads 1/3 NL there is typically 1 pro (a non-retired person attempting this game for their main income) at each table (and sometimes more).

GeachmarketisdifferentG
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Old 12-06-2016, 12:28 PM   #17084
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
In my opinion, you're missing far and away the most important factor.

G1)theskilllevelofyouropponentsG
It's relative.
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Old 12-06-2016, 12:28 PM   #17085
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I don't think we should be overcomplicated with identifying a professional. A person who does it for a living.

A semi-pro, a guy who does it part-time for a living. (I think this one is the more complicated one to label)

And yes, skill level is easily the most important factor. Cash on the table can only increase your win rate so much, if everyone is better than you & you're still very skilled. But you're not making any money.
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Old 12-06-2016, 12:35 PM   #17086
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It's relative.
So it's already factored into 2) skill level? Ok, fair enough.

GcluelessskilllevelnoobG
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Old 12-06-2016, 12:37 PM   #17087
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Funny parts about variance are:

-If you have never been a long term winning player, you think those who win on a consistent basis are only doing so because of massive heater(s).
-If your WR is 4bb/hr, you think those who win more are on a massive heater(s).

And yet majority of losing players are so willing to accept the notion that certain players are winners, especially those that they think play similarly as they do...I wonder why.

Most people can't win at a higher WR because their way of thinking about the game is capped, something that is very difficult for people to comprehend or acknowledge.

------------------

FWIW, these two simple variables are what I think will determine WR ceiling:

1. Average money on the table
2. Skill level

If you are highly skilled and there is bunch of money on the table = $$$

If you are highly skilled and there isn't money on the table = $$

If you are not very skilled and there is bunch of money on the table = $$

If you are not very skilled and there isn't money on the table = $

If you are a 2+2 reader who has won at least 1 big session = $$$$$$$$
Id like to emphasize this point to everyone who thinks anything besides ABC bet/fold is FPS. Some times FPS is just FPS, other times FPS is thinking about the game in an out of the box way that can really improve winnings.
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Old 12-06-2016, 12:59 PM   #17088
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Most people can't win at a higher WR because their way of thinking about the game is capped, something that is very difficult for people to comprehend or acknowledge.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
In my opinion, you're missing far and away the most important factor.

G1)theskilllevelofyouropponentsG
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
It's relative.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Id like to emphasize this point to everyone who thinks anything besides ABC bet/fold is FPS. Some times FPS is just FPS, other times FPS is thinking about the game in an out of the box way that can really improve winnings.
Add all this up and we have the key to knowledge of winning at poker.
1) Your personal, and needing-to-ever-improve skill level
2) Playing people you can beat with money in front of them (game selection)

Back when I played for a 'living,' I played some guys who I thought would be long term BE or small winners (2bb/hr, high vol) at the sino 1/3 game. I also knew they had way higher yearly earn than I did (and I beat one of them up pretty badly, on the regular). Why? I know they played in a SUPER-JUICY 2-5 homish game 3hrs north vs. a whale whose expectation was the vicinity of -100bb/hr nearly regardless of lineup, and other less-awful whales who also liked to play that game.

Play people you can beat in a way that beats them.

P.S. FPS spewtard champion is far and away the best way to play! Just ask me (can be confirmed by Miamicheats).
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Old 12-06-2016, 06:00 PM   #17089
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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
2/5 nlh straddle from any where
10% 5$ max
1$ jackpot drop
200-1k

Alright. I spent some time playing in a similar game. I could see a 10-15 BB WR being doable long term in those games. I agree with squid and RP though as far as skill gap goes. Most of the people I hear complaining about "running bad" or variance have huge gaps in their game. If you experience absurd variance over a log period of time in llsnl you are most likely overestimating your edge. From what I have seen, If people got better at folding the upper end of their range in spots where they are never good I'm sure there would be much less whining about variance.
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Old 12-06-2016, 06:31 PM   #17090
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Its hilarious how people call down with like TPTK while shaking their head knowing they aren't good and then cry "WOW HOW DO I RUN SO BAD", as if they needed to see the hand that beat them to verify they were running bad.

