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Old 10-11-2016, 02:31 PM   #16551
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yeah, I guess it's just really market dependent. I actually thought our room was going to die in 2015 (often would only have a single table going), but since a neighbouring room has recently closed it has seemed to have bounced back fairly nicely (plus gotten some fresh blood in the game). Still, we'll see how long it lasts; the trend around here isn't great.

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Old 10-11-2016, 04:52 PM   #16552
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

In 1453 hours of $1/2, my SD is $263.68/hour and $454.94/session. Hourly = $41.82.

In 813 hours of $2/5, SD is $455.82/hour and $775.07/session. Hourly = $61.74.

Not sure what to make of those numbers other than I play tighter at $2/5 than $1/2. $2/5 sessions also average 40 min shorter than $1/2, mostly due to games breaking early.
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Old 10-11-2016, 04:54 PM   #16553
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Game isn't going to grow, but the end doesn't seem to be near either.

After all, there really isn't much option for most people to socialize.
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Old 10-11-2016, 04:56 PM   #16554
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Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
In 1453 hours of $1/2, my SD is $263.68/hour and $454.94/session. Hourly = $41.82.

In 813 hours of $2/5, SD is $455.82/hour and $775.07/session. Hourly = $61.74.

Not sure what to make of those numbers other than I play tighter at $2/5 than $1/2. $2/5 sessions also average 40 min shorter than $1/2, mostly due to games breaking early.
1/2 hourly win rate over not small sample..

I am in total jaw dropping awe....



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Old 10-11-2016, 10:39 PM   #16555
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
xpost from my Clueless Noob thread:





First 1000 hours: $28.94/hour (9.65 bb/hour, poker is ez)
Second 1000 hours: $27.72/hour (9.24 bb/hour, poker is ez)
Third 1000 hours: $13.74/hour (4.58 bb/hour, huh, poker is hard?)

GitiswhatitisG
Well considering you started many years ago, decent chance it's not just variance and that poker is harder now. :/
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Old 10-11-2016, 11:22 PM   #16556
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Also, Vegas compared to Florida is like night and day.

I played in Florida for a month (WTF 4K HOURS OR GTFO), 5/5 and 5/10 are both way better games. Not even comparable.
Heh, I know it's a typo but Daytona had a great 5/5 back in the day. It was a great stepping stone for me to be able to play that game.

I don't doubt that vegas blows compared to Fl, but I'll broken record myself one more time, hs games are dying at a pretty alarming rate in Fl. I know you and squid both had great experiences in your travels through this glorious state, but I'm telling you, it's nothing compared to 5 years ago.

Really only guaranteed 5/10 games are at Isle. Yea HR can get one going, yea PBKC has a good one over the winter, etc. Just a few years ago though there were prolly 15+ 5/10s going on in the state on a Friday night.

I think this has a true impact on WR, more so than most realize. I know like 80% of my wr is (was?!?) directly linked to game selection.
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Old 10-12-2016, 03:44 AM   #16557
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
In 1453 hours of $1/2, my SD is $263.68/hour and $454.94/session. Hourly = $41.82.

In 813 hours of $2/5, SD is $455.82/hour and $775.07/session. Hourly = $61.74.

Not sure what to make of those numbers other than I play tighter at $2/5 than $1/2. $2/5 sessions also average 40 min shorter than $1/2, mostly due to games breaking early.
Glad to see you are playing 2/5 now. That's a very nice win rate for Vegas 2/5. Good job!

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Old 10-12-2016, 09:52 AM   #16558
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Ha, thanks. The $12/hr end of the scale seems doable; $35/hr, not so much.

And although I'm assuming I have a quite nitty SD (???), I had to laugh at the extents. Doesn't seem much different to me that saying there's a 95% chance I'll win between $0/hr and $100/hr, lolz.

ETA: Course, biggest piece of info was "if the game is still similar over the next 1000 hours"...

GhopingtolowermyexpectationstozeroG
it's interesting that the variability of your true winrate doesn't add more noise to your expected earnings over the next 1000hrs.

