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Old 10-27-2016, 03:12 PM   #16701
Sol Reader
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thanks guys.

The thing is, at this point, I am buying in <1% of my roll already. I think the decision to shift to 2% was a good one, but now my roll has grown to the point where I should be buying in deeper and it'd be safe, but I've been so happy with not having big swings that I'm a little bit gun shy to "move up" so to speak also.

I do think that a more aggressive BRM is reasonable if the losses would not affect you as much. Even though it depends on the person, losing 10k is generally more impactful for most people than losing 1k, even if they are both the same % of your networth, just because the amount equates to more in terms of material goods and experiences you can buy. Illogical? Probably, but I think it's true. For people who can replenish their roll, I think playing with a more aggressive BRM is reasonable, and also for people who play in games with higher bb/100. The games I play in are profitable, but the bb/100 is lower.

I do think 10 BRM is not good for most people, but I think taking calculated shots when the game is extremely good can be good.

The thing with the BRM is it's better to take a % brm instead of a # brm, or like, use an adjuting one. That is to say, you can't just play 5/10 with 20k, but you can if you move down once you have less than 20k. It's always possible to move down, and as long as you're disciplined about it it can be okay to be a bit more aggressive.

The thing for me is that I did have a lot of expenses. For someone without expenses, or has an alternate income, I think it's okay to be a little aggressive. 25 BIs is okay. Not for going pro, though I think. For moving up sure, but only if moving down still allows you to make your rent and expenses.
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Old 10-27-2016, 03:19 PM   #16702
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Everyone should have different expectations. I mostly don't play 1/2 holdem, but I've still put in 250 hours in it while waiting for other games and ~10% of my sessions have been +1k or more. It's just a brag, nothing for anyone to model themselves after.

The best thing is to know how good you are, how good the rest of the players at your table and in your local pool.
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Old 10-27-2016, 03:20 PM   #16703
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Nice post Sol.

Is your 2/5 NL game uncapped or have a large BI? 50K over 400 hours is $125/hr = 25 bb/hr, which seems unreal to me, at least in a 100bb max BI game (if the game plays deep, might be a different story?). Course, there are others who have also boasted similar monster rates being possible, so I'm not saying totally impossible (I'm a nit who probably is incapable of seeing what's possible due to being stuck in my ways). I'm sure you have enough hours under your belt to know what's sustainable for you and what's not, and that of course 400 hours is lolz sample size (I'm assuming you have some pretty dreadful 400 hour sample sizes as well playing a no doubt high variance style?).

Sounds like your new method has been fine to both your bottom line and your mental health. Sacrificing a little poker EV at the expense of a happier life seems like a no-brainer to me.

Ggoodluck!G
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Old 10-27-2016, 03:25 PM   #16704
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If the London games play like say, Florida or Alberta I have no problems seeing people crushing 2/5 or 5/10 for ~20bb/hr. You just have to play where there is a steady stream of people with lots of money. London seems to fit he bill here.

I don't even thnk he's sacrificing poker ev, the mental health aspect makes it +ev, clearly.
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Old 10-27-2016, 03:32 PM   #16705
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I do think my hourly at the PLO game is higher than if I played other games, but only because the mid stakes hold'em has been really bad lately. If it were linear, I'd play lower (say 5/10 or 2/5 PLO) all day every day. Right now the 5/10 is always 5/10/25, with 5k+ stacks from most players, while the next biggest game is a 2/5 with about 1k average stacks, tight players, and not much in between.

The 2/5 game is 2.5k buyin, but lately the game's been really bad. If I could play only 2/5 PLO I would do that.

My hourly at 2/5 NL in the games when I grinded them was probably 80~, but I ran good so I had more. Nowadays it's probably like 50 since it's much tougher, maybe less. The bigger games probably give me 150+ hourly. If the hourly was remotely similar I'd only play the bigger game when it's super soft.
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Old 10-27-2016, 03:53 PM   #16706
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aoFrantic View Post
If the London games play like say, Florida....I have no problems seeing people crushing 2/5 or 5/10 for ~20bb/hr
No.
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Old 10-27-2016, 04:02 PM   #16707
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nice post sol. I would suggest definitely buying in a little deeper in the big game now, ease yourself back into it. Once you catch some sunrun at high stakes it will really help your confidence
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Old 10-27-2016, 05:43 PM   #16708
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sol Reader-Nice to see you posting in this forum.

I can relate very well to your dilemma at hand. The answer is pretty simple. It all comes down your priorities and what you want out of poker. Let's review the options.

