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Old 12-03-2016, 11:32 AM   #17026
squid face
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

ok I should have been clearer.

43.10 is me running like absolute ass

when my kid was in school I made it a point to stay on a completely normal schedule and I played the worst hours and spent weekends with her (not gamboolin). My earn was north of 50 over a hefty sample.

I have said this countless times. I am not a great poker player. BUT I play 2/5 very well. I truly understand how to adjust and actually do so. I can feel when my game is slipping and I do what is necessary to correct it. The whole thing aint rocket science by any stretch...but for my little world I have solved my particular equation pretty well.

I play with and associate with people significantly smarter than my self (I am talking a couple o dozen iq points). I do not understand some of the sht they do. I try but sometimes I cant wrap my head around it. I am not sure what the ceiling for w/r is but I think that is is pure mental masturbation trying to come up with a number.

I know a few stone cold killers and I promise the numbers are higher than what you are guessing.

I generally do not talk numbers and have poasted up 1 giraffe in my time here...but we are getting to the end of the year and my w/r is not very good for me and I wanted to point out that that was near the top of the rate you predicted for someone playing non prime hours (ya some are prime but a massive slug of this year is non prime as recreating has been a top priority and I need to be in bed early so I am fresh.
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Old 12-03-2016, 11:40 AM   #17027
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It still sounds like you are agreeing with what I said. My assumption is max win rate is about $45/hr during daytime and $60 during what I call peak hours (after dinner and anytime on weekends). Ive never once played after midnight so maybe its much higher that late. I have no idea.

If you played a mix of those hours and your win rate was somewhere north of $50 (lets call it $54), then youre right in there with what I call the max win rate. Im also talking about 100BB max games.

OK, maybe there are a few outliers who crush better than that but there arent many at all.

The overall point is that $100K at 2/5 is possible but unlikely for all but the very very best players and it should be obvious who they are. If some random guy you play with says he made $100K and he doesnt already stand out to you as a freaking killer, hes lying.
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Old 12-03-2016, 12:03 PM   #17028
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Wait, don't both of you guys play at Hard Rock Tampa? Can we get a Mike Starr v Squid Face heads up 4 rollz challenge?
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Old 12-03-2016, 12:21 PM   #17029
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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
...I have said this countless times. I am not a great poker player. BUT I play 2/5 very well. I truly understand how to adjust and actually do so. I can feel when my game is slipping and I do what is necessary to correct it. The whole thing aint rocket science by any stretch...but for my little world I have solved my particular equation pretty well.

I play with and associate with people significantly smarter than my self (I am talking a couple o dozen iq points). I do not understand some of the sht they do. I try but sometimes I cant wrap my head around it...
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Wait, don't both of you guys play at Hard Rock Tampa? Can we get a Mike Starr v Squid Face heads up 4 rollz challenge?
I play fr. I have played a good bit of HU in my time...but have not in years. Also I got nuttin to prove so I respectfully decline. That being said I know a cute little girl who would be more than happy to play hu
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Old 12-03-2016, 01:11 PM   #17030
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Re: Guy told me he made $100k playing 2/5 - should I believe him?

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My personal opinion is that max win rate at 2/5 during the daytime is about $45/hr and if you play only at peak times its about $60/hr. I would say only 1% of players can do that. Probably only 2-3% can top $35-$40/hr.

If he made that much he is clearly one of the best players in your room. So is he one of the very best players in your room? If he is it should be very obvious to you.
After easily 7k of daytime game, I would agree, not to mention that most of daytime games around here consist of at most 2 tables and mostly just 1 with must-move.
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Old 12-03-2016, 04:33 PM   #17031
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Live fr is such a variance fest. The two biggest requirements to maintaining huge win rates at live fr is 1. Game select 2. Run hotter than everyone else.
After comparing my 2015 and 2016 I would have to agree.
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Old 12-03-2016, 05:21 PM   #17032
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I hope I never have to find out what my WR is in limit games.

Although I know that my BR would probably have to be twice as big to achieve same WR comfortably if I move from NL to limit.

Funny how most players probably think it's the opposite.
This is true, but you can lower your variance in NL by play style. There is no significant way to lower variance in limit.
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Old 12-03-2016, 05:29 PM   #17033
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Live fr is such a variance fest. The two biggest requirements to maintaining huge win rates at live fr is 1. Game select 2. Run hotter than everyone else.
Variance fest compared to what? Short-handed games are much higher variance whether it be live or online.

Live Full ring has got to have the lowest variance of profitable gambling out there.

