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Old 11-06-2016, 03:40 PM   #16776
Garick
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^ This. Be very, very careful.
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Old 11-06-2016, 03:50 PM   #16777
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You can figure the EV if you know that someone has a certain hand a certain percentage of the time and a different hand a certain percentage of the time but those hands and those percentages are impossible to know. After the fact its real easy to tell yourself you played the hand correctly based on your assumptions of the possible hands and that you are just running bad and keep running into the top end of someone's range. Whats hard to admit to is that you may not be as good at assigning ranges as you think you are and you arent running bad, you are playing bad. Which brings me back to people assuming when they are losing its due to variance as it relieves them of responsibility.

Whether or not anyone thinks I am good, bad or ugly makes no difference to my win rate. It is what it is. I take responsibility for my own play when Im losing and dont just blame it on variance.
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Old 11-06-2016, 04:09 PM   #16778
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Davinho View Post
I try to keep lower sizzings still as a general strategy i dont know if that affects a lot my winrate for example i open 3x, 4x vs limp, 3bet 3.5x ip 4.5x oop

On flops dry texture i like to use my 1/3 pot strategy
I came from an online 6max background and if you are sticking with online strategies to beat a live game then you are playing quite suboptimally.

People like to blame downswings on variance but the fact of the matter is that if you've only played 250hrs at a level you probably aren't that good at it yet. That's the way poker works. Aptitude isn't going to do much for you without experience. Its always funny to hear about new players crushing when there are players who are just as smart or smarter who have been playing that level for 5+ years and are still improving.


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At end of the day, variance exists on both ends. For there to be so many players "running bad," there has to be at least some players that are just running damn good.
LoL @ players running bad. I've never met a player that had a long run bad stretch at 2/5 or below that wasn't absolutely atrocious at poker (everyone thinks they are good of course). I guess I've run hotter than the sun at poker but the funny thing is when I look into the future all I see is more of the same. I also foresee more of the same for all the run bad players that don't make adjustments to their games.
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Old 11-06-2016, 04:33 PM   #16779
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
You can figure the EV if you know that someone has a certain hand a certain percentage of the time and a different hand a certain percentage of the time but those hands and those percentages are impossible to know. After the fact its real easy to tell yourself you played the hand correctly based on your assumptions of the possible hands and that you are just running well and keep running into the bottom end of someone's range or excessively narrowing it. Whats hard to admit to is that you may not be as good at assigning ranges as you think you are and you arent playing well, you are running hot. Which brings me back to people assuming when they are winning its due to skill along as it relieves them of having to admit luck.

Whether or not anyone thinks I am good, bad or ugly makes no difference to my win rate. It is what it is. I take responsibility for my own play when Im losing and dont just blame it on variance.
You can make this argument both ways.

It's really hard to compare winrates and strategies as the table conditions can vary significantly between players, and it's difficult to get meaningful samples live. It's also really hard to convey the live conditions and player reads that correlate to a given decision in an online forum after the fact.
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Old 11-06-2016, 05:27 PM   #16780
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You can make this argument both ways.

It's really hard to compare winrates and strategies as the table conditions can vary significantly between players, and it's difficult to get meaningful samples live. It's also really hard to convey the live conditions and player reads that correlate to a given decision in an online forum after the fact.
I agree 100% with that part.
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Old 11-06-2016, 06:34 PM   #16781
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Please don't discuss HHs ITT. I deleted the derail, but I suspect it was meant for the chat thread. Also consider the Low-Stress Strat thread.
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Old 11-06-2016, 08:35 PM   #16782
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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hey guys im up like 20k at 1-2 and break even in 250 hours at 2-5 why?? I feel im playin good but cant log more than 2 wining session at 2-5... im beating nl100zoom on stars so i think i have the skill to beat tha game but im breakin even pretty sad
I doubt you're actually beating 100 Zoom. Your problem in any case is sample size.
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Old 11-06-2016, 11:26 PM   #16783
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you could always just perma-ban Mike before he gets the thread locked again... just saying
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Old 11-07-2016, 12:12 AM   #16784
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you could always just perma-ban Mike before he gets the thread locked again... just saying
Actually if you scroll back up you'll see that RP started the argument just like he always does, but dont worry, Im no longer responding to him so that will solve that problem. Actually I wont be posting much at all anymore. Its very clear to me that my contribution isnt wanted and Im sure not getting anything out of it so whats the point?