Option 1-
Stress free, variance free (Relative) grind at mid-stakes

Option 2-
Maximize earning potential at bigger games

A few things that you said really stuck out to me

1) "My life has improved so drastically since playing with a smaller % of my net worth"
2) "I'm happier and have more money than those spewtard god days"

From my eyes, you had quite a lot to say about the benefits of option 1. You didn't really have much to say about the benefits of option 2- only that your friend is teasing you for taking the easy way out. If you do decide on option 2- there has to be some sort of major benefit to offset the stress and variance. Pride and ego are not nearly enough.
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Old 10-27-2016, 05:47 PM   #16709
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The other issue I see from you second and third posts is game quality

"My hourly at 2/5 NL in the games when I grinded them was probably 80~, but I ran good so I had more. Nowadays it's probably like 50 since it's much tougher, maybe less. The bigger games probably give me 150+ hourly. If the hourly was remotely similar I'd only play the bigger game when it's super soft."

This definitely throws an interesting curve ball into your situation.
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Old 10-27-2016, 06:00 PM   #16710
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
No.
When we're you last in either?
Obviously for Alberta I mean more PLO, but 15-20 (25 might be a stretch) bb/hr is more than achievable in both of these areas with uncapped games. You still have fish buying into 2/5 with 20k in these areas. They're by far the two best poker areas in North America.

Last edited by aoFrantic; 10-27-2016 at 06:06 PM.
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Old 10-27-2016, 06:00 PM   #16711
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It's always tough to drop down in levels. There really should be no shame in doing so though. At the casino I play the biggest game is generally 5/T, yet some of the best players I know play at 2/5 because the games are just that much better. Even so, some players will never drop down even if that means staying in a game with 7 other pros.

I'm reminded of the Bellagio 5/T player that started a thread saying he made $14/hr this past year playing full time. Why put yourself through those swings when you should be able to print money at a faster rate than that in smaller buyin games? It makes no logical sense.

Regarding swings, I feel that if I play a game regularly the swings probably aren't going to affect me that much. However, if I'm unable to play that big of a game regularly (either because it doesn't run much or the lineups are frequently bad) then I'm not going to be able to play optimally regardless of my bankroll.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Is your 2/5 NL game uncapped or have a large BI? 50K over 400 hours is $125/hr = 25 bb/hr, which seems unreal to me, at least in a 100bb max BI game
It's unreal to me that you can't see how this is possible, even in a small buy-in game. We are talking about a 400 hour sample. That is NOTHING. You can not extrapolate long-term winrates based on this data. If a crusher's winrate is $50 to $75 in a super soft 2/5 game then it shouldn't be a stretch at all that they run at $125/hr over 400 hrs. In fact, I know players that have had $20k+ months at 2/5 500cap and it's quite likely that these players are not winning players at all (But play a very loose aggressive swingy style). Heck, I saw a guy make $10k in one long session...then drop $7k....all in the same session. Again, this is 2/5 with a $500 cap.
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Old 10-27-2016, 07:28 PM   #16712
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Am I the only one that gets a kick out of the phrase "printing money?" Maybe it's because of the year I've had, but the poker grind we know it to be is contradictory with the concept of printing money.
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Old 10-27-2016, 07:36 PM   #16713
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aoFrantic View Post
When we're you last in either?
I specifically had Florida in the quote, of which I've lived in for 30 years. There is exactly one regular uncapped game in the entire state under 5/10, and it's a 1/2 in the middle of nowhere.

Only one uncapped 5/10 I can think of (most capped at $2K), and then the 10/25/lol at Isle which I (guess?) is uncapped.

95% of 2/5s are capped at $500, the rest $1000. An exceptional long-term wr in these games is 12bb/hr. Anything >7bb/hr is very good.
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Old 10-27-2016, 07:44 PM   #16714
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Originally Posted by y0l0Theory View Post
This definitely throws an interesting curve ball into your situation.
This is the main issue. If the winrate at higher stakes is only slightly higher, I would be happy playing lower until I have money to blow. The issue is that the winrate at higher stakes can be 3-4x better easily.

Also another issue is that the games will get worse and it's important to save money and also keep game sharp. If I know I can sustain the hourly I have at lower stakes forever, which is likely but not definitely and also doesn't account for inflation, then I'd have no issue, but things change, so there's strong argument for getting as much money now as possible while you still can.
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Old 10-27-2016, 09:20 PM   #16715
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Mental health is important though. FWIW it sounds to me like you were in a tough place, made some sensible decisions, things are a lot better. Now you're getting hungry but are (reasonably) concerned about getting your face kicked in again.

Seems to me like you should take some hours in the bigger game and pick the most favourable times to do so. Set a stop loss. Don't worry about the result because you're 'taking shots' even though from a BRM perspective you can afford to go full time in the bigger game.
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Old 10-27-2016, 09:23 PM   #16716
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Mental health is 100% of this game and there is zero debate on that fact

Variance sucks (and rules sometimes) but without the mental fortitude to handle both sides of it, you're a fish whether you admit it or not
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Old 10-27-2016, 09:41 PM   #16717
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I should probably qualify that I've been playing in those games a lot, and I'm extremely comfortable playing in them, I just haven't been buying in super deep, so it's not really an issue of playing or not playing so much as whether I want to be deep.

