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11-28-2016, 06:51 PM   #17001
iraisetoomuch
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Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 34,453
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Richard Parker It's simple math though: 4/8 WR = \$16/hr 1/2 WR = \$16/hr Both tables play the same number of hands and both have same rake structure. How would rake be more impacting in one but not another?
This could very easily be true.

If I win 15% of the hands dealt at 1/2 NL, and I win \$10/hand but I tip/rake away \$5 of it, then I'm winning \$5/hand at 30 hand an hour, so I win 4.5 hands an hour or \$18/hour.

If I win 20% of the hands dealt at a 4/8 game, but win \$8/hand and tip/rake away \$5 per hand, now I'm making \$3/hand at 30 hand an hour so I win 6 hands per hour or \$18/hour.

I've paid \$30 in rake in the second example and \$22.5 in the first.
Now granted, these win % of hands aren't correct, but the general idea holds true. If I play(win) less hands but win more bigger pots I can pay less in rake than someone who won a lot of smaller pots and still end up with the same win rate.

You could interchange the 1/2 NL win rate for the 4/8 win rate and the idea is still the same.

But more importantly in a game where average pot size is larger (which ever game that is), we can afford to play more hands profitably as our initial investment is smaller compared to the cost of rake/tip, so we may be able to increase our bottom line more with a larger skill advantage over the field.

 11-28-2016, 07:19 PM #17002 Richard Parker banned     Join Date: Jan 2013 Location: Right Side of Variance Posts: 13,951 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances We are not talking about how much we win per hand... x = rake, y = tip. \$16 = WR - x - y. x and y are constant.
 11-28-2016, 08:15 PM #17003 iraisetoomuch banned     Join Date: Aug 2013 Location: New Jersey Posts: 34,453 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances You win rate per hour is a function of your win rate per hand and hands played per hour..
11-28-2016, 11:21 PM   #17004
jonchillmatic
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Join Date: Mar 2014
Posts: 399
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thanks all for the responses

Quote:
 Originally Posted by KatoKrazy IIRC there was a guy who played a bunch of 8/16 limit at CAZ as a challenge and kept up a thread on 2+2, maybe in PGC?
Thanks Kato I found it.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...?highlight=caz

11-28-2016, 11:24 PM   #17005
KatoKrazy
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Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Orange County, CA
Posts: 4,226
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by jonchillmatic Thanks all for the responses Thanks Kato I found it. https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...?highlight=caz
Yep that's the one.

11-29-2016, 12:21 AM   #17006
Richard Parker
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Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch You win rate per hour is a function of your win rate per hand and hands played per hour..

In other words, you're simply arguing how many hands can be played and what the net return is for each hand...

It is possible, but that's as much speculation as there could be fewer hands.

 11-29-2016, 12:58 PM #17007 The Rumor Carpal \'Tunnel     Join Date: Sep 2011 Location: Wherever my loanshark isn't Posts: 9,559 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances RP - we are all guessing here, I agree
11-29-2016, 05:23 PM   #17008
Richard Parker
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Join Date: Jan 2013
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
 Originally Posted by The Rumor RP - we are all guessing here, I agree

Ultimately my question was aimed to debunk whether 2 big bets is possible as WR/hr.

There seems to be the notion that it is possible in higher stake, but not so in lower stake because the game is raked higher in proportion.

If we compare apple to apple, then WR is determined after consideration of rake and tip.

I suppose if it's possible to win \$32/hr after rake and tip, then that player is actually winning at probably closer to \$35.

So 4/8 would probably be around \$13/hr or slightly less using similar assumption.

 11-29-2016, 05:31 PM #17009 bip! Slow Pony     Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: not on urban dictionary... Posts: 13,669 *** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances *** I have never seen 2BB / hr listed by any author of limit books FWIW... Every authority on the subject that I have ever read says 1BB and they hint that 1.5BB may be achievable. I think the source of 2BB is just confused people.. who mixed up bb and BB.
 12-03-2016, 05:54 AM #17010 djevans Pooh-Bah   Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: springfield, VA Posts: 4,746 Guy told me he made \$100k playing 2/5 - should I believe him? Pretty much what the thread said. I made decent money playing this year, but no where close to what he said. I'm defiantly doing better than most jobs pay but is this possible or is he a liar?? I don't really want to say what my year to date is but I don't think it's possible to make 100k a year playing 2/5...
 12-03-2016, 06:00 AM #17011 ThrirtyThree journeyman     Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 278 Re: Guy told me he made \$100k playing 2/5 - should I believe him? Yeah. It's possible if you play good/run good.
12-03-2016, 06:01 AM   #17012
Dochrohan
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Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Somewhere else
Posts: 4,194
Re: Guy told me he made \$100k playing 2/5 - should I believe him?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by djevans Pretty much what the thread said. I made decent money playing this year, but no where close to what he said. I'm defiantly doing better than most jobs pay but is this possible or is he a liar?? I don't really want to say what my year to date is but I don't think it's possible to make 100k a year playing 2/5...
You can make 100k a year playing \$1/\$2, generally nobody would ever make \$100k in \$1/\$2.

