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Old 10-09-2016, 07:12 PM   #16501
MikeStarr
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer View Post
Mike: trying to argue that your sample size is not too small by citing a tiny portion of that small sample size is a bit flawed and... stubborn.

Also pretty sure a lot of people with far larger samples at those games would disagree that they all play more or less the same.
What do you mean by "citing a tiny portion of that sample size"?
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Old 10-09-2016, 07:35 PM   #16502
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Not quite sure I understand this. There's no chance that these young hotshots can make as much at a real job as they can at 2/5 if they put in enough hours.
It's hard to understand because it's not logical. They went breakeven for months and felt poker wasn't as profitable as they thought. Also, moving down from 10/20 to 2/5 hurts one's ego. It can be down right embarrassing to play the smaller game particularly when 10/20 is a small player pool and anytime one of those players sees you they will try to get you to play the bigger game and will take jabs at you for playing the kiddie game. Then of course when you aren't at the table players in the big game will be gossiping and talking all sorts of trash about how you couldn't hang with the big boys etc.

Not to mention that the 2/5 game will feel so small to a 10/20 player that they are far more apt to just gambol gambol than grind.
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Old 10-09-2016, 07:37 PM   #16503
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yea, not saying you are wrong, just saying lol young hotshots.
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Old 10-09-2016, 07:40 PM   #16504
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Yea, not saying you are wrong, just saying lol young hotshots.
Honestly I think it's hard for most people to move down in level..for instance say you have been playing 5/T everyday for the past year and today the game doesn't look that good but the 2/5 game looks like an easy lineup, it's tough to put your ego aside and play the smaller game. I know it was for me.
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Old 10-09-2016, 07:44 PM   #16505
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
Honestly I think it's hard for most people to move down in level..for instance say you have been playing 5/T everyday for the past year and today the game doesn't look that good but the 2/5 game looks like an easy lineup, it's tough to put your ego aside and play the smaller game. I know it was for me.
You are probably right. I pretty much only have 1/2 here, so never have to worry about that.

Although when I go to Vegas I'll play anything from 1/(2/3)-10/20. Then again, I don't have the long term social implications to worry about.
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Old 10-09-2016, 11:08 PM   #16506
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Dream Crusher View Post
It's hard to understand because it's not logical. They went breakeven for months and felt poker wasn't as profitable as they thought. Also, moving down from 10/20 to 2/5 hurts one's ego. It can be down right embarrassing to play the smaller game particularly when 10/20 is a small player pool and anytime one of those players sees you they will try to get you to play the bigger game and will take jabs at you for playing the kiddie game. Then of course when you aren't at the table players in the big game will be gossiping and talking all sorts of trash about how you couldn't hang with the big boys etc.

Not to mention that the 2/5 game will feel so small to a 10/20 player that they are far more apt to just gambol gambol than grind.
This is a pretty good point for those who haven't been in the situation before.

Now that I don't necessarily don't have to jump around, I'll notice that whenever somebody else does that there's always a bunch of gossip/**** talking etc.

It requires some thick skin to be able to handle the -socialEV for +$EV, primarily in smaller rooms/player pools

Last edited by YGOchamp; 10-09-2016 at 11:16 PM.
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Old 10-10-2016, 12:53 AM   #16507
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Even in a bigger room, your higher stakes player pool is going to be pretty small, Dream Crusher's points are very perceptive as to actual player behavior.

I was playing 5-10 a couple of months ago and the regs were joking about someone shot taking and the line they kept brining up was "players don't move back down, they go broke" implying that ego/ internal social anxiety stops 2-5 players from dropping back down even if good BRM would dictate it.

Last edited by kimoser22; 10-10-2016 at 01:00 AM.
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Old 10-10-2016, 01:53 AM   #16508
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Anyone else wanna have a crack at this?

How do we calculate rake paid pet hour in your average 2/5 game , roughly 100deep where rake is 5% capped at $7 vs 10% capped at $15?
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Old 10-10-2016, 02:12 AM   #16509
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

That is literally impossible to know unless you know how many pots per hour you are winning.

