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Old 10-01-2016, 11:46 PM   #16251
browni3141
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
50 Buyin rule for BRM is way too conservative...and it is super way too conservative if we are talking about 300 big blinds per buyin.

I guess it isn't too conservative if your normal game is frequently straddled.

BRM should be focused on number of big blinds instead of number of buyins.
This. It seems pretty clear to me that the standard deviation is not directly proportional to buy-in amount. Deeper games definitely have higher variance, but the increase is sub-linear.

That said, as a pro pretty much starting out I don't feel very comfortable with a 6000BB/50 buy-in roll.

My opinion might be different if moving down in stakes was a reasonable option.
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Old 10-02-2016, 12:22 AM   #16252
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30+ buyins ftw. In my expierence it is your buying that matters not BBs
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Old 10-02-2016, 09:12 AM   #16253
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IMO, the amount of buyins you need is directly correlated to how big your edge is over the field of players in whatever stakes you are playing.

There's not a single doubt in my mind that 20 buy ins is way more than enough for me playing 2/5. I will go out on a limb and say that 10 is enough. In 1100 hours Ive never lost more than 4. Now at 5/10 its a different story. My edge is much smaller obviously. I would not even try to make that claim for 5/10.

Someone crushing 1/2 right now playing a low variance game may only need 10 buy ins but moving to 2/5 might need 25 until his skill increases substantially and he adjusts properly to that game.

I'm talking standard 100BB buy in games and Im also talking about how many buyins a person needs to not bust their roll. Not a person who is also withdrawing monthly expenses from his roll.
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Old 10-02-2016, 09:13 AM   #16254
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30+ buyins ftw. In my expierence it is your buying that matters not BBs
With all due respect, you are wrong. Focusing so much on number of buyins gets people to make poor BRM decisions.

Under-rolled players will trick themselves into playing under-rolled because they have "enough" short stack buyins of 40-80bbs apiece.

Over-Rolled players will be passing up on tons of EV that would be available at higher stakes simply because they want 50+ "deep stack buyins" of 200-300bbs apiece before moving up.
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Old 10-02-2016, 09:58 AM   #16255
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Also, be aware that variance is not only a function of your edge. It is also a function of the variance of your opponent's style. The highest variance I ever encountered was in a 1/1 game. My edge was huge, but the game conditions were such that it was usually correct to stack off for 250BBs with a one pair hand. As you can imagine, that led to some wild swings.

Although I averaged over 15BBs/hr in that game, I also had multiple downswings of 1KBB (10 "buy ins" at 100BBs, though I usually bought in for 200BBs) and had one that was 2411BBs, which was over 10 buy ins even considering that I bought in for 200BBs.

So no, 10 buy-ins is not enough for anyone's 1/2 roll, imo. Very bad players tend to increase variance (both positive and negative) by taking very high variance lines. Very high average raise sizes also increase the heck out of variance, as the SPRs get very small, so high variance lines become correct for us. Both of these conditions are common in 1/2. Even players with a huge edge will go on 10+ buy-in downswings from time to time.
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Old 10-02-2016, 10:00 AM   #16256
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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
With all due respect, you are wrong. Focusing so much on number of buyins gets people to make poor BRM decisions.

Under-rolled players will trick themselves into playing under-rolled because they have "enough" short stack buyins of 40-80bbs apiece.

Over-Rolled players will be passing up on tons of EV that would be available at higher stakes simply because they want 50+ "deep stack buyins" of 200-300bbs apiece before moving up.


For those that like to buyin >100bb, buyins have some validity independent of bb. A 2/5 or 5/5 player who buys in for 1k each time can have a different Vol (volatility) profile then a guy who buys in for 400 each time.

Having this argument without a comment on style Vol is also kinda silly to me. Some players are just supremely more volatile than others, even if both are winning. And some high vol players cannot cut their Vol without sacrificing winrate, and possibly all of the winrate depending on a players' skillset.

And moving up is not just a bankroll question. Skill/game condition differences are huge as stakes move up. So someone w 60,000 BBs may not be sacrificing EV by staying down, BR could just be a handy excuse.


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Old 10-02-2016, 10:12 AM   #16257
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Also, be aware that variance is not only a function of your edge. It is also a function of the variance of your opponent's style. The highest variance I ever encountered was in a 1/1 game. My edge was huge, but the game conditions were such that it was usually correct to stack off for 250BBs with a one pair hand. As you can imagine, that led to some wild swings.

Although I averaged over 15BBs/hr in that game, I also had multiple downswings of 1KBB (10 "buy ins" at 100BBs, though I usually bought in for 200BBs) and had one that was 2411BBs, which was over 10 buy ins even considering that I bought in for 200BBs.

