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Old 10-29-2016, 11:43 PM   #16751
YGOchamp
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Finetome View Post
let me put is this way- if you've studied/ become really good at bigo, 5card hi etc and you're playing 2/5 bigo and everyone else is a fish/ new.... that would be the equivalent of playing 5/10+ nl game with a full table of fish which is nonexistent in the entire country.
From somebody who's doing pretty well in 2/5 and 5/10nl and starting to pick up PLO -- where do I even begin learning mixed games?

There's a really soft 25/50 and 50/100 mixed game near me, and whenever I travel I always see the highest stakes game is usually a mixed/limit game playing 6 handed with all recs and no pro's, but I've never played any Stud/Razz/PLO8/BigO and not sure how to learn the strat without actually playing in them (which is very expensive)

I think the next step in my poker career is venturing beyond NLHE
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Old 10-30-2016, 12:59 AM   #16752
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Is the 2/5 NL game in your area really so tough that you can't win $50/hour in that game? And is there a possibility of playing 5/10 NL+ 1-2 days/week?

Assuming that there is a decent 2/5 NL running a lot and also assuming that you could find 5/10 NL+ running 1-2 times a week, you should be able to win 100k+/year without playing 40 hours/week (maybe 30 hours/week will be enough?)

You would need a top shelf winrate though.
2/5 is pillow soft but 100bb cap. 50/hr might be doable with the freedom to pick my schedule and more time to work on my game.

5/10 is probably above me. Runs once or twice a week and generally has a good few strong players. Maybe my winrate could be higher in that game but to me it is not worth the risk and the pain. At 2/5 I basically park my ass in a chair and wait for money. I don't stress over difficult decisions because there aren't many. I don't beat myself up over losses because I am well rolled. I am happy.

I don't really have a desire to go play poker professionally because I know how much harder it is to play full time than part time, and the best case scenario is it would pay a little bit more than a salaried job... for who knows how long... and when/if it fails I've gained no work experience or skills. I just wish I could play more than I do now.
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Old 10-30-2016, 02:44 AM   #16753
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

May or may not be done playing for October, but a nice little +$1640 run over the last 20 hours certainly fixed a few things.


Swingy two months though:

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Old 10-30-2016, 10:29 AM   #16754
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Or just have small life responsibilities. If I didn't have a wife/kids/loans I'd go grind 2-3k hours for a min of 40k and prob up to 100k/year, more if I both ran good and followed the series or moved to newest sinos



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Or you are in early fifties, have decent savings after working in technology all your life, all your kids are finished college and you can live in a country with national health care along with no income tax for poker winnings...

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Old 10-30-2016, 02:33 PM   #16755
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Sol Reader,

How much would you need to be winning per year for you to be happy with your live poker results? You seem to have a lot of expenses because you live in London, so imagine that your "happy number" would be a lot higher than most other people's "happy numbers."
I probably would be happy-ish with 5k/month average, can survive on 4k. 8k is where I feel comfortable and happy and can take a couple of losing months and not worry.

London is really expensive rent and bills alone add up to 3k (I have to pay for my partner, might be better later), and if I eat out or spend any money at all it goes up fast.


re: Mix games

They are a lot harder to learn because unlike NLHE and PLO there aren't lots of site that run it and lots of people that talk strategy about it. People who work on those games tend to keep the information relatively close to themselves. I only learned because I played a bunch on stars and watched a lot of DC vids, and even then I'm probably only okay in a soft game.
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Old 10-31-2016, 11:34 AM   #16756
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post
Sorry to interrupt, but played a sesion last night thought it funny and pertinent to previous discussion.

After all that hand wringing about not wanting variance, I ended up finding and playing a very action 10/25/50 PLO game that became 4 and then 3 handed, playing total around 20 hours, about 7~ of it 3-5 handed. Felt like I got all in like 50 times, and had bought in/rebought 25k~ total.

Ended up losing a little, but up significantly from the nadir. I guess when push comes to shove, a good game is a good game, and I didn't feel scared money at all, and was happy to get money in in what I thought were good spots, which I am happy about.

Before moving to live, I've played a LOT of hands online and have trained myself to not think about money when in a decision and with adrenaline pumping, and I am glad to see that comes out when necessary even though I am worried about gunshy. If it's not clear I am not personally as worried about the losses (I am rolled enough to sustain some shot taking losses), and more worried about how it'd affect my emotional status and game, but I found at one point when I was swinging up and down a lot, a lot of that went away and I was focusing on the decisions without too much consideration about the money. Of course I also had a hard stop loss, so it wasn't like I was ever going to go too overboard, but it did mean I was able to focus on my play.