A .95 confidence interval for your mean winrate is: $23.5 +/- $6.25.

Assuming $172 / hr standard dev going forward a .95 prediction interval (taking into account the variability in your winrate prediction) over the next 1000 hands is:
$23.5 +/- $12.56

Assuming $172 / hr standard dev going forward but ignoring the variability in your winrate prediction (i.e., we assume the mean is $23.5 with certainty) a prediction interval over next 1000 hands is:
$23.5 +/- $10.88

So if knowing your winrate is 23.5 with 100% certainty would mean you could expect $13/hr to $34/hr instead of $11/hr to $36/hr. so... meh.

I would have intuitively thought that the uncertainty of our winrate would have played a bigger factor in the uncertainty of our results going forward...
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Old 10-12-2016, 10:04 AM   #16559
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it's interesting that the variability of your true winrate doesn't add more noise to your expected earnings over the next 1000hrs.

A .95 confidence interval for your mean winrate is: $23.5 +/- $6.25.

Assuming $172 / hr standard dev going forward a .95 prediction interval (taking into account the variability in your winrate prediction) over the next 1000 hands is:
$23.5 +/- $12.56

Assuming $172 / hr standard dev going forward but ignoring the variability in your winrate prediction (i.e., we assume the mean is $23.5 with certainty) a prediction interval over next 1000 hands is:
$23.5 +/- $10.88

So if knowing your winrate is 23.5 with 100% certainty would mean you could expect $13/hr to $34/hr instead of $11/hr to $36/hr. so... meh.

I would have intuitively thought that the uncertainty of our winrate would have played a bigger factor in the uncertainty of our results going forward...
yep so if you're winrate is estimated over N hours and your predicting an interval over K hours then the adjustment to incorporate the variability of your winrate is:

sqrt(1 + K/N)

so in this case you have sqrt(4/3) = 1.1547

so the standard deviation around your true winrate is 172 / sqrt(1000) = 5.44 and your standard deviation around your observed winrate is 5.44 * 1.1547 = 6.28
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Old 10-12-2016, 11:19 AM   #16560
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Game isn't going to grow, but the end doesn't seem to be near either.
Not sure I'm in agreement with this; my guess is when the end comes it might surprise people how fast it came.

All I can do is base my predictions based on what is trending in my market, which is:

- 2 of the local rooms flat out closing recently, with the rumour being that another in a high profile location will also eventually close (although admittedly I'm not sure if that rumour is true since it seems so outlandish)
- at least 2 local rooms recently severely downsizing number of tables (might be the case at other rooms too but I don't know for sure)
- Limit game (the entry level game for Texas Hold'em as far as I can remember) doesn't run anymore in my room (guessing similar in other local rooms)
- due to lack of tables, nightly tournament in my room has long been cancelled (I'm assuming similar in other downsized rooms)
- my room has once again increased its rake

Nothing trending in a good direction here.

Gwouldn'tsurprisemeatallifpokerwascompletelydeadhe rewithin5years,butI'vealwaysbeenaskyisfallingtypeo fguyG
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Old 10-12-2016, 11:23 AM   #16561
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
I don't doubt that vegas blows compared to Fl, but I'll broken record myself one more time, hs games are dying at a pretty alarming rate in Fl.

I think this has a true impact on WR, more so than most realize. I know like 80% of my wr is (was?!?) directly linked to game selection.
With regards to predicting ones WR moving forward, the state you expect the game to be in >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> all the SD math being shown.

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Old 10-12-2016, 01:49 PM   #16562
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Heh, I know it's a typo but Daytona had a great 5/5 back in the day. It was a great stepping stone for me to be able to play that game.

I don't doubt that vegas blows compared to Fl, but I'll broken record myself one more time, hs games are dying at a pretty alarming rate in Fl. I know you and squid both had great experiences in your travels through this glorious state, but I'm telling you, it's nothing compared to 5 years ago.

Really only guaranteed 5/10 games are at Isle. Yea HR can get one going, yea PBKC has a good one over the winter, etc. Just a few years ago though there were prolly 15+ 5/10s going on in the state on a Friday night.

