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Old 10-13-2016, 10:03 AM   #16576
Avaritia
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I just thought ATsai was just using a well timed statistics pun.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bias_of_an_estimator

That or he was astonished at all of the energy being spent on these calculations instead of more important things like basic pot odds, bet sizing, and seat selection. Most complex math I focus on is fold equity calculations off the felt, and those are trivial (and much more important/insightful than my standard deviation)
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Old 10-13-2016, 10:28 AM   #16577
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Originally Posted by scrybe View Post
Central Limit Theorem in its weak form states that the average of repeated trials that satisfy certain mixing conditions (i.e., events separated by large time periods are independent) converges (in distribution and probability) to a normal random variable.

So yeah hourly results will converge to a normal distribution but that still doesn't say much about whether that normal distribution mean and SD are useful in predicting future mean and SD.


Come on homie. You've studied some finance--Princeton is like economics central. Central Limit Theorem = lose all your money in the stock market.

And if it is a Gaussian distribution, is there an empirical study across players for this?

Given that trials look different, and stack depth paired w a variable amount to win/lose manifests itself in skewed statistics makes me inclined to think Normality does not hold for live poker (NL, at least, Normality is prob true in Limit)


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Old 10-13-2016, 11:16 AM   #16578
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I struggle to count the pot accurately so I'm not holding out a lot of hope that this will make sense but:

Wouldn't a normal distribution only apply to the actually purely random events in the game?

Your overall experience of variance/swingyness may well not be normally distributed due to all sorts of non-random factors:

- your tilt
- their tilt
- being exploited
- exploiting others
- differing game dynamics over time
- changing relative skill level over time
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Old 10-13-2016, 11:21 AM   #16579
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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Been pretty much playing single table games almost 90% of the times if not more.
I'm assuming there are other lower stake games running (i.e. your game isn't literally the lone table running in the room)? If not, the end is nigh.

Grepent,imoG
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Old 10-13-2016, 11:29 AM   #16580
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At least a couple of us have recently guessed that table selection is far and away the number one factor in winrate (this being a winrate thread).

Would be super interesting if RP had lone table running stats vs multiple table running stats (if there was a boom and post boom in his area).

GwishRPwouldpostgiraffesforbargsandlolzsG

Last edited by AcePlayerDeluxe; 10-13-2016 at 12:09 PM. Reason: Please do not respond to trolling
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Old 10-13-2016, 11:36 AM   #16581
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
I just thought ATsai was just using a well timed statistics pun.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bias_of_an_estimator

That or he was astonished at all of the energy being spent on these calculations instead of more important things like basic pot odds, bet sizing, and seat selection. Most complex math I focus on is fold equity calculations off the felt, and those are trivial (and much more important/insightful than my standard deviation)
These are the best things to work on wrt to WR imo
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Old 10-13-2016, 11:53 AM   #16582
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Originally Posted by Maskk View Post
Come on homie. You've studied some finance--Princeton is like economics central. Central Limit Theorem = lose all your money in the stock market.

And if it is a Gaussian distribution, is there an empirical study across players for this?

Given that trials look different, and stack depth paired w a variable amount to win/lose manifests itself in skewed statistics makes me inclined to think Normality does not hold for live poker (NL, at least, Normality is prob true in Limit)


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to clarify, i am saying that the CLT allows us to say something about the distribution of theaverage payoff per hour, not the distribution of the payoff per hour.

for example, if you repeatedly flip a fair coin 1 million times then you would expect the % of heads to be about 50%. the CLT tells us that the observed % will be approximately*** normally distributed with mean 50% and standard dev = .05%. so you'd expect the observed frequency to be between 49.90% and 50.10% with 95% probability.

the normality argument is for the observed statistic and is a mathematical certainty, but it says nothing about the underlying distribution that generated that statistic. you shouldn't expect the next flip to be normally distributed; that's ridiculous. you should expect it to be distributed like a coin flip.

*** it converges to normality as N -> infinity but 1mm trials is more than enough for effective convergence
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Old 10-13-2016, 11:57 AM   #16583
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does anyone have an online poker db handy that could post a histogram of pot-sizes in BBs?
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Old 10-13-2016, 12:08 PM   #16584
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Any guesses s as to whether a 2/5 game 10% capped at $15 with $5 sit down fee is beatable ?
what do you estimate the average pot size is?

i think you can estimate on average you'll win ~2 hands an hour. so you're going to pay between $20 and $30 an hour in rake. add $1 if you're average session is 5 hrs for the sitdown fee.

