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Old 12-04-2016, 11:29 AM   #17051
br3nt00
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gatorlaw View Post


This is my results from 1-3 Live Cash. However, I really try and optimize for peak times, deep games, and straddled games.

Ill admit I play in one home game that is 1-3-10(mandatory and it is good game) but that is less than 5% of this.

Where I play,1-3 is only game offered. Late on weekends, I can lots of times table change to where I dont consider it a 1-3 game anymore. When 5,000 or more is on table and you can open to $25 or $3o and for sure get multiple callers, is this really 1-3 ?

Anyway, I also wanted to say that on the other side of the coin, I know I did noto have my A game during all of this time, I dont have it tracked but I estimate I would have made 10,000-20,000 more playing my absolute best throughout this time.
wow very impressive - good stuff!
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Old 12-05-2016, 01:01 PM   #17052
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My results -

I only have accurate hourly since April, which is when I got a new phone. Since then, I've won $11,380 over 265 hours, for a win rate of $42.93/hour. Games are most 1/2 deep stack (I buy in for at least $300, and will buy in and rebuy more depending on who is at the table for how much) with some 1/3 and 2/5 mixed in. I've run remarkably good at the 2/5 tables when I play, as I've won $4,883 over 28 hours, for a $175/hour rate. Obviously running good when playing bigger stakes is great for the win rate with few hours (I'm a rec player). In my main game, (1/2 deepstack) I have almost 200 hours with a win rate of $29/hour.

Prior to April, I have about $2700 of winning in the prior 12 months, though no hourly due to phone issues. Prior to that my records require doing too much addition or moving to Excel, but I was generally winning a few thousand dollars a year playing about 200 hours/year of 1/2.

My general thoughts - I'm clearly running good though usually think I'm the best or second best player at most tables, and definitely the most comfortable playing deep stack. Had a bad stretch end of 2015 that I recall losing about $4k in 5 sessions, which was a bit tough to bounce back from. Feel like I've improved my game since then, especially in figuring out who to bluff and who to value bet, playing draws aggressively in the right spot and not getting stuck playing big pots with medium hands.

Last edited by MIB211; 12-05-2016 at 01:04 PM. Reason: noting ridiculous small number of hours
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Old 12-05-2016, 04:03 PM   #17053
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https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_x...dxYWwzSkU/view

Last edited by paulhamr; 12-05-2016 at 04:08 PM. Reason: I didn't link it right the first time
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Old 12-05-2016, 04:41 PM   #17054
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Originally Posted by pokahguy View Post
A pro's entire 11.5k hour career can be summed up by how well he/she ran over only 100k hands they voluntarily put into the pot with. We can break the 100k hand figure down even further which would be cumbersome so i'd rather not. But more or less the far far majority of how high a winning players win rate is at live no limit 100 cap FR depends on how well they ran in a relatively very small amount of pots.
Interesting take, imo.

GcluelessWRnoobG
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Old 12-05-2016, 04:42 PM   #17055
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Originally Posted by br3nt00 View Post
wow very impressive - good stuff!
+1

Gcongrats!G
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Old 12-05-2016, 04:47 PM   #17056
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Interesting take, imo.

GcluelessWRnoobG
It is ridiculously pessimistic since edges can be so huge in live poker.

We are playing the top 20% of hands, mostly in position, against opponents who play hand ranges as far down as the bottom 40% of hands. It doesn't take 100,000 hands to start to realize your true edge when we have such a strong card, skill, and positional advantage in the majority of hands we play in.
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Old 12-05-2016, 04:56 PM   #17057
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Originally Posted by bodybuilder32 View Post
It is ridiculously pessimistic since edges can be so huge in live poker.

We are playing the top 20% of hands, mostly in position, against opponents who play hand ranges as far down as the bottom 40% of hands. It doesn't take 100,000 hands to start to realize your true edge when we have such a strong card, skill, and positional advantage in the majority of hands we play in.
He didn't say anything regarding knowing if we have an edge advantage (it's pretty clear most of us do at ****** infested tables).

I think he's saying that we'll be lucky to have any real handle on our winrate (or potential maximum winrate) even after a lifetime's worth of playing. My very comparable 1000 hour vs 2000 hour results compared against my totally different 3000 hour results also seems to suggest this.

GhopeIrunwellduringmylifetimeG
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Old 12-05-2016, 08:30 PM   #17058
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It's ridiculously realistic is what it is.

Majority of pros hours are played during non optimal times. How many 40vpip huge fish are in a typical 2/5 weekday game? 1? Maybe maybe 2? So a pro isn't vpip 10,000 hands per year hu vs a 40vpip drooler. No no no no. He's battling it out with the 6-7 other regs for a chance to play a small percentage of total hands vs the big fish.

To clarify once more, the majority of hands a pro actually plays is vs regs, who obviously play better and amounts to way smaller range vs range edges than what most people expect.

Regs play bad and there's still a significant edge to keep playing. But you would be deluding yourself if you think you can squeeze more than 4bb/ hr in a line up like that in a typical readless 100bb cap game. And if you're not 100% positive you are the best player at the table then that wr plummets even further.

