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Old 10-03-2016, 06:57 PM   #16301
MikeStarr
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer View Post
Very few people use the word "variance" to mean how far you are currently from your true win rate. It's mostly used to mean the (mostly negative) swings in your bankroll.
How can variance mean how far you currently are from your true win rate when people are always talking about how you can almost never know your true win rate?
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Old 10-03-2016, 07:00 PM   #16302
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

OK I guess what I'm really trying to do is find a buy-in + strategy combination with which I can achieve an acceptable (to me) risk of ruin with the smallest possible bankroll whilst still standing a chance of actually winning.

Reason is that I'm trying to find a balance between two things:

1) My desire to improve my game and find out if I can actually win over a meaningful sample.
2) Pressure from family/friends for me to a) not lose much money b) find out if I can win ASAP and if not then stop spending so much time on poker!

It is a fine line to tread.

I feel like I'm finally feeling my way to a satisfactory solution but I guess only time and hands played will tell.
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Old 10-03-2016, 07:03 PM   #16303
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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How can variance mean how far you currently are from your true win rate when people are always talking about how you can almost never know your true win rate?
My assumption is these variables are all unknown except in the rear view mirror once you played enough hands. Till then, and whenever you're actually going to play more hands now or in future then they are just concepts that help you think about the nature of the task. They can't be measured or calculated in real time.
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Old 10-03-2016, 07:06 PM   #16304
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Best you could do is estimate true win rate from previous experience and then you can plot your results and measure variance from where you'd be if you just won steadily at your estimated win rate.
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Old 10-03-2016, 08:00 PM   #16305
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Variance gets misused as a term a ton.

It simply means deviation from expected (average) result.

But a lot of people use variance to mean "downswing". It is a term that might be misused more often than it is used correctly.
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Old 10-03-2016, 08:03 PM   #16306
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... so while WR shows up in a formula - that is because WR is your average (expected) result.

High variance / low variance / etc however is not a function of winning/losing/trend.
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Old 10-03-2016, 08:05 PM   #16307
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

And short buying is perhaps higher variance "per buy-in" but it is not higher variance per bb - bb is the correct way to normalize results. Short buying is lower variance. Making the unit variable as "a buy in" is just bad stats.
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Old 10-03-2016, 08:08 PM   #16308
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Originally Posted by Garick View Post
Also, be aware that variance is not only a function of your edge.


I.e. ^ this is using the term variance where "risk of ruin" would have been the correct term
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Old 10-03-2016, 08:14 PM   #16309
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And wiggling the "win rate" around when calculating stdev will barely budge your #s.. that is why it is not important to know a true win rate when calculating an accurate stdev.
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Old 10-03-2016, 08:18 PM   #16310
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
But a lot of people use variance to mean "downswing". It is a term that might be misused more often than it is used correctly.
Of course, because few poker players consider an upswing to be a result of luck instead of our awesome skillz.
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Old 10-03-2016, 08:37 PM   #16311
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OK I guess what I'm really trying to do is find a buy-in + strategy combination with which I can achieve an acceptable (to me) risk of ruin with the smallest possible bankroll whilst still standing a chance of actually winning.


Buy in ~70bb. Seems about the right spot.

FWIW- no one is going to have a formula for your question. All that is available will be anecdotal. This is because no one here (or in live poker period) knows exactly what the precise relationships are between

- WR and buy in size
- Stdev and buy in size

There will be a consensus that stdev goes up with buy in size, and a consensus that WR can go up with buy in size.. but neither relationship is simple or linear nor do we even know the magnitude of the change.

If you don't already have a huge bankroll, then typically you shouldn't be worrying about deep buy ins (just because the deep edge comes with winning experience = bankroll already exists). So you are probably best off buying in something reasonable:
- that is an ~average stack
- that still offers an edge big enough to overcome rake/tips/etc
- that affords you some safety on mistakes (not 1000bb mistakes)

70bb is just as good of a guess as anything else you will hear.
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Old 10-03-2016, 08:40 PM   #16312
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I assume proper short stack play would be higher variance. I'm way more likely to get it in 40-60% at 100bb than 1000bb


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Old 10-03-2016, 08:56 PM   #16313
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I assume proper short stack play would be higher variance. I'm way more likely to get it in 40-60% at 100bb than 1000bb


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So while true, the way to put this in relevant numbers is to say

stdev([0,0,0,0,0,100,100,100,100,100]) = 52.7
10x ^50bb all in for 100bb pot @ 50% equity

stdev([0,0,1000,1000,1000,1000,1000,1000,1000,1000]) = 421.63
10x ^500bb all in for 1000bb pot @ 80% equity

So the latter deep pot is > 8x stdev. You could say it happens less often (very true).. but it is not like the deep stack is not involved in a single hand/single pot in the mean time. (Who do you think calls the short stacks?)