I think this has a true impact on WR, more so than most realize. I know like 80% of my wr is (was?!?) directly linked to game selection.
As someone that has been regging these games for the last few years- this is definitely true.

Hard Rock usually gets 1 5/10 game at night during weekdays. Isle will have 1 at night and 1 during the day. PBKC rarely gets a game. Most weekday nights- youll have two 5-10 games to choose from. Neither is very good. Lots of good local pros and traveling pros from Germany, Czech, etc.

Game composition is generally all pro and 1 maybe 2 spots.

2-5 is still great here but to pretend like 5-10 in Florida is amazing or something just isnt the case.
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Old 10-12-2016, 02:03 PM   #16563
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I know like 80% of my wr is (was?!?) directly linked to game selection.
It is no coincidence that far and away my worst year on my giraffe was 2015 ($7.90/hr = 2.63 bb/hr over 582 hours), where my room was often down to just a single table the vast majority of those hours.

G(1)tableselection(2)seatselection(3)nothingelsemu chmattersG
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Old 10-12-2016, 02:29 PM   #16564
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
With regards to predicting ones WR moving forward, the state you expect the game to be in >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> all the SD math being shown.

GimoG
yeah this is very true. all this inference power disappears if the distribution has changed enough over the period you sampled and the period you're predicting. i think the best you can really do is look back over a period you feel is consistent with the game state you're in now, then predict your hourly over the next few months. but that's probably not very useful.
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Old 10-12-2016, 02:29 PM   #16565
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G(1)tableselection(2)seatselection(3)nothingelsemu chmattersG
Heh, I know right? I sincerely agree. Funny to think I'm about to hit 2k recorded hours and my first 1K hours, where I knew absolutely nothing, my WR was almost twice that of my current WR in my second thousand hour group.

My go-to strategy has always been 1 best game and 2 best position. I might have to finally learn all this math you kids keep talking about. What's it called again, "pot odds"?
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Old 10-12-2016, 03:39 PM   #16566
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I wish I know what game selection means.

Been pretty much playing single table games almost 90% of the times if not more.

Forces you to be a better player though.
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Old 10-12-2016, 03:39 PM   #16567
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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Not sure I'm in agreement with this; my guess is when the end comes it might surprise people how fast it came.

All I can do is base my predictions based on what is trending in my market, which is:

- 2 of the local rooms flat out closing recently, with the rumour being that another in a high profile location will also eventually close (although admittedly I'm not sure if that rumour is true since it seems so outlandish)
- at least 2 local rooms recently severely downsizing number of tables (might be the case at other rooms too but I don't know for sure)
- Limit game (the entry level game for Texas Hold'em as far as I can remember) doesn't run anymore in my room (guessing similar in other local rooms)
- due to lack of tables, nightly tournament in my room has long been cancelled (I'm assuming similar in other downsized rooms)
- my room has once again increased its rake

Nothing trending in a good direction here.

Gwouldn'tsurprisemeatallifpokerwascompletelydeadhe rewithin5years,butI'vealwaysbeenaskyisfallingtypeo fguyG
Where are you at?

Think growth or decline of your game is tightly coupled with the economic climate in the 50-100 mile radius of your rooms. Need to be close to large population with solid disposable income.

I'm in the burbs just outside of DC. All the tech workers (like me), lawyers, lobbyists etc. Contribute to a very healthy poker economy.



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Old 10-12-2016, 03:58 PM   #16568
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Think growth or decline of your game is tightly coupled with the economic climate in the 50-100 mile radius of your rooms. Need to be close to large population with solid disposable income.
Absolutely. Near Detroit here. During the auto-bailouts there was a huge influx of money to the tables as people took the severance offers, then it dried up quickly. Everything else has been pretty "meh" since then.

But you can see a visible uptick in the numbers of players at the table at the start of the month when the checks come it, then it tails off near the end. Like clockwork.
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Old 10-12-2016, 10:27 PM   #16569
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Originally Posted by ZippyThePinhead View Post
Where are you at?