You could record the size of every pot you win for a while. Then you'd be able to get an exact number although Lol sample size will never be overcome.
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Old 10-10-2016, 02:18 AM   #16510
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So i got invited to a home game with $1000 max buyin, $20 ante, no blinds and it sounds like its around 7-10 handed. I'm rolled (~$4000 in cash + around $7000 in other investments if need be) for my local casinos $1/2 $300 max game and have a good ($35/h, slightly high from rungood) winrate over a small 330h sample. I've had 1 5 buy in downswing (-$1500), and 4 3.33 buy in downswings. Just curious how much you think I would need for this home game. I would guess around 50k but I have no idea, the players are probably pretty bad but with $140-200 in the pot in antes and $1000 stacks thats basically 10000nl with 10bb no?
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Old 10-10-2016, 02:28 AM   #16511
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When full ring it's basically 60/120 (aka 12,000NL) which would mean you have 8.33bbs. Fortunately, due to stack sizes it should play smaller than that. Good luck! lol
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Old 10-10-2016, 02:30 AM   #16512
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maybe ill take a 1 buy in shot or something, surely its just shove/fold pre yea? could probably just use a shove/fold chart
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Old 10-10-2016, 03:17 AM   #16513
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I don't think anyone would advise you that playing in a game like this where you are severely under rolled is a good idea. You're going to have to shove pretty wide given stack sizes. Your 1 buyin could last you 1 hand.
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Old 10-10-2016, 04:05 AM   #16514
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My first guess would be that you could approximate your bankroll needs as what you would need to play tournaments with a $1000 buy-in. If $1000 is the max, what is the minimum?
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Old 10-10-2016, 04:27 AM   #16515
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sounds like a horrible game to play, also the format is incredibly easy to collude but just out of curiosity what is the rake and how long does the game usually run?
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Old 10-10-2016, 04:33 AM   #16516
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im guessing the minimum would just be $20 to make the antes, no rake its just a crazy home game with asian business owners and runs from like 11pm-4am some weekend nights, one of the asian guys who plays at the casino with me invited me
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Old 10-10-2016, 06:39 AM   #16517
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I recently played at about 15 different rooms over a 6 week or so period. S. Florida, Naples, Tampa, Vegas, SF and Seattle. The games had subtle differences but the differences weren't big enough to make any difference in my game or my results.

Everyone here is not an idiot but they are very stubborn. But whatever.
Ive got several thousand hours in vegas games and am well over 1k hours in florida games. I can state for a fact that they play VERY VERY differently.

I also know a bunch o pros who have played in both locales who are top shelf players who will agree with this statement. Two young guns come to mind

Paging Rob Farha and Taylor Cushlash
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Old 10-10-2016, 08:28 AM   #16518
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you care what anyone in the poker room thinks of you in regards to the stake of the game you play, you care way too much about stuff that completely doesn't matter.

Also, Vegas compared to Florida is like night and day.

I played in Florida for a month (WTF 4K HOURS OR GTFO), 5/5 and 5/10 are both way better games. Not even comparable.
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Old 10-10-2016, 08:38 AM   #16519
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If you care what anyone in the poker room thinks of you in regards to the stake of the game you play, you care way too much about stuff that completely doesn't matter.

Also, Vegas compared to Florida is like night and day.

I played in Florida for a month (WTF 4K HOURS OR GTFO), 5/5 and 5/10 are both way better games. Not even comparable.
Way better games than what? Ive never even seen a 5/5 game in Florida. Where was that?
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Old 10-10-2016, 09:02 AM   #16520
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Way better games than what? Ive never even seen a 5/5 game in Florida. Where was that?
He's comparing Vegas games to Florida games.

Pretty sure his reference to a $5/5 game was a typo.
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Old 10-10-2016, 09:20 AM   #16521
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I've never even seen a 5/5 game in Vegas! I've seen some 1/1 games.
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Old 10-10-2016, 09:21 AM   #16522
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When I was in Vegas the 2/5 games did seem tougher than the Florida games, but the 1/3 games in Vegas were a goldmine. Especially anywhere that had a 2/5 game running. I mention that because I was shocked at how few games were actually running in Vegas of all places. At least during the daytime.
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Old 10-10-2016, 11:49 AM   #16523
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hey guys have questions on this since this is about winrates. Also want to ask about location as well. I play online poker and relocated outside the us a while back. However, i was primarily an sng player. Basically the games are way too tough. As many of you know, online poker is much harder than many years ago. And playing on sites like pokerstars is where the best players play.




I played live poker back in 2012 for a few months back in vegas. However, i mostly played 1/3nl. I believe my win rate was around 24/hr or so and this was about 410 hours total in around a 2.5 month span. I played lot of poker during this time. However, poker in vegas such as low stakes as in 1/3nl probably is a bit tougher than it was around 2012? I still recalled back then when i was there, i was pretty shocked that there wasn't even much 2/5 games that ran back then. However when i was there, it was basically low season in vegas for poker so thats why.




I'm from NY originally. What would probably be the best option to play live poker? I use to play at borgata and taj many years ago but this was 1/2nl just playing it for fun etc. The other thing is at borgata, back then i would be able to get 2 free rooms a night and at taj mahal as well so i get comped rooms. However, for those of you that play full time live, i assume all of you drive to the casino etc? I assume no one has an apartment that is either very close walking distance or just a bus ride away? I know in the east coast, the best poker rooms are borgata, parx and maryland live right?



I believe most people who play at borgata probably live in a place called brignantine i believe? What about places like parx or maryland live? Do all of these locations require a car no matter what? I did believe i read someone mentioned not on this forum i think that they rented an apartment or condo very close to parx or maryland live and it was walking distance. Does anyone know about this? Also for the east coast, the best places would probably be maryland live, borgata and then parx in that order? What about sands or those other east coast casinos? I still remember foxwoods and mohegan were pretty big casinos but for poker, they not good places right? Also both these locations are pretty much in middle of nowhere i believe. I went there back then but mostly went to atlantic city.