Agreed that being unable to fold top % of range is a massive WR killer
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Old 12-06-2016, 06:55 PM   #17091
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and then they hold onto their hands, shake head, check cards again, then pause and whine for another 10 seconds before releasing them.
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Old 12-06-2016, 07:06 PM   #17092
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
and then they hold onto their hands, shake head, check cards again, then pause and whine for another 10 seconds before releasing them.
This almost tilts me more than people who tell you what they folded preflop every time they rivered a winning hand.
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Old 12-06-2016, 08:06 PM   #17093
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Fold lots and value bet thin and you'll win all the money.
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Old 12-07-2016, 12:10 AM   #17094
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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
This almost tilts me more than people who tell you what they folded preflop every time they rivered a winning hand.

Apologies for non WR derail, just an LLSNL advice moment.

Live donkey note: if a big, actiony fish does this... he'll like it if you join him once in awhile and be like: "Yo Rich-Life-Winner-Poker-Fish, can YOU believe what I folded before the flop". This also works far better if you are a loose player.
Why'd I ever fold J9? It always comes!
(despite being UTG+1 after a raise)


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Old 12-07-2016, 01:24 AM   #17095
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I usually say something along the lines of "WOW, you folded that?? Why'd you fold a full house? Cmon man you gatta stop folding!"

I agree that you should try to make light of every situation and don't let your frustrations become a bearing on other players (especially recs).

That being said, it still tilts me, even if I don't show it :P
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Old 12-07-2016, 01:35 AM   #17096
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
I usually say something along the lines of "WOW, you folded that?? Why'd you fold a full house? Cmon man you gatta stop folding!"

I agree that you should try to make light of every situation and don't let your frustrations become a bearing on other players (especially recs).

That being said, it still tilts me, even if I don't show it :P


Don't ever say that thing you wrote in the top para. Completely transparent and disingenuous
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Old 12-07-2016, 04:16 AM   #17097
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I think you're misunderstanding the context of it. This is a light-hearted sarcastic comment that's purposefully highlighting that their comment is silly (because you obviously can't call $100 pre with 83s expecting to river a boat, ldo). I agree that most shouldn't say that to people they don't play with all the time, but it's hardly "transparent and disingenuous" -- if anything it's just a friendly needle.

I'd discuss this more but the specifics of said conversation would border a derail, so I'll just leave it at that.

Last edited by YGOchamp; 12-07-2016 at 04:24 AM.
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Old 12-07-2016, 03:11 PM   #17098
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Is this rake structure acceptable?

Hi LLSNL,

I think rake is lower in the US in general. Would you play? All figures are €uros.
Licensed Casino. No idea about the competition there though.

rake | pot
- | < 40 €
2 | 40-99
4 | 100 -199
6 | 200-299
8 | 300 -399
10|400+

No flop no drop obv.

Tanks in advance
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Old 12-07-2016, 03:18 PM   #17099
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Re: Is this rake structure acceptable?

That is amazing rake. Looks like 2% up to max $10. Where I play (government casino), it's 10% up to max $8 (at $1/$2).
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Old 12-07-2016, 03:20 PM   #17100
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Re: Is this rake structure acceptable?

So I'm guessing like a 1/2 game with $200 BI?

Rake is actually quite awesome on the pots < $99 and still extremely reasonable on the $100 - $199 pots (better than most rooms I'm guessing), which I'm guessing probably make up the majority of the pots. Even on the $200 - $299 pots it equals my room (and would better than my room if there is no BBJ).

The only pots where it starts to suck is on the $300+ pots. But in a 1/2 game those will be the rarest pots unless it is a real action game. Those admittedly take a decent chunk, but might be offset by the rake you are saving on the smaller pots you'll ship more often.

My room takes 10% up to $6 max (plus a $1 BBJ), which I would guess is worse than your conditions, but I could be wrong.

GcluelessrakenoobG
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