Think growth or decline of your game is tightly coupled with the economic climate in the 50-100 mile radius of your rooms. Need to be close to large population with solid disposable income.

I'm in the burbs just outside of DC. All the tech workers (like me), lawyers, lobbyists etc. Contribute to a very healthy poker economy.



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I live there as well these days. All the poker action up at MDL? (Have yet to play it)


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Old 10-12-2016, 10:31 PM   #16570
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Absolutely. Near Detroit here. During the auto-bailouts there was a huge influx of money to the tables as people took the severance offers, then it dried up quickly. Everything else has been pretty "meh" since then.



But you can see a visible uptick in the numbers of players at the table at the start of the month when the checks come it, then it tails off near the end. Like clockwork.


There was a known 1-3 "whale" back when I played in st Louis. Owner an apt building. We all knew when rent day was. He'd walk in and attempt to dust off 1-3k into a 300-500buyin game. Also made 2+2 boards for being so incredibly foul at the table that he'd drive other fish away, leaving you with ethical Qs (at least in his specific case, you could be a dick to him and stand up for everyone else and he'd keep giving out $$$)
.

A whale or two can make or break a poker economy.

Springfield IL had a home game I knew about but never played (2.5 hour drive further than a Dino). Lots of rich guys. Some bad lags prob made 80k a year min there playing 1-2x per week. Their whale who sometimes went elsewhere probably dropped 200+/year

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Old 10-13-2016, 07:40 AM   #16571
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IMHO, I think that a lot of people in this thread put way too much emphasis of the math of standard deviation. Maybe I am biased though.
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Old 10-13-2016, 08:19 AM   #16572
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Any guesses s as to whether a 2/5 game 10% capped at $15 with $5 sit down fee is beatable ?
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Old 10-13-2016, 08:31 AM   #16573
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IMHO, I think that a lot of people in this thread put way too much emphasis of the math of standard deviation. Maybe I am biased though.
What bias do you have against standard deviation.

I don't think anyone would say treating hourly results as a stationary process is a perfect one but simple models can be useful as long as the user is aware of the limitations.

I think a lot of people who haven't spent any time studying predictive statistics think that a model that isn't perfect is useless. But this is not the case at all.
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Old 10-13-2016, 08:36 AM   #16574
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IMHO, I think that a lot of people in this thread put way too much emphasis of the math of standard deviation. Maybe I am biased though.


Agreed.
I'm also not sure that poker volatility follows a normal curve. If it doesn't, SDev is guideline that gets you blown up.
Has anyone done work on whether poker w/l tend to be Gaussian or non-Gaussian? If so, what is the proper curve like?

Like AI EV is also a crappy metric--by the time you're AI, a number of things, mathematically, have gone right.
Are there any things that attempt to measure $$ put in ahead paired w wins without showdown?? ((So if you bet 20bb Otr w a flush and are called by a pair, you're+ 20bb. Betting the FD on the turn for 10bb would be -8bb as his pair would be 80% to win).


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Old 10-13-2016, 08:47 AM   #16575
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Agreed.
I'm also not sure that poker volatility follows a normal curve. If it doesn't, SDev is guideline that gets you blown up.
Has anyone done work on whether poker w/l tend to be Gaussian or non-Gaussian? If so, what is the proper curve like?

Like AI EV is also a crappy metric--by the time you're AI, a number of things, mathematically, have gone right.
Are there any things that attempt to measure $$ put in ahead paired w wins without showdown?? ((So if you bet 20bb Otr w a flush and are called by a pair, you're+ 20bb. Betting the FD on the turn for 10bb would be -8bb as his pair would be 80% to win).


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Central Limit Theorem in its weak form states that the average of repeated trials that satisfy certain mixing conditions (i.e., events separated by large time periods are independent) converges (in distribution and probability) to a normal random variable.

So yeah hourly results will converge to a normal distribution but that still doesn't say much about whether that normal distribution mean and SD are useful in predicting future mean and SD.
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