It just boggles my mind because I have people I play with daily who see with their own eyes how well I do that come to me for advice all the time. But whatever. Im not going to lose any sleep over it.
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Old 11-07-2016, 02:26 PM   #16785
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
You can figure the EV if you know that someone has a certain hand a certain percentage of the time and a different hand a certain percentage of the time but those hands and those percentages are impossible to know.
I'm really in Mike's camp on this one. Most of the time we have no clue (seriously, *no clue*) what the exact EV (or even close to it) is in *a lot* of situations.

As soon as a pot goes multiway and you have a multitude of possibilities that can happen amongst multiple people over multiple streets, seriously, show your math. Unless you're a super computer, you won't be able to do it. But on top of that, you'll find that all your guesstimes (his range, her range, the chances he overcalls with that but raises with that, but then flats the turn, but what happens when she donks and he folds, or raises, or flats, and oh yeah, there's still that other guy behind you, etc.) you very quickly realize you are grabbing numbers out of your ass regarding percentages. The EV tree becomes very branchy very quickly, with each node having less and less confidence in their numbers.

This is why every multiway/multistreet possibilities HH doesn't simply have a math dude to come in and lay it all out for us (i.e. the EV is *clearly* = $3.50, as shown by the math, /thread).

So, we just do the best we can, relying (admittedly) a lot on our past results to hopefully indicate that we're doing something right (when, admittedly, we could definitely be doing something very wrong).

ETA: FWIW, it would be a shame if Mike got banned / left, imo. The forum needs more dissenting voices; it's healthy, imo.

GEVisn'tnearlyassimpletocomputeaseveryonethinksG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 11-07-2016 at 02:38 PM.
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Old 11-07-2016, 02:48 PM   #16786
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"Well he started it!!!"

Seriously? Thats your defense?
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Old 11-07-2016, 03:13 PM   #16787
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But to suggest that it is impossible to determine EV and that we are all just running around in circles is pretty absurd. Just you can't do it, does not make it impossible.
The next time a multiway / multistreet situation comes up, I'll remember to page you.

The fact that it's impossivle or not almost isn't issue. *If* almost no one is doing this (again, everyone who is doing the accurate multiway / multistreet EV calcs, don't be shy, chime in with your exact EV calc trees), then I don't think it's fair to dump on someone who isn't.

GcluelessEVcalctreenoobG
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Old 11-07-2016, 03:18 PM   #16788
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I think you're missing the point there in a couple places gg.

The majority of these threads are rather simple and are used for education of newer players or players who are small winners/losers. They aren't threads about wizards doing battle with each other where we throw all pretense of standard play, ranges and calculation out the window. You're right in that we generally don't get all the variables in most threads, but that is more often the fault of the person posting the thread who is not thinking of all the variables. The goal for the people responding to the threads should then be to respond "you pointed out/think of X, did you happen to consider y as well?" The reason every thread isn't bogged down by ev calcs, card removal and suggestions to get on some 5th level thinking war isn't because we can't, it's just often unnecessary.

That's how people learn. Thankfully, some don't want to learn and haven't gotten better in many years and hours of playing poker. That's why the games will always be good.
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Old 11-07-2016, 03:36 PM   #16789
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Fair enough for simple EV calcs (ex. you're facing an all-in and closing the action, etc).

I'm simply arguing that it is highly unlikely anyone is capable of doing anything much more than that at the table (and even off), and yet it is still totally possible to be a winner at this game without doing so. For anyone who disagrees, the proof against this is super easy: simply show up in each strat thread and show your math.

GnotholdingmybreathG
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Old 11-07-2016, 03:42 PM   #16790
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I don't think I explained my point well enough there. My point is that if we're beyond something that is a simple ev calculation in a thread posted by the ~average poster in this forum, giving them a complex range based calculation won't help them. Odds are they won't be able to use that next time they're in a similar spot. If anyone shows up, does their math...they might be right, but who are they helping? Just themselves. So instead of that, we use alternative ways to reach the same conclusion that a player can use as a building block to understanding the game in a more intelligent manner.
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Old 11-07-2016, 03:43 PM   #16791
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Fair enough for simple EV calcs (ex. you're facing an all-in and closing the action, etc).

I'm simply arguing that it is highly unlikely anyone is capable of doing anything much more than that at the table (and even off), and yet it is still totally possible to be a winner at this game without doing so. For anyone who disagrees, the proof against this is super easy: simply show up in each strat thread and show your math.

