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Old 10-08-2016, 11:00 PM   #16476
johnnyBuz
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Someone had to know I would pop in right about now, right?

My win rate after 1100 hours of 2/5 is 8.3 BBs/hr
My StdDev is 50.5 BB/hr (calculations verified by Bip!)

I find it hilarious that people tell me over and over that my lines arent good and at the same time people tell me low variance style poker isn't very profitable.

Low volatility style can be pretty profitable if you know what you're doing and are good at it. Lets not forget everyone who says you have to buy in full or you lose lots of EV. Another untruth.
Step off the soap box this isn't a personal blog. If I recall correctly you also play in some extremely shallow games based on your HH's where every hand seems to be $350-400 effective at 2/5. You can't compare your style to someone else playing in games where everyone on the table has $1000+ at 2/5. It's an apples-to-oranges comparison.

FWIW, your lines aren't good but that's beside the point.

Last edited by johnnyBuz; 10-08-2016 at 11:05 PM.
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Old 10-09-2016, 06:22 AM   #16477
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MikeStarr; I'm not saying your lines aren't good. You've certainly got more live experience than me.

My only concern is that 1,100hrs is only 33,000 hands. Playing online I've had major sun runs that lasted twice as long. I've had downswings of 50,0000 hands.

I spent 2 million hands trying to find ways to avoid the downswings but concluded there's no dodging them completely. All you can do is make the most money you can when you can and hope it is enough to carry you through the inevitable times when you just can't win.

I had hoped live wold be soft enough that downswings didn't exist for good players but reading this thread I see players I know are better than me reporting significant downswings.

The difficulty live is that the long-run comes around so slowly it is very hard to tell if you're actually winning. I won't be happy till I hit a real downswing and come out the other side with my BR intact.
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Old 10-09-2016, 08:38 AM   #16478
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Session volatility of multi-hour sessions often masks hourly Vol rate


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Old 10-09-2016, 08:51 AM   #16479
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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz View Post
Step off the soap box this isn't a personal blog. If I recall correctly you also play in some extremely shallow games based on your HH's where every hand seems to be $350-400 effective at 2/5. You can't compare your style to someone else playing in games where everyone on the table has $1000+ at 2/5. It's an apples-to-oranges comparison.

FWIW, your lines aren't good but that's beside the point.
What does me disproving a statement someone made have to do with this being my personal blog? Someone made a statement that something is impossible. Its something that I have proven IS possible.

He said "I think a realistic hourly SDev for poker is going to be a min of 100bb, prob more for those w higher W/Rates (as it's unlikely a low Vol style is as profitable in the current environments of midsttakes)"

There is nothing in there that talks about deep stacked games.

Ive played in 2/5 games all over the country and the majority of them (at least during the daytime when I play) are not deep stacked so dont act like deep stacked games are the standard and nobody else has access to 100BB max buy in games. Even if the game you play is deep stack, it can still be beaten handily playing a low variance game.
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Old 10-09-2016, 08:54 AM   #16480
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"Realistic" is a key word there. You've proven that one person has done it, that's far proving his belief wrong.
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Old 10-09-2016, 09:13 AM   #16481
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MikeStarr; I'm not saying your lines aren't good. You've certainly got more live experience than me.

My only concern is that 1,100hrs is only 33,000 hands. Playing online I've had major sun runs that lasted twice as long. I've had downswings of 50,0000 hands.

I spent 2 million hands trying to find ways to avoid the downswings but concluded there's no dodging them completely. All you can do is make the most money you can when you can and hope it is enough to carry you through the inevitable times when you just can't win.

I had hoped live wold be soft enough that downswings didn't exist for good players but reading this thread I see players I know are better than me reporting significant downswings.

The difficulty live is that the long-run comes around so slowly it is very hard to tell if you're actually winning. I won't be happy till I hit a real downswing and come out the other side with my BR intact.
I played over a million hands online also. There is absolutely no comparison. Its a totally different game. You cant compare downswings between the two. Most of the people experiencing large downswings playing live have not made correct adjustments to live play whether they realize it or not.

Its been a few months back so I forget the exact numbers but I went thru a stretch over 2-3 weeks where I lost like 16-18 all ins where I was 70%+ favorite and I lost 2 out of 2 coin flips during that same time frame. A stat expert friend of mine calculated the odds of that happening at over 5,000,000:1. Suffice it to say that a run like that doesnt happen often. I still won money during that time frame......because live play is so soft that I was winning enough money on standard hands to make up for all of those all ins that I lost.

A great Major league baseball hitter only gets a hit about 30% of the time over the long run. Against major league pitching he can easily go on runs of a month or more where it seems like he cant get a hit to save his life. But if you put him up against "AA" minor league pitching, his edge is so great that it would be almost impossible for him to go more than a game or two without crushing the ball. The "long run" is much shorter when his edge is much bigger. Thats the difference between online and live poker
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Old 10-09-2016, 11:14 AM   #16482
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^ thanks MikeStarr, that's what I'm hoping is true for sure. Certainly my live game is softer than anything I can find online except the play money games, and that's a close one
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Old 10-09-2016, 11:35 AM   #16483
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I played over a million hands online also. There is absolutely no comparison. Its a totally different game. You cant compare downswings between the two. Most of the people experiencing large downswings playing live have not made correct adjustments to live play whether they realize it or not.



