I didn't realize that was in another subforum. Of course I didn't receive a pm (for either deletion).

I calculate my win rate without promos, tips, or breaks included/excluded. I want it to look as bad as possible to give me extra motivation. After all your win rate doesn't mean anything to anybody besides yourself. All that really counts is total money won. FTR I have had a very solid win rate at every poker variant I have ever played from live to online or SnG/MTT/Cash. I just got back into poker after 1.5 yrs away. I'm starting at 1/2 and $20+/hr seems pretty easily atainable.

I usually add money I took out of my stack to buy booze back into my final count.

I usually have 2 drinks while playing.

I don't count my expenses against my win rate because they are so minimal. Public transport to the casino is effectively free because of my weekly usage. Food, I eat a big meal before I go and I bring my own snacks and I'd still eat if I was at home anyway. I drink their free water and in the last 300 hours, the only money I spent while at the tables was $1.50 for a coffee - it was 8am and I'd arrived with a hangover, I figured it was necessary.

Dang, bro. You ride public transit with poker money in your pocket? You are braver than me. Any opsec tips?

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I live in Australia, the trains are pretty safe. I conceal the poker money and when I cash out, I walk around and check I'm not being followed. I try to take enough basic precautions that I'm not a target of opportunity.

Nothing I do would stop a competent criminal but they're not going to make plans to take off some random low stakes pleb for a few hundo. There are much better targets than me in the casino, like some of the old Chinese degens with a roll of 100s that would choke a mule.

Oh yeah, I always forget that some people leave the casino with more money than they came with...

For win rate calcs , I always went by game, without major non poker promos. And then rando crap I'd add in to my total poker p@l.

So my 1/3 hourly is x. Up to z for 5:10 hourly. My PLO was a negative number. :O


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LOL

Half the time I'm just cashing out the remnants of the stake I brought with me...kind of paranoid if I take the chips with me, that's the day the casino decides on an emergency re-issue.

If I ever use my stack to pay for a massage/food, I re-add it to my total, and I do not include promos in my WR.

The food/massages/drinks do not correlate to your WR, they are a luxury. As for promos, I don't include them because I like to think of your WR as being what you can win, and being able to replicate that. If a place is having some sick promo that accounts for 20% of your total WR, you can't really replicate that sort of success at a different casino -- it's not giving you a true representation of your ability.

As for tips, I don't keep track and I do not subtract that from my WR, as if you were to do that, than you might at well be taking out the rake as well to find your "true WR", but we all pay rake and we all pay tips, so it's pointless to figure out what you'd be making in a world where poker was free.

I prefer understating my WR. I pay for food, booze, massages etc. with chips on the table and just do a simple net buy in/cash out at the end of each session. Haven't hit a high hand in 1000+ hours of poker this year so that's not a concern.

Sooooooooooooooo... instead of trying to read through the thread and make some kind of faq, it'd probably be better to just combine posts and do it as the topics come up again. Feel free to edit this, add info, take out stuff whatever.


Common question: Should I include tips/food paid for with chips/bad beat jackpots etc. when calculating my winrate?

Answer: It's typically assumed that when someone posts a winrate that tips ARE included, and most likely small purchases too. It's safe to assume that no one is eating a 60 dollar meal every session, paying for it with chips and still winning at $85/ hour. Winning a bad beat jackpot, or other forms of rakeback such as high hands etc. are usually not included.

However, when calculating your winrate/hourly for yourself you are free to do whatever you want. If you want to take meticulous notes on how you are doing in your player pool then it's best to not calculate tips and to pay for meals out of pocket. Some players even calculate the rake they pay. That way you know exactly what your winrate is, how much the rake is taking out, and you can compare your winrate to other winrates in different locations.

If you are more concerned with how much you make/spend on trips to the casino then include any expenses that you feel are necessary and include a bad beat jackpot or a high hand etc, but be sure to factor that in if you decide to compare your stats with someone else's. Ultimately your winrate is being recorded for you so feel free to record it in whatever way makes sense for you.

How can std dev for winrate per hour or per 100 hands be calculated when the data (winrate per session) we collect is not done each hour or every 100 hands?

We collect data per session which has varying length (hr or # of hands). How can we calculate std dev in units that we don't measure the data in?

We CAN calculate std dev per session, but I'm not sure what that would tell us since sessions vary in length...

Am I wrong in this?

There was a conversion posted to get standard deviation in hours from varying length sessions but I can't find it with the search. It does change the resulting number a bit and is important if you want accurate statistics.