Not to say I played perfectly, we were all tired from playing quite long, but I feel like that was handled quite well, and I'm quite ready to mix it up in these situations when required.
But isn't this a *little* results oriented? In the end, you lost "a little"; I'm wondering how you would have felt afterwards about this game had you lost your stop loss (which it looks like you were probably in a position to do at one time)?

Ggoodluck!G
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Old 11-02-2016, 09:36 PM   #16757
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

There's been a lot of discussion about standard deviation, that I want to note this.

I use poker income and I decided to try the rungood app.

Turns out that while poker income gives me a standard deviation of around 43-45BB per hour, rungood with the same data measures it at 90-91bb per hour.

Don't know which app has it right and which has it wrong, but it bears keeping in mind whenever those figures are put forward.
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Old 11-02-2016, 09:50 PM   #16758
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by OvertlySexual View Post
There's been a lot of discussion about standard deviation, that I want to note this.

I use poker income and I decided to try the rungood app.

Turns out that while poker income gives me a standard deviation of around 43-45BB per hour, rungood with the same data measures it at 90-91bb per hour.

Don't know which app has it right and which has it wrong, but it bears keeping in mind whenever those figures are put forward.
They are both about the same.
43BB-45BB vs 45BB - 45.5BB
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Old 11-03-2016, 12:34 AM   #16759
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Assuming that you're not trying to make the distinction between BB and bb, some of those apps calculate the standard deviation incorrectly. Bip! has posted about it, and how to correct it.
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Old 11-03-2016, 01:07 AM   #16760
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No, everything is in BB.
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Old 11-03-2016, 02:08 AM   #16761
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

lol standard deviation

not even trying to troll here

focus on the stuff that matters
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Old 11-03-2016, 08:31 AM   #16762
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Assuming that you're not trying to make the distinction between BB and bb, some of those apps calculate the standard deviation incorrectly. Bip! has posted about it, and how to correct it.
Yup. Here's one of the posts:
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So I talked to a couple of other players in my game about their stdev last night. They are both using poker journal and it seems poker journal spits out an errant number in their cases. More work to do - I guess they have to pay $4.99 to export the data and work in excel - TBD if all the poker journal numbers are mis reported low.
If you're interested in STDEV and how it is calculated, there was a very good discussion ITT in December of 2015.
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Old 11-06-2016, 06:41 AM   #16763
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

hey guys im up like 20k at 1-2 and break even in 250 hours at 2-5 why?? I feel im playin good but cant log more than 2 wining session at 2-5... im beating nl100zoom on stars so i think i have the skill to beat tha game but im breakin even pretty sad
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Old 11-06-2016, 06:43 AM   #16764
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hey guys im up like 20k at 1-2 and break even in 250 hours at 2-5 why??
Because variance, that's why.
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Old 11-06-2016, 07:19 AM   #16765
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It's impossible to say really.
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Old 11-06-2016, 09:11 AM   #16766
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Some people love to blame everything on variance. It relieves them of responsibility. Maybe it really is variance and maybe its not. There's no way for us to know without you telling us a lot more detail.

For starters, whats your win rate at 1/2? Saying you're up $20k doesn't mean much on its own.
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Old 11-06-2016, 10:28 AM   #16767
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If you are beating 100NL Zoom on Stars, you are plenty capable of beating 2/5 Live.

Moreover, I was also breakeven on my first 200 hours of 2/5 and that isn't the case any more. Had nothing to do with skill.

The only thing that may play a role skill wise is taking a bit of a time to understand player pool tendencies and ranges.
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Old 11-06-2016, 10:42 AM   #16768
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Originally Posted by OvertlySexual View Post
If you are beating 100NL Zoom on Stars, you are plenty capable of beating 2/5 Live.

Moreover, I was also breakeven on my first 200 hours of 2/5 and that isn't the case any more. Had nothing to do with skill.

The only thing that may play a role skill wise is taking a bit of a time to understand player pool tendencies and ranges.
This is a good point. If you are good enough to beat 100NL online, you should be good enough to beat 2/5 live....BUT....if you play 2/5 full ring live the same was as you play 100NL 6 max online, you will NOT win.
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Old 11-06-2016, 12:23 PM   #16769
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Some people love to blame everything on variance. It relieves them of responsibility. Maybe it really is variance and maybe its not. There's no way for us to know without you telling us a lot more detail.
Same with the other way around, though it's always "skills" not variance.

