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Old 10-02-2016, 08:15 PM   #16276
MikeStarr
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by paratrooper99 View Post
Can you give one example of what advice you have ignored (or style adapted) that has helped you get back to this winrate?
Sure, but I dont think I should it here in this thread.
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Old 10-02-2016, 08:28 PM   #16277
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I've gone on a 25k downswing in 2/5 and almost every good live pro I know has too.
Wowza. I would have quit poker.
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Old 10-02-2016, 08:41 PM   #16278
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Wowza. I would have quit poker.


It was very frustrating, I'm amazed more people posting here haven't had runs like that. It isn't that hard to do. Just get in a couple good games, give action like you should, and run into the top of everyone's range or the bottom of yours every time. Then just never win when you have it.

I am in the middle of sun running right now so can look back without it tilting me haha


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Old 10-02-2016, 08:51 PM   #16279
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Like DGAF posts in his thread, a large portion of pros (and recs too) at any given point in time are going to be those that are running good, so there is a huge selection bias.

Then when they finally run even or bad they just move on to something different and you never see a post about it.
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Old 10-02-2016, 08:58 PM   #16280
ibelieveyouoweme$80k
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by KatoKrazy View Post
Like DGAF posts in his thread, a large portion of pros (and recs too) at any given point in time are going to be those that are running good, so there is a huge selection bias.

Then when they finally run even or bad they just move on to something different and you never see a post about it.
Over my past 377 hours, since July 1, I have won $322.
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Old 10-02-2016, 09:45 PM   #16281
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ibelieveyouoweme$80k View Post
Over my past 377 hours, since July 1, I have won $322.


Yikes. Didn't you have a really good run earlier in the year though? What is your ytd win rate?
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Old 10-02-2016, 09:49 PM   #16282
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Yikes. Didn't you have a really good run earlier in the year though? What is your ytd win rate?
Plus $17,501 in 1,315 hours.
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Old 10-03-2016, 06:49 AM   #16283
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ultimately moving up stakes and bankroll requirements depends more on personal circumstances. It's rare but there's people out there who should skip 1 2 altogether and just jump into 2 5. Usually they have income to replenish their roll if things don't go well and are good enough that they'd be wasting their time at 1 2.

There's others who might have grinded out 100 buys in for 2 5 by playing 1 2 and they still might not be ready skillwise to move up.

Also not everyone has a lot of options. If the only games offered near you are 1 2 or 5 10... well surely you aren't going to Grind out 250 buy ins before taking a shot.

Trying to have a steadfast rule "x buy ins to play this game" is pretty ridiculous because looking at someone's personal circumstances and making a decision that suits them and only them is neither that difficult nor time consuming.
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Old 10-03-2016, 07:20 AM   #16284
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm wondering what you guys think of roll requirements for a short stack strategy as follows:

£1/£2NL 5% rake capped at £10. Soft game, 50% bad regs, 50% awful rec players. Lots of tournament players who bust their tournaments early evening then play cash even though they don't get the differences between the two games.

40bb buy in and top off to stay around 40bb.
10% of BR table limit unless I got there via my first 40bb.
Otherwise I get up and rebuy at 40bb after 2hrs away from tables as per the casino rules.

I'm lucky enough that I don't need to take any living expenses from my roll.

I've played 72 hours this year using this plan starting with a £400 (5 buy ins). Now I have £2,000 of winnings and withdrew my £400 original stake.

I've won in 9 out of 12 sessions with my losses being £2 £20 and £90. However, I have been -£200 maybe twice mid session.

I haven't run particularly well over this 72 hours despite the excellent win rate. I've played 2 million hands online so I know what run good is (and run bad!). This 72 hours live would have been run bad online and have produced a loss. I only won live because the game is so soft.

I play pretty conservatively, letting hands go in most marginal spots and only continuing when I think I'm well ahead. Low profit but low variance is my approach while under rolled.