Getting it in more as a short stack is mostly just a function of running out of chips in front of you... Shorter play is not that extremely different that you are putting 50bbs in many many times more often.
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Old 10-03-2016, 09:15 PM   #16314
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And I think the biggest misconception - focusing on variance as a property of all ins. Variance is a part of every hand (including folding UTG for $0). Preflop and Flops probably influence variance more than all in results.

The reason "variance" is associated with all ins is because it is the only opportunity to calculate a precise EV (all decisions and cards are known).. so everyone sees the AIEV line and how far their results are from it - and Voila! all in variance is all we understand and all we think about.
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Old 10-03-2016, 09:29 PM   #16315
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
And I think the biggest misconception - focusing on variance as a property of all ins. Variance is a part of every hand (including folding UTG for $0). Preflop and Flops probably influence variance more than all in results.

The reason "variance" is associated with all ins is because it is the only opportunity to calculate a precise EV (all decisions and cards are known).. so everyone sees the AIEV line and how far their results are from it - and Voila! all in variance is all we understand and all we think about.


+1000 AIEV is a silly stat. Between the hands we are dealt, which opponents get good/bad hands, how the flop/turn/River come, what position we are in when we get hands etc. there is so much untraceable variance. Probably a silly example but, everyone has had that hand that comes like J52 with JJ they check back turn is a 4 and guy check calls, River then comes a 3 goes check check and he flips 55. Like its run good on flop but run bad on turn and River creating a small pot. Meanwhile the person who gets a non A, 6, 5, or 3 on the river wins a huge pot doing nothing differently.


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Old 10-03-2016, 09:52 PM   #16316
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
So while true, the way to put this in relevant numbers is to say

stdev([0,0,0,0,0,100,100,100,100,100]) = 52.7
10x ^50bb all in for 100bb pot @ 50% equity

stdev([0,0,1000,1000,1000,1000,1000,1000,1000,1000]) = 421.63
10x ^500bb all in for 1000bb pot @ 80% equity

So the latter deep pot is > 8x stdev. You could say it happens less often (very true).. but it is not like the deep stack is not involved in a single hand/single pot in the mean time. (Who do you think calls the short stacks?)

Getting it in more as a short stack is mostly just a function of running out of chips in front of you... Shorter play is not that extremely different that you are putting 50bbs in many many times more often.
0s should be -100 and -1000 respectively in you examples.
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Old 10-03-2016, 09:53 PM   #16317
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

When I think of the word variance, I'm just thinking of the noise in my graph. There's all kinds of high frequency fluctuations on a hand by hand basis, and then there are some that look like 30-40 hours periods of up and down, and then some that look like 500 hour swings. There's probably some way to do an FFT and quantify some of that ... but I haven't bothered.

That bakes in all the ways that hands can go poorly or well depending on the runout.
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Old 10-03-2016, 09:58 PM   #16318
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by scrybe View Post
0s should be -100 and -1000 respectively in you examples.


I listed it as bbs received from the pot. Thinking of it as bbs won or lost would still produce the same answer, but it would be
stdev([-50,-50,-50,-50,-50,50,50,50,50,50]) = 52.7

.. same answer
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Old 10-03-2016, 10:04 PM   #16319
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
I listed it as bbs received from the pot. Thinking of it as bbs won or lost would still produce the same answer, but it would be
stdev([-50,-50,-50,-50,-50,50,50,50,50,50]) = 52.7

.. same answer

yup. i thought for some reason you were doing 100bb pots.
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Old 10-03-2016, 10:07 PM   #16320
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yup. i thought for some reason you were doing 100bb pots.
By that I mean 100 and 1kbb stacks. Nevermind
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Old 10-03-2016, 10:10 PM   #16321
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Keep posting Bip!. I cant understand a word you say. I just like seeing your avatar as much as possible.
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Old 10-03-2016, 10:18 PM   #16322
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If Bip!'s avatar had tutored me statistics (ala van wilder) I might actually remember some of this stuff.

Bip!, you know how to calculate an FFT on data that's recorded at varying time intervals? I never did enough signals to learn that.
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Old 10-03-2016, 10:20 PM   #16323
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By that I mean 100 and 1kbb stacks. Nevermind


It was confusing because he originally said "1000bb stacks" but I used 500bb stacks as 1000bb seemed too big to be feasible.
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Old 10-04-2016, 01:19 AM   #16324
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I made $30 in 3.5 hours tonight. Did I run good or bad Bip?
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Old 10-04-2016, 01:42 AM   #16325
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
How can variance mean how far you currently are from your true win rate when people are always talking about how you can almost never know your true win rate?
Yep lots of hypotheticals itt. It a big point that's often made in this thread.



I think short stacking does increase variance due to short stackers paying so much more of their profit to the rake. As far as if the strategy itself contributes... probably. There should be a lot more all ins which would be swingier.


All in ev is a poor measurement, but it's the best one available. Still a good thing to know imo. Didn't really agree with everyone who said it's a worthless Stat to know when it came up a few months ago.
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