Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr
You can figure the EV if you know that someone has a certain hand a certain percentage of the time and a different hand a certain percentage of the time but those hands and those percentages are impossible to know.
I'm really in Mike's camp on this one. Most of the time we have no clue (seriously, *no clue*) what the exact EV (or even close to it) is in *a lot* of situations.
As soon as a pot goes multiway and you have a multitude of possibilities that can happen amongst multiple people over multiple streets, seriously, show your math. Unless you're a super computer, you won't be able to do it. But on top of that, you'll find that all your guesstimes (his range, her range, the chances he overcalls with that but raises with that, but then flats the turn, but what happens when she donks and he folds, or raises, or flats, and oh yeah, there's still that other guy behind you, etc.) you very quickly realize you are grabbing numbers out of your ass regarding percentages. The EV tree becomes very branchy very quickly, with each node having less and less confidence in their numbers.
This is why every multiway/multistreet possibilities HH doesn't simply have a math dude to come in and lay it all out for us (i.e. the EV is *clearly* = $3.50, as shown by the math, /thread).
So, we just do the best we can, relying (admittedly) a lot on our past results to hopefully indicate that we're doing something right (when, admittedly, we could definitely be doing something very wrong).
ETA: FWIW, it would be a shame if Mike got banned / left, imo. The forum needs more dissenting voices; it's healthy, imo.
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Last edited by gobbledygeek; 11-07-2016 at 02:38 PM.