If you win money --> skill.

If you lose money --> variance.

There are many strategy posts that aren't exactly positive EV decisions, and yet people love to counter with "I am a $xx/hr winner, look at my chart, and therefore I must be right."
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Old 11-06-2016, 12:46 PM   #16770
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Same with the other way around, though it's always "skills" not variance.

If you win money --> skill.

If you lose money --> variance.

There are many strategy posts that aren't exactly positive EV decisions, and yet people love to counter with "I am a $xx/hr winner, look at my chart, and therefore I must be right."
Other than a pure math question like

"Villain went all in and Im getting 1.5:1 with nothing but a flush draw",

there is a lot more going into most decisions than just math and EV decisions.

There's no way to calculate the EV of the majority of decisions. That's where the disagreements about the correct play comes in. If a person makes a lot of decisions that are counter to popular opinion on these boards and they win at a high rate consistently, then they probably know what they are doing and are probably better than the avg poster who disagrees with them all the time. Ive gotten to the point where I barely respond to strat posts anymore because what Im reading in those posts is hilariously bad. Its like being at the poker room and listening to 3-4 random people discussing a hand at the table. Most of the time I just shake my head in amazement and instantly stop wondering how 90+% of players lose money.
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Old 11-06-2016, 01:27 PM   #16771
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This is a good point. If you are good enough to beat 100NL online, you should be good enough to beat 2/5 live....BUT....if you play 2/5 full ring live the same was as you play 100NL 6 max online, you will NOT win.
I try to keep lower sizzings still as a general strategy i dont know if that affects a lot my winrate for example i open 3x, 4x vs limp, 3bet 3.5x ip 4.5x oop

On flops dry texture i like to use my 1/3 pot strategy
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Old 11-06-2016, 01:54 PM   #16772
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I try to keep lower sizzings still as a general strategy i dont know if that affects a lot my winrate for example i open 3x, 4x vs limp, 3bet 3.5x ip 4.5x oop

On flops dry texture i like to use my 1/3 pot strategy
I would suggest that that is a small part of your problem. Live players will call 4-6BB opens all the time. Ive discussed that at length with a friend of mine who prefers a 3x open. His background is stronger in tournaments where smaller opens are normal. Hes slowly coming around to using bigger raises as we play together a lot and he sees my results with bigger raises.

I limit my smaller opens to LP. An EP 3x raise is going to get called 5-6 times way too often for my liking.
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Old 11-06-2016, 02:37 PM   #16773
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My last post on this subject before it veers off.

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There's no way to calculate the EV of the majority of decisions.
This is incorrect. Formulas exist, just matter of assigning variables. Depending on the variables, there could be a wide or narrow range of answers, and that's how we gauge EV and best decisions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
If a person makes a lot of decisions that are counter to popular opinion on these boards and they win at a high rate consistently, then they probably know what they are doing and are probably better than the avg poster who disagrees with them all the time.
But if a person simply respond with "this is what I would do and I won a lot of money" but cannot explain his decision, then that person is really no different.

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Ive gotten to the point where I barely respond to strat posts anymore because what Im reading in those posts is hilariously bad. Its like being at the poker room and listening to 3-4 random people discussing a hand at the table. Most of the time I just shake my head in amazement and instantly stop wondering how 90+% of players lose money.
If you don't know why certain posts are bad, then how are you better?

At end of the day, variance exists on both ends. For there to be so many players "running bad," there has to be at least some players that are just running damn good.

If a person raises 72o UTG and won the last 10x, it would not surprise me that he probably thinks he's a great LAG, not benefactor of positive variance.
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Old 11-06-2016, 03:21 PM   #16774
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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This is incorrect. Formulas exist, just matter of assigning variables. Depending on the variables, there could be a wide or narrow range of answers, and that's how we gauge EV and best decisions.
My sentiments exactly. Mike, you pride yourself on narrowing your opponents range better than most in LLSNL. Sometimes to the point where you say you can put your opponent on one exact hand. If that's the case, how can you not determine EV in these spots you claim you have a handle on?
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Old 11-06-2016, 03:36 PM   #16775
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

This thread is starting to turn into the old thread that got locked.
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