Its been a few months back so I forget the exact numbers but I went thru a stretch over 2-3 weeks where I lost like 16-18 all ins where I was 70%+ favorite and I lost 2 out of 2 coin flips during that same time frame. A stat expert friend of mine calculated the odds of that happening at over 5,000,000:1. Suffice it to say that a run like that doesnt happen often. I still won money during that time frame......because live play is so soft that I was winning enough money on standard hands to make up for all of those all ins that I lost.



A great Major league baseball hitter only gets a hit about 30% of the time over the long run. Against major league pitching he can easily go on runs of a month or more where it seems like he cant get a hit to save his life. But if you put him up against "AA" minor league pitching, his edge is so great that it would be almost impossible for him to go more than a game or two without crushing the ball. The "long run" is much shorter when his edge is much bigger. Thats the difference between online and live poker


What are the live adjustments that you think most people aren't making?

Also, if your game is that soft, that is prob a huge unforeseen part of your wr. A good two players could severely lower your rate and make it more volatile.


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Old 10-09-2016, 12:13 PM   #16484
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What are the live adjustments that you think most people aren't making?

Also, if your game is that soft, that is prob a huge unforeseen part of your wr. A good two players could severely lower your rate and make it more volatile.


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Why do we assume the game is soft just because I'm am able to beat it with low volatility? I play mostly during the day time and the games are much softer in the evening and on weekends (although variance is also higher at those times).

Based on the HHs I see here:

People raise preflop too much especially in EP. This is most always correct in online 6 max but not in full ring live games where you will get called by hands that dominate you too often.

People play too passively post flop stating "you'll never get called by worse". I find that to be completely untrue.
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Old 10-09-2016, 12:45 PM   #16485
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First sentence answered by last paragraph
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Old 10-09-2016, 12:50 PM   #16486
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Why do we assume the game is soft just because I'm am able to beat it with low volatility? I play mostly during the day time and the games are much softer in the evening and on weekends (although variance is also higher at those times).
OR, your game is a lot softer than you realize, even during the day. So the recommendations that apply *correctly* to other games aren't the optimal ones for your game.

I don't know, what's more likely?:

A) Everyone here is an idiot and wrong.

B) You're wrong and either you're just in an outlier of a game or otherwise running insanely well


People underestimate the effect of game conditions on their WR's and results all the time. I have two basic pools that I get to play in, a local home game / charity room circuit with a bunch of degenerate gambers, and a handful of casinos with more typical LLSNL players. When I look at the difference between the $1/2 NLHE in each pool, the correct adjustments, and my winrates, are night and day different. Lines that work in the casino and will work at almost any casino anywhere in the country get murdered in the home game and vice versa.

I have 1000+ hour samples interleaved of the two pools (as in, some days I played in one, some days in the other, so we're not comparing a new player to a veteran's results) and it's really obvious how differently they play. (I'll have to make a chart of that.)
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Old 10-09-2016, 01:03 PM   #16487
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I recently played at about 15 different rooms over a 6 week or so period. S. Florida, Naples, Tampa, Vegas, SF and Seattle. The games had subtle differences but the differences weren't big enough to make any difference in my game or my results.

Everyone here is not an idiot but they are very stubborn. But whatever.
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Old 10-09-2016, 01:21 PM   #16488
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Yes, very stubborn indeed.

This is another reason why I want to collect and compare a whole bunch of live data. Room/region/condition effects.
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Old 10-09-2016, 02:10 PM   #16489
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I certainly feel like my live game is softer than a lot of the games I read about on here. Then I'm UK based and we maybe haven't had as big a cash game scene thing for as long. Most Brits only know of poker tournaments, I always have to explain what it is I actually play!
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Old 10-09-2016, 02:59 PM   #16490
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I'd be cool with giving Angrist my data for a pooled analysis. Not sure how well it would work though since each players wr would be different. Probably some good inferences to be made though.
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Old 10-09-2016, 03:28 PM   #16491
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Originally Posted by day'n'night View Post
roll advised to play a $5/$10/$25 game with 4 competent players, 1-2 whales, and the rest rec/fish?
Here's some advice which goes against conventional wisdom. If you don't want to spend the rest of your life playing $2-5 take a shot. Especially with $2-5 win rates declining. The only way to keep up is to move up. Get someone to buy pieces. You may find the bigger game to be softer since the biggest game is often the only one with players who don't care about money, albeit the regs will be tougher.
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Old 10-09-2016, 04:38 PM   #16492
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Here's some advice which goes against conventional wisdom. If you don't want to spend the rest of your life playing $2-5 take a shot. Especially with $2-5 win rates declining. The only way to keep up is to move up. Get someone to buy pieces. You may find the bigger game to be softer since the biggest game is often the only one with players who don't care about money, albeit the regs will be tougher.
Your advice to roll the dice and play as high as possible might have some merit if the questioner needs to make a lot of money at poker and doesn't care about busting his roll.