So no, 10 buy-ins is not enough for anyone's 1/2 roll, imo. Very bad players tend to increase variance (both positive and negative) by taking very high variance lines. Very high average raise sizes also increase the heck out of variance, as the SPRs get very small, so high variance lines become correct for us. Both of these conditions are common in 1/2. Even players with a huge edge will go on 10+ buy-in downswings from time to time.
Not going to disagree with any of that, but you can easily avoid games like this if you want to (if you are playing a 10BB roll for example). At least if you play if a large room with good table selection.

Just the other day I left a table with insane action. When I asked for a table change the brush said "you want to leave table #X? Everyone is trying to get to that table". Sure it was a hugely +EV game overall but only if you can play in a game like that every day and are willing to risk massive swings. However, since a game that crazy only happens once in a blue moon (at least in the daytime when I normally play) and I know I can make much easier money with lower variance and more consistently on a different table, I moved. Im there to play poker. Not gamble large sums with one pair hands against guys who can have anything from the nuts to nothing.
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Old 10-02-2016, 10:22 AM   #16258
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My winrate went up exponentially when I realized that playing the most profitable style is better than playing "real poker" and that determining the most profitable table/seat/style are poker skills, just as much as "correct" poker plays are.

As for avoiding wild games, when I was playing that 1/1 game, it was literally the only (legal) game in town. I'm not risking my security clearance to play in a raked home-game, which are illegal in Colorado and were the only other games available.

Even if you're talking about a casino, you really can't avoid volatile games at 1/2. They pretty much all have common 6+BB opens and players who play draws very badly, at least at night when I can play. I've played all over the country, and aside from Vegas opens being a bit smaller, they've all fit this profile.
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Old 10-02-2016, 11:36 AM   #16259
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I had a PM conversation on 9/7 where I told a regular 2+2 poster that I was going to stop reading 2+2 as much as I felt I was adjusting my game too much based on things I read here and IMO a lot of advice given here that is accepted as correct is actually pretty bad. I know thats not a popular thing to say, but thats my belief. I took a long hard look at my game and decided I was going back to my style which I have been told again and again wont work. Im winning big hands again a lot of the time pushing all in in spots where Ive been told only a better hand will call. The arrow on the graph points to that exact day.

Notice how the 120hr streak smallish downswing immediately turns around on that exact day. Coincidence? I think not.


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Old 10-02-2016, 11:51 AM   #16260
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How much does your profit/winrate go down when you include tips to the dealer and cocktail waitresses..
Didn't see this. That's all included. I consider tipping to be part of the game.
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Old 10-02-2016, 11:54 AM   #16261
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Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
I had a PM conversation on 9/7 where I told a regular 2+2 poster that I was going to stop reading 2+2 as much as I felt I was adjusting my game too much based on things I read here and IMO a lot of advice given here that is accepted as correct is actually pretty bad. I know thats not a popular thing to say, but thats my belief. I took a long hard look at my game and decided I was going back to my style which I have been told again and again wont work. Im winning big hands again a lot of the time pushing all in in spots where Ive been told only a better hand will call. The arrow on the graph points to that exact day.

Notice how the 120hr streak smallish downswing immediately turns around on that exact day. Coincidence? I think not.


Things that are far more likely than the consensus advice being wrong:

1. Variance
2. You weren't describing the situations well enough.
3. You weren't applying the advice properly (this is nearly unavoidable for everyone).
4. Your player population is different than most who are giving the advice.
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Old 10-02-2016, 11:57 AM   #16262
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That's entirely possible.....not being sarcastic. Being serious
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Old 10-02-2016, 12:00 PM   #16263
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Me too. Glad you're winning more.



Side note: although kind of off topic- I think this is a good example of a situation where a live coach might be really beneficial because the coach would be able to cut through my list above really quickly and get down to the truth. Especially if it was someone with experience in your player pool. Just a thought.

Last edited by spikeraw22; 10-02-2016 at 12:03 PM. Reason: Thought added.
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Old 10-02-2016, 12:52 PM   #16264
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120hr slow down can pretty easily be nothing but variance. But I expect 2-3 are very likely, based on other posters and what I've skimmed of your threads and replies. 4 may also be entirely the case too, which also throws 2 and 3 out of whack


Does anyone here regularly hop the border to play between USA/CAN? How do you track said results?

My tracker doesn't have a field for differing currencies. In the past when I've gone the exchange rate was pretty close to 1:1 and I just logged everything in dollars with a note. Now it's a bit farther off. Converting the BI/CO numbers is easy enough, but the stakes are different too. Probably just going to list it as $1/2 or $1/3 anyway. Thoughts?
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Old 10-02-2016, 01:33 PM   #16265
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120 hrs could be variance of course, but looking back at that time frame myself, I can put my finger on hand after hand where I wouldve made more or lost less by playing my semi unorthodox style that I had gotten away from slowly but surely.