I want to know your opinions on three things:

How sustainable do you think this plan is? I'm pretty good at managing boredom while short stacked and I get some relief by playing deep at the end of every other session so psychologically I can do it indefinitely. I'm worried that I could still hit a really bad patch and lose multiple 40bb buy ins (like 10+) and whether I'd be motivated enough to stick at it after that. What's the chance of a 10+ 40bb buy in loss in a soft game basically?

How big should I build my roll before withdrawing profits assuming I continue using this plan of 40bb buy ins?

How big should my roll be if I want to start buying in for £400 (200bb table maximum) and open up my game to exploit weak/tight regs as well as just value towning fish?
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Old 10-03-2016, 09:17 AM   #16285
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ibelieveyouoweme$80k View Post
Plus $17,501 in 1,315 hours.
Please tell me this is 1/2.
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Old 10-03-2016, 09:54 AM   #16286
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

In 950 hrs I had one 10bi downswing.


I have now had 2 in the past 100 hrs. Frustrating. But I've still made over $3K since restarting. Perspective.
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Old 10-03-2016, 11:37 AM   #16287
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I will go out on a limb and say that 10 is enough. In 1100 hours Ive never lost more than 4.
At the ~1800 hr mark of my 1/3 NL game (which at the time I was beating for slightly over 9 bb/hr), I had never officially booked a 5 BI downswing ($300 max BI, so $1500). I then went on a ~9.5 BI downswing.

Gifyouplaylongenough,****willhappenG
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Old 10-03-2016, 01:09 PM   #16288
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
At the ~1800 hr mark of my 1/3 NL game (which at the time I was beating for slightly over 9 bb/hr), I had never officially booked a 5 BI downswing ($300 max BI, so $1500). I then went on a ~9.5 BI downswing.

Gifyouplaylongenough,****willhappenG


Geez man, i think you are ready to move up to 2-5. You should have a nearly 50k roll now no? Or perhaps life expenses...
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Old 10-03-2016, 01:21 PM   #16289
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
In 950 hrs I had one 10bi downswing.


I have now had 2 in the past 100 hrs. Frustrating. But I've still made over $3K since restarting. Perspective.

Well this makes me feel better about some of my results. September was a +-5BI yoyo. (**** PLO and RxR)

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
At the ~1800 hr mark of my 1/3 NL game (which at the time I was beating for slightly over 9 bb/hr), I had never officially booked a 5 BI downswing ($300 max BI, so $1500). I then went on a ~9.5 BI downswing.

Gifyouplaylongenough,****willhappenG

Yup. I don't want to continually harp on the "sample size" argument, but this is very true. 100 hrs is nothing, 500 hours can still be variance in either direction, and after 1-2k hours there's no guarantee you've seen everything that can go wrong/right.


I've been operating on about a 10BI roll for quite a while now (I can refresh from life money if I really needed to now) and it's very frustrating playing that way. A couple of bad days and you're stuck in a tough spot. The combination of tapping the roll for a few things and some marginal running has really hurt.

I'd tell a new player to just jump right in with 2-4 BI and get started, no need to wait any longer than that. For a rec player 50BI seems too deep to be realistic, although it makes a lot more sense for a "pro" that's living off winnings.
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Old 10-03-2016, 01:41 PM   #16290
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Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox View Post
Geez man, i think you are ready to move up to 2-5.
Can't remember the last time I saw a 2/5 NL game run in my room; probably been over a year now (although it perhaps runs during times I'm not there, such as later at night).

Gplaysintboththebiggestandsmalleststakesgameinmyro omG
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Old 10-03-2016, 01:51 PM   #16291
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by KatoKrazy View Post
Like DGAF posts in his thread, a large portion of pros (and recs too) at any given point in time are going to be those that are running good, so there is a huge selection bias.

Then when they finally run even or bad they just move on to something different and you never see a post about it.
I'm at a little over 756 hours the past 12 months for $26.4 1 per hour. mostly 1/2.

Had a stretch of 256 hours making 2.99 per hour. Tough game sometimes.