GnotholdingmybreathG
You know, one way to avoid multiway pots and simplify your decision tree is to thin out the field when you decide to play.
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Old 11-07-2016, 03:58 PM   #16792
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I don't think I explained my point well enough there. My point is that if we're beyond something that is a simple ev calculation in a thread posted by the ~average poster in this forum, giving them a complex range based calculation won't help them. Odds are they won't be able to use that next time they're in a similar spot. If anyone shows up, does their math...they might be right, but who are they helping? Just themselves. So instead of that, we use alternative ways to reach the same conclusion that a player can use as a building block to understanding the game in a more intelligent manner.
Ok, I get what you're saying, and that's fair enough.

I'm basically just chiming in on the MikeStarr vs RP thing.

Ggetaroomyoutwo,amirite?G
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Old 11-07-2016, 03:59 PM   #16793
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You know, one way to avoid multiway pots and simplify your decision tree is to thin out the field when you decide to play.


GlolzG
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Old 11-07-2016, 05:15 PM   #16794
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and when/if it fails I've gained no work experience or skills
Lol, you're doing it wrong then. If you can beat 1/2 NL for 6 bb/hour you can beat NCAAB for $3M/yr
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Old 11-07-2016, 07:14 PM   #16795
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
You can figure the EV if you know that someone has a certain hand a certain percentage of the time and a different hand a certain percentage of the time but those hands and those percentages are impossible to know. After the fact its real easy to tell yourself you played the hand correctly based on your assumptions of the possible hands and that you are just running bad and keep running into the top end of someone's range. Whats hard to admit to is that you may not be as good at assigning ranges as you think you are and you arent running bad, you are playing bad. Which brings me back to people assuming when they are losing its due to variance as it relieves them of responsibility.

Whether or not anyone thinks I am good, bad or ugly makes no difference to my win rate. It is what it is. I take responsibility for my own play when Im losing and dont just blame it on variance.

I'm on board with this as well. It's not to dismiss the importance of doing legit Math / Equity / range analysis work as part of away from the table work. But as I think Skip put it, we can easily fall prey to beating a range into submission.

The point of the away from the table analysis is to identify mistakes not excuse them. And to calibrate our poker mind for future real time decision making.

But it's true that just a little wishful thinking can undermine the fundamental assumptions re: villain's range. One of the best remedies for this is a poker buddy in your player pool who knows many of your villains. Run some spots and your range assumptions by them.

So to Mike's point it is certainly possible and at times even likely that we might misapply the math to sweep some mistakes under the variance rug.


Quote:
Originally Posted by OvertlySexual View Post
You know, one way to avoid multiway pots and simplify your decision tree is to thin out the field when you decide to play.

I'm assuming this was meant in jest given the target.

Last edited by cAmmAndo; 11-07-2016 at 07:22 PM.
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Old 11-07-2016, 07:52 PM   #16796
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Lol, you're doing it wrong then. If you can beat 1/2 NL for 6 bb/hour you can beat NCAAB for $3M/yr
So that's where you've been. Congrats on the good fortunes! I hope your business grows even bigger in the upcoming years.
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Old 11-07-2016, 11:06 PM   #16797
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May or may not be done playing for October, but a nice little +$1640 run over the last 20 hours certainly fixed a few things.


Swingy two months though:



Assuming that's 1/2? Nice to rattle off 3 150bb+ wins in a row.
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Old 11-08-2016, 12:49 AM   #16798
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm up $7k in the last 3 weeks at 1/2 NL 300 max (about 60 hours of play). Time to start a PGC entitled "I am quitting my 6 figure job to crush 1/2"?

[ ] sustainable
[X] have also had back to back to back $1500 losing sessions at 1/2 before
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Old 11-08-2016, 06:02 AM   #16799
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Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post


Assuming that's 1/2? Nice to rattle off 3 150bb+ wins in a row.
Mostly $1/2. We occasionally play $0/5 at the home game. Which is weirdly more like a $1/2 game than a $2/5 game most of the time. Either way it's a nice little run.

But it was all my sick ranging of opponents, nothing to do with variance.
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Old 11-08-2016, 09:21 AM   #16800
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But it was all my sick ranging of opponents, nothing to do with variance.

I see what you did there.

Can you explain the red vs blue in the giraffe?
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