But is that really his priority? Or is busting his roll much toof big a risk for too little gain of potentially making more at poker?

There is nothing wrong with the occasional shot-taking at juicy bigger games, but playing the biggest game in the house at all times regardless of BRM is a very common way for otherwise solid poker pros to go busto.
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Old 10-09-2016, 04:45 PM   #16493
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Mike: trying to argue that your sample size is not too small by citing a tiny portion of that small sample size is a bit flawed and... stubborn.

Also pretty sure a lot of people with far larger samples at those games would disagree that they all play more or less the same.
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Old 10-09-2016, 05:00 PM   #16494
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MikeStarr,

I really don't think you can prove what you are saying about a certain achievable win rate below some standard deviation number with a measly 1100 hour sample.

I have said this earlier in this thread, but any sample size under 2k hours is not really worth discussing. Even a 2k hour sample size doesn't say that much.

As far as the other off topic stuff, go knock yourself out in the strat threadS if you want to prove that your lines are good. Or just talk strat with the one best players in your player pool and ignore the LLSNL strat forums altogether if you think that the LLSNL strat posters all suck.
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Old 10-09-2016, 05:11 PM   #16495
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For the record, Im not trying to play some ultra low variance strategy. Im just playing the best way I know how and my StdDev number is what it is. I wouldnt even know it was low if other people hadnt posted theirs.
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Old 10-09-2016, 05:37 PM   #16496
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Also, if your game is that soft, that is prob a huge unforeseen part of your wr. A good two players could severely lower your rate and make it more volatile.
So much truth to this statement.

Live afternoon game is all about being the alpha dog, because there is simply no game selection.
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Old 10-09-2016, 05:44 PM   #16497
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Would anyone mind humoring me here to help settle a debate? Let's say you
Have a 10k life roll and expenses were 1k per month living in Vegas. You
Are a long term winner at 1/2 for 8bb/hr. At what points would you
Jump from 1/2-1/3 and 1/3-2/5? Thanks
I don't know anyone with 1k of expenses in vegas. More like $1500-2k. I would say you have a bankroll of 4-6k. So you should play until you have a BR of 10k to play take $500 shots at 2:5
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Old 10-09-2016, 05:59 PM   #16498
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I said it many times before and I'll say it again.

Only thing I have ever seen from you is your claim of WR in these games, but you have never really demonstrated in any of your strategy posts that you are capable of living up to such claim.

You shouldn't be surprised that people are doubting you.

However, if you are indeed as good as you claim WR is, then what incentive do you have to prove anyone otherwise? Why does it matter that people in this forum, or anywhere for that matter, think you are a bad player?
How do I live up to my "claims" other than to continue to win? When I was at 200 hours I was told I was on a heater and to wait until I had 500+ hours. When I was at 500 hours I was told my winning was good variance and to wait until I had 1000 hours. Now Im over 1100 hours and people still scoff and tell me to see where Im at after 2000 hours. I played over a million hands online at a nice win rate. Its laughable at this point. I've demonstrated plenty in the strat forums but because you dont believe my lines wont work (even though they work again and again) you think I havent demonstrated anything. Ive said it before and I will say it again. Its entirely possible that there is more than one cookie cutter way to win at poker.

It really doesnt matter what anyone thinks other than the fact that in general people like to be respected.
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Old 10-09-2016, 07:03 PM   #16499
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Here's some advice which goes against conventional wisdom. If you don't want to spend the rest of your life playing $2-5 take a shot. Especially with $2-5 win rates declining. The only way to keep up is to move up. Get someone to buy pieces. You may find the bigger game to be softer since the biggest game is often the only one with players who don't care about money, albeit the regs will be tougher.
This is somewhat related to the point I made the other day about aggressive shot taking. If you are a player that has beaten 5/T in the past then perhaps aggressive shot taking is the best course. However, for most new players I would advise against this. I've known talented young 2/5 players who ran hot and moved up to T/20 (biggest games offered in that room). Then after months and months of running at breakeven (or worse) at 5/T+ they quit poker altogether. Fact was they weren't experienced enough to be profitable at these higher levels. They could have been making a killing at 2/5 during this time. After playing big games, 2/5 doesn't have the same allure, regardless of possible attainable winrates which is why they quit poker.
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Old 10-09-2016, 07:12 PM   #16500
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This is somewhat related to the point I made the other day about aggressive shot taking. If you are a player that has beaten 5/T in the past then perhaps aggressive shot taking is the best course. However, for most new players I would advise against this. I've known talented young 2/5 players who ran hot and moved up to T/20 (biggest games offered in that room). Then after months and months of running at breakeven (or worse) at 5/T+ they quit poker altogether. Fact was they weren't experienced enough to be profitable at these higher levels. They could have been making a killing at 2/5 during this time. After playing big games, 2/5 doesn't have the same allure, regardless of possible attainable winrates which is why they quit poker.
Not quite sure I understand this. There's no chance that these young hotshots can make as much at a real job as they can at 2/5 if they put in enough hours.
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