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Old 10-03-2016, 03:35 PM   #16292
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I want to just take the time and thank everyone for thus far keeping this thread civil. I think this thread is going in the right direction. Keep it going guys.
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Old 10-03-2016, 03:44 PM   #16293
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* so tempted *

GtakesafastpitchdownthemiddleoftheplateG
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Old 10-03-2016, 04:00 PM   #16294
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So GG you had one nearly 10BI downswing in 1,800 hours and nothing over 5BI previous to that?

Sounds pretty manageable. How would you see buying in shorter (40bb vs 100bb) affecting the rate at which you experience such a big loss, all else being equal but assuming you play appropriately to your stack size?
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Old 10-03-2016, 04:52 PM   #16295
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer View Post
Trying to have a steadfast rule "x buy ins to play this game" is pretty ridiculous because looking at someone's personal circumstances and making a decision that suits them and only them is neither that difficult nor time consuming.
I agree with this in the way that you mean it, but I would like to add something. I think saying "you need x buy ins for y stake" is ridiculous as well if it us used as a blanket statement for everyone. I think it is important though to have hard fast rules like this on an individual basis. What I mean is that to be successful you need discipline and that entails setting BR requirements for yourself.

After someone has taken everything into consideration they should set hard numbers to reach before moving up, as well as hard numbers for when to move down. It is just so easy to be overconfident when running good and telling yourself that you are ready to move up when you really may not be, as well as convincing yourself to not move down when you may need to. So x buy ins for y stake shouldn't apply to everyone across the board, but each individual should set x buy ins for y stake based on their own play and stick to it rigidly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragequit99 View Post
So GG you had one nearly 10BI downswing in 1,800 hours and nothing over 5BI previous to that?

Sounds pretty manageable. How would you see buying in shorter (40bb vs 100bb) affecting the rate at which you experience such a big loss, all else being equal but assuming you play appropriately to your stack size?
If you are playing with a shorter stack and passing up on marginal but +ev spots (which you stated in a previous post) then your winrate will be lower than if you were playing deeper and not passing up on marginal spots. The higher your winrate, the lower variance you can expect. The lower your winrate, the more variance you should expect.

So to answer your question you should experience these "big losses" more often if you are playing short stacked and passing up on what you see as marginal and high variance spots.

I could be wrong here. Someone please correct me if I am.
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Old 10-03-2016, 05:11 PM   #16296
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You might see more sequences where you lose 5BI in a row by buying in short (higher variance), but that 5BI will cost less in real dollars than losing 5BI at a larger stack size. Buying in for 40bb instead of 100bb would have to cause downswings more than twice as large to be worse. (roughly)
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Old 10-03-2016, 05:17 PM   #16297
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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
You might see more sequences where you lose 5BI in a row by buying in short (higher variance), but that 5BI will cost less in real dollars than losing 5BI at a larger stack size. Buying in for 40bb instead of 100bb would have to cause downswings more than twice as large to be worse. (roughly)
Yeah, I would guess this.

Course, it's all situation dependent. Just cuz you are playing with 100bb in front of you instead of 40bb (I always sit at 100bb, for instance), doesn't necessarily your opponents are sitting with the same in front of them.

GcluelessdownswingnoobG
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Old 10-03-2016, 05:41 PM   #16298
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Ya I don't buy that. Variance has nothing to do with the slope of your line. Saying you'll have higher or lower variance because your winrate is higher or lower doesn't seem right. You'll have more losses if your winrate is lower but that says nothing about the amplitude of that variance. Open folding every hand is zero variance but less effective than any huger variance winning strategy.
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Old 10-03-2016, 06:05 PM   #16299
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I'm not sure I buy it either. But it's come up ITT a few times and people have stubbornly pointed at an equation for variance that has winrate in the denominator. Have had arguments about it and made exactly your point.

I could see the argument for a higher amplitude variation by buying in short and getting into a lot of flippy spots though. Which is what I was thinking in regards to 40bb vs 100bb.
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Old 10-03-2016, 06:45 PM   #16300
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Very few people use the word "variance" to mean how far you are currently from your true win rate. It's mostly used to mean the (mostly negative) swings in your bankroll.
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