When you're playing PLO with 400bbs, a lot of things can go wrong no matter how tight you play.

Homerdash, I'm not too sure what you're trying to say.
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Old 10-27-2016, 11:27 PM   #16718
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Mental health is 100% of this game and there is zero debate on that fact
Wrong, since without poker skill it doesn't matter how mentally skilled you are. Maybe you mean 'without a robust mental game you can never crush poker for a living no matter how good you are'? Which is true but not the same.
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Old 10-28-2016, 11:11 AM   #16719
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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
It's unreal to me that you can't see how this is possible, even in a small buy-in game. We are talking about a 400 hour sample. That is NOTHING. You can not extrapolate long-term winrates based on this data. If a crusher's winrate is $50 to $75 in a super soft 2/5 game then it shouldn't be a stretch at all that they run at $125/hr over 400 hrs. In fact, I know players that have had $20k+ months at 2/5 500cap and it's quite likely that these players are not winning players at all (But play a very loose aggressive swingy style). Heck, I saw a guy make $10k in one long session...then drop $7k....all in the same session. Again, this is 2/5 with a $500 cap.
Yeah, I get that; what I meant is that I doubt this is sustainable long term in a capped game. Anyways, it's irrelevant as it sounds like Sol is in more-or-less uncapped games.

GcluelesscappedgamenoobG
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Old 10-28-2016, 11:57 AM   #16720
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I'd argue that 50% of the game is mental. Keeping focused and avoiding tilt (both winning and losing) and all of that side of it. But the other 50% is poker skill. Hand reading. Math and odds for single spots and ranges, understanding and manipulating table conditions, table selection, etc. Then about 10% is just luck. If you start playing and immediately get hit by the variance hammer you're not likely to continue playing long enough to become a good player. Or even if you are a bit of epic runbad can easily put you out of action.

They're both equally important to becoming a long term winner.
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Old 10-28-2016, 01:58 PM   #16721
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
I specifically had Florida in the quote, of which I've lived in for 30 years. There is exactly one regular uncapped game in the entire state under 5/10, and it's a 1/2 in the middle of nowhere.

Only one uncapped 5/10 I can think of (most capped at $2K), and then the 10/25/lol at Isle which I (guess?) is uncapped.

95% of 2/5s are capped at $500, the rest $1000. An exceptional long-term wr in these games is 12bb/hr. Anything >7bb/hr is very good.
2k capped 5/10 NL games tend to play pretty deep (at least compared o the 1500 capped 5/10 NL games at Commerce and Bellagio). From what I have heard from Florida pros, the 5/10 NL 2k cap games in Florida often have really deep stacks and juicy lineups.
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Old 10-28-2016, 02:26 PM   #16722
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More so for online but there's definitely a physical aspect to the game. People who are in shape physically are far less likely to get burned out then go on tilt or make snap decisions.

So probably something like 80% of the game is half mental.
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Old 10-28-2016, 02:32 PM   #16723
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So 40% of the game is mental?

It's kind of silly to quantify something that is intangible.

If you are a tilt monkey, then 90% of the game for you is probably mental.

If you are rather normal, then a much lower percentage would seem applicable.
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Old 10-28-2016, 02:48 PM   #16724
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Quote:
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2k capped 5/10 NL games tend to play pretty deep (at least compared o the 1500 capped 5/10 NL games at Commerce and Bellagio). From what I have heard from Florida pros, the 5/10 NL 2k cap games in Florida often have really deep stacks and juicy lineups.
ATsai, while this used to be true, 5/10 has really dried up in sfla (and only other place it goes is tampa)

Average stack size is definitely <$2K in most games at Isle. When a 5/10 at HR goes, it can get sorta deep I guess. I mean in these games you'll see one dude on a heater sitting on $4K, sure. But most non regs buy in for $1k and most of the regs are fairly good.

PBKC has the only real good game left, and it mostly runs in the winter months.

Just trying to keep things honest in the wr thread. Not being combative or protective.

More importantly, I constantly see misinformation spread as gospel in this thread. It is clear the poster I was responding to has little insight into present day Florida games, and yet is providing a guidance on WR in them.
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Old 10-28-2016, 02:56 PM   #16725
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Avaritia,

I was referring to the present day games in Florida. I know people who are playing the 5/10 2k cap and 10/25 games. I have also heard that the Florida regs/pros are bad...at least significantly worse than the LA regs/pros (from pros who have had significant sample in LA and Florida)
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