Winrate depends on too much factors to say if you can beat a game for \$100k a year.

You not only need good long hours, you need to run well, you need great tables, the ability to table select, good mental game, good rake structure, a stern tipping habit, and many more other good things going for you.

I would never put weight into somebody saying they made xxx a year, I put more weight into their play. Who gives a flying crap what somebody claims, especially if they are telling it to your face and even more so at a card table.

The majority and I mean right around 99% of players are not going to ever brag about a yearly win to your face online or live. Most of the time you'll find they are full of crap.

Put more weight behind play and less behind talk.

 12-03-2016, 06:07 AM #17013 ValueBluff journeyman   Join Date: Mar 2012 Location: Las Vegas, NV Posts: 371 Re: Guy told me he made \$100k playing 2/5 - should I believe him? 50 hours a week at \$40 an hour is about \$104k in a year. So yes possible.
 12-03-2016, 06:31 AM #17014 Carnivore Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 7,531 Re: Guy told me he made \$100k playing 2/5 - should I believe him? I'm pretty certain I could do it at 1/3 if I played 60 hours a week. My hourly this year was high enough but I averaged 40 hours a week. I'm pretty certain I know a couple of guys who've cleared 100k playing 1/3. They play a ton and they crush.
 12-03-2016, 06:32 AM #17015 ibelieveyouoweme\$80k LLSNL FF Champ '13     Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Wentzylvania baby Posts: 12,851 Re: Guy told me he made \$100k playing 2/5 - should I believe him? Pretty sure my friend has a friend who made \$200K in 2015 playing \$2/\$5 at Parx. On par for well over \$100K this year, but not \$200K.
12-03-2016, 06:45 AM   #17016
johnnyBuz
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Location: Beast Coast
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Re: Guy told me he made \$100k playing 2/5 - should I believe him?

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ibelieveyouoweme\$80k Pretty sure my friend has a friend who made \$200K in 2015 playing \$2/\$5 at Parx. On par for well over \$100K this year, but not \$200K.
I know most of the Parx 2/5 pros and I would be very surprised if that were true. Weekday games average 3-4 tables per night with ~2-3 full-time pros per table. Weekends average ~6-7 tables per night with 1-3 pros per table. Parx 2/5 has seen its hourly expectation go way down in the last 12 months and many of the 2/5 pros have started playing the 1/3 mid-week which is mediocre.

I guess anything is theoretically possible over a 1 year span if you are running +1 or +2 standard deviations above EV.

 12-03-2016, 08:29 AM #17017 Randinho grinder   Join Date: Aug 2008 Location: Vancouver Posts: 420 Re: Guy told me he made \$100k playing 2/5 - should I believe him? No, do not believe the random who told you he has made over \$100k this year. Yes, it is possible.
 12-03-2016, 08:52 AM #17018 venice10 Referee     Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Nowhere special Posts: 24,729 Re: Guy told me he made \$100k playing 2/5 - should I believe him? It is possible to make \$100k/year at 2/5. Squid Face has stated that he makes that approx. every year and has not been challenged on it by others. Keep in mind that he treats it like a job. He's worked many years on his game and apparently plays pretty close to tilt free. As to whether "this guy" is telling you the truth, I'd weigh how frequently I saw him in the room. Unless you are playing in a huge CA room, you should be able to recognize every regular at 2/5 and know when they are in the room. Is he there just about every time you're there or do you see him once in a while? Next I'd look at his play. Since he's "making" more than you, he should be in your notes as a top player. Maybe you don't move when he is at the table, but you should feel like if the table isn't that good, he's likely the reason. If he is a hard worker and you consider him as good or better than you are, then there is no harm in accepting his statement. However, most 2/5 players don't make nearly that much consistently. Even if he is telling you the truth, it may be just over the last 12 months and he was on an extended heater. Most likely, he's just blowing smoke.
 12-03-2016, 09:30 AM #17019 BackDoorFlush veteran   Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 2,171 Re: Guy told me he made \$100k playing 2/5 - should I believe him? The guy probably hit a BBJ for 90 dimes and made 10 playing 2/5. Boom 100K!
 12-03-2016, 09:42 AM #17020 MikeStarr Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Jan 2016 Posts: 7,978 Re: Guy told me he made \$100k playing 2/5 - should I believe him? My personal opinion is that max win rate at 2/5 during the daytime is about \$45/hr and if you play only at peak times its about \$60/hr. I would say only 1% of players can do that. Probably only 2-3% can top \$35-\$40/hr. If he made that much he is clearly one of the best players in your room. So is he one of the very best players in your room? If he is it should be very obvious to you.
 12-03-2016, 09:53 AM #17021 DeathCabForTootie Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: SHR Tunaments Posts: 5,722 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances what I've heard/seen from top end crushers is that the WRs MikeStarr quoted are doable. The volume is the difficult part. The other part is sample size. The crushers I know have those win rates over THOUSANDS of hours. Someone can have a 10bb win rate and just be sun running. A lot can happen over 1k hours. Shoot, I'm gonna wind up at 450 hours or so this year. In my situation as a serious hobbyist, 1k hours is 2 years of play. A lot can change in an ecosystem in 2 years.
12-03-2016, 10:02 AM   #17022
MikeStarr
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Join Date: Jan 2016
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DeathCabForTootie what I've heard/seen from top end crushers is that the WRs MikeStarr quoted are doable. The volume is the difficult part. The other part is sample size. The crushers I know have those win rates over THOUSANDS of hours. Someone can have a 10bb win rate and just be sun running. A lot can happen over 1k hours. Shoot, I'm gonna wind up at 450 hours or so this year. In my situation as a serious hobbyist, 1k hours is 2 years of play. A lot can change in an ecosystem in 2 years.
Doable but VERY rare. That's the key. If this guy really made \$100K playing 2/5 in one year, it should be glowingly obvious to everyone that hes the best player there and that hes playing ALOT. Hes not wasting time playing tournaments twice a week, or taking lots of breaks. Hes grinding day in and day out.