if you can beat the table for greater than that then it's going to be profitable. At 2/5 it is doable but depends on the skill level of your opponents.
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Old 10-13-2016, 12:24 PM   #16585
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what do you estimate the average pot size is?

i think you can estimate on average you'll win ~2 hands an hour. so you're going to pay between $20 and $30 an hour in rake. add $1 if you're average session is 5 hrs for the sitdown fee.

if you can beat the table for greater than that then it's going to be profitable. At 2/5 it is doable but depends on the skill level of your opponents.
While factoring in the rake on the hands we are going to win is part of the story, I don't think it's the full story. I think you also have to factor in that when you stack your opponent, he'll typically have far less chips in his stack (due to rake obliterating his stack over the session) than in a normal raked game, so it's difficult to get a handle on how to compare your normal raked game winrate to this game.

i.e. You can't just go, ok, my winrate in a normally raked game at this table is X, so now I just have to figure out if the extra rake I'm paying on my ~2 pots an hour will leave me > 0, cuz your winrate at this table (even factoring in the extra rake on your won pots) ain't gonna be X due to your stacking situations being a lot less profitable.

GhavingdifficultyexplainingmyselfG
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Old 10-13-2016, 01:20 PM   #16586
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I live there as well these days. All the poker action up at MDL? (Have yet to play it)


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Nope, just a bunch of nits with a few spewy MAWG thrown in for yucks.

CONTENT ALERT
Discussion as to distribution of poker w/l is interesting; certainly not normal. I want it to be a Weibull, since that's my favorite!
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Old 10-13-2016, 01:44 PM   #16587
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
While factoring in the rake on the hands we are going to win is part of the story, I don't think it's the full story. I think you also have to factor in that when you stack your opponent, he'll typically have far less chips in his stack (due to rake obliterating his stack over the session) than in a normal raked game, so it's difficult to get a handle on how to compare your normal raked game winrate to this game.

i.e. You can't just go, ok, my winrate in a normally raked game at this table is X, so now I just have to figure out if the extra rake I'm paying on my ~2 pots an hour will leave me > 0, cuz your winrate at this table (even factoring in the extra rake on your won pots) ain't gonna be X due to your stacking situations being a lot less profitable.

GhavingdifficultyexplainingmyselfG


Agreed - you are in a race with the rake.

(and the faster the rake runs, the harder he is to beat)

Last edited by bip!; 10-13-2016 at 01:49 PM.
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Old 10-13-2016, 02:16 PM   #16588
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Originally Posted by scrybe View Post
to clarify, i am saying that the CLT allows us to say something about the distribution of theaverage payoff per hour, not the distribution of the payoff per hour.



for example, if you repeatedly flip a fair coin 1 million times then you would expect the % of heads to be about 50%. the CLT tells us that the observed % will be approximately*** normally distributed with mean 50% and standard dev = .05%. so you'd expect the observed frequency to be between 49.90% and 50.10% with 95% probability.



the normality argument is for the observed statistic and is a mathematical certainty, but it says nothing about the underlying distribution that generated that statistic. you shouldn't expect the next flip to be normally distributed; that's ridiculous. you should expect it to be distributed like a coin flip.



*** it converges to normality as N -> infinity but 1mm trials is more than enough for effective convergence


I am saying that there are likely fat tails, making averages more meaningless. You can easily do nothing for 10 hours then win/lose 300bb in 2 hours, and that's not statistically limited.


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Old 10-13-2016, 02:43 PM   #16589
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I am saying that there are likely fat tails, making averages more meaningless. You can easily do nothing for 10 hours then win/lose 300bb in 2 hours, and that's not statistically limited.


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i think we might be talking two different things. im talking about the distribution of your observed average hourly profit. you seem to be talking about the distribution of hourly profit. they are different things, right?

as to the distribution of w/l, for individual hands i think the beta distribution is a natural choice of model. so i would venture a guess that modeling W/L as a markov process where each innovation is a beta-distribution scaled to an interval of [-1, 1] * effective_stack_size would work pretty well.
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Old 10-13-2016, 02:48 PM   #16590
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CONTENT ALERT
Discussion as to distribution of poker w/l is interesting; certainly not normal. I want it to be a Weibull, since that's my favorite!
wow... that's actually a extremely legit suggestion.
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Old 10-13-2016, 04:23 PM   #16591
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Imo it's a bit silly when people try to change their standard deviation and even a little bit silly to track it for some live games. Pretty much everyone agrees that if you take a player from one game and drop him in a different game that the player's win rate is likely to change, but everyone kind of assumes that standard deviation among all holdem games is going to be similar.