Yes, we need to make hands to win $, but part of our biggest edge is losing the minimum when we go card dead or when we are up against the top of our opponent's range. Patience and discipline will always be king.

Last edited by bodybuilder32; 12-03-2016 at 05:34 PM.
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Old 12-03-2016, 06:09 PM   #17034
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Re: Guy told me he made $100k playing 2/5 - should I believe him?

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After easily 7k of daytime game, I would agree, not to mention that most of daytime games around here consist of at most 2 tables and mostly just 1 with must-move.
After 11months, RP agrees with me on something
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Old 12-03-2016, 06:11 PM   #17035
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Wait, don't both of you guys play at Hard Rock Tampa? Can we get a Mike Starr v Squid Face heads up 4 rollz challenge?
I dont play in Tampa, but anyway, why would I want to challenge Squid Face? Hes a beast and I have nothing against him.
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Old 12-03-2016, 07:09 PM   #17036
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Re: Guy told me he made $100k playing 2/5 - should I believe him?

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My personal opinion is that max win rate at 2/5 during the daytime is about $45/hr and if you play only at peak times its about $60/hr. I would say only 1% of players can do that. Probably only 2-3% can top $35-$40/hr.

If he made that much he is clearly one of the best players in your room. So is he one of the very best players in your room? If he is it should be very obvious to you.


There are at least two players in my room who have made more than this at 5/5 (700) over several years. They are properly top class poker players who crushed the 5/10/20 as well when it ran and then when that game died they destroyed the 5/5 again when that was the biggest hold em game in the room.

Fortunately, they have moved on to much very higher stakes PLO now but I definitely believe those guys were beating the game for at least $70 an hour over a sustainable period. PLO has destroyed the hold em games now and there isn't as much easy money on the table so I don't think 70-80 is do-able any more
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Old 12-03-2016, 08:02 PM   #17037
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Wait, don't both of you guys play at Hard Rock Tampa? Can we get a Mike Starr v Squid Face heads up 4 rollz challenge?
Winning in one form of poker does not make you great at all forms of poker.
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Old 12-03-2016, 09:38 PM   #17038
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Something else to consider is tax. If you make 100k a year at 2/5, you're not walking away with 100k. Granted this is the same at any 100k salaried job. Now if you do the same in the UK or Australia for instance, you get to keep the extra 25k you pay to tax. This is a very big factor.

Imo if you're making 100k US minus the 25k US from tax, this gets close to cancelling out the lolrake in Australia. Also no tipping here.

Also to mention you could have an 80k EV year and very very easily clear 100k+. You could do this for 5 years straight and have the illusion of being a 100k EV player. Probably wouldn't ever know true WR.

But yeah, if you play 50-60 hours a week for 50 weeks a year, you can very easily (overstatement) net 100k playing 1/3 or 2/5 anywhere in the world. Unless you live on a cruise ship. Probably at 1/2 as well if it's a decent structure and plays like 1/3.
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Old 12-03-2016, 10:16 PM   #17039
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The difference between 2-3% vs a 1% winner playing FR nlhe is almost entirely variance based. Who is running hotter over a longer period of time.

Pretty sure that's the same excuse most BE players use to rationalize why they're BE players.
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Old 12-03-2016, 10:35 PM   #17040
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Something else to consider is tax. If you make 100k a year at 2/5, you're not walking away with 100k. Granted this is the same at any 100k salaried job. Now if you do the same in the UK or Australia for instance, you get to keep the extra 25k you pay to tax. This is a very big factor.

Imo if you're making 100k US minus the 25k US from tax, this gets close to cancelling out the lolrake in Australia. Also no tipping here.

Also to mention you could have an 80k EV year and very very easily clear 100k+. You could do this for 5 years straight and have the illusion of being a 100k EV player. Probably wouldn't ever know true WR.

But yeah, if you play 50-60 hours a week for 50 weeks a year, you can very easily (overstatement) net 100k playing 1/3 or 2/5 anywhere in the world. Unless you live on a cruise ship. Probably at 1/2 as well if it's a decent structure and plays like 1/3.
Def agree with this.

Not to mention if you're a UK/AUS citizen you can travel to the U.S. and play in our same markets without having to pay any taxes.

Ugh I need to become a UK citizen, too bad you have to spend like 6 years there.
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Old 12-03-2016, 10:54 PM   #17041
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Def agree with this.



Not to mention if you're a UK/AUS citizen you can travel to the U.S. and play in our same markets without having to pay any taxes.



Ugh I need to become a UK citizen, too bad you have to spend like 6 years there.