Also in vegas, are there apartments where you can either walk to the casino or take a bus ride there that isn't too long etc? I had stayed in hotel during my stay in vegas so it was either walking or bus ride which was decent many years ago. Basically from the information i gather back then, its either those expensive strip condos which are very expensive... or those extended stay places where most of them are shady and bad areas right? But there really isn't something right in the middle? Back then i recalled people mentioned what you are looking for is the meridian condos or something like blair house suites etc. I think they were $1200 and under or so? Of course i read lot of people live 15 minute drive away in a nice vegas area away from the strip and pay much less. But for someone who won't have a car, thoughts on this?

Last edited by PaulyJames200x; 10-10-2016 at 12:00 PM.
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Old 10-10-2016, 11:57 AM   #16524
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As for winrates, I haven't been to a casino in a while. But are the top regs at 2/5 making around 50/hr? Im also curious but what are the best regs making at say 1/3nl in vegas now? I think many years ago people say at 1/3nl, best regs probably make 35/hr. But someone who is a solid reg probably make 21/hr? Also im very curious what is considered a typical day for win/loss for someone who plays 2/5nl nowadays? I remembered when i played 1/3nl... most of my days were between -$600 to +$600 most of the time. For someone that plays 2/5nl, you would get -$1500 - $1500 days? Now if you play on the tighter side, its probably between -$500 to $500? Also what is considered a normal downswing at 2/5nl? When i played 1/3nl, i recalled the biggest downswing i had was $2300 i believe. I did buyin for $400 so 133 bb etc. Do any solid players have 20 buyin downswings? Most importantly, for those of you who play 2/5, do most of you buyin 60bb, 100bb or more? I always felt 100bb was a bit short in live games... but this was in 1/2 or 1/3nl of course where pf sizing is much bigger. I read someone here mentioned he had 50 buyin downswing at 2/5nl and was considered solid player by others. I assume this is not normal and very rare? I'm assuming 10 buyin downswing would be very standard?



The other thing is when i look at pokerbravolive, is there a reason why most poker rooms can't even get 5/10nl going? I mainly look at the vegas room, bellagio, aria, wynn, venetian and on the east coast, borgata, parx and maryland live. It seems like only bellagio and wynn has 5/10nl and up that runs. Venetian almost never and aria is mostly 1/3 and 2/5nl except when they have those high limit games which are not nl. But is it true poker in vegas is probably the worst option? I always hear people say vegas is the worst place to play poker. Is this true now? I know it was a few year ago when few people mentioned this.



I look at borgata... i rarely see a 5/10nl that runs on the weekdays. I mean how can the premier poker room on the east coast not have 5/10nl running on a weekday even at night? Its mostly 1/2 and 2/5nl. Parx is very similar as well with 1/2 and 2/5. They do seem to have 10/10nl but even that doesn't run that often. Maryland live however has much more poker games it seems and does have 5/10nl but usually 1 table max. Of course on friday and weekends, yes you will have 5/10nl and up at these casinos. What im wondering is... does that mean there really aren't that many 5/10nl+ pros and up? Looking at vegas bravo poker live, bellagio has 5/10 and 10/20nl so they have the most pros. Then you have wynn. But what are the higher stakes vegas pros doing the week? However, I believe commerce in los angeles is where the highest stakes games are played. But the issue is how high is it? Isn't it mostly 5/10nl mostly and not much 10/20? I also know that is where limit holdem players plays since they play 40/80 there and up. But since its a no limit thread, no point of mentioning this. Is LA still the poker capital of the world?



But on the east coast, what are the higher stakes live pros doing during the week? Playing 2/5nl? Home games etc? The other thing is this forum seem to have a lot of very good live players. Yet most of them's regular poker game is 2/5? That to me is just a bit shocking if you know what i mean. The thing is are there lesser 5/10nl games that run because 2/5 regs don't want big downswings or want to play that high? Or most of them don't have that much money to play it? Because im wondering how many 5/10nl+ pros are even out there on the east coast and on the west coast. Im starting to think the number might be less than 75



Also for winrates, what is considered a goodrate at 1/3nl, 2/5nl and 5/10nl nowadays? I remember at 1/2nl back few years ago, 20/hr was considered crushing. So 1/3nl a good winrate is probably $21hr or 7bb? 2/5nl is probably $25-$30 at 5-6bb. And for 5/10nl... $30-$40 so 3-4bb? Im guessing a very good but not elite 5/10nl reg makes $75/hr. But an elite is probably $100/hr? For 2/5nl, probably the elite reg makes $65hr? The very good but not yet elite is $50/hr? And for the people who play full time, would it be right for me to make an estimate that solid regs but not elite regs are making around this a year?




1/3nl $20000-$40000

2/5nl $30000-$60000

5/10nl $40000- $70000

Last edited by Garick; 10-10-2016 at 12:42 PM. Reason: got rid of eye-searing bolding of the whole post
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Old 10-10-2016, 12:41 PM   #16525
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just to let everyone know, we've had our first official action on the rules of the thread since re-opening.

If you saw a post that said "X sample size is a joke and "get over yourself" before it was deleted, it has led to a thread banishment. I mention this because I want everyone to realize that 1) we're serious about these rules and 2) the middle part of the post being useful information is not enough to make attacks OK.

Not trying to make an object lesson here, but since we've got one, I hope it at least serves a purpose.
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