As soon as I adjusted, I instantly started making more money in certain situations by being more passive preflop and more aggro post flop. I was raising preflop in a lot of spots that most 2+2ers would raise (where I used to limp a lot of times) that was causing me to get called when dominated and hands that I dominated had folded preflop. I also used to show up with hands that I should never have in that spot based on my aggro image, but the aggro image came from postflop, not necessarily preflop.
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Old 10-02-2016, 01:46 PM   #16266
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120hr slow down can pretty easily be nothing but variance. But I expect 2-3 are very likely, based on other posters and what I've skimmed of your threads and replies. 4 may also be entirely the case too, which also throws 2 and 3 out of whack


Does anyone here regularly hop the border to play between USA/CAN? How do you track said results?

My tracker doesn't have a field for differing currencies. In the past when I've gone the exchange rate was pretty close to 1:1 and I just logged everything in dollars with a note. Now it's a bit farther off. Converting the BI/CO numbers is easy enough, but the stakes are different too. Probably just going to list it as $1/2 or $1/3 anyway. Thoughts?
I'm sensing an idea for a program to be written here.

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Old 10-02-2016, 01:55 PM   #16267
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120 hrs could be variance of course, but looking back at that time frame myself, I can put my finger on hand after hand where I wouldve made more or lost less by playing my semi unorthodox style that I had gotten away from slowly but surely.

As soon as I adjusted, I instantly started making more money in certain situations by being more passive preflop and more aggro post flop. I was raising preflop in a lot of spots that most 2+2ers would raise (where I used to limp a lot of times) that was causing me to get called when dominated and hands that I dominated had folded preflop. I also used to show up with hands that I should never have in that spot based on my aggro image, but the aggro image came from postflop, not necessarily preflop.
I thought that this was the bankrolls/winrates/finances thread...not a strategy debate thread on the merits of limping versus raising preflop.

You should start a new thread in the forum to address that separate strategy debate and keep this thread uncluttered with derails.
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Old 10-02-2016, 04:24 PM   #16268
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For those that like to buyin >100bb, buyins have some validity independent of bb. A 2/5 or 5/5 player who buys in for 1k each time can have a different Vol (volatility) profile then a guy who buys in for 400 each time.

Having this argument without a comment on style Vol is also kinda silly to me. Some players are just supremely more volatile than others, even if both are winning. And some high vol players cannot cut their Vol without sacrificing winrate, and possibly all of the winrate depending on a players' skillset.

And moving up is not just a bankroll question. Skill/game condition differences are huge as stakes move up. So someone w 60,000 BBs may not be sacrificing EV by staying down, BR could just be a handy excuse.


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I think you are missing the argument. It is not that buy-in amount doesn't matter with respect to volatility, but that increase in BB size correlates much more strongly with increased volatility than increase in buy-in does.

This is the case in my own data. This year over 200 hours of $400-max 1|2 my SD is $216/h. Over 300 hours of $200-max 1|2 my SD is only $181/h.
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Old 10-02-2016, 05:48 PM   #16269
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The latter. I try to think of each "bullet" as no greater than 1/50 of my roll at any point. Most players who know me will rarely if ever call me a nit based on the way I play, but I can tell you right now that I am a huge bankroll nit.
Guys if you aren't already aware (although most prob are, especially any long time pros lurking), just wanted to give heads up that this bankroll advice (min 50 buyins, no matter how many bb's deep you buyin) is way too conservative, it's lazy/oversimplified, and bad for almost everyone's bottom line.

You should be thinking in terms of bb's, not buy ins. 5,000bb's is a responsible BR if you are a semi pro or pro. So if you buyin for 100bb's then 50 buyins would be practicing responsible and sensible bankroll management. But to say you need triple the bankroll if you buyin for 300bb's in your game is ridiculous and based on mostly irrational fear/mental leaks. Or maybe simply just not enough nuanced intelligent thought put into it/expressed here? Sure, always buying in deep 200bb+ you will need a bigger BR, but it's not correlated like that.

HappyLuckBox, have you or anyone you know that is a solid winning player that buys in for 200bb+ ever gone on a downswing at live full ring of just HALF of your criteria? ex: 2/5 player who buys in for $1k gone on a $25k downer, or 5/10 $3k buyin go on $75K downswing.

There are many other little variables that go into how big of a bankroll one needs. But just didn't want (especially the up and comers since it would hurt them the most) seeing this general 50 buyin rule advice and blindly following it. It's not even close to the most intelligent/optimal way to go about it. I think I remember recently seeing JohnnyBuz say he wouldn't play in a 2/5 1k cap game unless he had over $50k also, which is just ridiculous and an important mental leak/hurdle to get over.