It's 4 years in Aus. Or you can marry somebody and do it in 2.5
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Old 12-03-2016, 11:15 PM   #17042
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Dang, have to actually consider that...

Though I think I'd much rather be in London
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Old 12-03-2016, 11:40 PM   #17043
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Pretty sure that's the same excuse most BE players use to rationalize why they're BE players.
RP, cut it out. We agree again. This is getting weird now.
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Old 12-03-2016, 11:57 PM   #17044
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i find this discussion pretty interesting and have been following it, basically agree with meale's assessment providing one is able and willing to be in the casino during hours when others are having a life, pretty much exclusively
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Old 12-04-2016, 12:44 AM   #17045
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Def agree with this.

Not to mention if you're a UK/AUS citizen you can travel to the U.S. and play in our same markets without having to pay any taxes.

Ugh I need to become a UK citizen, too bad you have to spend like 6 years there.
Yeah, would be nice to grind cash in Melbourne during Aussie Millions and then cash in Vegas during WSOP. Flights would prob be pretty -EV if you were UK based though.

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Ugh I need to become a UK citizen, too bad you have to spend like 6 years there.
My gameplan is to freeroll an Irish passport and consider living in London if my first year playing pro in Melbourne goes well.

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Though I think I'd much rather be in London
Cost of living is way higher ofc but I think the reduction in rake from London compared to Melbourne is probably way over $30k a year.

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basically agree with meale's assessment providing one is able and willing to be in the casino during hours when others are having a life, pretty much exclusively
Yeeeah, I guess plenty of people work Friday nights/weekends though. I'd do a form of rotating roster that would give me at least 1 Friday/Saturday night off per month so I can let loose. It's not particularly hard to put 50 hours in a week when you're essentially just sitting down all day. As long as you're balanced and healthy, and preferably some what of a social introvert who doesn't need to go out and get plastered twice weekly, you'll be fine.
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Old 12-04-2016, 01:19 AM   #17046
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If your goal is to play cash, leaving Melb or Syd to play in Vegas during wsop is ridiculous. Way softer in Aus
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Old 12-04-2016, 01:30 AM   #17047
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This is my results from 1-3 Live Cash. However, I really try and optimize for peak times, deep games, and straddled games.

Ill admit I play in one home game that is 1-3-10(mandatory and it is good game) but that is less than 5% of this.

Where I play,1-3 is only game offered. Late on weekends, I can lots of times table change to where I dont consider it a 1-3 game anymore. When 5,000 or more is on table and you can open to $25 or $3o and for sure get multiple callers, is this really 1-3 ?

Anyway, I also wanted to say that on the other side of the coin, I know I did noto have my A game during all of this time, I dont have it tracked but I estimate I would have made 10,000-20,000 more playing my absolute best throughout this time.
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Old 12-04-2016, 01:52 AM   #17048
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On the flip side, if you don't play those best hours, you would probably make 20k less or even more.

Kind of like how people think variance only means negative.
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Old 12-04-2016, 02:02 AM   #17049
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On the flip side, if you don't play those best hours, you would probably make 20k less or even more.

Kind of like how people think variance only means negative.

Yeah, I can agree with this. I play some other games that are bigger. PLO8 mostly. Some L08. So Im not going to use my time to sit in a 1-3 holdem game with 2,000 on table and no one straddling.

But I still find playing 1-3 worthwhile when the dynamics are as i previously desribed. My win rate playing bigger Omaha8 games is better but not by much. Im admittedly not near as experienced in these games yet. Also, playing the live 1-3 is more like printing money than playing bigger omaha games where you can make a lot but you can lose a lot.
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Old 12-04-2016, 10:01 AM   #17050
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Yeah, I can agree with this. I play some other games that are bigger. PLO8 mostly. Some L08. So Im not going to use my time to sit in a 1-3 holdem game with 2,000 on table and no one straddling.

But I still find playing 1-3 worthwhile when the dynamics are as i previously desribed. My win rate playing bigger Omaha8 games is better but not by much. Im admittedly not near as experienced in these games yet. Also, playing the live 1-3 is more like printing money than playing bigger omaha games where you can make a lot but you can lose a lot.
Most of my daytime 2/5 games start with an avg of $3500 on the table and thats 10 handed so an avg stack of 70BBs (Ive counted a number of times when the table opened). Its very rare to see straddles during the daytime.

That 1/3 game that you mention isnt really worth your time has an avg stack of about 70BBs also. I only mention this to emphasize again the difference in win rates depending on when you play.

My win rate after dinner time or on weekends is 1.55 times my weekday daytime win rate. That's a huge difference.
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