The general consensus is that we should just use a fixed hands/hr conversion factor. There's some debate about the exact number and if it should be 25 h/hr, or 35 h/hr, but somewhere around 30 is pretty standard. Yes it'll vary from table to table and day to day, but it's not something we can track.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...88&postcount=4

I've seen you talk about your 50 buyin rule a few times before. I have meant to ask you to clarify what you mean, but never got around to it. Are you talking about the more common way that's mentioned and suggesting $50k is sufficient for most 5/10nl games? Or are you saying if you buyin for max at a 5/10 $3k cap game, you would need $150k br? It seems like in another post you made on the subject, you mean the latter...

The latter. I try to think of each "bullet" as no greater than 1/50 of my roll at any point. Most players who know me will rarely if ever call me a nit based on the way I play, but I can tell you right now that I am a huge bankroll nit.

50 Buyin rule for BRM is way too conservative...and it is super way too conservative if we are talking about 300 big blinds per buyin.

I guess it isn't too conservative if your normal game is frequently straddled.

BRM should be focused on number of big blinds instead of number of buyins.

Sure if you play a mostly ABC game then 50 buyins may be conservative, but I would argue even beginners at low stakes are subject to making errors/mistakes/spew and having a large roll will buffer them.
At higher stakes, you need to try to play more balanced, bluffing more, and you will be up against opponents (even fish) who are capable of making moves, which will subject you to much higher variance.

50 buyins allows you to comfortably play your game, making big bluffs when neccessary/optimal without being scared money. Are you really going to be comfortable firing a 3k+ river check raise bluff at 10-20 (say 5k buyin) when your bankroll is only 50k?
Just my 2 cents.

This. It seems pretty clear to me that the standard deviation is not directly proportional to buy-in amount. Deeper games definitely have higher variance, but the increase is sub-linear.

That said, as a pro pretty much starting out I don't feel very comfortable with a 6000BB/50 buy-in roll.

My opinion might be different if moving down in stakes was a reasonable option.

30+ buyins ftw. In my expierence it is your buying that matters not BBs

IMO, the amount of buyins you need is directly correlated to how big your edge is over the field of players in whatever stakes you are playing.

There's not a single doubt in my mind that 20 buy ins is way more than enough for me playing 2/5. I will go out on a limb and say that 10 is enough. In 1100 hours Ive never lost more than 4. Now at 5/10 its a different story. My edge is much smaller obviously. I would not even try to make that claim for 5/10.

Someone crushing 1/2 right now playing a low variance game may only need 10 buy ins but moving to 2/5 might need 25 until his skill increases substantially and he adjusts properly to that game.

I'm talking standard 100BB buy in games and Im also talking about how many buyins a person needs to not bust their roll. Not a person who is also withdrawing monthly expenses from his roll.

With all due respect, you are wrong. Focusing so much on number of buyins gets people to make poor BRM decisions.

Under-rolled players will trick themselves into playing under-rolled because they have "enough" short stack buyins of 40-80bbs apiece.

Over-Rolled players will be passing up on tons of EV that would be available at higher stakes simply because they want 50+ "deep stack buyins" of 200-300bbs apiece before moving up.

Also, be aware that variance is not only a function of your edge. It is also a function of the variance of your opponent's style. The highest variance I ever encountered was in a 1/1 game. My edge was huge, but the game conditions were such that it was usually correct to stack off for 250BBs with a one pair hand. As you can imagine, that led to some wild swings.

Although I averaged over 15BBs/hr in that game, I also had multiple downswings of 1KBB (10 "buy ins" at 100BBs, though I usually bought in for 200BBs) and had one that was 2411BBs, which was over 10 buy ins even considering that I bought in for 200BBs.

So no, 10 buy-ins is not enough for anyone's 1/2 roll, imo. Very bad players tend to increase variance (both positive and negative) by taking very high variance lines. Very high average raise sizes also increase the heck out of variance, as the SPRs get very small, so high variance lines become correct for us. Both of these conditions are common in 1/2. Even players with a huge edge will go on 10+ buy-in downswings from time to time.

For those that like to buyin >100bb, buyins have some validity independent of bb. A 2/5 or 5/5 player who buys in for 1k each time can have a different Vol (volatility) profile then a guy who buys in for 400 each time.

Having this argument without a comment on style Vol is also kinda silly to me. Some players are just supremely more volatile than others, even if both are winning. And some high vol players cannot cut their Vol without sacrificing winrate, and possibly all of the winrate depending on a players' skillset.

And moving up is not just a bankroll question. Skill/game condition differences are huge as stakes move up. So someone w 60,000 BBs may not be sacrificing EV by staying down, BR could just be a handy excuse.


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