This is especially not true for different buy in structures and games that often run short handed but also true for different player pools. Some buy in structures and blind structures for holdem are so different that they are practically different games and they certainly require different strategies. Same for different player pools.

It's a neat stat to know and if yours is wildly off then you can draw some conclusions from that (maybe) but its usefulness doesn't go much further than that... for me at least. I would certainly never make it my goal to try to change the number. That would just be a byproduct of changing my game for other reasons and if the stat changed enough for me to think that it was my game that changed it and not the million other factors at play then I'd say "oh that's neat" and not do much else.
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Old 10-13-2016, 05:15 PM   #16592
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I personally just try and play my personal best whatever that is. Dont really give a rats ass about sd. I do care about my hourly...but its not the end all. Fact is most people who are winnars would be best served putting down all the apps, quit the mental masturbation, and stop worrying/caring about things they really have zero control over and cranking out some quality hours.

done preachin
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Old 10-13-2016, 05:32 PM   #16593
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i think we might be talking two different things. im talking about the distribution of your observed average hourly profit. you seem to be talking about the distribution of hourly profit. they are different things, right?

as to the distribution of w/l, for individual hands i think the beta distribution is a natural choice of model. so i would venture a guess that modeling W/L as a markov process where each innovation is a beta-distribution scaled to an interval of [-1, 1] * effective_stack_size would work pretty well.
Kindof.

I care about analyzing hourly profit/loss ranges because we assume they have predictive bearing on the future.

NL poker is specifically harder because you can win/lose a stack on every hand, but usually don't. Further, the games can change and odds can change, making standard deviation matter less because I think the distribution in deeper play in non-Gaussian. I think we under-rate how quickly a player used to a lower vol session rate can be upped in SDev via game change (Brag: I take it as a point of pride to up the vol in any live game I play that I am remotely rolled for).

I also think that most our stats do a bad job explaining how we connect with flops--its set/set or nuts/v near nuts on wet board or w/e at 100BB--all the money goes in and someone wins. Thats 0 skill, very volatile, and subject of way too many LLSNL posts/thinking (and are crappy posts). However, "I nailed my gutter/baby flush on the turn when I bet flop, and the V stacked off with one pair in a mediocre spot"
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Old 10-13-2016, 05:34 PM   #16594
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I personally just try and play my personal best whatever that is. Dont really give a rats ass about sd. I do care about my hourly...but its not the end all. Fact is most people who are winnars would be best served putting down all the apps, quit the mental masturbation, and stop worrying/caring about things they really have zero control over and cranking out some quality hours.

done preachin
Preach on Squiddy, preach on.

I intellectually enjoy considering the theories behind Vol in poker.
But agreed that most players would be best spent, logging their sessions, and then spending their time analyzing and working on their game off table. And then getting back to the tables.
Reasons I regret leaving poker fulltime? Because I liked playing 24/7/365. And thinking about it, and doing more about it.

Last edited by Maskk; 10-13-2016 at 05:53 PM.
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Old 10-13-2016, 06:14 PM   #16595
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Here's (almost) 1k hours since I started playing regularly again (almost) a year ago, 10/19/15. Dunno what to glean from it but at least I made 5 figs:







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Old 10-13-2016, 06:22 PM   #16596
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I'm assuming there are other lower stake games running (i.e. your game isn't literally the lone table running in the room)? If not, the end is nigh.



Grepent,imoG

2/5 and 3/5 are like that in most weekday afternoons.
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Old 10-13-2016, 06:39 PM   #16597
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Kindof.

I care about analyzing hourly profit/loss ranges because we assume they have predictive bearing on the future.
Slow pony here. I'm not really sure what you mean by this. What quantity are you measuring exactly and what future quantity does it help to predict?


Maybe we should just let the thread go on and just leave it. Could always take this offline if you are interested. You know where to find me (Romantic Fantasy section of Barnes&Noble).
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Old 10-13-2016, 06:42 PM   #16598
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Here's (almost) 1k hours since I started playing regularly again (almost) a year ago, 10/19/15. Dunno what to glean from it but at least I made 5 figs:







Small sample size but that $1 tip is likely -EV.
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Old 10-14-2016, 04:02 AM   #16599
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Here's (almost) 1k hours since I started playing regularly again (almost) a year ago, 10/19/15. Dunno what to glean from it but at least I made 5 figs:







Very nice. Mostly 1/2 (1/1)?

Looks like you were really crushing until the downswing. What happened there? Great recovery tho!
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Old 10-14-2016, 10:35 AM   #16600
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Way better games than what? Ive never even seen a 5/5 game in Florida. Where was that?
I believe bestbet in jax has all straight blind games: 2/2, 5/5, etc.
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