There are many, many things that go into being a good poker/gambler/advantage player that have nothing to do with poker skill whatsover.
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Old 10-02-2016, 06:05 PM   #16270
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I've gone on a 25k downswing in 2/5 and almost every good live pro I know has too. Guess I had some 5/10 in there but still have had a 2.5k bb and a 5k bb downswing


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Old 10-02-2016, 06:46 PM   #16271
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Dang, bro. You ride public transit with poker money in your pocket? You are braver than me. Any opsec tips?

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I have done this before as well. Used public transportation for a bit a couple of years ago at night. I am not sure if Uber was popular yet but I definitely didn't know about it.

I just sat as close to the front as possible.
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Old 10-02-2016, 07:31 PM   #16272
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People did try to warn me and I generally disregarded it because I didn't understand what they were talking about. I'm pretty sure whatever they were trying to warn me about though was considerably less severe then the actual variance I exhibited this year. 2015 I beat 1/2 for 35/hr, 2/5 for 68/hr and had a 67% session win rate. 2016 I'm running 25/hr at 1/2 and 2/5 I haven't even bothered to retabulate because it's been -70/hr for months on end with a sub-50% win rate across all limits. I'm up about 30k this year but the negative variance has forced me to completely alter my game plan. I won't even consider playing 2/5 full-time until my BR is >50k and I still think that is too low. Parx 2/5 is probably the toughest game in town and the variance at this 200 BB game cap is absurd.
How can point A and point B both be true?

I don't talk to too many players who don't beat/crush Parx 2/5.
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Old 10-02-2016, 07:51 PM   #16273
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How can point A and point B both be true?

I don't talk to too many players who don't beat/crush Parx 2/5.
Because they are not mutually exclusive.
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Old 10-02-2016, 08:06 PM   #16274
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Originally Posted by IntheNow View Post
Guys if you aren't already aware (although most prob are, especially any long time pros lurking), just wanted to give heads up that this bankroll advice (min 50 buyins, no matter how many bb's deep you buyin) is way too conservative, it's lazy/oversimplified, and bad for almost everyone's bottom line.

You should be thinking in terms of bb's, not buy ins. 5,000bb's is a responsible BR if you are a semi pro or pro. So if you buyin for 100bb's then 50 buyins would be practicing responsible and sensible bankroll management. But to say you need triple the bankroll if you buyin for 300bb's in your game is ridiculous and based on mostly irrational fear/mental leaks. Or maybe simply just not enough nuanced intelligent thought put into it/expressed here? Sure, always buying in deep 200bb+ you will need a bigger BR, but it's not correlated like that.

HappyLuckBox, have you or anyone you know that is a solid winning player that buys in for 200bb+ ever gone on a downswing at live full ring of just HALF of your criteria? ex: 2/5 player who buys in for $1k gone on a $25k downer, or 5/10 $3k buyin go on $75K downswing.

There are many other little variables that go into how big of a bankroll one needs. But just didn't want (especially the up and comers since it would hurt them the most) seeing this general 50 buyin rule advice and blindly following it. It's not even close to the most intelligent/optimal way to go about it. I think I remember recently seeing JohnnyBuz say he wouldn't play in a 2/5 1k cap game unless he had over $50k also, which is just ridiculous and an important mental leak/hurdle to get over.

There are many, many things that go into being a good poker/gambler/advantage player that have nothing to do with poker skill whatsover.

Meh, to each his own. It is the strategy that I have used for a very long time and I personally feel that being overrolled allows you to take super thin lines as well as execute big bluffs you might not normally consider.

I know lots of people who play much closer to the edge, using 10-25 buyins instead, but they often play a little more scared money, passing up small +ev edges. Also, I can't imagine the stress of living and playing off your entire bankroll if it was shorter.

Finally, it would be difficult to play your A+ game if you had over 10% of your bankroll on the table at any point, causing you to probably nit up/play less optimally. Imagine playing 10-20nl (5k cap) and you buyin for 5k but with only a "20 buyin roll" of 100k. Double up once and you have $10k on the table, which is great, but also means you have 10% of your entire bankroll/liferoll on the table.




Again my advice isn't some set locked in stone advice that everybody should follow. Sometimes conditions are such that you should play in a great game, even if you arent religously overrolled for it. Shot taking is a thing. And I will admit my br strategy is definitely on the nitty side, but really there's nothing wrong with taking your gambling career nice and slowly, IMO. My mentality has never been one of looking for the big score. For others, maybe you prefer "gambling" it up with more risk, more power to you.
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Old 10-02-2016, 08:09 PM   #16275
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That's entirely possible.....not being sarcastic. Being serious

Can you give one example of what advice you have ignored (or style adapted) that has helped you get back to this winrate?
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