12-03-2016, 10:08 AM   #17023
DeathCabForTootie
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Posts: 5,722
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by MikeStarr Doable but VERY rare. That's the key. If this guy really made \$100K playing 2/5 in one year, it should be glowingly obvious to everyone that hes the best player there and that hes playing ALOT. Hes not wasting time playing tournaments twice a week, or taking lots of breaks. Hes grinding day in and day out.
Very rare Indeed. I'm talking the top 0.1%. Three players I'm thinking of don't play tournaments and don't tilt. The second factor is probably the biggest factor whether someone can long term achieve those results.

 12-03-2016, 10:14 AM #17024 squid face ChatThreadPrez     Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: grabbin c-notes from the money tree Posts: 10,253 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances W/R ceiling Great thing about poke is most people dont know what they dont know. So guessing max w/rs at a 2/5 game is kind of like guessing exactly how many angels you can balance on the head of a pin. If someone is doing something unconventional or bizarre to the rest of us are they a fish? or are they doing some next level sht? I dont know I will say this - I am super lazy about table selection, and seat selection. Ya I will change tables but like I said I generally sit at a table and play my game My last year in vegas after my kid graduated from highschool I committed to a vampire schedule and my win rate went through the roof. I am bored to tears with poker and am having trouble logging hours. In the past I have banged out as many hours as anyone (peak number 2150 in 1 year) Last night was saturday...said screw it and didnt play. So it should be obvious that I am not selective of the "peak hours".my poker log shows almost a perfect balance of hours v days of the week. I also am generally outta the room before 12am again non peak With as many hours as I have logged I think I have a decent grasp of run good v run bad and what that looks like. This year I have run very very badly in large pots where I have gotten the money in exceptionally good and my win rate is the lowest it has been in quite some time it currently stands at 43.10 for the calender year Last edited by squid face; 12-03-2016 at 10:18 AM. Reason: edit last night was friday...im so stoopid i dont know wat day of the week it is
12-03-2016, 10:31 AM   #17025
MikeStarr
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Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by squid face W/R ceiling Great thing about poke is most people dont know what they dont know. So guessing max w/rs at a 2/5 game is kind of like guessing exactly how many angels you can balance on the head of a pin. If someone is doing something unconventional or bizarre to the rest of us are they a fish? or are they doing some next level sht? I dont know I will say this - I am super lazy about table selection, and seat selection. Ya I will change tables but like I said I generally sit at a table and play my game My last year in vegas after my kid graduated from highschool I committed to a vampire schedule and my win rate went through the roof. I am bored to tears with poker and am having trouble logging hours. In the past I have banged out as many hours as anyone (peak number 2150 in 1 year) Last night was saturday...said screw it and didnt play. So it should be obvious that I am not selective of the "peak hours".my poker log shows almost a perfect balance of hours v days of the week. I also am generally outta the room before 12am again non peak With as many hours as I have logged I think I have a decent grasp of run good v run bad and what that looks like. This year I have run very very badly in large pots where I have gotten the money in exceptionally good and my win rate is the lowest it has been in quite some time it currently stands at 43.10 for the calender year
Sounds like you agree with me. You've played a ton of hours in the past but your peak was 2150. Its very very tough to get more than that in 1 year.

You play fairly random hours, however I would include 7P-midnight as peak hours. I keep track of peak vs non peak win rate and include anything after dinner or on weekends as peak hours. You are very good at poker. Your win rate is down but probably not a large amount and stands at \$43.10. Very very few people are making more playing random hours.

If we put take your \$43.10 and multiply times your peak number of hours we get \$92,665. I realize you were probably higher than the \$43.10 when you logged the 2150, but the point is that its very very difficult to hit \$100K in one year at 2/5 but can be done by a very very good player logging tons of hours. Anyone hitting \$100K in one year at 2/5 is going to stand out to everyone paying attention because of how much he wins and how much he plays.

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