So much depends on how well you run and how good your table selection game is. And even then it's up to poker gods to decide if you'll win 10bb/hr over larger samples.
It depends on where you're at. There are plenty of rooms where the number of recs, OMC, etc. outnumber "pros" 20-to-1. My local room draws from about 700,000 and there isn't more than a handful of "pros." Probably less.

Even most people that play all the time aren't any good.
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Old 12-05-2016, 08:40 PM   #17059
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Variance calculations have already taken into account that you didn't play every hand though. If a winning player ran a simulation only on the hands he played his winrate over those hands would be enormous compared to the typical winrates we use. So "summing it up" that way is no different than just doing a regular comparison of two 11.5k hour stretches wrt variance.

Edit: So, say you have a 10bb per hour winner and you want to look at it through the how he ran when he vpip glass. Let's say he has a 15% VPIP. That means he's a 75bb per hour winner now if he's only being dealt hands he's vpiped. Assuming 30 hands per hour that means he's winning at 250/100! So even if his standard deviation is huge over those hundred hands, which it will be, it's not going to be anywhere near enough to send his earnings too far off track over 100000 hands.

Last edited by BirdsallSa; 12-05-2016 at 08:45 PM.
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Old 12-05-2016, 08:56 PM   #17060
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It depends on where you're at. There are plenty of rooms where the number of recs, OMC, etc. outnumber "pros" 20-to-1. My local room draws from about 700,000 and there isn't more than a handful of "pros." Probably less.

Even most people that play all the time aren't any good.
To be fair you play 1/3 exclusively, yes?

There's very few regions where the 1/2 or 1/3 game has any real % saturation with pro's aside from like, Vegas, because anybody good enough to crush normally moves up in stakes or is capable enough of making more $ at a real job so they just do it part time.

When you start moving up the stakes, the amount of pro's per table increases. Funnily enough, it can actually be a bell curve in many instances, where mid-stakes has the most amount of pro-to-rec, and then in the nosebleeds you'll get only a few with a bunch of very wealthy businessmen (barriers to entry obv).
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Old 12-05-2016, 09:04 PM   #17061
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Originally Posted by YGOchamp View Post
To be fair you play 1/3 exclusively, yes?

There's very few regions where the 1/2 or 1/3 game has any real % saturation with pro's aside from like, Vegas, because anybody good enough to crush normally moves up in stakes or is capable enough of making more $ at a real job so they just do it part time.

When you start moving up the stakes, the amount of pro's per table increases. Funnily enough, it can actually be a bell curve in many instances, where mid-stakes has the most amount of pro-to-rec, and then in the nosebleeds you'll get only a few with a bunch of very wealthy businessmen (barriers to entry obv).
1/3 is usually the only game spread. 1-2-5 omaha mix is sporadic and I rarely play that.

It's also likely the 1/3 game I play is one of the best in the country.

I'm also not a pro fwiw.
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Old 12-05-2016, 09:51 PM   #17062
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No way is daytime win rate capped at 4BBs/hr.
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Old 12-05-2016, 10:04 PM   #17063
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pokahguy needs to study statistics.

Everyone else needs to learn the difference between bb and BB.

YGO - the pro to rec ratio trend does not reverse after mid stakes... it gets dramatically worse. A lot of high stakes games are 6~8 pros and 1~3 "fun" player(s). There are rare exceptions to this, but it has nothing to do with stakes, it has to do with private/hosted/arranged games. (edit - never mind - see you wrote the same thing)

In a mid-size market, the biggest game will have the 5+ best players in the market in it.

Last edited by bip!; 12-05-2016 at 10:16 PM.
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Old 12-05-2016, 10:05 PM   #17064
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You play poker in south florida, arguably the loosest most action games in the entire ****ing world. So yeah, your case is special.
The daytime games are full of retirees. They are anything but action packed.
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Old 12-05-2016, 10:12 PM   #17065
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big yawn....so much pie in the sky and how many angels can you balance on the head of a pin in the current state of this thread
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Old 12-05-2016, 10:18 PM   #17066
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big yawn....so much pie in the sky and how many angels can you balance on the head of a pin in the current state of this thread


This x1000

Back to giraffes of real results rather than conjecture
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Old 12-05-2016, 10:26 PM   #17067
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
The daytime games are full of retirees. They are anything but action packed.


These guys are crushable at lower vol w an ABC Donkey-Crusher strategy of just raising IP and bet/folding 1-2 streets.
Sure it's not the mythical 15bb/hr late night donkey fest... But using a pretty snoozer IP LAG strat, OMC/recs will give up a low Vol 4-6bb/hr. And if you're paying the bills off of poker, 8-16 daytime hours a midweek isn't so crazy.


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Old 12-05-2016, 10:43 PM   #17068
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Rule proposal for December:

Post your own results before posting assertions about win rates.
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Old 12-05-2016, 10:45 PM   #17069
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Originally Posted by Maskk View Post
These guys are crushable at lower vol w an ABC Donkey-Crusher strategy of just raising IP and bet/folding 1-2 streets.
Sure it's not the mythical 15bb/hr late night donkey fest... But using a pretty snoozer IP LAG strat, OMC/recs will give up a low Vol 4-6bb/hr. And if you're paying the bills off of poker, 8-16 daytime hours a midweek isn't so crazy.


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Exactly what I said. 4BB/hr is not the ceiling for daytime games. You just have to know how to adjust. They dont fight back unless they have a big hand and they dont get big hands that often.
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Old 12-06-2016, 02:01 AM   #17070
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I've deleted a post by pokahguy and all responses to it, and banned him from the thread. Those of you who saw it should be aware that this type of posting will not be tolerated in this thread. If you are unsure why, please read the pop-up with the rules of the thread again. If you didn't see it, just be aware that any "lol at you" type posting will get you banned.

That said, feel wrath, YGOchamp, and others, please remember the guidelines that say don't fight back against posting you think breaks the posting guidelines. Just hit report and keep the back and forth out of the thread.

Last edited by Garick; 12-06-2016 at 02:09 AM.
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Old 12-06-2016, 03:23 AM   #17071
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I don't think he deserved a ban. Prior to his last post all he was saying was live full ring is a variance fest which measures who has run hotter over a statistically insignificant number of hands (which sounds accurate to me).

I used to scoff at GG because I thought his 1/3 game passed him by, and while I still do think he is overly nitty/MUBsy and misses value routinely across multiple streets, there is something to be said for his 0-1000 vs. 1000-2000 vs. 2000-3000 hour sample sizes.

I was also of the ilk that variance was some abstract esoteric concept that could simply be willed away by volume and positive thinking, and for 1000 hours or so that is how it behaved. But the more volume I play (and I think I've put in more volume than 99% of active posters in LLSNL over the last 12-24 months) the more I find myself agreeing with his general thesis: that live full-ring is a massive variance fest where obtaining a "true" win rate is impossible and the people arguing for or against are falling on opposite ends of the variance spectrum.

If you guys remember, a year ago I was floating ignorantly bliss on cloud 9 professing my belief that $50/hr at 1/2 and $90/hr at $1000 cap 2/5 was attainable at part-time and exclusively peak hours (which I still kind of believe if you are only playing 15-20 hours per week at peak times while having a lucrative full-time job that covers the bills and then some).

2016 was the year of discovering how different it is to be playing at the rec/serious reg level with a full-time job and the full-time eat-what-you-kill training-wheels-are-off no-income-on-the-side level. Unfortunately my learning lesson overlapped with "first experiences in once-in-a-lifetime negative variance" that questions your faith in mathematics and the very nature of EV and whether it's possible to run standard deviations above or below EV over 1 year, multiple years and lifetime periods (which I now believe it is due to statistically insignificant sample sizes in "big pots").

Last edited by johnnyBuz; 12-06-2016 at 03:33 AM.
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Old 12-06-2016, 06:08 AM   #17072
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Fair enough Garick
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Old 12-06-2016, 07:08 AM   #17073
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ok I should have been clearer.

43.10 is me running like absolute ass

when my kid was in school I made it a point to stay on a completely normal schedule and I played the worst hours and spent weekends with her (not gamboolin). My earn was north of 50 over a hefty sample.

I have said this countless times. I am not a great poker player. BUT I play 2/5 very well. I truly understand how to adjust and actually do so. I can feel when my game is slipping and I do what is necessary to correct it. The whole thing aint rocket science by any stretch...but for my little world I have solved my particular equation pretty well.

I play with and associate with people significantly smarter than my self (I am talking a couple o dozen iq points). I do not understand some of the sht they do. I try but sometimes I cant wrap my head around it. I am not sure what the ceiling for w/r is but I think that is is pure mental masturbation trying to come up with a number.

I know a few stone cold killers and I promise the numbers are higher than what you are guessing.

I generally do not talk numbers and have poasted up 1 giraffe in my time here...but we are getting to the end of the year and my w/r is not very good for me and I wanted to point out that that was near the top of the rate you predicted for someone playing non prime hours (ya some are prime but a massive slug of this year is non prime as recreating has been a top priority and I need to be in bed early so I am fresh.

What is the buy in structure for the 5/5 43.1 WR you are talking about?
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Old 12-06-2016, 07:09 AM   #17074
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
misses value routinely across multiple streets
This is so unbelievably important and something most people have a hard time focusing on, especially when they are sunrunning. This value that you miss, and probably could care less about when everything is going your way, is exactly the value that you are "banking" against the inevitable downswing.

Without this value, the downswings can be long, dark, and brutal beyond your imagining.

You simply cannot be so afraid of value owning yourself at times that it causes you to miss value against V's range.
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Old 12-06-2016, 09:06 AM   #17075
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I don't think he deserved a ban. Prior to his last post all he was saying was live full ring is a variance fest which measures who has run hotter over a statistically insignificant number of hands (which sounds accurate to me).
That wasn't what got him banned. Those posts are still in the thread. The post I deleted was "lol at <person> for disagreeing with me. He's just a sun-runner who..." type stuff. This is a clear violation of Rule #2 in this thread.
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Rule 2: Be constructive. No "lol, you must be kidding," no "no ****ing way you are winning that much," no "fish on a heater," etc...
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